National Academies Press: OpenBook
Page i
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2012. Analysis of Existing Data: Prospective Views on Methodological Paradigms. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22837.
×
Page R1
Page ii
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2012. Analysis of Existing Data: Prospective Views on Methodological Paradigms. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22837.
×
Page R2
Page iii
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2012. Analysis of Existing Data: Prospective Views on Methodological Paradigms. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22837.
×
Page R3
Page iv
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2012. Analysis of Existing Data: Prospective Views on Methodological Paradigms. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22837.
×
Page R4
Page v
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2012. Analysis of Existing Data: Prospective Views on Methodological Paradigms. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22837.
×
Page R5
Page vi
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2012. Analysis of Existing Data: Prospective Views on Methodological Paradigms. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22837.
×
Page R6
Page vii
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2012. Analysis of Existing Data: Prospective Views on Methodological Paradigms. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22837.
×
Page R7

Below is the uncorrected machine-read text of this chapter, intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text of each book. Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.

TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD WASHINGTON, D.C. 2012 www.TRB.org The Second S T R A T E G I C H I G H W A Y R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M REPORT S2-S01B-RW-1 Analysis of Existing Data Prospective Views on Methodological Paradigms Paul P. Jovanis, venky shankar, Jonathan aguero-valverde, kun-Feng Wu, and adam greenstein The Thomas D. Larson Pennsylvania Transportation Institute The Pennsylvania State University

Subscriber Categories Highways Safety and Human Factors

SHRP 2 Reports Available by subscription and through the TRB online bookstore: www.TRB.org/bookstore Contact the TRB Business Office: 202-334-3213 More information about SHRP 2: www.TRB.org/SHRP2 SHRP 2 Report S2-S01B-RW-1 ISBN: 978-0-309-12923-7 © 2012 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Copyright Information Authors herein are responsible for the authenticity of their materials and for obtaining written permissions from publishers or persons who own the copy- right to any previously published or copyrighted material used herein. The second Strategic Highway Research Program grants permission to repro- duce material in this publication for classroom and not-for-profit purposes. Per- mission is given with the understanding that none of the material will be used to imply TRB, AASHTO, or FHWA endorsement of a particular product, method, or practice. It is expected that those reproducing material in this document for educational and not-for-profit purposes will give appropriate acknowledgment of the source of any reprinted or reproduced material. For other uses of the material, request permission from SHRP 2. Note: SHRP 2 report numbers convey the program, focus area, project number, and publication format. Report numbers ending in “w” are published as web documents only. Notice The project that is the subject of this report was a part of the second Strategic Highway Research Program, conducted by the Transportation Research Board with the approval of the Governing Board of the National Research Council. The members of the technical committee selected to monitor this project and to review this report were chosen for their special competencies and with regard for appropriate balance. The report was reviewed by the technical committee and accepted for publication according to procedures established and overseen by the Transportation Research Board and approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council. The opinions and conclusions expressed or implied in this report are those of the researchers who performed the research and are not necessarily those of the Transportation Research Board, the National Research Council, or the program sponsors. The Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, the National Research Council, and the sponsors of the second Strategic Highway Research Program do not endorse products or manufacturers. Trade or manufacturers’ names appear herein solely because they are considered essential to the object of the report. The Second Strategic Highway Research Program America’s highway system is critical to meeting the mobility and economic needs of local communities, regions, and the nation. Developments in research and technology—such as advanced materials, communications technology, new data collection technologies, and human factors science—offer a new oppor- tunity to improve the safety and reliability of this important national resource. Breakthrough resolution of significant trans- portation problems, however, requires concentrated resources over a short time frame. Reflecting this need, the second Strategic Highway Research Program (SHRP 2) has an intense, large-scale focus, integrates multiple fields of research and technology, and is fundamentally different from the broad, mission-oriented, discipline-based research programs that have been the mainstay of the highway research industry for half a century. The need for SHRP 2 was identified in TRB Special Report 260: Strategic Highway Research: Saving Lives, Reducing Conges- tion, Improving Quality of Life, published in 2001 and based on a study sponsored by Congress through the Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century (TEA-21). SHRP 2, modeled after the first Strategic Highway Research Program, is a focused, time- constrained, management-driven program designed to comple- ment existing highway research programs. SHRP 2 focuses on applied research in four areas: Safety, to prevent or reduce the severity of highway crashes by understanding driver behavior; Renewal, to address the aging infrastructure through rapid design and construction methods that cause minimal disrup- tions and produce lasting facilities; Reliability, to reduce conges- tion through incident reduction, management, response, and mitigation; and Capacity, to integrate mobility, economic, envi- ronmental, and community needs in the planning and designing of new transportation capacity. SHRP 2 was authorized in August 2005 as part of the Safe, Accountable, Flexible, Efficient Transportation Equity Act: A Legacy for Users (SAFETEA-LU). The program is managed by the Transportation Research Board (TRB) on behalf of the National Research Council (NRC). SHRP 2 is conducted under a memorandum of understanding among the American Associa- tion of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO), the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), and the National Academy of Sciences, parent organization of TRB and NRC. The program provides for competitive, merit-based selection of research contractors; independent research project oversight; and dissemination of research results.

The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. On the authority of the charter granted to it by Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achieve- ments of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, on its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. The Transportation Research Board is one of six major divisions of the National Research Council. The mission of the Transportation Research Board is to provide leadership in transportation innovation and progress through research and information exchange, conducted within a setting that is objective, interdisci- plinary, and multimodal. The Board’s varied activities annually engage about 7,000 engineers, scientists, and other transportation researchers and practitioners from the public and private sectors and academia, all of whom contribute their expertise in the public interest. The program is supported by state transportation departments, federal agencies including the component administrations of the U.S. Department of Transporta- tion, and other organizations and individuals interested in the development of transportation. www.TRB.org www.national-academies.org

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This work was sponsored by the Federal Highway Administration in cooperation with the American Associa- tion of State Highway and Transportation Officials. It was conducted in the second Strategic Highway Research Program (SHRP 2), which is administered by the Transportation Research Board of the National Academies. The project was managed by Charles Fay, Senior Program Officer for SHRP 2 Safety. The research team gratefully acknowledges the support provided by the Virginia Tech Transportation Insti- tute (VTTI) and University of Michigan Transportation Institute (UMRTI) data assembly teams. In particular, the authors thank Charlie Klauer of VTTI and Scott Bogard of UMTRI for providing outstanding support and quick response to data inquiries. SHRP 2 STAFF Ann M. Brach, Director Stephen J. Andrle, Deputy Director Neil J. Pedersen, Deputy Director, Implementation and Communications Kizzy Anderson, Senior Program Assistant, Implementation James Bryant, Senior Program Officer, Renewal Kenneth Campbell, Chief Program Officer, Safety JoAnn Coleman, Senior Program Assistant, Capacity Eduardo Cusicanqui, Finance Officer Walter Diewald, Senior Program Officer, Safety Jerry DiMaggio, Implementation Coordinator Charles Fay, Senior Program Officer, Safety Carol Ford, Senior Program Assistant, Safety Elizabeth Forney, Assistant Editor Jo Allen Gause, Senior Program Officer, Capacity Abdelmename Hedhli, Visiting Professional James Hedlund, Special Consultant, Safety Coordination Ralph Hessian, Visiting Professional Andy Horosko, Special Consultant, Safety Field Data Collection William Hyman, Senior Program Officer, Reliability Linda Mason, Communications Officer Michael Miller, Senior Program Assistant, Reliability Gummada Murthy, Senior Program Officer, Reliability David Plazak, Senior Program Officer, Capacity Monica Starnes, Senior Program Officer, Renewal Noreen Stevenson-Fenwick, Senior Program Assistant, Renewal Charles Taylor, Special Consultant, Renewal Onno Tool, Visiting Professional Dean Trackman, Managing Editor Pat Williams, Administrative Assistant Connie Woldu, Administrative Coordinator Patrick Zelinski, Communications Specialist

A large component of the safety research undertaken in the second Strategic Highway Research Program (SHRP 2) is aimed at reducing the injuries and fatalities that result from highway crashes. Through a naturalistic driving study (NDS) involving more than 3,000 vol- unteer drivers, SHRP 2 expects to learn more about how individual driver behavior interacts with vehicle and roadway characteristics. In anticipation of the large volume of data to be collected during the NDS, several projects were conducted to demonstrate that it is possible to use existing data from previous naturalistic driving studies and data from other sources to further the understanding of the risk factors associated with road crashes. More specifically, the four S01 projects, entitled Development of Analysis Methods Using Recent Data, exam- ined the statistical relationship between surrogate measures of collisions (conflicts, critical incidents, near collisions, and roadside encroachment) and actual collisions. This report presents the results of one of these projects, undertaken by Pennsylvania State University. It documents the second phase of a two-phase project under SHRP 2 Safety Project S01B. The primary objective of this work was to investigate structured modeling paradigms for analysis of naturalistic driving data (NDD). Five research questions were identified and various models (e.g., event-based models and categorical-outcome models) were applied to NDD to determine appropriateness for analysis and suggestions for future analyses. The following were the five research questions: 1. What is the relationship between events (e.g., crashes, near crashes, and incidents) and pre-event maneuvers? What are the contributing driver factors, environmental factors, and other factors? 2. What hierarchical structure, if any, exists in the manner in which these relationships need to be explored? 3. What kind of elucidative evidence emerges from the analysis of roadway departure crashes in terms of Questions 1 and 2? Is the illustrative hierarchy of relationships generalizable to other nonintersection crash types, such as leading vehicle crashes? 4. In terms of elucidative evidence, what types of behavioral correlates emerge? For exam- ple, are attitudinal measurements indicative of revealed behavior in terms of headway maintenance and speed reductions? 5. If elucidative evidence does in fact emerge in terms of attitudinal correlates and how their interactions vary by context, is it plausible to parse out the marginal effects of various context variables on crash risk by suitable research design? This report will provide useful information for analysts of the SHRP 2 NDS data, as well as other naturalistic driving data sets. F O R EWO R D Charles Fay, Senior Program Officer, Safety

C O N T E N T S 1 Executive Summary 1 Background 1 Analysis of VTTI Data 2 Analysis of UMTRI Data 3 Research Hypotheses, Findings, and Implications 9 CHAPTER 1 Introduction 9 Background of Naturalistic Driving Studies 9 Literature Review 13 Summary 14 Chapter 2 Research Approach 14 Overview 14 Analysis of VTTI Data 15 Analysis of UMTRI Data 16 Analysis Plan for VTTI Data 23 Analysis Plan for UMTRI Data 28 Summary 33 Chapter 3 Data Description and Modeling Results 33 VTTI Driver-Based Data and Models 40 VTTI Data: Event-Based Models 49 UMTRI Data: Kinematic Models 56 Cohort-Based Approach 64 Chapter 4 Conclusions, Implications for SHRP 2 Safety Program, and Suggested Research 64 Research Question 1 65 Research Question 2 66 Research Question 3 68 Research Question 4 68 Research Question 5 69 Suggested Research 71 References

Next: Executive Summary »
Analysis of Existing Data: Prospective Views on Methodological Paradigms Get This Book
×
MyNAP members save 10% online.
Login or Register to save!
Download Free PDF

TRB’s second Strategic Highway Research Program (SHRP 2) Report S2-S01B-RW-1: Analysis of Existing Data: Prospective Views on Methodological Paradigms investigates structured modeling paradigms for the analysis of naturalistic driving data.

This report is available only in electronic format.

  1. ×

    Welcome to OpenBook!

    You're looking at OpenBook, NAP.edu's online reading room since 1999. Based on feedback from you, our users, we've made some improvements that make it easier than ever to read thousands of publications on our website.

    Do you want to take a quick tour of the OpenBook's features?

    No Thanks Take a Tour »
  2. ×

    Show this book's table of contents, where you can jump to any chapter by name.

    « Back Next »
  3. ×

    ...or use these buttons to go back to the previous chapter or skip to the next one.

    « Back Next »
  4. ×

    Jump up to the previous page or down to the next one. Also, you can type in a page number and press Enter to go directly to that page in the book.

    « Back Next »
  5. ×

    To search the entire text of this book, type in your search term here and press Enter.

    « Back Next »
  6. ×

    Share a link to this book page on your preferred social network or via email.

    « Back Next »
  7. ×

    View our suggested citation for this chapter.

    « Back Next »
  8. ×

    Ready to take your reading offline? Click here to buy this book in print or download it as a free PDF, if available.

    « Back Next »
Stay Connected!