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63 CHAPTER 6. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS The conclusions and recommendations of the research are as follows: 1. A prediction methodology for vehicle-pedestrian collisions at signalized intersections has been developed. This methodology includes base models for three- and four-leg signalized intersections, presented in Equations (22) and (23), respectively, and AMFs presented in Chapter 4 of this report. 2. The variables whose effects on vehicle-pedestrian collisions are incorporated in the base models include: ⢠total traffic volume expressed as vehicles/day (sum of major- and minor- road ADTs) ⢠ratio of minor-road ADT to major-road ADT ⢠pedestrian volume expressed as pedestrians/day ⢠maximum number of traffic lanes crossed by a pedestrian in any crossing maneuver at the intersection (considering presence of refuge islands) 3. AMFs for vehicle-pedestrian collisions have been developed for the following variables: ⢠presence of bus stops within 300 m (1,000 ft) of the intersection ⢠presence of schools (either public or private) within 300 m (1,000 ft) of the intersection ⢠number of alcohol sales establishments within 300 m (1,000 ft) of the intersection 4. Daily pedestrian crossing volume has a statistically significant relationship to vehicle-pedestrian collisions at signalized intersections. 5. Vehicle volumes are also statistically significant predictors of vehicle-pedestrian collisions at signalized intersections. In particular, vehicle-pedestrian collision frequency is highest when the ratio of minor-road traffic volume to major-road traffic volume is highest. 6. The maximum number of lanes crossed by a pedestrian in any crossing maneuver at a signalized intersection (considering the presence of refuge islands) is a statistically significant predictor of the frequency of vehicle-pedestrian collisions, with higher collision frequencies at intersections where more lanes must be crossed. 7. The prediction methodology for vehicle-pedestrian collisions at signalized intersections has been incorporated in a fourth draft of the HSM Chapter 12 (urban and suburban arterials) presented in Appendix A of this report. This draft should be considered in NCHRP Project 17-36 for inclusion in the HSM.
64 8. Further research to extend and improve the pedestrian safety prediction methodology for signalized intersections presented in this report is recommended. In particular, it would be desirable to quantify the effect on safety of providing pedestrian signals. The effects on pedestrian safety of signal timing and right- turn-on-red operation which appear in the literature to be small or inconclusive should be clarified. 9. The pedestrian safety prediction methodology should be extended to address unsignalized intersections and roadway segments. Such research will require either extensive databases that contain pedestrian volume data or the development of models to estimate pedestrian volumes from land-use and demographic data.