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1 CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION BACKGROUND Based on limited available research, there is believed to be a strong, but unquantified, relationship between pedestrian/motor vehicle crashes and site specific characteristics. Models are currently not available that can help predict pedestrian crashes based on site-specific conditions and operational characteristics of a roadway. A coordinated effort is underway to develop a Highway Safety Manual (HSM) for use in making quantitative estimates of the safety performance of specific highway types and quantitative estimates of proposed improvements to specific highway types. The highway types being addressed in the first edition of the HSM are rural two-lane highways, rural multilane highways, and urban and suburban arterials. Explicit consideration of pedestrian safety on urban and suburban arterials is considered critical to implementation of the first edition of the HSM. An HSM methodology to make safety predictions for urban and suburban arterials was developed in Phases I and II of NCHRP Project 17-26 for potential publication as HSM Chapter 10. The Project 17-26 database is most suited for modeling motor vehicle crashes on roadway segments and at intersections. Models were also developed in Phases I and II of Project 17-26 that estimate pedestrian safety based on average pedestrian crash frequency for roadway segments and intersections. However, these models are not sensitive to site-specific conditions that influence pedestrian crashes. Thus, the models in the current draft of HSM Chapter 10 will not address the needs for determining site-specific pedestrian safety effects or for evaluating the site-specific effects of proposed projects intended to improve pedestrian safety. There is a need to include more comprehensive pedestrian safety prediction models for urban and suburban arterials in the first edition of the HSM. The research presented in this report has been conducted to develop improved pedestrian safety prediction models for use in the HSM. RESEARCH OBJECTIVES AND SCOPE The objective of the work under Phase III of the contract for Project 17-26, as presented in this report, is to develop a methodology for quantifying the pedestrian safety effects related to existing site characteristics and/or proposed improvements on urban and suburban arterials. The scope of this new work is similar to the scope of the work in Phases I and II of Project 17-26, except that the new work specifically addresses pedestrian safety. The pedestrian safety prediction methodology has been developed to function as part of the overall safety prediction methodology for urban and suburban arterials being developed in Project 17-26. Thus, the comprehensive methodology will combine predicted values for nonpedestrian crashes based
2 on the methodology developed in Phases I and II of Project 17-26 and predicted values for pedestrian crashes based on the methodology presented in this report. The scope of the Phase III pedestrian safety methodology includes signalized intersections and roadway segments between intersections, but does not include unsignalized intersections. Pedestrian safety at unsignalized intersections will be addressed with the methodology developed in Phases I and II. The end product of the Phase III work will be prepared in a form compatible with the urban and suburban arterial safety prediction methodology and appropriate for incorporation in the Highway Safety Manual. ORGANIZATION OF THIS REPORT This report presents an overview of the work conducted in Phase III of this research. The remainder of this report is organized as follows. Chapter 2 summarizes results of completed and ongoing research in pedestrian safety. Chapter 3 describes the pedestrian safety databases assembled for use in the research. Chapter 4 presents results of pedestrian safety modeling. Chapter 5 summarizes the recommended pedestrian safety prediction methodology for application in HSM Chapter 12. Chapter 6 presents the conclusions and recommendations of this research. Chapter 7 presents a list of references cited in this report. Appendix A presents a fourth draft of HSM Chapter 12 incorporating the pedestrian safety prediction methodology (formerly designed as HSM Chapter 10).
