National Academies Press: OpenBook

Airport Aviation Activity Forecasting (2007)

Chapter: Front Matter

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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2007. Airport Aviation Activity Forecasting. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23192.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2007. Airport Aviation Activity Forecasting. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23192.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2007. Airport Aviation Activity Forecasting. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23192.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2007. Airport Aviation Activity Forecasting. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23192.
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TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD WASHINGTON, D.C. 2007 www.TRB.org A I R P O R T C O O P E R A T I V E R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M ACRP SYNTHESIS 2 Research Sponsored by the Federal Aviation Administration SUBJECT AREAS Aviation and Planning and Administration Airport Aviation Activity Forecasting A Synthesis of Airport Practice CONSULTANT WILLIAM SPITZ and RICHARD GOLASZEWSKI GRA Inc. Jenkintown, Pennsylvania

AIRPORT COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM Airports are vital national resources. They serve a key role in transportation of people and goods and in regional, national, and international commerce. They are where the nation’s aviation sys- tem connects with other modes of transportation and where federal responsibility for managing and regulating air traffic operations intersects with the role of state and local governments that own and operate most airports. Research is necessary to solve common oper- ating problems, to adapt appropriate new technologies from other industries, and to introduce innovations into the airport industry. The Airport Cooperative Research Program (ACRP) serves as one of the principal means by which the airport industry can develop innovative near-term solutions to meet demands placed on it. The need for ACRP was identified in TRB Special Report 272: Airport Research Needs: Cooperative Solutions in 2003, based on a study sponsored by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The ACRP carries out applied research on problems that are shared by airport operating agencies and are not being adequately addressed by existing federal research programs. It is modeled after the successful National Cooperative Highway Research Program and Transit Cooperative Research Program. The ACRP undertakes research and other technical activities in a variety of airport subject areas, including design, construction, maintenance, operations, safety, security, policy, planning, human resources, and adminis- tration. The ACRP provides a forum where airport operators can cooperatively address common operational problems. The ACRP was authorized in December 2003 as part of the Vision 100-Century of Aviation Reauthorization Act. The primary participants in the ACRP are (1) an independent governing board, the ACRP Oversight Committee (AOC), appointed by the Secretary of the U.S. Department of Transportation with representation from airport operating agencies, other stakeholders, and relevant indus- try organizations such as the Airports Council International–North America (ACI–NA), the American Association of Airport Execu- tives (AAAE), the National Association of State Aviation Officials (NASAO), and the Air Transport Association (ATA) as vital links to the airport community; (2) the TRB as program manager and sec- retariat for the governing board; and (3) the FAA as program spon- sor. In October 2005, the FAA executed a contract with the National Academies formally initiating the program. The ACRP benefits from the cooperation and participation of air- port professionals, air carriers, shippers, state and local government officials, equipment and service suppliers, other airport users, and research organizations. Each of these participants has different interests and responsibilities, and each is an integral part of this cooperative research effort. Research problem statements for the ACRP are solicited period- ically but may be submitted to the TRB by anyone at any time. It is the responsibility of the AOC to formulate the research program by identifying the highest priority projects and defining funding levels and expected products. Once selected, each ACRP project is assigned to an expert panel, appointed by the TRB. Panels include experienced practitioners and research specialists; heavy emphasis is placed on including airport professionals, the intended users of the research products. The panels prepare project statements (requests for proposals), select contractors, and provide technical guidance and counsel throughout the life of the project. The process for developing research problem statements and selecting research agencies has been used by TRB in managing coop- erative research programs since 1962. As in other TRB activities, ACRP project panels serve voluntarily without compensation. Primary emphasis is placed on disseminating ACRP results to the intended end-users of the research: airport operating agencies, service providers, and suppliers. The ACRP produces a series of research reports for use by airport operators, local agencies, the FAA, and other interested parties, and industry associations may arrange for work- shops, training aids, field visits, and other activities to ensure that results are implemented by airport-industry practitioners. ACRP SYNTHESIS 2 Project 11-03, Topic S03-01 ISSN 1935-9187 ISBN 978-0-309-09782-6 Library of Congress Control Number 2007923929 © 2007 Transportation Research Board COPYRIGHT PERMISSION Authors herein are responsible for the authenticity of their materials and for obtaining written permissions from publishers or persons who own the copyright to any previously published or copyrighted material used herein. Cooperative Research Programs (CRP) grants permission to reproduce material in this publication for classroom and not-for-profit purposes. Permission is given with the understanding that none of the material will be used to imply TRB or FAA endorsement of a particular product, method, or practice. It is expected that those reproducing the material in this document for educational and not-for-profit uses will give appropriate acknowledgment of the source of any reprinted or reproduced material. For other uses of the material, request permission from CRP. NOTICE The project that is the subject of this report was a part of the Airport Cooperative Research Program conducted by the Transportation Research Board with the approval of the Governing Board of the National Research Council. Such approval reflects the Governing Board’s judgment that the project concerned is appropriate with respect to both the purposes and resources of the National Research Council. The members of the technical advisory panel selected to monitor this project and to review this report were chosen for recognized scholarly competence and with due consideration for the balance of disciplines appropriate to the project. The opinions and conclusions expressed or implied are those of the research agency that performed the research, and while they have been accepted as appropriate by the technical panel, they are not necessarily those of the Transportation Research Board, the National Research Council, or the Federal Aviation Administration of the U.S. Department of Transportation. Each report is reviewed and accepted for publication by the technical panel according to procedures established and monitored by the Transportation Research Board Executive Committee and the Governing Board of the National Research Council. The Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, the National Research Council, and the Federal Aviation Administration (sponsor of the Airport Cooperative Research Program) do not endorse products or manufacturers. Trade or manufacturers’ names appear herein solely because they are considered essential to the clarity and completeness of the project reporting. Published reports of the AIRPORT COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM are available from: Transportation Research Board Business Office 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 and can be ordered through the Internet at http://www.national-academies.org/trb/bookstore Printed in the United States of America

The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished schol- ars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. On the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and techni- cal matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Acad- emy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achieve- ments of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, on its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Acad- emy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both the Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. William A. Wulf are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. The Transportation Research Board is a division of the National Research Council, which serves the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering. The Board’s mission is to promote innovation and progress in transportation through research. In an objective and interdisciplinary setting, the Board facilitates the sharing of information on transportation practice and policy by researchers and practitioners; stimulates research and offers research management services that promote technical excellence; provides expert advice on transportation policy and programs; and disseminates research results broadly and encourages their implementation. The Board’s varied activities annually engage more than 5,000 engineers, scientists, and other transportation researchers and practitioners from the public and private sectors and academia, all of whom contribute their expertise in the public interest. The program is supported by state transportation departments, federal agencies including the component administrations of the U.S. Department of Transportation, and other organizations and individuals interested in the development of transportation. www.TRB.org www.national-academies.org The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished schol- ars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. On the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and techni- cal matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Acad- emy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achieve- ments of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, on its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Acad- emy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both the Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. William A. Wulf are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. The Transportation Research Board is a division of the National Research Council, which serves the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering. The Board’s mission is to promote innovation and progress in transportation through research. In an objective and interdisciplinary setting, the Board facilitates the sharing of information on transportation practice and policy by researchers and practitioners; stimulates research and offers research management services that promote technical excellence; provides expert advice on transportation policy and programs; and disseminates research results broadly and encourages their implementation. The Board’s varied activities annually engage more than 5,000 engineers, scientists, and other transportation researchers and practitioners from the public and private sectors and academia, all of whom contribute their expertise in the public interest. The program is supported by state transportation departments, federal agencies including the component administrations of the U.S. Department of Transportation, and other organizations and individuals interested in the development of transportation. www.TRB.org www.national-academies.org

ACRP COMMITTEE FOR PROJECT 11-03 CHAIR BURR STEWART Port of Seattle MEMBERS GARY C. CATHEY California Department of Transportation KEVIN C. DOLLIOLE Lambert–St. Louis International Airport BERTA FERNANDEZ Landrum & Brown JULIE KENFIELD Carter & Burgess, Inc. CAROLYN MOTZ Hagerstown Regional Airport FAA LIAISON LORI LEHNARD ACI–NORTH AMERICA LIAISON RICHARD MARCHI TRB LIAISON CHRISTINE GERENCHER COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAMS STAFF ROBERT J. REILLY, Director, Cooperative Research Programs CHRISTOPHER W. JENKS, Manager, ACRP EILEEN P. DELANEY, Director of Publications ACRP SYNTHESIS STAFF STEPHEN R. GODWIN, Director for Studies and Special Programs JON WILLIAMS, Manager, Synthesis Studies GAIL STABA, Senior Program Officer DON TIPPMAN, Editor CHERYL KEITH, Senior Program Assistant TOPIC PANEL GARY C. CATHEY, California Department of Transportation KEVIN C. DOLLIOLE, Lambert–St. Louis International Airport BERTA FERNANDEZ, Landrum & Brown CHRISTINE GERENCHER, Transportation Research Board JULIE KENFIELD, Carter & Burgess, Inc. CAROLYN MOTZ, Hagerstown Regional Airport BURR STEWART, Port of Seattle LORI LEHNARD, Federal Aviation Administration (Liaison) RICHARD MARCHI, Airports Council International–North America (Liaison)

Airport administrators, engineers, and researchers often face problems for which infor- mation already exists, either in documented form or as undocumented experience and practice. This information may be fragmented, scattered, and unevaluated. As a conse- quence, full knowledge of what has been learned about a problem may not be brought to bear on its solution. Costly research findings may go unused, valuable experience may be overlooked, and due consideration may not be given to recommended practices for solving or alleviating the problem. There is information on nearly every subject of concern to the airport industry. Much of it derives from research or from the work of practitioners faced with problems in their day-to-day work. To provide a systematic means for assembling and evaluating such useful information and to make it available to the entire airport community, the Airport Cooperative Research Program authorized the Transportation Research Board to undertake a continuing project. This project, ACRP Project 11-03, “Synthesis of Information Re- lated to Airport Practices,” searches out and synthesizes useful knowledge from all available sources and prepares concise, documented reports on specific topics. Reports from this endeavor constitute an ACRP report series, Synthesis of Airport Practice. This synthesis series reports on current knowledge and practice, in a compact format, without the detailed directions usually found in handbooks or design manuals. Each report in the series provides a compendium of the best knowledge available on those measures found to be the most successful in resolving specific problems. FOREWORD By Staff Transportation Research Board This synthesis reviews current practices and methods in airport activity forecasting in the United States. The study addresses how airport forecasts are used and identifies com- mon aviation metrics, aviation data sources, issues in data collection and preparation, and special data issues at nontowered airports. It includes an overview and discussion of available forecasting methods, including the primary statistical methods; market share analysis; econometric modeling; and time series modeling. The report focuses on ap- propriate forecasting methods, providing examples of actual airport forecasting studies. Evaluation of forecasts is also provided, including assessments of forecast uncertainty, accuracy, issues of optimism bias, and options for resolving differences when multiple forecast are available. This synthesis reviews academic and professional literature on forecasting, as well as airport master plans, state airport system plans, and other sources of information showing how forecasts of aviation activity are produced. William Spitz and Richard Golaszewski, GRA Inc., Jenkintown, Pennsylvania, collected and synthesized the information and wrote the report. The members of the topic panel are acknowledged on the preceding page. This synthesis is an immediately useful document that records the practices that were acceptable within the limitations of the knowledge avail- able at the time of its preparation. As progress in research and practice continues, new knowledge will be added to that now at hand. PREFACE

CONTENTS 1 SUMMARY 3 CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION Background, 3 Forecasting Methods, 3 Forecasting Under FAA Guidance, 4 Roadmap for Analysis, 6 7 CHAPTER TWO INFORMATION AND DATA COLLECTION Uses of Forecasts, 7 Metrics, 8 Aviation Data Sources, 9 Data Collection and Preparation, 12 Data Issues at Nontowered Airports, 13 Drivers of Airport Aviation Activity, 13 18 CHAPTER THREE AIRPORT ACTIVITY FORECASTING METHODS Overview of Available Methods, 18 Market Share Forecasting, 19 Econometric Modeling, 19 Time Series Modeling, 20 Simulation Modeling, 21 Selection of Appropriate Method, 22 Selected Examples of Forecasting Methods in Practice, 23 26 CHAPTER FOUR EVALUATING FORECASTS Assessing Uncertainty in Forecasts, 26 Assessing Forecast Accuracy, 26 Issues of Optimism Bias, 27 Competing Forecasts and Options for Resolution of Differences, 27 29 CHAPTER FIVE CONCLUSIONS AND SUGGESTIONS FOR RESEARCH 30 REFERENCES 32 ACRONYMS

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TRB’s Airport Cooperative Research Program (ACRP) Synthesis 2: Airport Aviation Activity Forecasting examines how airport forecasts are used and identifies common aviation metrics, aviation data sources, issues in data collection and preparation, and special data issues at nontowered airports. The report also explores available forecasting methods, including the primary statistical methods; market share analysis; econometric modeling; and time series modeling. In addition the report reviews forecast uncertainty, accuracy, issues of optimism bias, and options for resolving differences when multiple forecast are available.

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