Climate Change Adaptation Planning: Risk Assessment for Airports (2015)

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A I R P O R T C O O P E R A T I V E R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M ACRP REPORT 147 TRANSPORTAT ION RESEARCH BOARD WASHINGTON, D.C. 2015 www.TRB.org Research sponsored by the Federal Aviation Administration Subscriber Categories Aviation • Environment • Planning and Forecasting Climate Change Adaptation Planning: Risk Assessment for Airports Dewberry Fairfax, Virginia i n a s s o c i a t i o n w i t h Gresham, Smith and Partners Columbus, Ohio GCR Inc. New Orleans, Louisiana Richard Marchi Washington, D.C.

AIRPORT COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM Airports are vital national resources. They serve a key role in trans- portation of people and goods and in regional, national, and interna- tional commerce. They are where the nation’s aviation system connects with other modes of transportation and where federal responsibility for managing and regulating air traffic operations intersects with the role of state and local governments that own and operate most airports. Research is necessary to solve common operating problems, to adapt appropriate new technologies from other industries, and to introduce innovations into the airport industry. The Airport Cooperative Research Program (ACRP) serves as one of the principal means by which the airport industry can develop innovative near-term solutions to meet demands placed on it. The need for ACRP was identified in TRB Special Report 272: Airport Research Needs: Cooperative Solutions in 2003, based on a study spon- sored by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). ACRP carries out applied research on problems that are shared by airport operating agen- cies and not being adequately addressed by existing federal research programs. ACRP is modeled after the successful National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) and Transit Cooperative Research Program (TCRP). ACRP undertakes research and other technical activi- ties in various airport subject areas, including design, construction, legal, maintenance, operations, safety, policy, planning, human resources, and administration. ACRP provides a forum where airport operators can cooperatively address common operational problems. ACRP was authorized in December 2003 as part of the Vision 100— Century of Aviation Reauthorization Act. The primary participants in the ACRP are (1) an independent governing board, the ACRP Oversight Committee (AOC), appointed by the Secretary of the U.S. Department of Transportation with representation from airport operating agencies, other stakeholders, and relevant industry organizations such as the Airports Council International-North America (ACI-NA), the American Associa- tion of Airport Executives (AAAE), the National Association of State Aviation Officials (NASAO), Airlines for America (A4A), and the Airport Consultants Council (ACC) as vital links to the airport community; (2) TRB as program manager and secretariat for the governing board; and (3) the FAA as program sponsor. In October 2005, the FAA executed a contract with the National Academy of Sciences formally initiating the program. ACRP benefits from the cooperation and participation of airport professionals, air carriers, shippers, state and local government officials, equipment and service suppliers, other airport users, and research organi- zations. Each of these participants has different interests and responsibili- ties, and each is an integral part of this cooperative research effort. Research problem statements for ACRP are solicited periodically but may be submitted to TRB by anyone at any time. It is the responsibility of the AOC to formulate the research program by identifying the highest priority projects and defining funding levels and expected products. Once selected, each ACRP project is assigned to an expert panel appointed by TRB. Panels include experienced practitioners and research specialists; heavy emphasis is placed on including airport professionals, the intended users of the research products. The panels prepare project statements (requests for proposals), select contractors, and provide technical guidance and counsel throughout the life of the project. The process for developing research problem statements and selecting research agencies has been used by TRB in managing coop- erative research programs since 1962. As in other TRB activities, ACRP project panels serve voluntarily without compensation. Primary emphasis is placed on disseminating ACRP results to the intended users of the research: airport operating agencies, service pro- viders, and academic institutions. ACRP produces a series of research reports for use by airport operators, local agencies, the FAA, and other interested parties; industry associations may arrange for workshops, training aids, field visits, webinars, and other activities to ensure that results are implemented by airport industry practitioners. ACRP REPORT 147 Project 02-40 ISSN 1935-9802 ISBN 978-0-309-37487-3 Library of Congress Control Number 2015953107 © 2015 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. COPYRIGHT INFORMATION Authors herein are responsible for the authenticity of their materials and for obtaining written permissions from publishers or persons who own the copyright to any previously published or copyrighted material used herein. Cooperative Research Programs (CRP) grants permission to reproduce material in this publication for classroom and not-for-profit purposes. Permission is given with the understanding that none of the material will be used to imply TRB, AASHTO, FAA, FHWA, FMCSA, FRA, FTA, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Research and Technology, PHMSA, or TDC endorsement of a particular product, method, or practice. It is expected that those reproducing the material in this document for educational and not-for-profit uses will give appropriate acknowledgment of the source of any reprinted or reproduced material. For other uses of the material, request permission from CRP. NOTICE The report was reviewed by the technical panel and accepted for publication according to procedures established and overseen by the Transportation Research Board and approved by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. The opinions and conclusions expressed or implied in this report are those of the researchers who performed the research and are not necessarily those of the Transportation Research Board; the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine; or the program sponsors. The Transportation Research Board; the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine; and the sponsors of the Airport Cooperative Research Program do not endorse products or manufacturers. Trade or manufacturers’ names appear herein solely because they are considered essential to the object of the report. Cover photos: top image courtesy of Construction Management Division, Port Authority of New York and New Jersey; bottom image courtesy of Port Authority of New York and New Jersey. Published reports of the AIRPORT COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM are available from Transportation Research Board Business Office 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 and can be ordered through the Internet by going to http://www.national-academies.org and then searching for TRB Printed in the United States of America

The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, non- governmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., is president. The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president. The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine. Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.national-academies.org. The Transportation Research Board is one of seven major programs of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. The mission of the Transportation Research Board is to increase the benefits that transportation contributes to society by providing leadership in transportation innovation and progress through research and information exchange, conducted within a setting that is objective, interdisciplinary, and multimodal. The Board’s varied activities annually engage about 7,000 engineers, scientists, and other transportation researchers and practitioners from the public and private sectors and academia, all of whom contribute their expertise in the public interest. The program is supported by state transportation departments, federal agencies including the component administrations of the U.S. Department of Transportation, and other organizations and individuals interested in the development of transportation. Learn more about the Transportation Research Board at www.TRB.org.

C O O P E R A T I V E R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M S CRP STAFF FOR ACRP REPORT 147 Christopher W. Jenks, Director, Cooperative Research Programs Michael R. Salamone, ACRP Manager Joseph J. Brown-Snell, Program Associate Eileen P. Delaney, Director of Publications Scott E. Hitchcock, Editor ACRP PROJECT 02-40 PANEL Field of Environment Derek R. Gray, Toronto Pearson International Airport, Toronto, ON (Chair) Daniel P. Bartholomew, Reno-Tahoe Airport Authority, Reno, NV Susanne DesRoches, The Port Authority of NY & NJ, New York, NY Mary E. Eagan, Harris Miller Miller & Hanson, Inc., Burlington, MA Erin L. Heitkamp, Wenck Associates, Woodbury, MN Philip A. Ralston, Port of Portland (OR), Portland, OR Thomas Cuddy, FAA Liaison Tim A. Pohle, Airlines for America Liaison

ACRP Report 147: Climate Change Adaptation Planning: Risk Assessment for Airports pro- vides a guidebook to help airport practitioners understand the specific impacts climate change may have on their airport, to develop adaptation actions, and to incorporate those actions into the airport’s planning processes. This guidebook first helps practitioners under- stand their airport’s climate change risks then guides them through a variety of mitigation scenarios and examples. Accompanying the guidebook, an electronic assessment tool called Airport Climate Risk Operational Screening (ACROS) was developed to help airports ask the question, “Within the entire airport, what’s most at risk to projected climate changes?” The ACROS tool uses a formula to compute an estimated level of risk for assets and opera- tions at the airport. In addition, the research team used the most recent information avail- able from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). These airport-specific risks are then ranked to provide an enterprise-level estimate of the relative risk posed by each asset and operation. The ACROS tool is a streamlined way to approach risk screening for an entire airport. This guidebook will be of interest to a wide range of airport practitioners, including landside planners, utilities managers, operations and maintenance personnel, and senior management staff. Under ACRP Project 02-40, a research team led by Dewberry began with a review of literature and current practices recommended by organizations inside and outside of the airport industry. To improve understanding of the connections between climate and air- port operations, the research team worked with climate adaptation specialists to draw from current research and apply the results directly to the aviation industry, bridging the gap that exists between climate science and practice. Generally, airports are well equipped to respond to daily fluctuations in weather; however, significant changes to climate (average atmospheric conditions over time) can have serious, negative effects on airport operation and infrastructure. As with many other factors affecting airports, changing climate has the potential to be costly and disruptive; however, risk assessment and planning can mitigate those effects. This guidebook and the ACROS tool, which were refined based on comments from the teams of airport staff who participated in the case study process, are the culmina- tion of those efforts. The ACROS tool is available on the accompanying CD (CRP-CD-175) or for download from the TRB website (www.trb.org) by searching for “ACRP Report 147.” F O R E W O R D By Michael R. Salamone Staff Officer Transportation Research Board

P A R T I Introduction and Adaptation Framework 3 Chapter 1 Introduction and Purpose 3 1.1 From Flexibility to Resiliency: The Case for Climate Change Adaptation 4 1.2 Intended Use of the ACROS Tool 5 1.3 How to Use this Guidebook 6 Chapter 2 Adaptation Framework 6 2.1 Components of the Climate Change Adaptation Planning Process 6 2.2 Role of the ACROS Tool in the Climate Change Adaptation Planning Process 8 Chapter 3 Initiating the Adaptation Planning Process 8 3.1 Establishing a Stakeholder Advisory Committee 8 3.1.1 The Core Advisory Committee 8 3.1.2 Other Stakeholders Inside and Outside the Airport 9 3.2 Setting Climate Resilience Goals 9 3.2.1 Operational Goals 9 3.2.2 Communication and Awareness Goals 10 3.2.3 How Goals May Inform Priorities 10 3.3 Identifying the Audience and Destination for the Adaptation Plan and Related Work Products P A R T I I A Primer on Climate Change and Uncertainty for the Airport Context 13 Chapter 4 Understanding Climate Change’s Impact on Airports 13 4.1 Existing Climate and Weather-Related Events 13 4.2 National Climate Change Projections 13 4.2.1 How Might Climate Change in the Future? 14 4.2.2 Choosing Climate Vectors and Future Projection 14 4.2.3 What Is a GCM? 16 4.3 Atmospheric Climate Vectors 16 4.4 Hot Days: Number of Days ≥ 90°F 17 4.5 Frost Days: Number of Days with Low Temperatures ≤ 32°F 17 4.6 Cooling Degree Days 17 4.7 Storm Days 19 4.8 Maximum 5-Day Rainfall 19 4.9 Other Climate Vectors 20 4.10 Sea Level Rise C O N T E N T S

23 Chapter 5 Managing Uncertainty When Planning Based on Projections 23 5.1 A Brief Note on Uncertainty 24 5.2 Airport Sources of Uncertainty (ACRP Report 76) 24 5.3 Climate Model Sources of Uncertainty 24 5.3.1 Uncertainty from the Earth System 25 5.3.2 Uncertainty from Models 25 5.3.3 How This Project Considers Climate Uncertainty 27 Chapter 6 Develop Adaptation Options Based on Potential Vulnerabilities 27 6.1 Assess Baseline Climate and Projected Climate Changes 28 6.2 Identify Critical Assets and Operations 28 6.2.1 Inventory Airport Assets and Operations 28 6.2.2 Critical Assets and Operations 29 6.3 Inventory Asset and Operational Vulnerabilities 29 6.3.1 Asset Condition 29 6.3.2 Asset Vulnerabilities to Current Conditions 30 6.4 Prioritize Risks and Incorporate into Stand-Alone or Mainstreamed Documents 30 6.4.1 Estimate-Level Risk Ranking 31 6.4.2 Develop Resilience-Promoting Adaptation Strategies 33 6.5 Refine and Monitor 33 6.5.1 Climate Information: Update as New Data, Models, and Higher Resolution Information Become Available 34 6.5.2 Criticality and Vulnerability: Update and Refine 35 6.5.3 Activities: Monitor and Revise on a 3–5 Year Time Scale or As Needed P A R T I I I The User Guide 39 Chapter 7 The ACROS Tool User Guide 39 7.1 Role of the ACROS Tool in Inventory, Risk Assessment, and Prioritizing Adaptation Options 39 7.2 User Overview 40 7.3 System Requirements and Display Tips 40 7.4 Step-by-Step User’s Guide 40 7.4.1 Installation 41 7.4.2 Welcome Screen 41 7.4.3 Airport Selection Screen 42 7.4.4 Climate Information Overview 44 7.4.5 Climate Projections (days/year) 44 7.4.6 Additional Climate Vectors 44 7.4.7 Coastal Vectors 47 7.4.8 Asset and Operation Information 48 7.4.9 Defining Criticality 49 7.4.10 Understanding Possible Climate Impacts and Defining Impact Vulnerability 49 7.4.11 Risk Screening Page 51 7.4.12 Printing a Report

53 7.5 Saving, Sharing, and Troubleshooting 53 7.5.1 Saving an ACROS Work Session 54 7.5.2 Sharing an ACROS Work Session 54 7.6 Understanding ACROS Climate Results 54 7.6.1 Projected Changes 55 7.6.2 Interpreting Projected Changes P A R T I V Applying the Adaptation Framework 59 Chapter 8 Mainstreaming Adaptation Strategies 59 8.1 Safety Management Systems 60 8.2 Disaster, Business Recovery, and Emergency Response Planning 60 8.3 Risk Management Processes 61 8.4 Master Plans, Sustainable Planning, and Activities 62 8.5 Programming and Conceptual Design Processes 62 8.6 Disaster and Business Recovery Planning 63 8.7 Transportation Planning Frameworks 63 8.7.1 Design and Construction 64 8.8 Business Continuity Planning 65 Chapter 9 Master Plans and Climate Change Adaptation 65 9.1 ALP and Master Plan Development 65 9.2 Aligning Climate Change Adaptation with Master Plan Development 69 9.3 Monitor and Update 70 Chapter 10 Glossary of Terms and Acronym List 76 References and Resources A-1 Appendix A Airport Asset Impacts B-1 Appendix B Asset Inventory and Criticality Checklist C-1 Appendix C Adaptation Implementation Worksheets D-1 Appendix D Overview of Climate Change Science E-1 Appendix E Resources F-1 Appendix F National Heat Maps with Ranges G-1 Appendix G ACRP Climate Model Uncertainty Table Note: Photographs, figures, and tables in this report may have been converted from color to grayscale for printing. The electronic version of the report (posted on the web at www.trb.org) retains the color versions.