Climate Change Adaptation Planning: Risk Assessment for Airports (2015)

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Introduction and Adaptation Framework P A R T I

3 1.1 From Flexibility to Resiliency: The Case for Climate Change Adaptation The purpose of this guidebook and accompanying Airport Climate Risk Operational Screening (ACROS) tool is to help airport managers understand the specific impacts climate change may have on their airports, and to provide guidance on developing adaptation actions and incorporat- ing them into existing airport planning processes. While airports are well equipped to respond to daily fluctuations in weather, significant changes to climate (average atmospheric conditions over time) can negatively affect airport operation and infrastructure. This guidebook takes the perspec- tive that understanding and addressing an airport’s climate change risks is a key component of airport resilience. As with many other factors affecting airports, changing climate has the potential to be costly and disruptive; however, risk assessment and planning can mitigate those effects. Without access to detailed information about how climate is projected to change, the need to consider adaptation strategies may not always be clear: in a poll conducted in preparation for this study effort, many airport operators and managers responded that they feel prepared for climate change because they already contend with a variety of weather-related issues. How- ever, the science indicates that these impacts may manifest not only in disruptions to air traffic schedules, but also by: • Increasing operating costs by gradually pushing airports into operating conditions that chal- lenge the experience of airport staff and the capacity of facilities and equipment, • Slowly undermining vulnerable capital investments, • Affecting the health and safety of customers and staff, and • Impairing the ability of airports to meet regulatory requirements. To improve understanding of the connections between climate and airport operation, industry experts worked with climate adaptation specialists to draw from current research and apply the results directly to the aviation industry, bridging the gap that exists between climate science and practice. The research team used the most recent information available from the Inter governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). This guidebook and the ACROS tool, which were refined based on comments from the teams of airport staff who participated in the case study process, are the culmination of those efforts. See Figure 1-1. A screening-level investigation of climate change risks to airports can be accomplished using the ACROS tool that accompanies this guidebook. Developing this guidebook and the ACROS tool was a collaborative effort across multiple disciplines and included airport experts, climate scientists, coastal scientists, civil engineers, and software developers. The guidebook contains a framework for those airports wishing to conduct a climate risk screening independently. The ACROS tool contains climate information for over 500 airports in the United States, as well C H A P T E R 1 Introduction and Purpose

4 Climate Change Adaptation Planning: Risk Assessment for Airports as over 700 climate change-related impacts that were established for airport assets and opera- tions. The ACROS tool provides an enterprise-level relative risk estimate for airport assets and operations for the years 2030 and 2060. The 2030 and 2060 time frames were chosen to inform the short- and long-term planning horizons (i.e., the planning and capital investment cycles for airport infrastructure). With the tool, airports can begin to understand which aspects of climate (such as high temperatures or heavy rain) will influence airport operations, what types of impacts to expect, and how to take action. This guidebook refers to general aspects of climate (e.g., high temperature) as climate stressors. More specific definitions of climate stressors that are directly related to airport operations (e.g., days when air temperatures exceed 90°F) are referred to as climate vectors. 1.2 Intended Use of the ACROS Tool The primary purpose of the ACROS tool is to help airports ask the question, “Within the entire airport, what’s most at risk to projected climate changes?” The ACROS tool uses a formula to compute an estimated level of risk for assets and operations at the airport. These risks are then ranked from high to low and grouped to provide an enterprise-level estimate of the relative risk posed for each asset and operation. The ACROS tool is a streamlined way to approach risk screening for an entire airport. The risk groupings can then be used to support the adaptation planning process by identifying and providing insight into higher urgency risks. The risk ranking process is described in more detail in Chapter 6. Two additional ways to use the information in the tool and guidebook were also suggested by case study participants: 1. Airport staff may benefit from the capability to review the vulnerabilities of one or a small number of assets. For example, when planning upgrades, replacements, or retrofits for equip- Figure 1-1. The components required to create the ACROS tool (GSE 5 ground service equipment, SLR 5 sea level rise).

Introduction and Purpose 5 ment, airports may be interested in learning about a single asset. In order to learn about a single asset or operation, staff can refer to the item of interest in the appendices of this guide- book, where a listing of possible climate stressors and adaptations for that asset is provided. It is not possible to use the tool to provide a risk ranking for a single asset at this time (ACROS was designed to compare multiple assets across the airport system). 2. Airport staff may have an interest in viewing all assets and operations that might be affected by a particular climate stressor. For example, after a storm, an airport might be interested in understanding vulnerabilities across the airport related solely to this type of event. While the ACROS tool itself is not configured to provide this functionality, airport staff can, again, use the tables provided in Appendix A of this guidebook to do so. While an enterprise-wide risk screening is the primary intended use of the tool, it is under- stood that airport managers may sometimes need to focus on particular aspects of the airport. Additionally, the adaptation planning process may be initiated for a number of reasons, ranging from post-disaster recovery to recognition of the opportunity to build additional resilience into replacement facilities and infrastructure. Whatever the motivation, adaptation planning, as pre- sented in this guidebook, delivers practical adaptation strategies to build resilience to climate change’s continuing, costly impacts using a commonsense, no-regrets approach. 1.3 How to Use this Guidebook The guidebook and ACROS tool are meant to be used together; however, the guidebook alone can serve as a roadmap for airports that wish to take stock of climate change impacts indepen- dently. By using this guidebook and tool, airport staff will be able to use the climate change adaptation framework described in Chapter 2 to: • Develop an effective advisory team and identify other important contributing stakeholders. • Gain an understanding of climate change projections and the limitations of the projections affecting adaptation decision making at their airport. • Learn how climate impacts pose risks to airport assets and operations. • Evaluate those risks from a likelihood and vulnerability perspective. • Generate a climate adaptation plan containing strategies tailored to the mix of assets and operations present at the airport. • Understand how to integrate adaptation strategies into existing and future airport planning documents and procedures. • Understand how to qualitatively evaluate specific adaptation options for incorporation into individual project designs. • Identify external partners (municipalities, utilities, transportation agencies, etc.) whose input and adaptation responses are critical to airport operation. To skip ahead to the ACROS tool User Guide, please go to Chapter 7

6Climate change adaptation planning is a multi-step process aimed at increasing the resilience of infrastructure and operations when confronted with the range of projected climate change impacts. The framework described below provides guidance on climate change adaptation from the early stakeholder identification process (see Chapter 3) through developing, implementing, and monitoring an airport’s adaptation plan. The adaptation planning process below is based on the efforts of other airports across the nation and internationally. The ultimate objective of the process is to become familiar with the range of projected climate change impacts; understand the effects of those impacts on operations and assets; and to select, implement, and refine a cor- responding set of adaptation strategies. 2.1 Components of the Climate Change Adaptation Planning Process Whether the climate change adaptation plan is a stand-alone document or part of an existing airport document such as the master plan, the essential adaptation components are the same. Figure 2-1 shows how the ACROS tool can help, namely by assisting with the inventory, climate risk, and adaptation options components of the process (see Chapter 7). While it is possible to use the report produced by ACROS as a major component of a stand-alone adaptation plan, this guidebook also provides direction for “mainstreaming” the information by including adapta- tion planning elements in relevant airport documents. (Chapters 8 and 9 describe how to inte- grate this information into existing airport documents.) The framework shown here is suitable for all airports undergoing the climate adaptation planning process. However, the ACROS tool is tailored to airports that are just beginning to plan for climate change, especially those with limited time and resources to obtain and investigate climate projections. 2.2 Role of the ACROS Tool in the Climate Change Adaptation Planning Process As shown in Figure 2-1, the ACROS tool provides support for several key processes, culminat- ing in a report based on airport-specific information. Some of this information is contained within the tool and some will be provided by the user team (discussed in further detail in the Chapter 7 User Guide). The report outlines a number of potential adaptation strategies for vulnerabilities identified through the tool workflow. These adaptation options are meant to represent a menu of possibilities that can be refined or expanded upon by the stakeholder advisory team over time. Ultimately, airport decision makers will select adaptations based on their own unique under- standing of their airport’s characteristics. Different airports may leverage different planning C H A P T E R 2 Adaptation Framework

Adaptation Framework 7 processes to support implementation of the selected options. Airport operators choosing to incorporate climate change adaptation into their operations and planning processes should take care to implement all phases of the climate change adaptation planning process, including suf- ficient stakeholder involvement and proper monitoring and updating. Communication and cooperation with airlines, tenants, nearby municipalities, and other organizations will be neces- sary throughout the process. Each step is described in greater detail in the following chapters. 1. Initiate the Adaptation Planning Process Establish a Stakeholder Advisory Committee Set Climate Resilience Goals Identify Audience and Destination for Adaptation Plan and Related Work Products 2. Develop an Adaptation Plan (Independent or Supported by the ACROS Tool) Assess Baseline Climate and Projected Climate Changes Identify Critical Assets and Operations Inventory Asset and Operational Vulnerabilities Prioritize Risks and Incorporate into Stand-Alone or Mainstreamed Documents 3. Refine and Monitor Climate Information: Update as New Data, Models, and Higher Resolution Information Become Available Criticality: Refine Over Time Vulnerabilities: Update to Reflect Changes in Condition and Design Specifications Activities: Monitor and Revise on 3-5 Year Time Scale or as Needed Figure 2-1. Components of the climate change adaptation planning process.* *The first and second category activities are the focus of the ACROS tool and guidebook.

8A survey of airport representatives and experts in the United States identified the following personnel as the crucial leaders or contributors to the climate change adaptation process for many airports. • Executive Management • Engineering • Planning • Operations and Maintenance • Environmental, Sustainability, and Resilience • Finance • Risk Management/Legal • Emergency Operations Representatives of airports in the United Kingdom who conducted climate change adaptation planning comparable to the efforts described here generated similar lists. The size and composi- tion of these committees will vary depending on the size and needs of individual airports. For more background on climate change adaptation already under way in the United States and the United Kingdom, please see Appendix E: Resources. 3.1 Establishing a Stakeholder Advisory Committee The selected team serves as the advisory committee to the climate change adaptation process. 3.1.1 The Core Advisory Committee Participants at this level should be enlisted according to their ability to contribute to the plan- ning process and to assist in the execution of airport adaptation initiatives. Their roles combine leadership and knowledge of the airport’s vulnerable facilities, assets, and operations, as well as the ability to direct identified adaptation and resilience efforts in the areas for which they are responsible. Personnel identified in the previous section can be considered as a starting point. Individual airports should select the composition of this team based on their needs. 3.1.2 Other Stakeholders Inside and Outside the Airport Other key airport personnel, airline representatives, government agencies such as the Fed- eral Aviation Administration (FAA), and local and regional stakeholders often have perspectives and resources that will contribute to a system’s overall resilience (Schaefer, 2012). Stakehold- ers outside the airport may be able to offer regional climate projections and may also desire or C H A P T E R 3 Initiating the Adaptation Planning Process

Initiating the Adaptation Planning Process 9 even require participation by the airport in their own climate change adaptation planning activi- ties. Universities and other academic entities can also offer valuable contributions to adaptation efforts through research and brainstorming (C&S Engineers, Inc. and Vanasse Hangen Brustlin, Inc., 2011). Ideally, such collaboration will spur parallel efforts external to the airport, improving resilience in areas that affect airports, but are outside their purview. By engaging with the wider community, airports can attain sufficient information and support for meaningful adaptation and planning. As climate change effects continue, airport staff who know the vulnerabilities of their facility, engage their community, and plan accordingly will be at a significant advantage in surmounting the challenges posed by present and future changes to climate (see Chapter 4). 3.2 Setting Climate Resilience Goals The adaptation goals set by the advisory committee will inform and steer the climate adapta- tion planning process. While goals informed by a comprehensive risk management approach with rigorous benefit-cost analyses would be ideal, the systematic application of the primary risk management strategies—accept, transfer, reduce, and/or avoid—to the assets of the enterprise is a useful technique to develop goals for the adaptation planning process. 3.2.1 Operational Goals Accepting the risk posed by climate change may be appropriate for a set of assets not critical to the operational or financial performance portion. Transfer strategies, which involve contractu- ally shifting risk from the airport to another entity, usually take the form of insurance coverage. Insurance can help with recovery efforts, but it is not a strategy that will provide for continuity of operations. The selection and use of either of the remaining strategies are the most likely to yield system resilience and financial wherewithal. Resilience-focused goals will seek to limit the impacts of changing climate on airport assets and operations, and may center on concepts such as: • Avoiding delays and closures. • Being an emergency operations center for the serviced jurisdiction or region. • Limiting impacts to assets by specific climate stressors. For instance, coastal airports may be principally focused on the effects of SLR on runways or other impacted facilities and some inland airports may be particularly concerned with temperature-related deformations to pavement. • Limiting revenue loss. Goals may vary significantly between airports, but it is suggested that the SMART (specific, measurable, attainable, relevant, timely) concept, often applied in planning and management contexts, be employed during the goal-setting process. Outcome-based goal-setting will guide the adaptation planning process and will also provide useful benchmarks against which to mea- sure progress in adaptation activities during the monitoring and refinement phase. 3.2.2 Communication and Awareness Goals A secondary goal of the adaptation planning process may involve increased communication and awareness. This preliminary assessment process is an opportunity to facilitate open discus- sions across an airport system’s many independent departments. The case study process that the study team employed to help develop this tool and guidebook illustrated the benefits of these conversations. Multi-department discussion of climate risks increases awareness of climate change issues and thereby improves the likelihood that an airport will address potential risks on a system-wide basis.

10 Climate Change Adaptation Planning: Risk Assessment for Airports 3.2.3 How Goals May Inform Priorities Climate risk alone may not drive implementation schedules. The advisory committee will need to examine vulnerability and risk assessment output and set priorities. It is anticipated that the advisory committee will flag some adaptation strategies as more urgent or more easily implemented. Other adaptations, especially those requiring significant capital investment and further study, may be more appropriate to address using the 30-year planning horizon (i.e., approximately 2060 rather than 2030). Careful consideration is required at this stage, because even gradual changes in climate stressors can put pressure on operations and maintenance bud- gets. Case study participants have suggested that the information generated through the adapta- tion planning process may be used to help make the case for increased upfront expenditures on resilient infrastructure design. 3.3 Identifying the Audience and Destination for the Adaptation Plan and Related Work Products The leadership role of the advisory committee is critical to the adaptation planning process. Once airport personnel understand airport climate vulnerabilities and generate adaptation strat- egies (either through the ACROS tool or through their own process), it is strongly recommended that the outputs be incorporated into appropriate documents, as defined by the Stakeholder Advisory Committee. The dissemination of this information to the right staff and incorporation into the right documents will play an important role in ensuring timely implementation. Documents that may be useful in supporting the adaptation planning process include the fol- lowing, which are described in more depth in Chapters 8 and 9. • Safety Management Systems; • Disaster, Business Recovery, and Emergency Response Planning; • Risk Management Processes; • Master Plans, Sustainable Planning, and Activities; • Programming and Conceptual Design Processes; • Disaster and Business Recovery Planning; • Transportation Planning Frameworks; and • Business Continuity Planning. Advisory committee leadership should also communicate the need for adaptation both within and outside the airport. Some adaptations may be highly desirable, but will be outside immediate airport control or require coordination between multiple organizations. In this case, necessary adaptations can be achieved only through cooperation and communication. Adaptation tools requiring multi-organization coordination could include changes to land use, zoning, develop- ment policies, or mutual aid agreements, and changes to emergency management procedures. Nonetheless, armed with a thorough understanding of their options, the committee will be able to help their airport (and possibly the wider community) develop appropriate strategies custom- ized to their geographic, functional, and operational characteristics.