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1 S U M M A R Y Overview This report presents the results of a project aimed at creating the prototype for a search- able (web-based) database of transit investment projects and their associated (transit-driven) economic and land development outcomes. The web tool that was developed, the case study database that it accesses, and the process by which case study results have been identified were patterned after a previously developed system for highway-related projects, funded by SHRP 2. However, the database and its case studies have been modified as necessary to be applicable for transit-related projects. Motivation Several reasons exist to conduct ex post analysis of completed transportation projects, examining actual results and impacts. These reasons include an ability to (a) inform public policy discussion regarding the range of likely impacts associated with transit projects and (b) provide insight for planners regarding factors to be considered in project design, plan- ning, and development. Before such a system can be developed, however, it is necessary to give thought to its overall design, develop prototype case studies to test data collection and analysis methods, and examine issues concerning how such a system can be used. Core Elements The report covers the design and development of the case study database and web tool and includes a set of seven prototype case studies. The web tool and prototype cases can be found at http://transit.tpics.us. The report is organized in terms of six major elements: 1. Discussion of ex post case study evaluation objectives and use; 2. Case study selection process; 3. Web tool development and case study contents; 4. Instructions on system use and development of additional case studies; 5. Recommendations regarding use, interpretation, and improvements to the system design; and 6. Appendices: database dictionary, case study training, and content of the case studies. Case Study Development Prototype case studies were developed to test the efficacy of ex post case studies (and available data measures) as a means of showing the economic impacts of transit projects. For that reason, the project team sought cases that included evidence of potential measurable Economic Impact Case Study Tool for Transit
2impacts. The case studies were also designed to distinguish observed pre/post changes at a project site from broader changes occurring in the surrounding region and to make use of multiple interviews as a source of information to distinguish transit project impacts from other factors that can affect observed changes in local land use and development. Case Study Finding Overall, the case studies showed wide variation in the number of jobs that were attributable to the transit projects and development around it. The most significant development and new employment following the opening of transit lines and stations were in areas where new transit service improved access to underdeveloped land close to urban cores that would not have been able to develop as densely if they relied only on private vehicle commuting. Much less significant development occurred around stations and lines that passed through already developed residential areas. Some cases were designed to leverage transit investments to aid larger efforts to revitalize inner city neighborhoods and had longer-term development goals. The recession around 2008 appears to have seriously slowed but not stopped the develop- ment impacts of many of the studied transit projects. In some cases, only half of planned development had been completed in the first decade since project completion. However, in such cases, there was evidence that impacts are still unfolding and may continue to grow in future years. In one case, over 15 years had passed; yet, companies are still citing transit access as an important factor in their current decisions to locate in the station area. Studying the economic development impact of transit is challenging because, in one sense, development may be most clearly considered a direct result of infrastructure improvements if they occur within walking distance of stations, which is why a ¼ mile radius was typically considered. This guideline does not, however, preclude the wider effects in which tran- sit investments support or enable development benefits in locales elsewhere in the transit network, particularly when transit projects also enhance connectivity and access to wider neighborhoods. A preliminary analysis of the pilot cases showed that local economic development impacts were most evident in areas where there is a supportive business community, zoning flexibility, a growing regional economy, and good transportation network connectivity. Conclusion The conclusion of this study highlights four key findings: 1. It is possible to develop a system of case studies to document the local economic impact of transit projects, paralleling a broader system previously developed for highways. Although the current transit case study database is limited to a small initial set of pilot cases, additional case studies could be developed in the future. 2. Any ex post analysis involves inherent challenges, largely because of the need to allow for sufficient time to observe post-project effects and the need to rely on interviews with transit planners and local economic development staff to gauge the magnitude, timing, and causal factors of ensuing investment and job growth. 3. Many potential dimensions of further analysis could be pursued in the future to expand the selection of project types, project motivations, and project locationsâall of which could be compatible with a future transit impact case study database. 4. A broader set of high-quality case studies will be required for transit planners to truly gain sufficient insight to improve future project planning and development.
