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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Frontiers in Decadal Climate Variability: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23552.
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FRONTIERS IN DECADAL
CLIMATE VARIABILITY

Proceedings of a Workshop

Amanda Purcell and Nancy Huddleston, Rapporteurs

Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate

Ocean Studies Board


Division on Earth and Life Studies

Images

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS

Washington, DC

www.nap.edu

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Frontiers in Decadal Climate Variability: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23552.
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001

This project was supported by the US Department of Energy under contract number DESC0014286, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under contract number NNX08AB07G, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration under contract number NA14OAR4310301, and the National Science Foundation under award number AGS-1507493. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project.

International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-44461-3
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-44461-6
Digital Object Identifier: 10.17226/23552

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Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Frontiers in Decadal Climate Variability: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: National Academies Press. DOI: 10.17226/23552.

Cover: A regression map of Pacific sea surface temperature variability. Figure modified after Di Lorenzo et al. (2015).

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Frontiers in Decadal Climate Variability: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23552.
×

Image

The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, nongovernmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president.

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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Frontiers in Decadal Climate Variability: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23552.
×

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Reports document the evidence-based consensus of an authoring committee of experts. Reports typically include findings, conclusions, and recommendations based on information gathered by the committee and committee deliberations. Reports are peer reviewed and are approved by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine.

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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Frontiers in Decadal Climate Variability: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23552.
×

COMMITTEE ON FRONTIERS IN DECADAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY: A WORKSHOP

GERALD A. (JERRY) MEEHL (Chair), National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

KEVIN ARRIGO, Stanford University, California

SHUYI S. CHEN, University of Miami, Florida

LISA GODDARD, Columbia University, Palisades, New York

ROBERT HALLBERG, Princeton University and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, New Jersey

DAVID HALPERN, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Pasadena, California

National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff

AMANDA PURCELL, Associate Program Officer, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (BASC)

NANCY HUDDLESTON, Communications Officer, Division on Earth and Life Sciences (DELS)

DEBORAH GLICKSON, Senior Program Officer, Ocean Studies Board (OSB) (through August 2015)

RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator, BASC

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Frontiers in Decadal Climate Variability: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23552.
×

BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE

A.R. RAVISHANKARA (Chair), Colorado State University, Fort Collins

GERALD A. MEEHL (Vice Chair), National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

LANCE F. BOSART, State University of New York, Albany

MARK A. CANE, Columbia University, Palisades, New York

SHUYI S. CHEN, University of Miami, Florida

HEIDI CULLEN, Climate Central, Princeton, New Jersey

PAMELA EMCH, Northrop Grumman Aerospace Systems, Redondo Beach, California

ARLENE FIORE, Columbia University, Palisades, New York

WILLIAM B. GAIL, Global Weather Corporation, Boulder, Colorado

LISA GODDARD, Columbia University, Palisades, New York

MAURA HAGAN, Utah State University, Logan

TERRI S. HOGUE, Colorado School of Mines, Golden

ANTHONY JANETOS, Boston University, Massachusetts

EVERETTE JOSEPH, SUNY University at Albany, New York

RONALD “NICK” KEENER, JR., Duke Energy Corporation, Charlotte, North Carolina

JOHN R. NORDGREN, The Climate Resilience Fund, Bainbridge Island, Washington

JONATHAN OVERPECK, University of Arizona, Tucson

ARISTIDES A.N. PATRINOS, New York University, Brooklyn

S.T. RAO, North Carolina State University, Raleigh

DAVID A. ROBINSON, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, Piscataway

CLAUDIA TEBALDI, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate Central, Boulder, Colorado

Ocean Studies Board Liaison

DAVID HALPERN, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California

Polar Research Board Liaison

JENNIFER FRANCIS, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, Marion, Massachusetts

National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff

AMANDA STAUDT, Director

EDWARD DUNLEA, Senior Program Officer

LAURIE GELLER, Program Director

KATHERINE THOMAS, Senior Program Officer

LAUREN EVERETT, Program Officer

ALISON MACALADY, Program Officer

AMANDA PURCELL, Associate Program Officer

RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator

ROB GREENWAY, Program Associate

SHELLY FREELAND, Financial Associate

MICHAEL HUDSON, Senior Program Assistant

ERIN MARKOVICH, Program Assistant

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Frontiers in Decadal Climate Variability: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23552.
×

OCEAN STUDIES BOARD

LARRY A. MAYER (Chair), University of New Hampshire, Durham

E. VIRGINIA ARMBRUST, University of Washington, Seattle

KEVIN R. ARRIGO, Stanford University, California

CLAUDIA BENITEZ-NELSON, University of South Carolina, Columbia

RITA R. COLWELL, University of Maryland, College Park

SARAH W. COOKSEY, State of Delaware, Dover

CORTIS K. COOPER, Chevron Corporation, San Ramon, California

JAMES A. ESTES, University of California, Santa Cruz

DAVID HALPERN, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California

PATRICK HEIMBACH, University of Texas, Austin

SUSAN E. HUMPHRIS, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts

BONNIE J. MCCAY, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey

S. BRADLEY MORAN, University of Alaska, Fairbanks

STEVEN A. MURAWSKI, University of South Florida, St. Petersburg

JOHN A. ORCUTT, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California

H. TUBA ÖZKAN-HALLER, Oregon State University, Corvallis

MARTIN D. SMITH, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina

MARGARET SPRING, Monterey Bay Aquarium, Monterey, California

DON WALSH, International Maritime Incorporated, Myrtle Point, Oregon

DOUGLAS WARTZOK, Florida International University, Miami

LISA D. WHITE, University of California, Berkeley and San Francisco State University

ROBERT S. WINOKUR, Michigan Tech Research Institute, Maryland

National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff

SUSAN ROBERTS, Director

CLAUDIA MENGELT, Senior Program Officer

STACEE KARRAS, Associate Program Officer

PAMELA LEWIS, Administrative Coordinator

PAYTON KULINA, Senior Program Assistant

SHUBHA BANSKOTA, Financial Associate

HEATHER COLEMAN, Postdoctoral Fellow

Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Frontiers in Decadal Climate Variability: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23552.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Frontiers in Decadal Climate Variability: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23552.
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Acknowledgments

This Proceedings of a Workshop has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published proceedings as sound as possible and to ensure that the proceedings meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this proceedings:

Lisa Goddard, Columbia University

Philip Jones, University of East Anglia

Veronica Nieves, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory

Gavin Schmidt, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies

Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they did not see the final draft of the Proceedings of a Workshop before public release. The review of this proceedings was overseen by Xubin Zeng, University of Arizona; he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this proceedings was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this proceedings rests entirely with the authors and the institution.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Frontiers in Decadal Climate Variability: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23552.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Frontiers in Decadal Climate Variability: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23552.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Frontiers in Decadal Climate Variability: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23552.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Frontiers in Decadal Climate Variability: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23552.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Frontiers in Decadal Climate Variability: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23552.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Frontiers in Decadal Climate Variability: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23552.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Frontiers in Decadal Climate Variability: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23552.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Frontiers in Decadal Climate Variability: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23552.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Frontiers in Decadal Climate Variability: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23552.
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Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Frontiers in Decadal Climate Variability: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23552.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Frontiers in Decadal Climate Variability: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23552.
×
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Frontiers in Decadal Climate Variability: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23552.
×
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Frontiers in Decadal Climate Variability: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23552.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Frontiers in Decadal Climate Variability: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23552.
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Many factors contribute to variability in Earth’s climate on a range of timescales, from seasons to decades. Natural climate variability arises from two different sources: (1) internal variability from interactions among components of the climate system, for example, between the ocean and the atmosphere, and (2) natural external forcings, such as variations in the amount of radiation from the Sun. External forcings on the climate system also arise from some human activities, such as the emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols. The climate that we experience is a combination of all of these factors.

Understanding climate variability on the decadal timescale is important to decision-making. Planners and policy makers want information about decadal variability in order to make decisions in a range of sectors, including for infrastructure, water resources, agriculture, and energy.

In September 2015, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine convened a workshop to examine variability in Earth’s climate on decadal timescales, defined as 10 to 30 years. During the workshop, ocean and climate scientists reviewed the state of the science of decadal climate variability and its relationship to rates of human-caused global warming, and they explored opportunities for improvement in modeling and observations and assessing knowledge gaps. Frontiers in Decadal Climate Variability summarizes the presentations and discussions from the workshop.

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