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Frontiers in Decadal Climate Variability: Proceedings of a Workshop (2016)

Chapter: Appendix C: Workshop Agenda

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Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Workshop Agenda." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Frontiers in Decadal Climate Variability: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23552.
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Appendix C
Workshop Agenda

FRONTIERS IN DECADAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY: A WORKSHOP
September 3-4, 2015
Jonsson Conference Center Carriage House
314 Quisset Ave., Woods Hole, MA

7:30 A. M. Shuttle pick up at Inn on the Square/Holiday Inn
8:00 A. M. Breakfast at Jonsson Center
8:30 A. M. Welcome, Introduction, Purpose of Workshop Jerry Meehl
9:00 A. M. Communication and framing of panel talks Susan Hassol and Brian Kahn

PANEL 1: PACIFIC DECADAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY

Moderator: Jerry Meehl

9:10 A. M. Presentations
  • Tropical Pacific decadal variability and the global warming hiatus
 Shang-Ping Xie, Scripps
  • Comparing simulated and observed and decadal trends
 John Fyfe, CCCma
  • Tropical Pacific decadal variability: Oceanic processes and the possible important role of climate noise
 Antonietta Capotondi, CIRES/NOAA
  • Pacific decadal climate variability: Phenomenon, evidence, and impacts
 Yochanan Kushnir, LDEO
10:10 A. M. Discussion
10:40 A. M. Break

PANEL 2: ATLANTIC DECADAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY

Moderator: Robert Hallberg

11:00 A. M. Presentations
  • Robust and non-robust aspects of AMOC intrinsic variability and mechanisms in the Community Earth System Model (CESM)
 Gokhan Danabasoglu, NCAR
  • Understanding tropical Atlantic decadal variability: The role of tropical Pacific versus subpolar Atlantic
 Mingfang Ting, LDEO
  • The impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on climate through its influence on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
 Tom Delworth, GFDL
  • Predictability of the recent slowdown and subsequent recovery of large-scale surface warming using statistical methods
 Michael Mann, Penn State
12:00 P. M. Discussion
12:30 P. M. Lunch

Page 66 Cite
Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Workshop Agenda." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Frontiers in Decadal Climate Variability: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23552.
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PANEL 3: ASPECTS OF DECADAL VARIABILITY—PALEO EVIDENCE AND EXTERNAL FORCING

Moderator: David Halpern

1:30 P. M. Presentations
  • Decadal variability in Pacific trade winds inferred from coral Mn/Ca: Implications for the rate of global warming
 Diane Thompson, Boston University
  • Paleo-constraints on decadal climate variability in the tropical Pacific
 Kim Cobb, Georgia Tech
  • Radiative forcing contributions to changes in recent rates of global warming
 Susan Solomon, MIT
  • How long could the current hiatus in global warming last?
 Tom Knutson, GFDL
2:30 P. M. Discussion
3:00 P. M. Break

PANEL 4: OBSERVATIONS, OCEAN MIXING, AND DECADAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY

Moderator: Kevin Arrigo

3:30 P. M. Presentations
  • Impact of data coverage and quality control on global surface temperature trends: Part 1—Overview and sea surface temperature aspects
 Huai-min Zhang, NOAA
  • Impact of data coverage and quality control on global surface temperature trends: Part 2—Land surface air temperature aspects
 Matthew Menne, NOAA
  • Pacific temporarily hid heat below surface
 Veronica Nieves, JPL
  • Understanding decadal climate variability using formal model-data synthesis
 Patrick Heimbach, UT Austin
4:30 P. M. Discussion
5:00 P. M. Adjourn
5:30 P. M. Working dinner/Lobster boil
8:00 A. M. Breakfast
8:30 A. M. Convene and plan for day Jerry Meehl

PANEL 5: AIR-SEA INTERACTION AND OCEAN PROCESSES CONTRIBUTING TO DECADAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY

Moderator: Shuyi Chen

8:30 A. M. Presentations
  • Consequences of uncertainty in air-sea exchange
 Baylor Fox-Kemper, Brown
  • The ocean’s role in polar climate change: asymmetric Arctic and Antarctic responses to greenhouse gas and ozone forcing
 John Marshall, MIT
  • Arctic changes and mid-latitude weather linkages in the coming decades
 James Overland, PMEL
  • Indian Ocean variability and its impact on regional climate
 Caroline Ummenhofer, WHOI
9:30 A. M. Discussion
10:00 A. M. Break

Page 67 Cite
Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Workshop Agenda." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Frontiers in Decadal Climate Variability: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23552.
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BREAKOUT GROUPS

10:30 A. M. Instruction for breakouts Jerry Meehl
  1. Observations of decadal climate variability
    1. Co-leads: Patrick Heimbach, Caroline Ummenhofer
    2. Tasks:
      1. Identify observational gaps
      2. Consider the utility and accuracy of various observations for tracking long-term climate variability, anticipating the onset and end of hiatus regimes, and closing the long-term heat budget
  2. Modeling decadal climate variability
    1. Co-leads: Gokhan Danabagoslu, Shang-Ping Xie
    2. Tasks:
      1. Identify modeling gaps
      2. Consider the utility of hiatus regimes as a metric for evaluating performance of long-term climate models
12:00 P. M. Lunch
1:00 P. M. Breakout groups report back Jerry Meehl
  • 15 minutes per breakout group; 45 minutes discussion

PANEL 6: SYNTHESIS AND COMMUNICATING DECADAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY

Moderator: Lisa Goddard

2:15 P. M. Key workshop messages Lisa Goddard and David Halpern
2:30 P. M. Communicating climate science
  • Susan Hassol, Climate Communication
  • Brian Kahn, Climate Central
Discussion
3:30 P. M. Discussion of products Jerry Meehl, Amanda Purcell, and committee members
4:00 P. M. Workshop adjourns
Page 68 Cite
Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Workshop Agenda." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Frontiers in Decadal Climate Variability: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23552.
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Page 65 Cite
Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Workshop Agenda." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Frontiers in Decadal Climate Variability: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23552.
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Page 66 Cite
Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Workshop Agenda." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Frontiers in Decadal Climate Variability: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23552.
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Page 67 Cite
Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Workshop Agenda." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Frontiers in Decadal Climate Variability: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23552.
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Page 68 Cite
Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Workshop Agenda." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Frontiers in Decadal Climate Variability: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23552.
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Many factors contribute to variability in Earth's climate on a range of timescales, from seasons to decades. Natural climate variability arises from two different sources: (1) internal variability from interactions among components of the climate system, for example, between the ocean and the atmosphere, and (2) natural external forcings, such as variations in the amount of radiation from the Sun. External forcings on the climate system also arise from some human activities, such as the emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols. The climate that we experience is a combination of all of these factors.

Understanding climate variability on the decadal timescale is important to decision-making. Planners and policy makers want information about decadal variability in order to make decisions in a range of sectors, including for infrastructure, water resources, agriculture, and energy.

In September 2015, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine convened a workshop to examine variability in Earth's climate on decadal timescales, defined as 10 to 30 years. During the workshop, ocean and climate scientists reviewed the state of the science of decadal climate variability and its relationship to rates of human-caused global warming, and they explored opportunities for improvement in modeling and observations and assessing knowledge gaps. Frontiers in Decadal Climate Variability summarizes the presentations and discussions from the workshop.

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