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Suggested Citation:"References." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Evaluation of the Predictive Ecological Model for the Edwards Aquifer Habitat Conservation Plan: An Interim Report as Part of Phase 2. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23557.
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  • Evaluate further the present assumptions about no nutrient limitation, the present formulation for light and temperature effects, and direct and indirect roles of flow in the SAV model. [Comment 10]
  • Further confirm the calibration and the realism of the resulting parameter values, and the appropriateness of using a crop model for SAV using literature and site-specific information. [Comment 12]
  • Ensure sufficient documentation/explanation of the SAV model and of the coupled version of the FD-SAV modeling for future evaluation and use of the models. [Comment 11]
  • Expand on the calibration and validation of the FD model to address the partial tautological aspect of specifying the maximum densities from observed values and then showing the model replays total abundances, and the relatively low interannual variation of environmental conditions within the calibration time period. [Comments 14 and 15]
  • Develop and implement a calibration and validation plan for the SAV model that includes model-data comparisons of biological rates and testing of the model’s ability to produce key spatial patterns. [Comments 16, 17, and 18]

Much progress has been made and there is still significant effort remaining in order to get the models to the point in their development and evaluation that they are ready for predicting responses of SAV and FD to HCP actions. These comments hopefully provide guidance for continuing on the path forward.

References

BIO-WEST. 2015. Predictive ecological model for the Comal and San Marcos ecosystems project. Edwards Aquifer Habitat Conservation Plan. Interim Report. Contract No. 13-637-HCP.

EARIP (Edwards Aquifer Recovery Implementation Program). 2012. Habitat Conservation Plan. Edwards Aquifer Recovery Implementation Program.

Grimm, V., E. Revilla, U. Berger, F. Jeltsch, W. M. Mooij, S. F. Railsback, H.-H. Thulke, J. Weiner, T. Wiegand, and D. L. DeAngelis. 2005. Pattern-oriented modeling of agent-based complex systems: lessons from ecology. Science 310(5750):987-991.

NRC (National Research Council). 2015. Review of the Edwards Aquifer Habitat Conservation Plan: Report 1. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.

Parrish, R. H., and A. D. MacCall. 1978. The climatic variation and exploitation in the Pacific mackerel fishery (Vol. 167). State of California, Resources Agency, Department of Fish and Game.

Rose, K. A., J. H. Cowan, K. O. Winemiller, R. A. Myers, and R. Hilborn. 2001. Compensatory density dependence in fish populations: importance, controversy, understanding and prognosis. Fish and Fisheries 2:293-327.

Teh, C. 2006. Introduction to Mathematical Modeling of Crop Growth. Boca Raton, FL: Brown Walker Press.

Suggested Citation:"References." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Evaluation of the Predictive Ecological Model for the Edwards Aquifer Habitat Conservation Plan: An Interim Report as Part of Phase 2. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23557.
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Evaluation of the Predictive Ecological Model for the Edwards Aquifer Habitat Conservation Plan: An Interim Report as Part of Phase 2 Get This Book
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 Evaluation of the Predictive Ecological Model for the Edwards Aquifer Habitat Conservation Plan: An Interim Report as Part of Phase 2
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An ad hoc committee of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine is in the process of reviewing the many different scientific initiatives underway to support the Edwards Aquifer Habitat Conservation Plan (HCP). The Committee to Review the Edwards Aquifer Habitat Conservation Plan is focusing on the adequacy of information to reliably inform assessments of the HCP's scientific initiatives, ensuring that these initiatives are based on the best-available science. Relationships among proposed conservation measures (including flow protection measures and habitat protection and restoration), biological objectives (defined by the HCP as specified flow rates), and biological goals (such as maintaining populations of the endangered species) are central to the HCP, and are being evaluated during the Academies review. The study spans from 2014 to 2018 and will result in three reports. At the conclusion of Phase 1, the Committee issued its first report (NRC, 2015), which focused on hydrologic modeling, ecological modeling, water quality and biological monitoring, and the Applied Research Program. The Committee will issue its second report in late 2016 and its third and final report in 2018.

This interim report is part of Phase 2 activities and will be incorporated, as an appendix, into the second report. This interim report focuses on the ecological modeling only and is being provided prior to the issuance of the second report in order for the Committee's comments (which take the form of conclusions and recommendations) to be considered while the ecological modeling team is still in place.

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