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Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Workshop Agenda." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Characterizing Risk in Climate Change Assessments: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23569.
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Appendix A

Workshop Agenda

Methods for Characterizing Risk in Climate Change Assessments:
A Workshop for the U.S. Global Change Research Program

The National Academy of Sciences Building-Room 120
2101 Constitution Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20418
March 23-24, 2016

Purpose of this meeting: The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), in response to its legislative mandate, conducts periodic National Climate Assessments to inform the nation about observed changes in climate, the current status of the climate, and anticipated trends for the future. The Program has conducted three such assessments and intends to develop a sustained assessment process. This workshop is designed to address a key issue for NCAs: providing information about climate-related hazards, risks, and opportunities in formats that are understandable, credible, and useful to decision makers in their efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to reduce vulnerability and increase resilience to climate change in the regions or sectors for which they are responsible.

AGENDA

March 23
8:30 am Welcome, introductions, workshop background, and objectives

Richard Moss, Chair, Board on Environmental Change and Society

Joseph Arvai, University of Michigan, Workshop Planning Committee Chair

Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Workshop Agenda." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Characterizing Risk in Climate Change Assessments: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23569.
×
8:40 am The objectives for, and desired impact of, the workshop

John P. Holdren, White House Office of Science and Technology Policy

Thomas Karl, USGCRP

9:10 am Panel on issues, methods, and approaches for characterizing and communicating risk in climate change assessments (see planning document)

Introductory Remarks: Joseph Arvai, University of Michigan, Workshop Planning Committee Chair

9:15 am

1. Risk: Consequences to consider in climate change assessments

Alice Hill, National Security Council

9:45 am

2. Risk: Likelihoods of significant consequences

Ben Sanderson, National Center for Atmospheric Research

10:15 am Break
10:30 am

3. Risk: Treatment of uncertainty in climate change assessments

Robert Kopp, Rutgers University

11:00 am

4. Framing climate change risks to enhance effective communication

Robyn Wilson, Ohio State University

11:30 am

5. Characterizing risk-based tradeoffs to support climate change decisions

Robin Gregory, University of British Columbia

Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Workshop Agenda." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Characterizing Risk in Climate Change Assessments: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23569.
×
12:00 pm

6. A framework for climate change decision making under uncertainty

Inês Azevedo, Carnegie Mellon University

12:30 pm Lunch
1:30 pm Case-focused panels: Methods and approaches for risk-based assessment and communication
Each panel will consider, in the context of one of the chapters in the NCA, how the chapter could be written to take into account the risk issues and methods raised in the earlier discussion. Speakers will be asked to address issues of characterizing risks (consequences, likelihoods, and uncertainties), process issues in making risk information useful for decisions, and informing tradeoffs among risks to be reduced. Moderators will help guide the discussion and offer summative comments.
Panel 1: Climate Change and the U.S. Southwest
NCA3 Chapter 20—Southwest
Moderator: Kristie Ebi, University of Washington

Gregg Garfin, University of Arizona

Bradley Udall, Colorado State University

Jonathan Overpeck, University of Arizona

3:00 pm Break
3:15 pm Panel 2: Impacts of Climate Change on Coastal Regions
NCA3 Chapter 25—Coasts

Moderator: Claudia Tebaldi, National Center for Atmospheric Research

Robin Gregory, University of British Columbia

Susanne Moser, Independent Consultant

Margaret Davidson, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Workshop Agenda." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Characterizing Risk in Climate Change Assessments: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23569.
×
4:45 pm Concluding comments by moderators
5:00 pm Adjourn
March 24
8:30 am Welcome, Recap of Day 1, and Plan for Day 2

Joseph Arvai, University of Michigan, Workshop Planning Committee Chair

8:45 am Panel 3: Energy-Land-Water Interactions
NCA3 Chapter 10—Energy, Water, and Land

Moderator: Robyn Wilson, Ohio State University

Peter Gleick, Pacific Institute

Paul Fleming, Seattle Public Utilities

Joseph Arvai, University of Michigan, Workshop Planning Committee Chair

10:15 am Break
10:30 am An EPA Approach to Assessment: “Climate Change in the United States”

Moderator: Chris Weaver, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Jeremy Martinich, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

10:45 am General Discussion: Key Risk-Related Topics for the National Climate Assessments

Moderator: Richard Moss, Joint Global Change Research Institute

Key Topics:
  1. Best Practices for Characterizing Risks
  2. Best Processes for Conveying Risk Information
  3. Approaches to Comparing Risk Information Across Sectors or Regions
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Workshop Agenda." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Characterizing Risk in Climate Change Assessments: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23569.
×
  1. Research Needs and Additional Issues to Be Considered in National Assessments
12:15 pm Lunch
1:00 pm Closing Panel: One Small Step Takeaways for NCA4 and One Giant Leap Takeaways for NCA5+

Moderator: Joseph Arvai, University of Michigan, Workshop Planning Committee Chair

  1. Comments from organizing committee members: Baruch Fischhoff, Carnegie Mellon University; Chris Weaver, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
  2. Comments from users of the NCA: Paul Fleming, Seattle Public Utilities; Margaret Davidson, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (by phone)
  3. Comments from the USGCRP perspective: Michael Kuperberg, USGCRP
  4. General discussion
2:30 pm Adjourn
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Workshop Agenda." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Characterizing Risk in Climate Change Assessments: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23569.
×

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Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Workshop Agenda." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Characterizing Risk in Climate Change Assessments: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23569.
×
Page 75
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Workshop Agenda." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Characterizing Risk in Climate Change Assessments: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23569.
×
Page 76
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Workshop Agenda." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Characterizing Risk in Climate Change Assessments: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23569.
×
Page 77
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Workshop Agenda." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Characterizing Risk in Climate Change Assessments: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23569.
×
Page 78
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Workshop Agenda." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Characterizing Risk in Climate Change Assessments: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23569.
×
Page 79
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Workshop Agenda." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Characterizing Risk in Climate Change Assessments: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23569.
×
Page 80
Next: Appendix B: Biographical Sketches of Committee Members and Presenters »
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The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) was established in 1990 to “assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change.”1 A key responsibility for the program is to conduct National Climate Assessments (NCAs) every 4 years.2 These assessments are intended to inform the nation about “observed changes in climate, the current status of the climate, and anticipated trends for the future.” The USGCRP hopes that government entities from federal agencies to small municipalities, citizens, communities, and businesses will rely on these assessments of climate- related risks for planning and decision-making. The third NCA (NCA3) was published in 2014 and work on the fourth is beginning.

The USGCRP asked the Board on Environmental Change and Society of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to conduct a workshop to explore ways to frame the NCA4 and subsequent NCA reports in terms of risks to society. The workshop was intended to collect experienced views on how to characterize and communicate information about climate-related hazards, risks, and opportunities that will support decision makers in their efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, reduce vulnerability to likely changes in climate, and increase resilience to those changes. Characterizing Risk in Climate Change Assessments summarizes the presentations and discussions from the workshop.

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