THE FUTURE OF
ATMOSPHERIC
CHEMISTRY RESEARCH
Remembering Yesterday, Understanding Today,
Anticipating Tomorrow
Committee on the Future of Atmospheric Chemistry Research
Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
Division on Earth and Life Studies
A Report of
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, DC
www.nap.edu
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS • 500 Fifth Street, NW • Washington, DC 20001
This study was supported by the National Science Foundation under Award Number AGS-1449200. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project.
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-44565-8
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-44565-5
Digital Object Identifier: 10.17226/23573
Additional copies of this publication are available for sale from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu.
Copyright 2016 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America
Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. The Future of Atmospheric Chemistry Research: Remembering Yesterday, Understanding Today, Anticipating Tomorrow. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23573.
The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, nongovernmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., is president.
The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president.
The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine.
Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.national-academies.org.
Reports document the evidence-based consensus of an authoring committee of experts. Reports typically include findings, conclusions, and recommendations based on information gathered by the committee and committee deliberations. Reports are peer reviewed and are approved by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine.
Proceedings chronicle the presentations and discussions at a workshop, symposium, or other convening event. The statements and opinions contained in proceedings are those of the participants and have not been endorsed by other participants, the planning committee, or the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine.
For information about other products and activities of the Academies, please visit nationalacademies.org/whatwedo.
COMMITTEE ON THE FUTURE OF ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY RESEARCH
ROBERT A. DUCE (Co-Chair), Texas A&M University, College Station
BARBARA J. FINLAYSON-PITTS (Co-Chair), University of California, Irvine
TAMI BOND, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign
WILLIAM H. BRUNE, Pennsylvania State University, University Park
ANNMARIE CARLTON, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, New Brunswick
ALLEN H. GOLDSTEIN, University of California, Berkeley
COLETTE L. HEALD, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
SCOTT C. HERNDON, Aerodyne Research, Inc., Billerica, Massachusetts
DYLAN B. A. JONES, University of Toronto, Ontario, Canada
ATHANASIOS NENES, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta
KIMBERLY A. PRATHER, University of California, San Diego
MICHAEL J. PRATHER, University of California, Irvine
ALLISON STEINER, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
CHRISTINE WIEDINMYER, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
LEI ZHU, New York State Department of Health, Albany
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff
EDWARD DUNLEA, Senior Program Officer
KATHERINE THOMAS, Senior Program Officer
HEATHER COLEMAN, Postdoctoral Fellow
KRISTINA PISTONE, Postdoctoral Fellow
SHELLY FREELAND, Administrative and Financial Assistant
MICHAEL HUDSON, Senior Program Assistant
BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE
A.R. RAVISHANKARA (Chair), Colorado State University, Fort Collins
GERALD A. MEEHL (Vice Chair), National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
LANCE F. BOSART, University at Albany, State University of New York
MARK A. CANE, Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, New York
SHUYI S. CHEN, University of Miami, Florida
HEIDI CULLEN, Climate Central, Princeton, New Jersey
PAMELA EMCH, Northrop Grumman Aerospace Systems, Redondo Beach, California
ARLENE FIORE, Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, New York
WILLIAM B. GAIL, Global Weather Corporation, Boulder, Colorado
LISA GODDARD, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, Palisades, New York
MAURA HAGAN, Utah State University, Logan
TERRI S. HOGUE, Colorado School of Mines, Golden
ANTHONY JANETOS, Boston University, Massachusetts
EVERETTE JOSEPH, University at Albany, State University of New York
RONALD “NICK” KEENER, JR., Duke Energy Corporation, Charlotte, North Carolina
JOHN R. NORDGREN, The Climate Resilience Fund, Bainbridge Island, Washington
JONATHAN OVERPECK, University of Arizona, Tucson
ARISTIDES A. N. PATRINOS, New York University, Brooklyn
S. T. RAO, North Carolina State University, Raleigh
DAVID A. ROBINSON, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, Piscataway
CLAUDIA TEBALDI, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate Central, Boulder, Colorado
Ocean Studies Board Liaison
DAVID HALPERN, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California
Polar Research Board Liaison
JENNIFER FRANCIS, Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, Marion, Massachusetts
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff
AMANDA STAUDT, Director
EDWARD DUNLEA, Senior Program Officer
LAURIE GELLER, Program Director
KATHERINE THOMAS, Senior Program Officer
LAUREN EVERETT, Program Officer
ALISON MACALADY, Associate Program Officer
AMANDA PURCELL, Associate Program Officer
RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator
ROB GREENWAY, Program Associate
SHELLY FREELAND, Financial Associate
MICHAEL HUDSON, Senior Program Assistant
ERIN MARKOVICH, Senior Program Assistant
This page intentionally left blank.
Acknowledgments
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report:
DAVID ALLEN, The University of Texas at Austin
DAVID ASPNES, North Carolina State University, Raleigh
STEVEN BROWN, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, Colorado
NEIL DONAHUE, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
ILIAS KAVOURAS, University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences, Little Rock
SONIA KREIDENWEIS, Colorado State University, Fort Collins
NATALIE MAHOWALD, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York
FAYE MCNEILL, Columbia University, New York, New York
MICHAEL MORGAN, University of Wisconsin–Madison
RONALD PRINN, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
BRUCE ROSEN, Harvard Medical School, Charlestown, Massachusetts
JAMES SCHAUER, University of Wisconsin–Madison
SUSAN TRUMBORE, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany
STEVE WOFSY, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the report’s conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before the release. The review of this report was overseen by Robert F. Sawyer, University of California, Berkeley, and Gregory R. Carmichael, University of Iowa, Iowa City. They were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.
This page intentionally left blank.
Dedication
We dedicate this report to the memory of Ralph J. Cicerone in great appreciation for his unique and creative contributions to atmospheric chemistry over many decades, and his leadership in both this field and in the advancement of science broadly for the public good.
Committee on the Future of Atmospheric Chemistry Research
This page intentionally left blank.
Preface
The chemistry of the atmosphere envelops us, affecting the health of humans and our environment, including croplands, forests, grasslands, and oceans. It converts emissions by humans and nature into gases and particles that obscure visibility, acidify rain, harm human health, and influence weather and climate. As human society continues to develop and populations grow, requirements for energy, food, and water also expand. This growth in turn drives changing distributions of chemical emissions from a variety of sources, with increases in anthropogenic air pollution in developing countries and decreases in developed countries, as well as alterations in natural sources caused by changing land use. Emissions are not just a local issue, as hemispheric and global transport of these chemicals and their reaction products have led to substantial changes in the global Earth system. Clearly, fundamental understanding of the chemistry of the atmosphere today and the ability to predict how it will change in response to human activities are integral components of developing policy to ensure societal well being.
It has been more than 30 years since the field of atmospheric chemistry has evaluated its research accomplishments and future directions. In 1984, at the request of the National Science Foundation (NSF), the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (the Academies1) developed the report Global Tropospheric Chemistry: A Plan for Action. That report recognized the impact that humans were having on the global atmosphere and called for a comprehensive research program to investigate the chemistry of the lower atmosphere on broad scales. Prior to that report, the emphasis in atmospheric chemistry had been on understanding the polluted troposphere and perturbed stratosphere. The 1984 report represented a paradigm shift—it had become clear that in order to understand human influences on the atmosphere, the scientific community also needed to understand the unperturbed system upon which these influences were imposed. This conclusion led directly to the formation of the NSF Global Tropospheric Chemistry Program, which not only resulted in enhanced support for atmospheric chemistry research, but also has been a major factor in the development of the discipline of atmospheric chemistry over the intervening decades. That report also helped provide a foundation for the formation of the International
___________________
1 In July 2015, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine formally changed its name and is no longer known as the National Research Council.
Global Atmospheric Chemistry (IGAC) program, a highly successful and far-reaching international research effort that is still active today.
Since that time, there have been a handful of specialized reports on atmospheric chemistry published by the Academies—Rethinking the Ozone Problem in Urban and Regional Air Pollution (NRC, 1991), A Plan for a Research Program on Aerosol Radiative Forcing and Climate Change (NRC, 1996), Global Air Quality (NRC, 2001), Radiative Forcing of Climate Change (NRC, 2005a), and Global Sources of Local Pollution (NRC, 2010). Atmospheric chemistry was also included in two reports focusing on the future of the atmospheric sciences, including The Atmospheric Sciences: Entering the Twenty First Century (NRC, 1998) and Strategic Guidance for the National Science Foundation’s Support of the Atmospheric Sciences (NRC, 2007). None of these reports, however, examined the field of atmospheric chemistry as a whole. Recognizing that there have been tremendous changes in our understanding of the chemistry of the atmosphere and our ability to investigate it through field, theory, laboratory, and modeling efforts over the past three decades, NSF once again asked the Academies to develop a report that would address the rationale and need for a comprehensive and broadly based research program in atmospheric chemistry over the next decade and identify priority areas of research and associated infrastructure that would be needed to successfully accomplish this research. The Committee on the Future of Atmospheric Chemistry Research was formed in early 2015 to address these issues.
A central part of the Committee’s activities was seeking the thoughts and advice of the U.S. atmospheric chemistry community on future priority areas in atmospheric chemistry research. This input was solicited by the Committee during a series of “town hall” meetings during the spring and summer of 2015 in Boulder, CO; Cambridge, MA; Washington, DC; Irvine, CA; and Atlanta, GA; as well as informally at the Gordon Research Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry in Waterville, NH. More than 250 individuals participated in these town hall meetings and provided valuable insights and suggestions to the Committee. In addition, almost 50 people expressed their thoughts and concerns about future atmospheric chemistry research to the Committee through an online portal. The Committee then considered the hundreds of collected comments that formed the basis for our analysis. During the preparation of this report the Committee held six meetings: in Washington, DC (three times), Irvine, CA (twice), and Atlanta, GA. A number of conference calls and WebEx meetings were also held during this time.
The Committee was also fortunate to have a number of distinguished atmospheric chemists speak formally to us during several of the meetings. These included atmospheric chemists from the international community, including Len Barrie (Sweden),
Guy Brasseur (Germany), Peter Liss (United Kingdom), and Megan Melamed (United States, IGAC). We also had the benefit of presentations by Michael Kleinman (UC Irvine) and John Seinfeld (Cal Tech). Mel Briscoe presented invaluable information and guidance to the Committee on prioritization processes. Presentations were made by program managers from several federal agencies, and these agencies also provided us with funding data for atmospheric chemistry over roughly the past decade. We greatly appreciate the efforts of Sylvia Edgerton and Peter Milne (NSF); Jack Kaye and Hal Maring (NASA); Sherri Hunt (EPA); Ashley Williamson, Shaima Nasiri, Sally McFarlane, and Dorothy Koch (DOE); and David Fahey, Steve Fine, Elliot Forest, Jason Donaldson, Laura Letson, Kenneth Mooney, and Monica Kopacz (NOAA) in providing us with this information.
It is clear that the field has advanced a great deal since the 1984 report. First, leaps in fundamental understanding of atmospheric processes have not only affected the field of atmospheric chemistry, but have also led to identification of new processes in the foundational fields of chemistry, physics, and meteorology, advancing those fields as well. Second, technological developments for measurements of chemicals in the atmosphere have led to substantially more complete characterization of the full range of atmospheric chemical composition and chemistry. Third, atmospheric chemistry understanding has advanced sufficiently that it is now clear that the field is central to addressing vitally important societal issues such as the health of humans and ecosystems, climate, and weather. Addressing these issues depends on a deep understanding of atmospheric chemistry as the basis for the development of reliable predictive capabilities across local, regional, and global scales. We believe this perspective represents a significant evolution of the field similar to that captured by the 1984 report.
In the words attributed to Isaac Newton, “If I have seen further, it is by standing on the shoulders of giants.” In this spirit, the report traces some of the history and tremendous successes of the field of atmospheric chemistry and highlights a few of the scientists who contributed with major breakthroughs, hence “Remembering Yesterday.”The report addresses the current state of understanding in various areas of atmospheric chemistry (“Understanding Today”), and finally, important challenges for the future that our community faces (“Anticipating Tomorrow”).
The Committee could not have completed its task without the tremendous support of many people at the Academies. This report began with expert assistance and guidance from Katie Thomas at the beginning stages. Edward Dunlea, senior program officer at the Academies, was a tower of strength, knowledge, patience, and wisdom during the entire process of the development of this report. His ability to nudge us all forward constructively but consistently and his contributions and interactions on an
almost 24/7 basis were major factors in the report’s successful completion; we could not have asked for a better leader from the Academies. Kristina Pistone and Heather Coleman, both Christine Mirzayan Science and Technology Policy Graduate Fellows at the Academies, provided essential behind-the-scenes work tracking down people, references, and myriad other data for our report, in addition to helping significantly during its writing. Deb Glickson and Laurie Geller provided wonderful perspectives, experience and advice as we began our prioritization process. The Academies’ staff Shelly Freeland and Michael Hudson provided invaluable support that greatly facilitated the logistics of our meetings so that the Committee could focus on the tasks at hand. Their cheerful, efficient, and professional assistance set a very high standard indeed.
Finally, we cannot thank enough the members of this Committee, who have made our jobs as co-chairs a pleasure. They have worked diligently since before our first meeting and throughout the process of report development. Every member has made seminal contributions to the report, and they have done it with a deep understanding of atmospheric chemistry, past and present, and what is needed in the future. They have been very patient with us as we tried to find the best paths forward that considered all points of view. Their sense of responsibility as well as humor has made deadlines and difficult choices achievable.
If the membership of this Committee and those in the community who participated in the process are representative of the current field of atmospheric chemistry, and we think they are, our discipline is in very good hands for the future.
Robert A. Duce, Committee Co-Chair
Barbara J. Finlayson-Pitts, Committee Co-Chair
Contents
Changing World, Changing Atmosphere
Attaining a Predictive Capability
Recommended Scientific Priorities for Atmospheric Chemistry Research
Supporting Programmatic and Infrastructure Priorities for Advancing Atmospheric Chemistry Research
1.1 A Changing World, a Changing Atmosphere
1.2 The Science of Atmospheric Chemistry
1.3 Attaining a Predictive Capability
2.1 Past Successes of Atmospheric Chemistry in a Changing World
3.2 Chemical Transformations Affect the Spatial and Temporal Variability of Gases and Particles
3.3 Atmospheric Oxidants Control the Lifetimes, Distribution, and Products of Emitted Species
3.6 Atmospheric Trace Gases and Aerosol Particles Couple to Global Biogeochemical Cycles
4 ANTICIPATING TOMORROW: SOCIETAL CHALLENGES
4.1 Atmospheric Gases and Particles Affect Climate and Weather
4.2 Atmospheric Chemistry Affects Human Health
4.3 Atmospheric Chemistry Interacts with Natural and Managed Ecosystems
4.4 Societal Choices and Impacts
5 ANTICIPATING TOMORROW: RESEARCH PRIORITIES IN ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY
6.1 Discussion of Trends in Atmospheric Chemistry
6.2 Development of Tools for Atmospheric Chemistry Research
6.3 Information Collection, Analysis, and Archiving in the Era of “Big Data”
6.4 Imperative for Collaborations
C Analysis of Funding Trends for Atmospheric Chemistry Research