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Progress Toward Restoring the Everglades: The Sixth Biennial Review - 2016 (2016)

Chapter: Appendix C: Ecological Modeling

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Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Ecological Modeling." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Progress Toward Restoring the Everglades: The Sixth Biennial Review - 2016. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23672.
×
Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Ecological Modeling." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Progress Toward Restoring the Everglades: The Sixth Biennial Review - 2016. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23672.
×

TABLE C-1 Current Everglades Ecological Models and Use

Model Version Number Lead (Point of Contact)
Alligator Production Suitability Index Model (Shinde et al., 2014) 2.2.0.512 ENP-SFNRC w/Brandt-Mazzotti (D. Shinde)
EverSnail: Native Apple Snail Population Model (Darby et al., 2015) 1.1 UWF-USGS (P. Darby, D. DeAngelis, S. Romañach)
Amphibian Community Species Richness (v.2.0.0) (JEM, 2011) 2.1.421 JEM-USGS (H. Waddle, S. Romañach)
Biscayne Bay Nearshore SAV none UM (R. Santos, D. Lirman)
Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow Marl Prairie Index (Pearlstine et al., 2016) 2.2.2 ENP-SFNRC (L. Pearlstine)
Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow Species Distribution Model none USGS/ENP-SFNRC (J. Beerens S. Romañach, L. Pearlstine)
Estuarine Prey Fish Biomass (Romañach et al., 2011a) 1.0.0 JEM-Audubon (J. Lorenz, S. Romañach)
Everglades Landscape Model (Orem et al., 2014; Fitz et al., 2015) 2.9.0 www.EcoLandMod.com (C. Fitz)
Everglades Vegetation Landscape Succession (Pearlstine et al., 2011) 2.3.1 ENP-SFNRC (L. Pearlstine)
Florida Bay SAV (Madden and McDonald, 2014) 15.1 SFWMD (C. Madden)
Juvenile Spotted Seatrout (Kearney et al., 2015) none NOAA-AOML (C. Kelble)
Mangrove Fish none NOAA-NMFS (J. Serafy)
Prey-Based Freshwater Fish Density Performance Measure (Donalson et al., 2011) none USACE/ENP-SFNRC (J. Trexler, D. Donalson)
Roseate Spoonbill Landscape Suitability Index (Romañach et al., 2011b) 1.0.0 JEM-Audubon (J. Lorenz, S. Romañach)
Slough Vegetation Performance Measure / spatial model (Lo Galbo et al., 2013) 1.0.0 ENP-SFNRC (M. Zimmerman, G. Reynolds) / (G. Reynolds, L. Pearlstine)
WADEM model for Great Egret, White Ibis, Wood Stork (foraging, nesting effort, nesting success) (Beerens et al., 2015a; Beerens et al., 2015b) 1.1 USGS (J. Beerens)
Burmese Python Marsh Habitat Suitability none USGS (J. Beerens)
Crocodile Habitat Suitabiity none USFWS/UF (L. Brandt, F. Mazzotti)
EverVIEW Data Viewer (Romañach et al., 2014) 2.7 JEM (C. Conzelmann, M. McKelvy, S. Romañach)
Biscayne Bay Mangrove Fish - goldspotted killifish HSM (McManus, 2014) none IBBEAM (NOAA-NMFS, NPS BNP, UM RSMAS)
Biscayne Bay Mangrove Fish - yellowfin mojarra HSM none IBBEAM (NOAA-NMFS, NPS BNP, UM RSMAS)
Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Ecological Modeling." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Progress Toward Restoring the Everglades: The Sixth Biennial Review - 2016. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23672.
×
Accepts RSM Input Accepts EDEN Input Accepts BBSM Input Used in Project Planning Date Last Updated
Yes (converted RSM) Yes No Yes 2/14/2014
Yes (converted RSM) Yes No Yes 10/1/2015
Yes (converted RSM) Yes No Yes 8/14/2012
Yes No Yes No unknown
Yes Yes No Yes 8/11/2015
Yes Yes No No 2016
No No No No 2011
Yes (for daily structure flows) N/A N/A Yes 7/15/2015
Yes (converted RSM) Yes No No 10/20/2014
Yes No No Yes 4/1/2016
Yesa No Yes Yes 6/2/2016
Yes No No No unknown
Yes Yes No Yes 2014
No No No No 2011
Yes No No Yes 9/23/2014
Yes Yes No Yes 5/23/2016
Yes Yes No No 2016
No No No Yes 2009
Yes (converted RSM) Yes No Yes 6/4/2015
No No Yes No 5/1/2016
No No Yes No 5/1/2016
Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Ecological Modeling." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Progress Toward Restoring the Everglades: The Sixth Biennial Review - 2016. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23672.
×
Model Version Number Lead (Point of Contact)
Biscayne Bay Mangrove Fish - gray snapper HSM (Serrano et al., 2010) none IBBEAM (NOAA-NMFS, NPS BNP, UM RSMAS)
Biscayne Bay Epifauna - pink shrimp HSM none IBBEAM (NOAA-NMFS, NPS BNP, UM RSMAS)
Biscayne Bay Epifauna -grass shrimp HSM none IBBEAM (NOAA-NMFS, NPS BNP, UM RSMAS)
Biscayne Bay Epifauna - gulf pipefish HSM none IBBEAM (NOAA-NMFS, NPS BNP, UM RSMAS)
Biscayne Bay Epifauna - goldspotted killifish HSM none IBBEAM (NOAA-NMFS, NPS BNP, UM RSMAS)
Biscayne Bay SAV - Thalassia HSM none IBBEAM (NOAA-NMFS, NPS BNP, UM RSMAS)
Biscayne Bay SAV - Halodule HSM none IBBEAM (NOAA-NMFS, NPS BNP, UM RSMAS)
MANTRA - Mangrove-Glycophyte competition model (Teh et al., 2015) none USGS (D. DeAngelis)
GEFISH - spatially expicit Everglades fish model (Yurek, 2013) none USGS (D. DeAngelis)
Melaleuca model, individual-based (Bo Zhang, submitted) none USGS (D. DeAngelis)
Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Ecological Modeling." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Progress Toward Restoring the Everglades: The Sixth Biennial Review - 2016. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23672.
×
Accepts RSM Input Accepts EDEN Input Accepts BBSM Input Used in Project Planning Date Last Updated
No No Yes No 5/1/2016
No No Yes No 5/1/2016
No No Yes No 5/1/2016
No No Yes No 5/1/2016
No No Yes No 5/1/2016
No No Yes No 5/1/2016
No No Yes No 5/1/2016
No No No No 6/1/2015
No No No No 1/1/2016
No No No No 1/1/2016

a This model uses the Marshall et al. (2013) conversions to calculate salinity in Florida Bay from stage heights in the Everglades.

NOTE: This table is intended to provide information about ecological models linked with hydrologic models, and whether they have been used in CERP projects. Information is from federal sources (USACE, NPS, USGS, FWS) and reflects progress as of June 2016.

SOURCE: S. Romañach, USGS, personal communication, 2016.

Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Ecological Modeling." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Progress Toward Restoring the Everglades: The Sixth Biennial Review - 2016. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23672.
×

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Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Ecological Modeling." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Progress Toward Restoring the Everglades: The Sixth Biennial Review - 2016. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23672.
×
Page 231
Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Ecological Modeling." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Progress Toward Restoring the Everglades: The Sixth Biennial Review - 2016. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23672.
×
Page 232
Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Ecological Modeling." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Progress Toward Restoring the Everglades: The Sixth Biennial Review - 2016. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23672.
×
Page 233
Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Ecological Modeling." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Progress Toward Restoring the Everglades: The Sixth Biennial Review - 2016. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23672.
×
Page 234
Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Ecological Modeling." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Progress Toward Restoring the Everglades: The Sixth Biennial Review - 2016. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23672.
×
Page 235
Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Ecological Modeling." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Progress Toward Restoring the Everglades: The Sixth Biennial Review - 2016. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23672.
×
Page 236
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The Everglades ecosystem is vast, stretching more than 200 miles from Orlando to Florida Bay, and Everglades National Park is but a part located at the southern end. During the 19th and 20th centuries, the historical Everglades has been reduced to half of its original size, and what remains is not the pristine ecosystem many image it to be, but one that has been highly engineered and otherwise heavily influenced, and is intensely managed by humans. Rather than slowly flowing southward in a broad river of grass, water moves through a maze of canals, levees, pump stations, and hydraulic control structures, and a substantial fraction is diverted from the natural system to meet water supply and flood control needs. The water that remains is polluted by phosphorus and other contaminants originating from agriculture and other human activities. Many components of the natural system are highly degraded and continue to degrade.

Progress Toward Restoring the Everglades is the sixth biennial review of progress made in meeting the goals of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP). This complex, multibillion-dollar project to protect and restore the remaining Everglades has a 30-40 year timeline. This report assesses progress made in the various separate project components and discusses specific scientific and engineering issues that may impact further progress. According to Progress Toward Restoring the Everglades, a dedicated source of funding could provide ongoing long-term system-wide monitoring and assessment that is critical to meeting restoration objectives. This report examines the implications of knowledge gained and changes in widely accepted scientific understanding regarding pre-drainage hydrology, climate change, and the feasibility of water storage since the CERP was developed.

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