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A I R P O R T C O O P E R A T I V E R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M ACRP RESEARCH REPORT 163 2016 Research sponsored by the Federal Aviation Administration Subscriber Categories Aviation ⢠Design ⢠Planning and Forecasting Guidebook for Preparing and Using Airport Design Day Flight Schedules Patrick Kennon HNTB Arlington, VA Robert Hazel Omar El-Sayed Oliver WymaN, iNc. Washington, DC Frederick Busch JviaTiON iNc. Denver, CO Rose Agnew Christina Coverdell aviaTiON iNNOvaTiON, llc St. Paul, MN Debra Lubin Belmont, CA
AIRPORT COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM Airports are vital national resources. They serve a key role in trans- portation of people and goods and in regional, national, and interna- tional commerce. They are where the nationâs aviation system connects with other modes of transportation and where federal responsibility for managing and regulating air traffic operations intersects with the role of state and local governments that own and operate most airports. Research is necessary to solve common operating problems, to adapt appropriate new technologies from other industries, and to introduce innovations into the airport industry. The Airport Cooperative Research Program (ACRP) serves as one of the principal means by which the airport industry can develop innovative near-term solutions to meet demands placed on it. The need for ACRP was identified in TRB Special Report 272: Airport Research Needs: Cooperative Solutions in 2003, based on a study spon- sored by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). ACRP carries out applied research on problems that are shared by airport operating agen- cies and not being adequately addressed by existing federal research programs. ACRP is modeled after the successful National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) and Transit Cooperative Research Program (TCRP). ACRP undertakes research and other technical activi- ties in various airport subject areas, including design, construction, legal, maintenance, operations, safety, policy, planning, human resources, and administration. ACRP provides a forum where airport operators can cooperatively address common operational problems. ACRP was authorized in December 2003 as part of the Vision 100â Century of Aviation Reauthorization Act. The primary participants in the ACRP are (1) an independent governing board, the ACRP Oversight Committee (AOC), appointed by the Secretary of the U.S. Department of Transportation with representation from airport operating agencies, other stakeholders, and relevant industry organizations such as the Airports Council International-North America (ACI-NA), the American Associa- tion of Airport Executives (AAAE), the National Association of State Aviation Officials (NASAO), Airlines for America (A4A), and the Airport Consultants Council (ACC) as vital links to the airport community; (2) TRB as program manager and secretariat for the governing board; and (3) the FAA as program sponsor. In October 2005, the FAA executed a contract with the National Academy of Sciences formally initiating the program. ACRP benefits from the cooperation and participation of airport professionals, air carriers, shippers, state and local government officials, equipment and service suppliers, other airport users, and research organi- zations. Each of these participants has different interests and responsibili- ties, and each is an integral part of this cooperative research effort. Research problem statements for ACRP are solicited periodically but may be submitted to TRB by anyone at any time. It is the responsibility of the AOC to formulate the research program by identifying the highest priority projects and defining funding levels and expected products. Once selected, each ACRP project is assigned to an expert panel appointed by TRB. Panels include experienced practitioners and research specialists; heavy emphasis is placed on including airport professionals, the intended users of the research products. The panels prepare project statements (requests for proposals), select contractors, and provide technical guidance and counsel throughout the life of the project. The process for developing research problem statements and selecting research agencies has been used by TRB in managing coop- erative research programs since 1962. As in other TRB activities, ACRP project panels serve voluntarily without compensation. Primary emphasis is placed on disseminating ACRP results to the intended users of the research: airport operating agencies, service pro- viders, and academic institutions. ACRP produces a series of research reports for use by airport operators, local agencies, the FAA, and other interested parties; industry associations may arrange for workshops, training aids, field visits, webinars, and other activities to ensure that results are implemented by airport industry practitioners. ACRP RESEARCH REPORT 163 Project 03-32 ISSN 1935-9802 ISBN 978-0-309-44595-5 Library of Congress Control Number 2016954530 © 2016 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. COPYRIGHT INFORMATION Authors herein are responsible for the authenticity of their materials and for obtaining written permissions from publishers or persons who own the copyright to any previously published or copyrighted material used herein. Cooperative Research Programs (CRP) grants permission to reproduce material in this publication for classroom and not-for-profit purposes. Permission is given with the understanding that none of the material will be used to imply TRB, AASHTO, FAA, FHWA, FMCSA, FRA, FTA, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Research and Technology, PHMSA, or TDC endorsement of a particular product, method, or practice. It is expected that those reproducing the material in this document for educational and not-for-profit uses will give appropriate acknowledgment of the source of any reprinted or reproduced material. For other uses of the material, request permission from CRP. NOTICE The research report was reviewed by the technical panel and accepted for publication according to procedures established and overseen by the Transportation Research Board and approved by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. The opinions and conclusions expressed or implied in this report are those of the researchers who performed the research and are not necessarily those of the Transportation Research Board; the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine; or the program sponsors. The Transportation Research Board; the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine; and the sponsors of the Airport Cooperative Research Program do not endorse products or manufacturers. Trade or manufacturersâ names appear herein solely because they are considered essential to the object of the report. Published research reports of the AIRPORT COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM are available from Transportation Research Board Business Office 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 and can be ordered through the Internet by going to http://www.national-academies.org and then searching for TRB Printed in the United States of America
The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, non- governmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., is president. The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president. The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine. Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.national-academies.org. The Transportation Research Board is one of seven major programs of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. The mission of the Transportation Research Board is to increase the benefits that transportation contributes to society by providing leadership in transportation innovation and progress through research and information exchange, conducted within a setting that is objective, interdisciplinary, and multimodal. The Boardâs varied committees, task forces, and panels annually engage about 7,000 engineers, scientists, and other transportation researchers and practitioners from the public and private sectors and academia, all of whom contribute their expertise in the public interest. The program is supported by state transportation departments, federal agencies including the component administrations of the U.S. Department of Transportation, and other organizations and individuals interested in the development of transportation. Learn more about the Transportation Research Board at www.TRB.org.
C O O P E R A T I V E R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M S AUTHOR ACKNOWLEDGMENT The authors wish to express their gratitude and appreciation to the leadership and staff of the airports and consulting firms that took the time to provide detailed reviews and critiques of the draft guidebook. Their insight and recommendations greatly improved this document. The airports and firms included: ⢠San Diego County Regional Airport Authority ⢠Memphis-Shelby County Airport Authority ⢠Minneapolis-St. Paul Metropolitan Airports Commission ⢠Port Authority of New York and New Jersey ⢠Ricondo & Associates, Inc. ⢠Landrum & Brown ⢠LeighFisher, Inc. The authors would also like to gratefully acknowledge the assistance of Greg Albjerg, Kim Hughes, Yue Xu, Ken Reed, and Audrey Wald of HNTB for their contributions to the research underpinning much of this guidebook. We also wish to thank the members of the project panel for their vital support and guidance during the conception, preparation, and completion of this document. CRP STAFF FOR ACRP RESEARCH REPORT 163 Christopher J. Hedges, Interim Director, Cooperative Research Programs Michael R. Salamone, ACRP Manager Marci A. Greenberger, Senior Program Officer Jeffrey Oser, Senior Program Assistant Eileen P. Delaney, Director of Publications Margaret B. Hagood, Editor ACRP PROJECT 03-32 PANEL Field of Policy and Planning Angela Schaefer, Southwest Florida International Airport, Fort Myers, FL (Chair) Steven Baun, AvAirPros, Inc., Coconut Creek, FL Joel Hirsh, Hirsh Associates, Ridgefield, CT Benjamin Leischner, Seattle-Tacoma International Airport, Seattle, WA Wayne G. Sieloff, Wayne County Airport Authority, Detroit, MI Susan J.H. Zellers, Hanson Professional Services, Inc., Indianapolis, IN Danielle J. Rinsler, AICP, FAA Liaison Richard Marchi, RFMarchi Aviation Consulting, Inc. Liaison Christine Gerencher, TRB Liaison
ACRP Research Report 163: Guidebook for Preparing and Using Airport Design Day Flight Schedules is designed to provide airport leaders an understanding of design day flight sched- ules (DDFS) and their uses, while at the same time provide airport staff and consultants with detailed information on how to prepare one. By understanding the assumptions incor- porated into and the information generated from a DDFS, airport decision makers can communicate more effectively with the person or persons preparing the DDFS, the scope, and the results. This guidebook discusses the many different projects where a DDFS can best achieve the objective in planning and simulation modeling. DDFS are used at airports for a number of different purposes, including the planning and programming of airport operations and facilities, airfield and landside modeling, and construction phasing, among others. In addition to a number of inputs, the assumptions that are also used must be well understood by users to fully understand the analysis from the results. Also, like any forecast, uncertainty is inherent in DDFS, and this uncertainty must be recognized and managed. While DDFS are used routinely in the industry, there arenât consistent methods for the development and use of them. One of the purposes of this guidebook is to ensure that users and preparers are fully aware of the advantages and potential pitfalls associated with DDFS. HNTB and their team, as part of ACRP Project 03-32, were selected to develop a guide- book to assist aviation practitioners in the preparation and use of airport DDFS for opera- tions, planning, and development. Part of their research efforts consisted of a literature review, surveys, and interviews with airports, airlines, and consulting firms. The guide- book is written with two audiences in mind: those that use the results and the analysis from a DDFS, and those who have to prepare one. This guidebook will be useful to air- port directors, those in operations and planning, as well as those directly responsible for preparing a DDFS. F O R E W O R D By Marci A. Greenberger Staff Officer Transportation Research Board
1 Summary 3 Chapter 1 Introduction and Overview 3 1.1 Definitions 4 1.2 Guidebook Audience 4 1.3 Guidebook Organization and Summary 11 Chapter 2 What Is a DDFS 11 2.1 Background 11 2.2 Key Elements 14 2.3 Current Uses 16 Chapter 3 When Should DDFSs Be Used 16 3.1 General Guidance 19 3.2 Specific Guidance for Airside Planning 21 3.3 Specific Guidance for Terminal Planning 24 3.4 Specific Guidance for Landside Planning 25 3.5 Specific Guidance for Environmental Planning 27 3.6 Specific Guidance for Operations and Management 28 3.7 Future Considerations for DDFS Use 29 Chapter 4 Which Elements Need to Be Included in a DDFS 29 4.1 Level of Effort 29 4.2 DDFS Requirements by Type of Analysis 30 4.3 Application of Individual DDFS Elements by Type of Analysis 39 Chapter 5 How to Scope a DDFS 39 5.1 Identify the Problem/Issue 39 5.2 Determine If a DDFS Is Useful or Appropriate 39 5.3 Determine Which DDFS Elements Should Be Included 41 5.4 Determine DDFS Timeframe 42 Chapter 6 How to Prepare a DDFS for Base Year and Future Conditions 43 6.1 General Steps for Preparing a DDFS 45 6.2 Setting the Stage 47 6.3 Forecasting Future Passenger Markets and Fleet Mix 53 6.4 Forecasting DDFS Flight Times 57 6.5 Assigning Gates 61 6.6 Forecasting Passengers by Flight 65 6.7 Nonscheduled Aircraft Operations 69 6.8 Application of Constraints 71 6.9 DDFS Updates 71 6.10 Quality Assurance and Control C O N T E N T S
73 Chapter 7 How to Apply DDFS Outputs 73 7.1 Airfield and Airspace Planning 73 7.2 Terminal Building Planning 76 7.3 Landside Planning 76 7.4 Environmental Planning 76 7.5 Airport/Airline Operations and Management 76 7.6 Staffing 77 Chapter 8 How to Address Risk and Uncertainty in DDFSs 77 8.1 Sources of Uncertainty 79 8.2 Evaluation of Uncertainty 79 8.3 Management of Uncertainty 84 Chapter 9 How and When to Communicate DDFS Results 84 9.1 Target Audiences and Level of Detail 86 9.2 Timing of Reporting 87 9.3 Explaining Uncertainty 88 References A-1 Appendix A Case Study Examples from MSP DDFSs B-1 Appendix B Stability and Predictability of Critical DDFS Factors C-1 Appendix C Evaluation of DDFS Uncertainty D-1 Appendix D Confidence Intervals for DDFS Elements E-1 Appendix E DDFS Quality Control Checks F-1 Appendix F Data Sources G-1 Appendix G Glossary
