Transportation Resilience: Adaptation to Climate Change (2016)

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C o n f e r e n C e P r o C e e d i n g s 5 3 Transportation Resilience Adaptation to Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events Summary of the Fourth EU–U.S. Transportation Research Symposium Katherine F. Turnbull Rapporteur June 16–17, 2016 THON Hotel Brussels City Center Brussels, Belgium Organized by the European Commission U.S. Department of Transportation Transportation Research Board Washington, D.C. 2016 www.TRB.org TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD

Transportation Research Board Conference Proceedings 53 ISSN 1073- 1652 ISBN 978-0-309-44147-6 Subscriber Categories Environment; research; security and emergencies; transportation, general Transportation Research Board publications are available by ordering individual publications directly from the TRB Business Office, through the Internet at www.TRB.org or national-academies.org/trb, or by annual subscription through organizational or individual affiliation with TRB. Affiliates and library subscribers are eligible for substantial discounts. For further information, contact the Transportation Research Board Business Office, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Washington, DC 20001 (telephone 202-334-3213; fax 202-334- 2519; or e-mail TRBsales@nas.edu). Printed in the United States of America. NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the National Academy of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the project were chosen for their special competencies and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to the procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the National Academy of Medicine. This project was organized by the European Commission, the U.S. Department of Transportation, and the Transportation Research Board. Planning Committee for the Fourth EU–U.S. Transportation Research Symposium: Transportation Resilience: Adaptation to Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events Alan McKinnon, Kühne Logistics University, Chair Richard Wright, University of Maryland, College Park, Cochair Jennifer Jacobs, University of New Hampshire Michael Meyer, WSP–Parsons Brinckerhoff Alan O’Connor, Roughan & O’Donovan and Trinity College Dublin Gordana Petkovic, Norwegian Public Roads Administration André van Lammeren, Rijkswaterstaat, Netherlands Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment Jeffrey Western, Western Management and Consulting, LLC Liaisons, European Commission Alessandro Damiani Frank Smit Maria Cristina Marolda Liaisons, U.S. Department of Transportation Kevin C. Womack Alasdair Cain Transportation Research Board Staff Monica Starnes, Senior Program Officer, Management, Policy, and International Relations Michael Miller, Senior Program Associate TRB Publications Office Elaine Eldridge, Editor Janet McNaughton, Senior Editor Mary McLaughlin, Proofreader Jennifer J. Weeks, Publishing Projects Manager Juanita L. Green, Production Manager Cover design by Beth Schlenoff, Beth Schlenoff Design Typesetting by Carol Siegel

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vPreface This document summarizes Transportation Resilience: Adaptation to Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events, a symposium held June 16–17 at the THON Hotel Brussels City Center in Brussels, Belgium. This symposium was the fourth annual symposium sponsored by the European Commission and the U.S. Department of Transportation and organized by the Transportation Research Board (TRB) of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. The goals of the symposia are to promote common understanding, efficiencies, and trans-Atlantic cooperation within the international transportation research community while accelerating transport-sector innovation in the European Union (EU) and the United States. The two-day, invitation-only symposium brought together high-level experts to share their views on dis- ruptions to the transportation system resulting from climate change and extreme weather events. With the goal of fostering trans-Atlantic collaboration in research and deployment, symposium participants discussed the technical, financial, and policy challenges to better plan, design, and operate the transportation network before, during, and after extreme and/or long-term climate events. A bilateral planning committee was assembled by TRB and appointed by the National Research Council (NRC) to organize and develop the symposium program. The planning committee was chaired by Alan McKin- non from Kühne Logistics University. Richard (“Dick”) Wright, University of Maryland, College Park, served as cochair. Committee members provided expertise in public road and transit systems, ports, waterways, air- ports, finance, risk management, and environmental concerns. The planning committee was responsible for organizing the symposium, identifying speakers, com- missioning a white paper, and developing three future case scenarios to facilitate discussion. The white paper is provided in Appendix A, and the case scenarios are presented in Appendixes B, C, and D. New readers may find it advantageous to review the white paper and sce- narios first to more fully understand the discussion in the breakout groups. The future case scenarios—rising sea level, river and storm flooding, and drought and extreme tempera- tures—were developed by the planning committee to help frame discussions in the breakout groups. The breakout groups addressed managing risk, minimiz- ing disruptions during extreme events, and facilitat- ing recovery. The breakout group discussions focused on identifying challenges, managing challenges, and research topics appropriate for EU–U.S. collaboration. The symposium’s interactive format enabled ongo- ing input from the assembled experts. The symposium began with keynote presentations by Jan Hendrik Dronkers from Rijkswaterstaat and Donald Weubbles from the University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign, who is currently on assignment to the Office of Science and Technology Policy, Executive Office of the Presi- dent. The white paper prepared for the symposium was also presented in the opening session. The breakout sessions followed a common format. First, members of

vi the planning committee summarized the key elements of the future case scenarios. Second, breakout group participants discussed challenges, managing those chal- lenges, and potential research topics. Third, the rap- porteurs for each breakout group summarized the key discussion points in a general session. The symposium concluded with panels that included EU, U.S. Depart- ment of Transportation, and TRB representatives. This report, prepared by symposium rapporteur Katherine F. Turnbull of the Texas A&M Transporta- tion Institute, is a compilation of the presentations and a factual summary of the ensuing discussions at the event. The planning committee was responsible solely for organizing the conference, identifying speakers, and developing breakout session topics. The views con- tained in the report are those of individual symposium participants and do not necessarily represent the views of all participants, the planning committee, TRB, the European Commission, the U.S. Department of Trans- portation, or the NRC. This report has been reviewed in draft form by indi- viduals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purposes of this independent review are to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making the published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the project charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the process. TRB thanks the following individuals for their review of this report: Ángel Aparicio, Technical University of Madrid, Spain; Heather Holsinger, U.S. Federal Highway Administration; Beatriz Martinez Pastor, Trinity Col- lege, Dublin, Ireland; and Michael Meyer, WSP–Parsons Brinckerhoff, Inc. Although these four reviewers provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they did not see the final draft of the summary before its release. The review of this summary was overseen by Susan Hanson of Clark University (emerita). Appointed by the NRC, she was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this summary was per- formed in accordance with established procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Karen Febey, TRB Senior Report Review Officer, man- aged the review process. Responsibility for the final con- tent of this summary rests entirely with the authors and the institution. T R A N S P O R T A T I O N R E S I L I E N C E

vii Acronyms AASHTO American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials BCA benefit–cost analysis CCCEF Center for Climate Change and Environmental Forecasting CEDR Conference of European Directors of Roads CH4 methane CO2 carbon dioxide F Fahrenheit EU European Union FAA Federal Aviation Administration FAST Act Fixing America’s Surface Transportation Act FHWA Federal Highway Administration GHG greenhouse gas ICS incident command system IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IT information technology NCA National Climate Assessment NCHRP National Cooperative Highway Research Program N2O nitrous oxide NRC National Research Council NWS National Weather Service OST-R Office of the Assistant Secretary for Research and Technology ppm parts per million RBTAM risk-based transportation asset management R&D research and development SHA Maryland State Highway Administration STA state transportation agency TRB Transportation Research Board U.S. DOT United States Department of Transportation

Contents WELCOME AND INTRODUCTORY REMARKS ................................................................................ 1 OPENING PLENARY SESSION ............................................................................................................. 4 Keynote Presentation 1—Resilient Transport System: An Ongoing and Multistakeholder Responsibility ............................................................................... 4 Jan Hendrik Dronkers Keynote Presentation 2—The Changing Climate: The Science and How It Affects Transportation .....7 Donald Wuebbles White Paper Presentation—Transportation Resilience: Adaptation to Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events ....................................................................................................................10 Lori Tavasszy Session 1 MANAGING THE RISK ....................................................................................................................... 12 Presentation of First Case Scenario: Rising Sea Level ..........................................................................12 Gordana Petkovic and Rebecca Lupes Breakout Group A ..............................................................................................................................14 André van Lammeren Breakout Group B ...............................................................................................................................15 Alan McKinnon Breakout Group C ..............................................................................................................................16 Jennifer Jacobs Breakout Group D ..............................................................................................................................17 Richard Wright Session 2 MINIMIZING DISRUPTION DURING EXTREME EVENTS ............................................................ 19 Presentation of Second Case Scenario: River and Storm Flooding ......................................................19 Jennifer Jacobs and André van Lammeren Breakout Group A ..............................................................................................................................20 Alan O’Connor

Breakout Group B ...............................................................................................................................21 Alan McKinnon Breakout Group C ..............................................................................................................................21 Sam Merrill Breakout Group D ..............................................................................................................................22 Gordana Petkovic Session 3 RECOVERY .......................................................................................................................................... 24 Presentation of Third Case Scenario: Drought, Heat, and Extreme Temperatures ..............................24 Michael Meyer and Alan O’Connor Breakout Group A ..............................................................................................................................26 André van Lammeren Breakout Group B ...............................................................................................................................27 Alan McKinnon Breakout Group C ..............................................................................................................................28 Susanne DesRoches Breakout Group D ..............................................................................................................................28 Richard Wright CLOSING SESSION AND FINAL REMARKS ..................................................................................... 30 Sponsor Comments .............................................................................................................................30 Keir Fitch, Alasdair Cain, and Neil Pedersen Participant Comments .........................................................................................................................32 Vicki Arroyo, Thomas Wakeman, Rachel Burbidge, Thomas Bles, Robert Lempert, and Evangelos Mitsakis Closing Comments from Sponsors ......................................................................................................35 Magdalena Kopczynska, Kevin Womack, and Neil Pedersen POTENTIAL PORTFOLIO FOR EU–U.S. RESEARCH ON TRANSPORTATION RESILIENCE ..... 37 Katherine F. Turnbull APPENDIXES A. WHITE PAPER Transportation Resilience: Adaptation to Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events .................40 H. G. Schwartz, Jr., and Lori Tavasszy B. SCENARIO 1: SEA LEVEL RISE .................................................................................................... 61 C. SCENARIO 2: MINIMIZING DISRUPTION DURING EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS .......... 69 D. SCENARIO 3: DROUGHT, HEAT, AND EXTREME TEMPERATURES ................................... 77 E. PROGRAM ..................................................................................................................................... 83 F. SYMPOSIUM ATTENDEES ........................................................................................................... 85