Runway Protection Zones (RPZs) Risk Assessment Tool Users’ Guide (2016)

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A I R P O R T C O O P E R A T I V E R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M ACRP RESEARCH REPORT 168 Runway Protection Zones (RPZs) Risk Assessment Tool Users’ Guide Hamid Shirazi Jim Hall Beattie Williams Stephen Moser Dorothy Boswell Marshall Hardy Richard Speir Endri Mustafa Robin Jones Applied ReseARch AssociAtes, inc. Elkridge, MD Mark Johnson Colleen Quinn Patrick Hickman David Ramacorti Ricondo & AssociAtes Chicago, IL Stephanie Ward Morgan Turner MeAd & hunt Lansing, MI Joanne Landry lAndRy consultAnts Seattle, WA Ali Mosleh univeRsity of cAlifoRniA At los Angeles Los Angeles, CA 2017 Research sponsored by the Federal Aviation Administration Subscriber Categories Aviation • Planning and Forecasting

AIRPORT COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM Airports are vital national resources. They serve a key role in trans- portation of people and goods and in regional, national, and interna- tional commerce. They are where the nation’s aviation system connects with other modes of transportation and where federal responsibility for managing and regulating air traffic operations intersects with the role of state and local governments that own and operate most airports. Research is necessary to solve common operating problems, to adapt appropriate new technologies from other industries, and to introduce innovations into the airport industry. The Airport Cooperative Research Program (ACRP) serves as one of the principal means by which the airport industry can develop innovative near-term solutions to meet demands placed on it. The need for ACRP was identified in TRB Special Report 272: Airport Research Needs: Cooperative Solutions in 2003, based on a study spon- sored by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). ACRP carries out applied research on problems that are shared by airport operating agen- cies and not being adequately addressed by existing federal research programs. ACRP is modeled after the successful National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) and Transit Cooperative Research Program (TCRP). ACRP undertakes research and other technical activi- ties in various airport subject areas, including design, construction, legal, maintenance, operations, safety, policy, planning, human resources, and administration. ACRP provides a forum where airport operators can cooperatively address common operational problems. ACRP was authorized in December 2003 as part of the Vision 100— Century of Aviation Reauthorization Act. The primary participants in the ACRP are (1) an independent governing board, the ACRP Oversight Committee (AOC), appointed by the Secretary of the U.S. Department of Transportation with representation from airport operating agencies, other stakeholders, and relevant industry organizations such as the Airports Council International-North America (ACI-NA), the American Associa- tion of Airport Executives (AAAE), the National Association of State Aviation Officials (NASAO), Airlines for America (A4A), and the Airport Consultants Council (ACC) as vital links to the airport community; (2) TRB as program manager and secretariat for the governing board; and (3) the FAA as program sponsor. In October 2005, the FAA executed a contract with the National Academy of Sciences formally initiating the program. ACRP benefits from the cooperation and participation of airport professionals, air carriers, shippers, state and local government officials, equipment and service suppliers, other airport users, and research organi- zations. Each of these participants has different interests and responsibili- ties, and each is an integral part of this cooperative research effort. Research problem statements for ACRP are solicited periodically but may be submitted to TRB by anyone at any time. It is the responsibility of the AOC to formulate the research program by identifying the highest priority projects and defining funding levels and expected products. Once selected, each ACRP project is assigned to an expert panel appointed by TRB. Panels include experienced practitioners and research specialists; heavy emphasis is placed on including airport professionals, the intended users of the research products. The panels prepare project statements (requests for proposals), select contractors, and provide technical guidance and counsel throughout the life of the project. The process for developing research problem statements and selecting research agencies has been used by TRB in managing coop- erative research programs since 1962. As in other TRB activities, ACRP project panels serve voluntarily without compensation. Primary emphasis is placed on disseminating ACRP results to the intended users of the research: airport operating agencies, service pro- viders, and academic institutions. ACRP produces a series of research reports for use by airport operators, local agencies, the FAA, and other interested parties; industry associations may arrange for workshops, training aids, field visits, webinars, and other activities to ensure that results are implemented by airport industry practitioners. ACRP RESEARCH REPORT 168 Project 04-18 ISSN 1935-9802 ISBN 978-0-309-44607-5 Library of Congress Control Number 2016959641 © 2017 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. COPYRIGHT INFORMATION Authors herein are responsible for the authenticity of their materials and for obtaining written permissions from publishers or persons who own the copyright to any previously published or copyrighted material used herein. Cooperative Research Programs (CRP) grants permission to reproduce material in this publication for classroom and not-for-profit purposes. Permission is given with the understanding that none of the material will be used to imply TRB, AASHTO, FAA, FHWA, FMCSA, FRA, FTA, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Research and Technology, PHMSA, or TDC endorsement of a particular product, method, or practice. It is expected that those reproducing the material in this document for educational and not-for-profit uses will give appropriate acknowledgment of the source of any reprinted or reproduced material. For other uses of the material, request permission from CRP. NOTICE The research report was reviewed by the technical panel and accepted for publication according to procedures established and overseen by the Transportation Research Board and approved by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. The opinions and conclusions expressed or implied in this report are those of the researchers who performed the research and are not necessarily those of the Transportation Research Board; the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine; or the program sponsors. The Transportation Research Board; the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine; and the sponsors of the Airport Cooperative Research Program do not endorse products or manufacturers. Trade or manufacturers’ names appear herein solely because they are considered essential to the object of the report. Published research reports of the AIRPORT COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM are available from Transportation Research Board Business Office 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 and can be ordered through the Internet by going to http://www.national-academies.org and then searching for TRB Printed in the United States of America þÿRunway Protection Zones (RPZs) Risk Assessment Tool Users  Guide Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, non- governmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., is president. The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president. The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine. Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.national-academies.org. The Transportation Research Board is one of seven major programs of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. The mission of the Transportation Research Board is to increase the benefits that transportation contributes to society by providing leadership in transportation innovation and progress through research and information exchange, conducted within a setting that is objective, interdisciplinary, and multimodal. The Board’s varied committees, task forces, and panels annually engage about 7,000 engineers, scientists, and other transportation researchers and practitioners from the public and private sectors and academia, all of whom contribute their expertise in the public interest. The program is supported by state transportation departments, federal agencies including the component administrations of the U.S. Department of Transportation, and other organizations and individuals interested in the development of transportation. Learn more about the Transportation Research Board at www.TRB.org. þÿRunway Protection Zones (RPZs) Risk Assessment Tool Users  Guide Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

C O O P E R A T I V E R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M S AUTHOR ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The research reported herein was performed under ACRP Project 04-18 by Applied Research Associates, Inc. (ARA), Ricondo & Associates (R&A), Mead & Hunt, Dr. Ali Mosleh (of UCLA), and Landry Consultants. ARA was the prime contractor for this study. Dr. Jim Hall, P.E., Principal Engineer at ARA, was the Principal Investigator and Mr. Hamid Shirazi, P.E., Principal Engineer at ARA, was the Project Manager. The research team included Ms. Beattie Williams, Mr. Stephen Moser, and Ms. Dorothy Boswell of ARA. Mr. Mark Johnson, Ms. Colleen Quinn, Mr. Patrick Hickman, and Mr. David Ramacorti of R&A; Mr. Marshall Hardy, Mr. Rich Speir, Mr. Endri Mustafa, and Ms. Robin Jones of ARA; Ms. Stephanie Ward and Ms. Morgan Turner of Mead & Hunt; Ms. Joanne Landry; and Dr. Ali Mosleh collaborated in develop- ing this research and the project report and the users’ guide. CRP STAFF FOR ACRP RESEARCH REPORT 168 Christopher J. Hedges, Director, Cooperative Research Programs Michael R. Salamone, ACRP Manager Marci A. Greenberger, Senior Program Officer Jeffrey Oser, Program Coordinator Eileen P. Delaney, Director of Publications Hilary Freer, Senior Editor ACRP PROJECT 04-18 PANEL Field of Safety David Bannard, Foley & Lardner LLP, Boston, MA (Chair) Paul Esposito, STAR Consultants, Inc., Arnold, MD Jennifer M. Fuller, North Carolina DOT, Raleigh, NC Dawn Mehler, Plantation, FL Roger Studenski, Jacksonville Aviation Authority, Jacksonville, FL Steve Debban, FAA Liaison Jorge E. Panteli, FAA Liaison Richard Marchi, RFMarchi Aviation Consulting, Inc. Liaison Stephen F. Maher, TRB Liaison þÿRunway Protection Zones (RPZs) Risk Assessment Tool Users  Guide Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

Although runway protection zones (RPZs) are supposed to be clear of structures and people, it is still common for activities to occur within an RPZ for many reasons, and these reasons can be beyond the control of the airport operator. This Users’ Guide (ACRP Research Report 168) and risk assessment tool have been developed under ACRP Project 04-18 to help airport operators conduct risk assessments in RPZs. The tool can be used to assess the risk of an aircraft accident within an RPZ and, based on the output, assess the risk to people and property, based on land use and population density. The tool (as well as a PDF version of the Users’ Guide), which will be beneficial to airport planners and operations, can be found at http://www.trb.org/Main/Blurbs/174951.aspx. The FAA has identified critical safety areas that airport operators need to maintain to spe- cific standards so as to protect aircraft, passengers, people, and property. The runway safety area (RSA) is designed to protect aircraft using the runway, while the runway protection zone (RPZ) is designed to enhance the protection of people and property on the ground. Airport operators need to understand the risks of activities that occur within RPZs so that mitigation strategies can be developed. Applied Research Associates (ARA), as part of ACRP Project 04-18, was selected to develop a tool to assess the risk of an aircraft accident within the RPZ, and, based on that output, assess the risk to people and property, considering the population density and land use. The tool relies on a wealth of airport-specific data to assess the risk. When information is not available, the tool makes it possible to obtain estimates using simplifying assump- tions. This Users’ Guide also provides direction on where information can be obtained so as to make the tool immediately useful. The tool can be used to run scenarios for planning around an RPZ or if changes are being considered (e.g., a change in the threshold, extending a runway, removing a hazard, and planning for a new runway). Ideally, the Users’ Guide should be read before starting to use the tool. For background on the development of the tool, see the Contractor’s Final Report on the TRB website (www.trb.org/acrp). F O R E W O R D By Marci A. Greenberger Staff Officer Transportation Research Board þÿRunway Protection Zones (RPZs) Risk Assessment Tool Users  Guide Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

1 Chapter 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Background 2 1.2 Objective 3 1.3 How to Use This Guidebook 4 1.4 Definitions 6 Chapter 2 Risk Assessment and Safety Risk Management (SRM) 6 2.1 SRM Concepts 7 2.2 Applying SRM 10 2.3 Acceptable Level of Risk 12 Chapter 3 Gathering Software Tool Input Data 12 3.1 Airport Data 13 3.2 Airport Movements; Normal Operation Data (NOD) File 15 3.3 Weather Data Input File 18 3.4 Land Use and Population Data 21 Chapter 4 Getting Started with RPZ_RAT 21 4.1 Installing the Software Tool 21 4.2 Operating the Software Tool 23 4.3 Entering Runway Data 26 4.4 Generating RPZ Crash Likelihood Contours 27 4.5 Entering Land Uses and Conducting Risk Analysis 29 4.6 Useful Software Tool Features 32 Chapter 5 Understanding Analysis Results 32 5.1 Crash Likelihood Contours 32 5.2 Excel Output File 37 Chapter 6 Case Study Airport 37 6.1 Case Study Purpose 37 6.2 Case Study Airport Description 39 6.3 Preparing Input Files for RPZ_RAT 43 6.4 Existing Land Uses within RPZs 48 6.5 Interpretation of RPZ_RAT Results 55 6.6 Potential Benefits of Analysis Findings 56 Chapter 7 RPZ Risk Mitigation Strategies 56 7.1 Securing Control of the RPZ 58 7.2 Management of RPZ upon Securing Control 58 7.3 Factors Influencing Mitigation Measure Selection 61 Chapter 8 Airport Safety Management System (SMS) and RPZ Risk 64 References 65 Appendix A Uniform Building Code C O N T E N T S þÿRunway Protection Zones (RPZs) Risk Assessment Tool Users  Guide Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.