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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Antarctic Sea Ice Variability in the Southern Ocean-Climate System: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24696.
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Antarctic Sea Ice Variability
in the Southern
Ocean-Climate System

Proceedings of a Workshop

Alison Macalady and Katie Thomas, Rapporteurs

Polar Research Board

Ocean Studies Board

Division on Earth and Life Studies

image

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, DC
www.nap.edu

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Antarctic Sea Ice Variability in the Southern Ocean-Climate System: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24696.
×

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001

This project was supported by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (Award No. NNX15AP72G) and the National Science Foundation (Award No. PLR-1540067). Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project.

International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-45600-5
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-45600-2
Digital Object Identifier: 10.17226/24696

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Copyright 2017 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

Printed in the United States of America

Cover credit: Edge of an ice shelf in Adelaide Island, off the Antarctic Peninsula. NASA/Maria-Jose Vinas.

Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Antarctic Sea Ice Variability in the Southern Ocean-Climate System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24696.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Antarctic Sea Ice Variability in the Southern Ocean-Climate System: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24696.
×

image

The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, nongovernmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president.

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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Antarctic Sea Ice Variability in the Southern Ocean-Climate System: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24696.
×

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Reports document the evidence-based consensus of an authoring committee of experts. Reports typically include findings, conclusions, and recommendations based on information gathered by the committee and committee deliberations. Reports are peer reviewed and are approved by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine.

Proceedings chronicle the presentations and discussions at a workshop, symposium, or other convening event. The statements and opinions contained in proceedings are those of the participants and have not been endorsed by other participants, the planning committee, or the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine.

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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Antarctic Sea Ice Variability in the Southern Ocean-Climate System: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24696.
×

PLANNING COMMITTEE ON ANTARCTIC SEA ICE VARIABILITY IN THE SOUTHERN CLIMATE-OCEAN SYSTEM

JULIENNE STROEVE (Chair), University of Colorado Boulder

DAVID HOLLAND, New York University, New York

MARIKA HOLLAND, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

TED MAKSYM, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts

MARILYN RAPHAEL, University of California, Los Angeles

SUSAN SOLOMON, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge

XIAOJUN YUAN, Columbia University, Palisades, New York

National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff

KATIE THOMAS, Senior Program Officer, Polar Research Board

ALISON MACALADY, Program Officer, Polar Research Board (until August 2016)

AMANDA STAUDT, Director, Polar Research Board

YASMIN ROMITTI, Research Associate, Polar Research Board

ROB GREENWAY, Program Associate, Polar Research Board

MICHAEL HUDSON, Senior Program Assistant, Polar Research Board

SHELLY FREELAND, Financial Associate, Polar Research Board

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Antarctic Sea Ice Variability in the Southern Ocean-Climate System: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24696.
×

POLAR RESEARCH BOARD

JULIE BRIGHAM-GRETTE (Chair), University of Massachusetts Amherst

WALEED ABDALATI, University of Colorado Boulder

SRIDHAR ANANDAKRISHNAN, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park

KATEY WALTER ANTHONY, University of Alaska, Fairbanks

BETSY BAKER, Vermont Law School, South Royalton

JOHN CASSANO, University of Colorado Boulder

SARA B. DAS, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts

JENNIFER A. FRANCIS, Rutgers University, Marion, Massachusetts

EILEEN E. HOFMANN, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, Virginia

BRENDAN KELLY, Monterey Bay Aquarium, Monterey, California

JOHN KOVAC, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts

NANCY G. MAYNARD, University of Miami, Coral Gables, Florida

GEORGE B. NEWTON, U.S. Arctic Research Commission, Marstons Mills, Massachusetts

RAFE POMERANCE, Independent Consultant, Washington, District of Colombia

GAIUS (GUS) R. SHAVER, Marine Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole, Massachusetts

Ex-Officio

LARRY D. HINZMAN, University of Alaska, Fairbanks

DENEB KARENTZ, University of San Francisco, San Francisco, California

TERRY WILSON, The Ohio State University, Columbus

National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff

AMANDA STAUDT, Board Director

LAURIE GELLER, Program Director

KATIE THOMAS, Senior Program Officer

LAUREN EVERETT, Program Officer

ALISON MACALADY, Program Officer (until August 2016)

AMANDA PURCELL, Associate Program Officer

YASMIN ROMITTI, Research Associate

RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator

ROB GREENWAY, Program Associate

MICHAEL HUDSON, Senior Program Assistant

SHELLY FREELAND, Financial Associate

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Antarctic Sea Ice Variability in the Southern Ocean-Climate System: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24696.
×

OCEAN STUDIES BOARD

LARRY A. MAYER (Chair), University of New Hampshire, Durham

E. VIRGINIA ARMBRUST, University of Washington, Seattle

KEVIN R. ARRIGO, Stanford University, Stanford, California

CLAUDIA BENITEZ-NELSON, University of South Carolina, Columbia

RITA R. COLWELL, University of Maryland, College Park

SARAH W. COOKSEY, State of Delaware, Dover

JAMES A. ESTES, University of California, Santa Cruz

DAVID HALPERN, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California

PATRICK HEIMBACH, The University of Texas at Austin

SUSAN E. HUMPHRIS, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts

BONNIE J. MCCAY, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey

S. BRADLEY MORAN, University of Alaska, Fairbanks

STEVEN A. MURAWSKI, University of South Florida, St. Petersburg

JOHN A. ORCUTT, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California

H. TUBA ÖZKAN-HALLER, Oregon State University, Corvallis

MARTIN D. SMITH, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina

MARGARET SPRING, Monterey Bay Aquarium, Monterey, California

DOUGLAS WARTZOK, Florida International University, Miami

LISA D. WHITE, University of California, Berkeley, and San Francisco State University

ROBERT S. WINOKUR, Michigan Tech Research Institute, Silver Spring, Maryland

National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff

SUSAN ROBERTS, Director

STACEE KARRAS, Program Officer

EMILY TWIGG, Associate Program Officer

PAMELA LEWIS, Administrative Coordinator

ALLIE PHILLIPS, Program Assistant

SHUBHA BANSKOTA, Financial Associate

JAMES HEISS, Postdoctoral Fellow

Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Antarctic Sea Ice Variability in the Southern Ocean-Climate System: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24696.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Antarctic Sea Ice Variability in the Southern Ocean-Climate System: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24696.
×

Acknowledgments

This Proceedings of a Workshop has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published Proceedings of a Workshop as sound as possible and to ensure that the Proceedings of a Workshop meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this Proceedings of a Workshop:

Ian Allison, University of Tasmania, Australia

Elizabeth Hunke, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Santa Fe, NM

Claire Parkinson, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD

Marilyn Raphael, University of California, Los Angeles

Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they did not see the final draft of the Proceedings of a Workshop before its release. The review of this Proceedings of a Workshop was overseen by William Berry Lyons, The Ohio State University, who was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this Proceedings of a Workshop was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this Proceedings of a Workshop rests entirely with the rapporteurs and the institution.

The planning committee would like to thank the staff at the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences at the University of Colorado Boulder for graciously hosting the workshop. Special thanks are also due to those who gave plenary presentations, were note-takers, or were rapporteurs for the breakout groups.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Antarctic Sea Ice Variability in the Southern Ocean-Climate System: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24696.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Antarctic Sea Ice Variability in the Southern Ocean-Climate System: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24696.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Antarctic Sea Ice Variability in the Southern Ocean-Climate System: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24696.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Antarctic Sea Ice Variability in the Southern Ocean-Climate System: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24696.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Antarctic Sea Ice Variability in the Southern Ocean-Climate System: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24696.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Antarctic Sea Ice Variability in the Southern Ocean-Climate System: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24696.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Antarctic Sea Ice Variability in the Southern Ocean-Climate System: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24696.
×
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Antarctic Sea Ice Variability in the Southern Ocean-Climate System: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24696.
×
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Antarctic Sea Ice Variability in the Southern Ocean-Climate System: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24696.
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Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Antarctic Sea Ice Variability in the Southern Ocean-Climate System: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24696.
×
Page R8
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Antarctic Sea Ice Variability in the Southern Ocean-Climate System: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24696.
×
Page R9
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Antarctic Sea Ice Variability in the Southern Ocean-Climate System: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24696.
×
Page R10
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Antarctic Sea Ice Variability in the Southern Ocean-Climate System: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24696.
×
Page R11
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Antarctic Sea Ice Variability in the Southern Ocean-Climate System: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24696.
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The sea ice surrounding Antarctica has increased in extent and concentration from the late 1970s, when satellite-based measurements began, until 2015. Although this increasing trend is modest, it is surprising given the overall warming of the global climate and the region. Indeed, climate models, which incorporate our best understanding of the processes affecting the region, generally simulate a decrease in sea ice. Moreover, sea ice in the Arctic has exhibited pronounced declines over the same period, consistent with global climate model simulations. For these reasons, the behavior of Antarctic sea ice has presented a conundrum for global climate change science.

The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine held a workshop in January 2016, to bring together scientists with different sets of expertise and perspectives to further explore potential mechanisms driving the evolution of recent Antarctic sea ice variability and to discuss ways to advance understanding of Antarctic sea ice and its relationship to the broader ocean-climate system. This publication summarizes the presentations and discussions from the workshop.

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