Development of a NOx Chemistry Module for EDMS/AEDT to Predict NO2 Concentrations (2017)

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iv  Executive Summary  The ACRP 02-43 Research Project: Development of a NOx Chemistry Module for EDMS/AEDT to Predict NO2 Concentrations was undertaken due to concern that existing methods used to predict NO2 concentrations at airports may be inaccurate. The research project was aimed at three primary objectives: ACRP 02‐43 Objectives   Assess Accuracy - Assess the accuracy of the NOx emissions and speciation methods used in FAA’s EDMS/AEDT models and the U.S. EPA AERMOD model to predict NO2 concentrations near airports;  Alternative Methods - Develop and assess alternative methods (including at least one involving the NO, NO2, and O3 “photostationary state”; and  Preferred Method - From the work to assess alternative methods, produce a Preferred Method for predicting NO2 concentrations resulting from airport emissions. The products of the Research: (i.) a Final Report entitled Development of NOx Chemistry Module for EDMS/AEDT to Predict NO2 Concentrations, (ii.) a Preferred Method and (iii.) a computer module for the Preferred Method will help to ensure that the underlying mechanics and predictive accuracies of FAA’s EDMS/AEDT and EPA’s AERMOD are appropriate for airports and are as accurate as possible. Key Targets  The Research goals are also focused on several “Key” targets:  Reasonable Data Requirements  - Reasonable input data requirements should (i.) allow for easier use of the model by modelers and (ii.) more frequent and consistent use of the method.  Technically Defensible Methodology - The Preferred Method should be technically defensible and supported with back-up data and information demonstrating its applicability and accuracy.  Computational Requirements - The Preferred Method should be computationally streamlined so that software and hardware requirements and runtimes are appropriate by most users.  Reasonable Accuracy - The Preferred Method should be as accurate as possible and produce results that are comparable to other similar modeling applications.  Compatible with EDMS/AEDT/AERMOD - The Preferred Method should be either adoptable within, or work in conjunction with, AERMOD and in the EDMS/AEDT models. Importantly, the Research is primarily focused on modeling of short-term (i.e., one-hour) NO2 concentrations, commensurate with the promulgation of the new NAAQS for this pollutant. Preferred Method  In support of the Research, a substantial number and wide array of models and methods were analyzed using monitor-to-model and model-to-model comparisons of airport-related NOx/NO2 ratios and the resultant NO2 concentrations. Based upon the outcomes of the Research, a recommended Preferred Method for simulating the NO2/NOx formation and dispersion characteristics was developed as a module for use in the EDMS/AEDT-AERMOD software package. This module is called the ARM2-Airport Module and the computer software for its adoption into EDMS/AEDT-AERMOD is included as part of the Research. Additional Research  During the course of this Research, a number of needs, or “gaps,” were identified for potential ACRP research, with specific recommendations for further advancing the model simulation of how airport- related NOx is dispersed from airports and the transition mechanisms by which NO2 is formed in airport environs.

v  Table of Contents  Section  Page    1.0 Introduction and Purpose ........................................................................................................ 1 1.1 Research Objectives ................................................................................................. 1 1.2 Research Program .................................................................................................... 1 1.3 Preferred Method Key Targets ................................................................................ 2 2.0 Background Information ....................................................................................................... 3 2.1 Emission Indices ...................................................................................................... 3 2.2 Emission Ratios ....................................................................................................... 4 2.3 Plume Chemistry ...................................................................................................... 5 2.4 Airport Dispersion Modeling ................................................................................... 6 3.0 Assessments of Models/Methods .......................................................................................... 6 3.1 EDMS/AEDT and AERMOD.................................................................................. 7 3.2 Alternative Models and Methods ............................................................................. 8 3.3 Model/Method Performance Characteristics ........................................................... 9 3.4 Performance Characteristics of AERMOD, ARM, OLM and PVMRM ................. 15 4.0 Modeled vs Measured NO2 Data .......................................................................................... 16 4.1 Case-Study Airports ................................................................................................. 16 4.2 Modeling Methodology ........................................................................................... 17 4.3 Statistical Analyses .................................................................................................. 17 4.4 Case-Study Results .................................................................................................. 25 5.0 Modeled vs Modeled NO2 Comparisons .............................................................................. 26 6.0 NOx Chemistry Methods (including the Photostationary State) ........................................... 29 6.1 Method 1 (Simple Regression-Unconstrained and Constrained) ............................ 32 6.2 Method 2 (Multivariable Regression) Equation ..................................................... 41 6.3 Method 3 (Photostationary State), Equation 1 (Analytically-derived) and 2 (Adjusted) ............................................................................................................... 49 6.4 Preferred Method Recommendation ........................................................................ 54 7.0 Module Development............................................................................................................ 56 8.0 Independent Technical Review ............................................................................................. 57 8.1 The Reviewers ......................................................................................................... 57 8.2 The Independent Technical Review Process ........................................................... 58 8.3 Results of the Independent Technical Review ......................................................... 58 8.4 Conclusion of the Independent Technical Review .................................................. 59 9.0 Future Research Needs ......................................................................................................... 59

vi  Table of Contents (cont.)    List of Tables Table                                 Page    1 EDMS/AEDT Emission Indices for NOx ............................................................................. 3 2 NO2/NOx Emission Ratios for Airport Emission Sources .................................................... 4 3 Overview of Model Properties and Characteristics .............................................................. 13 4 Overview and Comparison of AERMOD and Alternative Model Assets and Limitations .. 14 5 Air Monitoring Time Periods ................................................................................................ 17 6 RHC: Monitored NO2 vs. Modeled NO2 (ppb): ADL ........................................................... 24 7 Mean Squared Error (ppb): ADL .......................................................................................... 25 8 NO2/NOx Methods ................................................................................................................ 30 9 Selected Equations for Comparisons of Modeled and Measured NO2/NOx Values ............. 31 Appendices  Appendix                               Page    A. Interim Report (Including References) ............................................................................... A1 B. Air Monitoring Data Analyses ............................................................................................. B1 C. Modeled vs. Monitored Data Analyses ................................................................................ C1