SOCIAL AND BEHAVIORAL
SCIENCES FOR NATIONAL
SECURITY

Proceedings of a Summit

Julie Anne Schuck, Rapporteur

Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences

Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, DC
www.nap.edu

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001

This activity was supported by Contract No. 2014-14041100003-009 between the National Academy of Sciences and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project.

International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-45652-4
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-45652-5
Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/24710

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Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. (2017). Social and Behavioral Sciences for National Security: Proceedings of a Summit. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: https://doi.org/10.17226/24710.

STEERING COMMITTEE FOR SOCIAL AND BEHAVIORAL SCIENCES FOR NATIONAL SECURITY SUMMIT

SALLIE KELLER (Chair), Department of Statistics, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University

THOMAS FINGAR, Walter H. Shorenstein Asia Pacific Research Center, Stanford University

STEVEN E. HYMAN, Stanley Center for Psychiatric Research, Broad Institute of Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Harvard University

VALERIE REYNA, Department of Human Development, Cornell University

PHILIP E. TETLOCK, Department of Psychology and Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania

SUJEETA BHATT, Study Director

JULIE ANNE SCHUCK, Program Officer

ELIZABETH TOWNSEND, Research Associate

HANNAH DURING, Senior Program Assistant

RENÉE L. WILSON GAINES, Senior Program Assistant

BOARD ON BEHAVIORAL, COGNITIVE, AND SENSORY SCIENCES

SUSAN T. FISKE (Chair), Department of Psychology and Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University

JOHN BAUGH, Department of Arts & Sciences, Washington University in St. Louis

LAURA L. CARSTENSEN, Department of Psychology, Stanford University

JENNIFER S. COLE, Department of Linguistics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

JUDY DUBNO, Department of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, Medical University of South Carolina

JENNIFER EBERHARDT, Department of Psychology, Stanford University

ROBERT L. GOLDSTONE, Department of Psychological and Brain Sciences, Indiana University

DANIEL R. ILGEN, Department of Psychology, Michigan State University

NINA G. JABLONSKI, Department of Anthropology, Pennsylvania State University

JAMES S. JACKSON, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan

NANCY G. KANWISHER, Department of Brain and Cognitive Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

JANICE KIECOLT-GLASER, Department of Psychology, The Ohio State University College of Medicine

BILL C. MAURER, School of Social Sciences, University of California, Irvine

JOHN MONAHAN, School of Law, University of Virginia

STEVEN E. PETERSEN, Department of Neurology and Neurological Surgery, Washington University Medical School

DANA M. SMALL, Department of Psychiatry, Yale Medical School

TIMOTHY J. STRAUMAN, Department of Psychology and Neuroscience, Duke University

ALLAN R. WAGNER, Department of Psychology, Yale University

JEREMY M. WOLFE, Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Departments of Ophthalmology and Radiology, Harvard Medical School

BARBARA A. WANCHISEN, Director

Preface

In the coming years, complex domestic and international environments and challenges to national security will continue. Intelligence analysts and the intelligence community will need access to the appropriate tools and developing knowledge about threats to national security in order to provide the best information to policy makers. Research and knowledge from the social and behavioral sciences (SBS) can help inform the work of intelligence analysis; however, in the past, bringing important findings from research to bear on the day-to-day work of intelligence analysis has been difficult.

With generous support from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine will undertake a 2-year survey of the social and behavioral sciences to understand how knowledge from science can be directed and applied to help the intelligence community fulfill its critical responsibilities. A robust discussion between the academic and intelligence communities is needed to accomplish this task.

To launch this discussion, a summit was held on October 4-5, 2016, in Washington, DC. The National Academies, through its Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences (BBCSS), assembled a steering committee to plan, identify presenters, and host the summit. The summit brought together academics, members of the intelligence community, and representatives from the government for a day and a half to explore a few of the new developments in SBS research and the relevance of such work to intelligence analysis.

On behalf of the committee, I give special thanks to David Honey, director of science and technology at ODNI, for his vision and determina-

tion to undertake this survey study and resolution to hold such a summit to kick off the study. We also thank Kent Myers, senior consultant at ODNI, for serving as a liaison between the National Academies staff and the intelligence community during the preparations for the summit.

The success of the summit was due in great part to the guidance and insight of the steering committee and the invited presenters, who took time out of their schedules to present their research programs and engage in conversations with other presenters and attendees. First, let me extend my thanks to other workshop steering committee members, who lent their own expertise to the summit preparations and discussions: Thomas Fingar, Stanford University; Steven Hyman, Harvard University; Valerie F. Reyna, Cornell University; and Philip E. Tetlock, University of Pennsylvania. We would also like to thank the following invited speakers for their presentations at the summit: David Broniatowski, George Washington University; Mathew Burrows, Atlantic Council; David Cesarini, New York University; Joshua Epstein, Johns Hopkins University; Susan Fiske, Princeton University; Charles R. Gaukel, National Intelligence Council; George Gerliczy, Central Intelligence Agency; Paul Glimcher, New York University; Read Montague, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University; Benjamin Neale, Harvard Medical School; Elizabeth Phelps, New York University; Paul Slovic, University of Oregon; Geoffrey Strayer, Defense Intelligence Agency; and Jeremy Wolfe, Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Harvard Medical School.

The summit would not have come together so quickly and with so much promise for the study to come without the support of the National Academies staff. We offer special thanks to Barbara Wanchisen, BBCSS director; Sujeeta Bhatt, study director; and other members of the project team: Julie Anne Schuck, Elizabeth Townsend, Hannah During, and Renée L. Wilson Gaines. In addition, Viola Horek and Doug Sprunger helped manage the fast turnaround on the communications around the summit. Yvonne Wise and Eugenia Grohman provided valuable help with the editing and production of these proceedings, and Kirsten Sampson Snyder managed the report review process.

This workshop proceedings has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the process.

I thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Bear F. Braumoeller, Department of Political Science, The Ohio State University,

and Claudio Cioffi-Revilla, Center for Social Complexity, George Mason University.

Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the content of the report, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Jonathan D. Moreno, Department of Medical Ethics and Health Policy, University of Pennsylvania Health System. Appointed by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the author and the institution.

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Contents

1 Introduction

2 Opening Remarks

3 Needs of the Intelligence Community

4 First Research Session: Brain and Neuroscience

5 Second Research Session: Social Interaction

6 Third Research Session: Behavioral Genetics

7 Fourth Research Session: Risk and Decision-Making

8 Summative Remarks

Appendixes

A Social and Behavioral Sciences for National Security: A Decadal Survey Statement of Task

B Summit Agenda and List of Participants

C Biographical Sketches of Summit Planning Committee and Presenters

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