Appendix C

Biographical Sketches of Summit Planning Committee and Presenters

David Broniatowski (Presenter) is an assistant professor in the School of Engineering and Applied Science at The George Washington University and the director of the Decision Making and Systems Architecture Laboratory. He conducts research in decision-making under risk, group decision-making, system architecture, and behavioral epidemiology. This research program draws upon a wide range of techniques including formal mathematical modeling, experimental design, automated text analysis and natural language processing, social and technical network analysis, and big data. Current projects include a text network analysis of transcripts from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s Circulatory Systems Advisory Panel meetings, a mathematical formalization of fuzzy trace theory, and a study using Twitter data to conduct surveillance of influenza infection and the resulting social response. He received his Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Mathew J. Burrows (Presenter) serves as the director of the Atlantic Council’s Strategic Foresight Initiative in the Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security. He was appointed counselor to the National Intelligence Council (NIC) in 2007 and director of the analysis and production staff in 2010. He was the principal drafter for the NIC publication Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds. In 2005, he set up and directed the NIC’s Long Range Analysis Unit, now known as the Strategic Futures Group. Burrows joined the Central Intelligence Agency in 1986, where he served as analyst for the Directorate of Intelligence (DI), covering Western Europe. From 1998 to 1999 he was the first holder of the intelligence community

fellowship and served at the Council on Foreign Relations. Other previous positions include assignments as special assistant to the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Richard Holbrooke and deputy national security advisor to U.S. Treasury Secretary Paul O’Neill. He is a member of the DI’s Senior Analyst Service. He received a Ph.D. in European history from Cambridge University.

David Cesarini (Presenter) is an associate professor in economics at New York University and a cofounder of the Social Science Genetic Association Consortium (SSGAC), which seeks to bring cutting-edge methods from medical genomics into social science genomics. Through the SSGAC, he has been involved in efforts to discover genetic associations with behavioral traits such as educational attainment, subjective well-being, and neuroticism. His work spans several areas, including health economics, labor economics, economics and psychology, and social science genetics. He received a Ph.D. in economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Joshua M. Epstein (Presenter) is professor of emergency medicine at Johns Hopkins University (JHU), director of JHU’s Center for Advanced Modeling, and codirector of its Systems Institute. He holds joint appointments in applied mathematics, civil engineering, economics, environmental health sciences, biostatistics, and international health and is an external professor at the Santa Fe Institute. A pioneer in agent-based modeling, Epstein has authored seminal books including Growing Artificial Societies: Social Science from the Bottom Up, with Robert Axtell; Generative Social Science: Studies in Agent-Based Computational Modeling; and Agent_Zero: Toward Neurocognitive Foundations for Generative Social Science. In 2008, he received an NIH Director’s Pioneer Award and in 2010, an honorary doctorate of science from Amherst College, his alma mater. He holds a Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and has taught at Princeton University and lectured worldwide.

Robert Fein (Presenter) is a national security psychologist who currently serves as a member of the National Academies’ Intelligence Community Studies Board. For the past 35 years, he has worked to understand and prevent targeted violence, such as assassinations, workplace violence, stalking, school violence, and terrorist attacks. For more than 20 years, he worked with the U.S. Secret Service, consulting on protective intelligence cases and codirecting two operational studies on targeted violence (on assassination and school attacks). From 2003 to 2010, he served on the Intelligence Science Board (ISB), where he directed the ISB’s Study on Educing Information. He has worked with intelligence, defense, and law enforcement organizations on the prevention of terrorist attacks and on counterintelligence. He

holds appointments at McLean Hospital/Harvard Medical School and the University of Massachusetts Medical School. He received a Ph.D. in clinical psychology and public practice from Harvard University.

Thomas Fingar (Committee Member) is a Shorenstein APARC Distinguished Fellow in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University. From May 2005 through December 2008, he served as the first deputy director of national intelligence for analysis and, concurrently, as chairman of the National Intelligence Council. He served previously as assistant secretary of the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research, principal deputy assistant secretary, deputy assistant secretary for analysis, director of the Office of Analysis for East Asia and the Pacific, and chief of the China Division. Between 1975 and 1986 he held a number of positions at Stanford University, including senior research associate in the Center for International Security and Arms Control. His most recent book is The New Great Game: China and South and Central Asia in the Era of Reform, for which he was editor and a contributor. He received an A.B. in government and history from Cornell University and an M.A. and a Ph.D. in political science from Stanford University.

Susan T. Fiske (Presenter) is the Eugene Higgins Professor in psychology and public affairs at Princeton University and currently chairs the National Academies Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences. She investigates social cognition, especially cognitive stereotypes and emotional prejudices, at cultural, interpersonal, and neuroscientific levels. Author of over 300 publications, she has been elected to the National Academy of Sciences. Sponsored by a Guggenheim, her 2011 Russell Sage Foundation book is Envy Up, Scorn Down: How Status Divides Us. Her most recent book is The HUMAN Brand: How We Respond to People, Products, and Companies (with Chris Malone). With Shelley Taylor, she wrote four editions of the graduate text Social Cognition, and as sole author, three editions of an advanced undergraduate text, Social Beings: Core Motives in Social Psychology. She currently edits for Annual Review of Psychology, PNAS, and Policy Insights from Behavioral and Brain Sciences. She is a member of the National Academy of Sciences. She received a B.A. in social relations and a Ph.D. in social psychology from Harvard University.

Charles R. Gaukel (Presenter) is the counselor and chief of analysis and production staff of the National Intelligence Council (NIC). Prior to joining the NIC, he directed the Mission Performance Center in the Directorate of Analysis of the Central Intelligence Agency. From 2010 to 2012, he served at the National Geospatial Intelligence Agency as vice chair of the National Geospatial Intelligence Committee. Since joining the CIA as an analyst on

European issues in 1986, he has served in a variety of analytic staff and leadership positions. He has led or served as an analyst on a variety of all-source analytic units on Balkan, Central European, and West European issues. He served as the first director of political and leadership analysis training at the CIA’s Sherman Kent School for Intelligence Analysis. He served as a reserve intelligence office with the U.S. Navy, retiring in 2009 as a commander. He has also served as an editor/briefer on the President’s daily brief staff. Among his awards, he received the Intelligence Commendation Award of the Director of National Intelligency (DCI), multiple CIA exceptional performance and meritorious unit awards, the DCI Balkan Service Award, and the Joint Service Commendation Medal. He holds a B.S. in education and an M.A. in political science from Kent State University, and completed graduate work in policy analysis and international relations at Virginia Tech and the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.

George A. Gerliczy (Presenter) is an analytic methodologist in the CIA’s Directorate of Analysis, a member of the Senior Analytic Service, and a member of the Senior Intelligence Service. He has experience drafting the full range of analytic products, including “current intelligence” pieces and longer-term assessments, as well as briefing senior agency officials and policy makers. He is currently a member of an analytic unit charged with providing strategic insights on all issues and geographic regions, with a focus on examining the most complex topics using rigorous and novel methods. He has spent years working with academic and other nongovernment experts to integrate findings from social and behavioral science into intelligence products and processes. He also served as a foreign service officer with the Department of State and, prior to his government service, as a senior associate at Standard & Poor’s. He received a B.A. in mathematics and political science and an M.S. in public policy analysis from the University of Rochester, and an M.A. in security studies, with a concentration in international security, from Georgetown University.

Paul W. Glimcher (Presenter) is the Julius Silver professor of neural science, economics, and psychology at New York University (NYU), director of NYU’s Institute for the Interdisciplinary Study of Decision Making, and director of the Glimcher Lab in NYU’s Center for Neural Science. He founded the Center for Neuroeconomics in 2004 and later founded the Society for Neuroeconomics, the first academic society dedicated to the field. His research aims to describe the neural events that underlie behavioral decisions using tools from economics, psychology, and neuroscience. He is a fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, the

McKnight Foundation, the Whitehall Foundation, the Ester A. & Joseph Klingenstein Fund, and the James S. McDonnell Foundation. He received the Margaret and Herman Sokol Faculty Award in the Sciences and NYU’s Distinguished Teaching Award. He received his B.A. in neuroscience from Princeton University and his Ph.D. in neuroscience from the University of Pennsylvania, the first degree in neuroscience awarded by the university.

David A. Honey (Presenter) serves as the director of science and technology and as the assistant deputy director of national intelligence for science and technology in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. He is responsible for the development of effective strategies, policies, and programs that lead to the successful integration of science and technology capabilities into operational systems. Prior to this assignment, he served as the deputy assistant secretary of defense, research, in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense. He was the director of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency Strategic Technology Office, director of the Advanced Technology Office, and deputy director and program manager of the Micro-systems Technology Office. He is a retired Air Force lieutenant colonel who began his military career as a pilot. He received a B.S. in photographic science from Rochester Institute of Technology, an M.S. in optical science from the University of Arizona, an M.S. in engineering physics from the Air Force Institute of Technology, and a Ph.D. in solid state science from Syracuse University.

Steven E. Hyman (Committee Member, National Academy of Medicine Member) is director of the Stanley Center for Psychiatric Research at the Broad Institute of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Harvard, a core member of the board, and Harvard University Distinguished Service professor of stem cell and regenerative biology. From 2001 to 2011, he served as provost of Harvard University, where he focused on the development of collaborative initiatives in the sciences and engineering spanning multiple disciplines and institutions. From 1996 to 2001, he served as director of the U.S. National Institute of Mental Health. He is the editor of Annual Review of Neuroscience, founding president of the International Neuroethics Society (2008-2014), and past president of the Society for Neuroscience (2015). He chairs the Forum on Neuroscience and Nervous System Disorders. He is a fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, American Association for the Advancement of Science, and American College of Neuropsychopharmacology, as well as a distinguished life fellow of the American Psychiatric Association. He received a B.A. from Yale College; a B.A. and an M.A. from the University of Cambridge, which he attended as a Mellon fellow; and M.D. from Harvard Medical School.

Sallie Keller (Committee Chair) is director for the Social and Decision Analytics Laboratory within the Virginia Bioinformatics Institute and professor of statistics at Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University. Her previous positions include academic vice president and provost at University of Waterloo, director of the IDA Science and Technology Policy Institute in Washington, DC, William and Stephanie Sick Dean of Engineering at Rice University, head of the Statistical Sciences group at Los Alamos National Laboratory, professor of statistics at Kansas State University, and statistics program director at the National Science Foundation. Her areas of expertise are social and decision informatics, statistical underpinnings of data science, uncertainty quantification, and data access and confidentiality. She is a national associate of the National Academy of Sciences, fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, elected member of the International Statistics Institute, and member of the JASON advisory group. She is also a fellow and past president of the American Statistical Association. She holds a Ph.D. in statistics from the Iowa State University of Science and Technology.

Marcia McNutt (Presenter) is a geophysicist and president of the National Academy of Sciences. From 2013 to 2016, she served as editor-in-chief of the Science family of journals. Prior to joining Science, she was director of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Before joining the USGS, McNutt served as president and chief executive officer of the Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute (MBARI), in Moss Landing, California. During her time at MBARI, the institution became a leader in developing biological and chemical sensors for remote ocean deployment. She began her academic career at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, where she was the E.A. Griswold professor of geophysics. She received a B.A. in physics from Colorado College and a Ph.D. in earth sciences at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography.

Read Montague (Presenter) is the founding director of the Human Neuroimaging Laboratory and the Computational Psychiatry Unit of the Virginia Tech Carilion Research Center at Virginia Tech, where he is also a professor of physics. He holds a Wellcome Trust Principal Research Fellowship at The Wellcome Trust Centre for Neuroimaging at University College London. In 2005-2006, he was a member of the Institute for Advanced Study in Princeton, New Jersey, and was a Kavli Fellow of the National Academy of Sciences in 2010. His work centers broadly on human social cognition, decision-making, and willful choice, with a goal of understanding the computational and neurobiological basis of these functions in health and disease. His group now employs novel approaches to functional neuroimaging, new biomarkers for mental disease, spectroscopy, real-time voltammetry, and computational simulations. He directs the Roanoke Brain Study, a proj-

ect aimed at understanding decision-making through the life span. His work has been published in Nature, Science, Neuron, and PNAS. He received his B.S. in mathematics from Auburn University and Ph.D. in biophysics from the University of Alabama at Birmingham School of Medicine.

Benjamin Neale (Presenter) is an assistant professor in the Analytic and Translational Genetics Unit at Massachusetts General Hospital, assistant professor in medicine at Harvard Medical School, and an associated researcher at the Broad Institute. With Mark Daly, he leads the ADHD Initiative, a collaborative effort that focuses on genomic studies of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). He has analyzed genetic data from large-scale studies of patients with ADHD, autism, age-related macular degeneration, type 2 diabetes, and metabolic disorders. He also analyzed data from the first ADHD genome-wide association study (GWAS) meta-analysis, which combined the results of four studies to boost statistical power. Neale contributed to the development of software tools such as PLINK and also led the design of the exome chip. He is the head of the ADHD psychiatric genetics GWAS analysis committee and an active member of the broader Psychiatric GWAS Consortium analysis committee, which is charged with analyzing all psychiatric data from these large-scale genome-wide association studies. He studied at the University of Chicago and Virginia Commonwealth University, earning a B.Sc. in genetics. He received his Ph.D. in human genetics from King’s College in London.

Elizabeth A. Phelps (Presenter) is the Julius Silver professor of psychology and neural science at New York University. Previously, she served on the faculty of Yale University until 1999. Her laboratory conducts research on how the human brain processes emotion, particularly as it relates to learning, memory, and decision-making. She is the recipient of the 21st Century Scientist Award from the James S. McDonnell Foundation and a fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science and the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. She has served on the boards of directors of the Association for Psychological Science, Society for Neuroethics, and Society for Neuroeconomics; was the president of the Society for Neuroeconomics and the Association for Psychological Science; and served as the editor of the journal Emotion. She is the current president of the Society for Social and Affective Neuroscience. She received her Ph.D. from Princeton University.

Valerie Reyna (Committee Member, National Academy of Medicine Member) is professor of human development, director of the Human Neuroscience Institute, codirector of the Cornell University Magnetic Resonance Imaging Facility, and codirector of the Center for Behavioral Economics

and Decision Research. Her research integrates brain and behavioral approaches to understand and improve judgment, decision-making, and memory across the life span. She is a developer of fuzzy trace theory, a model of the relation between mental representations and decision-making widely applied in law, medicine, and public health. She is a fellow of the Society of Experimental Psychologists, the American Association for the Advancement of Science, several divisions of the American Psychological Association, and the Association for Psychological Science. She has been a visiting professor at the Mayo Clinic, a permanent member of study sections of the National Institutes of Health, and a member of advisory panels for the National Science Foundation, MacArthur Foundation, and National Academy of Sciences. She received her B.A. in psychology from Clark University and Ph.D. in experimental psychology, with qualifications in linguistics and in statistics, from Rockefeller University.

Paul Slovic (Presenter) is a professor of psychology at the University of Oregon and a founder and president of Decision Research. He studies human judgment, decision making, and the psychology of risk. His most recent work examines psychic numbing and the failure to respond to mass human tragedies. With colleagues worldwide, he has developed methods to describe risk perceptions and measure their impacts on individuals and society. He publishes extensively and serves as a consultant to industry and government. He is a past president of the Society for Risk Analysis and, in 1991, received its Distinguished Contribution Award. In 1993, he received the Distinguished Scientific Contribution Award from the American Psychological Association. In 1995 he received the Outstanding Contribution to Science Award from the Oregon Academy of Science. He has received honorary doctorates from the Stockholm School of Economics (1996) and the University of East Anglia (2005). He is a member of the National Academy of Sciences and the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. He holds a B.A. from Stanford University and an M.A and a Ph.D. from the University of Michigan.

Philip Tetlock (Committee Member) is a Canadian-American political science writer and is currently the Annenberg University professor at the University of Pennsylvania, where he is cross-appointed at the Wharton School and the School of Arts and Sciences. He is co-principal investigator of The Good Judgment Project, a multiyear study of the feasibility of improving the accuracy of probability judgments of high-stakes, real-world events. He has received awards from the American Psychological Association, American Political Science Association, American Association for the Advancement of Science, International Society of Political Psychology, American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and National Academy of Sciences. He has

published approximately 200 articles in peer-refereed journals and edited or written 10 books. His research programs have explored a variety of topics, including the challenges of assessing “good judgment” in both laboratory and real-world settings and the criteria that social scientists use in judging judgment and drawing normative conclusions about bias and error. He received his B.A. and M.S. from the University of British Columbia and Ph.D. in psychology from Yale University.

Jeremy Wolfe (Presenter) is professor of ophthalmology and radiology at Harvard Medical School and head of the Visual Attention Lab at Brigham and Women’s Hospital. He has extensive expertise in vision, binocular perception, visual attention, and cognitive science. His research focuses on visual search and visual attention with a particular interest in socially important search tasks in areas such as medical image perception (e.g., cancer screening), security (e.g., baggage screening), and intelligence. His work has developed the “guided search” model through several iterations. In recent years, he has become increasingly interested in the role of vision and attention in medical and security errors. He is editor-in-chief of Cognitive Research: Principles and Implications. He is president of the Federation of Associations in Behavioral and Brain Science and past chair of the board of the Psychonomic Society. He received an A.B. in psychology from Princeton University and a Ph.D. in psychology from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

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