References

Andreadis, K. M., and D. P. Lettenmaier. 2006. Trends in 20th century drought over the continental United States. Geophysical Research Letters 33(10). DOI: 10.1029/2006GL025711.

Andres, H. J., and W. R. Peltier. 2016. Regional influences of natural external forcings on the transition from the medieval climate anomaly to the little ice age. Journal of Climate 29(16):5779-5800. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0599.1.

Bindoff, N. L., P. A. Stott, K. M. AchutaRao, M. R. Allen, N. Gillett, D. Gutzler, K. Hansingo, G. Hegerl, Y. Hu, S. Jain, I. I. Mokhov, J. Overland, J. Perlwitz, R. Sebbari, and X. Zhang. 2013. Detection and Attribution of Climate Change: from Global to Regional. In Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. T. F. Stocker, D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S. K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P. M. Midgley, eds. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press.

Boucher, O., D. Randall, P. Artaxo, C. Bretherton, G. Feingold, P. Forster, V.-M. Kerminen, Y. Kondo, H. Liao, U. Lohmann, P. Rasch, S. K. Satheesh, S. Sherwood, B. Stevens, and X. Y. Zhang. 2013. Clouds and Aerosols. In Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. T. F. Stocker, D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S. K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P. M. Midgley, eds. Cambridge, United Kingdom: Cambridge University Press.

Church, J. A., P. U. Clark, A. Cazenave, J. M. Gregory, S. Jevrejeva, A. Levermann, M. A. Merrifield, G. A. Milne, R. S. Nerem, P. D. Nunn, A. J. Payne, W. T. Pfeffer, D. Stammer, and A. S. Unnikrishnan. 2013. Sea Level Change. In Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. T. F. Stocker, D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S. K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P. M. Midgley, eds. Cambridge, United Kingdom: Cambridge University Press.

Clark, P. U., J. D. Shakun, S. A. Marcott, A. C. Mix, M. Eby, S. Kulp, A. Levermann, G. A. Milne, P. L. Pfister, B. D. Santer, D. P. Schrag, S. Solomon, T. F. Stocker, B. H. Strauss, A. J. Weaver, R. Winkelmann, D. Archer, E. Bard, A. Goldner, K. Lambeck, R. T. Pierrehumbert, and G. K. Plattner. 2016. Consequences of twenty-first-century policy for multi-millennial climate and sea-level change. Nature Climate Change 6(4):360-369. DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2923.

DeConto, R. M., and D. Pollard. 2016. Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise. Nature 531(7596):591-597. DOI: 10.1038/nature17145.

DelSole, T., X. S. Yang, and M. K. Tippett. 2013. Is unequal weighting significantly better than equal weighting for multi-model forecasting? Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 139(670):176-183. DOI: 10.1002/qj.1961.

Drijfhout, S., G. J. van Oldenborgh, and A. Cimatoribus. 2012. Is a Decline of AMOC Causing the Warming Hole above the North Atlantic in Observed and Modeled Warming Patterns? Journal of Climate 25(24):8373-8379. DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-12-00490.1.

Flato, G., J. Marotzke, B. Abiodun, P. Braconnot, S. C. Chou, W. Collins, P. Cox, F. Driouech, S. Emori, V. Eyring, C. Forest, P. Gleckler, E. Guilyardi, C. Jakob, V. Kattsov, C. Reason, and M. Rummukainen. 2013. Evaluation of Climate Models. In Climate Change 2013: The

Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. T. F. Stocker, D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S. K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P. M. Midgley, eds. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press.

Forster, P., V. Ramaswamy, P. Artaxo, T. Berntsen, R. Betts, D. W. Fahey, J. Haywood, J. Lean, D. C. Lowe, G. Myhre, J. Nganga, R. Prinn, G. Raga, M. Schultz, and R. Van Dorland. 2007. Changes in atmospheric constituents and in radiative forcing. Cambridge, United Kingdom: Cambridge University Press.

Funk, C., S. Shukla, A. Hoell, and B. Livneh. 2015. Assessing the Contributions of East African and West Pacific Warming to the 2014 Boreal Spring East African Drought. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 96(12):S77-S82. DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-15-00106.1.

Golledge, N. R., D. E. Kowalewski, T. R. Naish, R. H. Levy, C. J. Fogwill, and E. G. W. Gasson. 2015. The multi-millennial Antarctic commitment to future sea-level rise. Nature 526(7573):421-425. DOI: 10.1038/nature15706.

Hannart, A., A. Carrassi, M. Bocquet, M. Ghil, P. Naveau, M. Pulido, J. Ruiz, and P. Tandeo. 2016. DADA: data assimilation for the detection and attribution of weather and climate-related events. Climatic Change 136(2):155-174. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1595-3.

Hartmann, D. L., A. M. G. Klein Tank, M. Rusticucci, L. V. Alexander, S. Brönnimann, Y. Charabi, F. J. Dentener, E. J. Dlugokencky, D. R. Easterling, A. Kaplan, B. J. Soden, P. W. Thorne, M. Wild, and P. M. Zhai. 2013. Observations: Atmosphere and Surface. In Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. T. F. Stocker, D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S. K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P. M. Midgley, eds. Cambridge, United Kingdom: Cambridge University Press.

Hollesen, J., H. Matthiesen, A. B. Moller, and B. Elberling. 2015. Permafrost thawing in organic Arctic soils accelerated by ground heat production. Nature Climate Change 5(6):574-578. DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2590.

Hulme, M. 2014. Attributing weather extremes to ‘climate change’: A review. Progress in Physical Geography 38(4):499-511. DOI: 10.1177/0309133314538644.

Kirchmeier-Young, M. C., F. W. Zwiers, and N. P. Gillett. 2017. Attribution of extreme events in Arctic Sea ice extent. Journal of Climate 30(2):553-571. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0412.1.

Koenig, S. J., R. M. DeConto, and D. Pollard. 2014. Impact of reduced Arctic sea ice on Greenland ice sheet variability in a warmer than present climate. Geophysical Research Letters 41(11):3933-3942. DOI: 10.1002/2014gl059770.

Kopp, R. E., R. M. Horton, C. M. Little, J. X. Mitrovica, M. Oppenheimer, D. J. Rasmussen, B. H. Strauss, and C. Tebaldi. 2014. Probabilistic 21st and 22nd century sea-level projections at a global network of tide-gauge sites. Earth’s Future 2(8):383-406. DOI: 10.1002/2014ef000239.

Kopp, R. E., A. C. Kemp, K. Bittermann, B. P. Horton, J. P. Donnelly, W. R. Gehrels, C. C. Hay, J. X. Mitrovica, E. D. Morrow, and S. Rahmstorf. 2016. Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 113(11):E1434-E1441. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1517056113.

Kotamarthi, R., L. Mearns, K. Hayhoe, C. C., and W. D. 2016. Use of Climate Information for Decision-Making and Impact Research: State of Our Understanding. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Defense, Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program.

Lean, J. L., and D. H. Rind. 2008. How natural and anthropogenic influences alter global and regional surface temperatures: 1889 to 2006. Geophysical Research Letters 35(18). DOI: 10.1029/2008GL034864.

Lins, H. F., and J. R. Slack. 1999. Streamflow trends in the United States. Geophysical Research Letters 26(2):227-230.

Lins, H. F., and J. R. Slack. 2005. Seasonal and regional characteristics of U.S. streamflow trends in the United States from 1940-1999. Physical Geography 26:489-501.

Liu, W., S.-P. Xie, Z. Liu, and J. Zhu. 2017. Overlooked possibility of a collapsed Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in warming climate. Science Advances 3(1). DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.1601666.

Mao, Y., B. Nijssen, and D. P. Lettenmaier. 2015. Is climate change implicated in the 2013-2014 California drought? A hydrologic perspective. Geophysical Research Letters 42:2805-2013. DOI: 10.1002/2015GL063456.

Margulis, S. A., G. Cortés, M. Girotto, and M. Durand. 2016. A Landsat-era Sierra Nevada snow reanalysis (1985-2015). Journal of Hydrometeorology 17(4):1203-1221. DOI: 10.1175/JHM-D-15-0177.1.

Matthews, H. D., and K. Caldeira. 2008. Stabilizing climate requires near-zero emissions. Geophysical Research Letters 35(4). DOI: 10.1029/2007GL032388.

Matthews, H. D., and S. Solomon. 2013. Irreversible does not mean unavoidable. Science 340(6131):438-439. DOI: 10.1126/science.1236372.

Melillo, J. M., T. T. C. Richmond, and G. W. Yohe. 2014. Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment. Washington, DC: U.S. Global Change Research Program.

Mengel, M., and A. Levermann. 2014. Ice plug prevents irreversible discharge from East Antarctica. Nature Climate Change 4(6):451-455. DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2226.

Min, S.-K., X. Zhang, F. W. Zwiers, and G. C. Hegerl. 2011. Human contribution to more-intense precipitation extremes. Nature 470(7334):378-381. DOI: 10.1038/nature09763.

Mo, K. C., and D. P. Lettenmaier. 2015. Heat wave flash droughts in decline. Geophysical Research Letters 42(8):2823-2829. DOI: 10.1002/2015GL064018.

Mote, P. W., D. E. Rupp, S. Li, D. J. Sharp, F. Otto, P. F. Uhe, M. Xiao, D. P. Lettenmaier, H. Cullen, and M. R. Allen. 2016. Perspectives on the causes of exceptionally low 2015 snowpack in the western United States. Geophysical Research Letters 43(20):10,980-10,988. DOI: 10.1002/2016GL069965.

Mueller, N. D., E. E. Butler, K. A. McKinnon, A. Rhines, M. Tingley, N. M. Holbrook, and P. Huybers. 2016. Cooling of US Midwest summer temperature extremes from cropland intensification. Nature Climate Change 6(3):317-322. DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2825.

Myhre, G., D. Shindell, F.-M. Bréón, W. Collins, J. Fuglestvedt, J. Huang, D. Koch, J.-F. Lamarque, D. Lee, B. Mendoza, T. Nakajima, A. Robock, G. Stephens, T. Takemura, and H. Zhang. 2013. Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing. In Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. T. F. Stocker, D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S. K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P. M. Midgley, eds. Cambridge, United Kingdom: Cambridge University Press.

National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016a. Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.

National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine 2016b. Characterizing Risk in Climate Change Assessments: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.

National Research Council. 2010. Advancing the Science of Climate Change. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.

National Research Council. 2011. Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts over Decades to Millennia. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.

National Research Council. 2013. Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change: Anticipating Surprises. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.

National Research Council. 2015a. Climate Intervention: Carbon Dioxide Removal and Reliable Sequestration. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.

National Research Council. 2015b. Climate Intervention: Reflecting Sunlight to Cool Earth. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.

Newman, M., M. A. Alexander, T. R. Ault, K. M. Cobb, C. Deser, E. Di Lorenzo, N. J. Mantua, A. J. Miller, S. Minobe, H. Nakamura, N. Schneider, D. J. Vimont, A. S. Phillips, J. D. Scott, and C. A. Smith. 2016. The Pacific decadal oscillation, revisited. Journal of Climate 29(12):4399-4427. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0508.1.

Norris, J. R., R. J. Allen, A. T. Evan, M. D. Zelinka, C. W. O’Dell, and S. A. Klein. 2016. Evidence for climate change in the satellite cloud record. Nature 536(7614):72-75. DOI: 10.1038/nature18273.

Pena, M., and H. van den Dool. 2008. Consolidation of Multimodel Forecasts by Ridge Regression: Application to Pacific Sea Surface Temperature. Journal of Climate 21(24):6521-6538. DOI: 10.1175/2008jcli2226.1.

Peng, P., A. Kumar, H. van den Dool, and A. G. Barnston. 2002. An analysis of multimodel ensemble predictions for seasonal climate anomalies. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 107(D23):ACL 18-11-ACL 18-12. DOI: 10.1029/2002JD002712.

Pollard, D., R. M. DeConto, and R. B. Alley. 2015. Potential Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat driven by hydrofracturing and ice cliff failure. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 412:112-121. DOI: 10.1016/j.epsl.2014.12.035.

Raymo, M. E., and J. X. Mitrovica. 2012. Collapse of polar ice sheets during the stage 11 interglacial. Nature 483(7390):453-456. DOI: 10.1038/nature10891.

Rhein, M., S. R. Rintoul, S. Aoki, E. Campos, D. Chambers, R. A. Feely, S. Gulev, G. C. Johnson, S. A. Josey, A. Kostianoy, C. Mauritzen, D. Roemmich, L. D. Talley, and F. Wang. 2013. Observations: Ocean. In Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. T. F. Stocker, D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S. K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P. M. Midgley, eds. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press.

Ritz, C., T. L. Edwards, G. Durand, A. J. Payne, V. Peyaud, and R. C. A. Hindmarsh. 2015. Potential sea-level rise from Antarctic ice-sheet instability constrained by observations. Nature 528(7580):115-118. DOI: 10.1038/nature16147.

Robinson, A., R. Calov, and A. Ganopolski. 2012. Multistability and critical thresholds of the Greenland ice sheet. Nature Climate Change 2(6):429-432. DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1449.

Rovere, A., M. E. Raymo, J. X. Mitrovica, P. J. Hearty, M. J. O’Leary, and J. D. Inglis. 2014. The Mid-Pliocene sea-level conundrum: Glacial isostasy, eustasy and dynamic topography. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 387:27-33. DOI: 10.1016/j.epsl.2013.10.030.

Schurer, A. P., G. C. Hegerl, M. E. Mann, S. F. B. Tett, and S. J. Phipps. 2013. Separating Forced from Chaotic Climate Variability over the Past Millennium. Journal of Climate 26(18):6954-6973. DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-12-00826.1.

Sheffield, J., E. F. Wood, and M. L. Roderick. 2012. Little change in global drought over the past 60 years. Nature 491(7424):435-438. DOI: 10.1038/nature11575.

Solomon, S., G. K. Plattner, R. Knutti, and P. Friedlingstein. 2009. Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 106(6):1704-1709. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0812721106.

Stern, D. I., and R. K. Kaufmann. 2014. Anthropogenic and natural causes of climate change. Climatic Change 122(1-2):257-269. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-1007-x.

Stone, D., M. Auffhammer, M. Carey, G. Hansen, C. Huggel, W. Cramer, D. Lobell, U. Molau, A. Solow, L. Tibig, and G. Yohe. 2013. The challenge to detect and attribute effects of climate change on human and natural systems. Climatic Change 121(2):381-395. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0873-6.

Swain, D. L., M. Tsiang, M. Haugen, D. Singh, A. Charland, B. Rajaratnam, and N. S. Diffenbaugh. 2014. The extraordinary California drought of 2013/2014: Character, context, and the role of climate change. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 95(9):S3-S7.

Swain, S., and K. Hayhoe. 2015. CMIP5 projected changes in spring and summer drought and wet conditions over North America. Climate Dynamics 44(9):2737-2750. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2255-9.

Sweet, W. V., R. E. Kopp, C. P. Weaver, J. Obeysekera, R. M. Horton, E. R. Thieler, and C. Zervas. 2017. Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States. Silver Spring, MD: NOAA.

Vogel, R. M., C. Yaindl, and M. Walter. 2011. Nonstationarity: Flood Magnification and Recurrence Reduction Factors in the United States1. JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association 47(3):464-474. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2011.00541.x.

Wang, H., and S. Schubert. 2014. Causes of the extreme dry conditions over California during early 2013. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 95(9):S7-S11.

Westra, S., L. V. Alexander, and F. W. Zwiers. 2013. Global Increasing Trends in Annual Maximum Daily Precipitation. Journal of Climate 26(11):3904-3918. DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-12-00502.1.

Wolff, E. W., J. Chappellaz, T. Blunier, S. O. Rasmussen, and A. Svensson. 2010. Millennial-scale variability during the last glacial: The ice core record. Quaternary Science Reviews 29(21-22):2828-2838. DOI: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2009.10.013.

Yan, X.-H., T. Boyer, K. Trenberth, T. R. Karl, S.-P. Xie, V. Nieves, K.-K. Tung, and D. Roemmich. 2016. The global warming hiatus: Slowdown or redistribution? Earth’s Future 4(11):472-482. DOI: 10.1002/2016EF000417.

Zhang, X., H. Wan, F. W. Zwiers, G. C. Hegerl, and S.-K. Min. 2013. Attributing intensification of precipitation extremes to human influence. Geophysical Research Letters 40(19):5252-5257. DOI: 10.1002/grl.51010.

Zwiers, F. W., X. Zhang, and Y. Feng. 2011. Anthropogenic influence on long return period daily temperature extremes at regional scales. Journal of Climate 24(3):881-892. DOI: 10.1175/2010JCLI3908.1.

Zwiers, F. W., L. V. Alexander, G. C. Hegerl, T. R. Knutson, J. P. Kossin, P. Naveau, N. Nicholls, C. Schär, S. I. Seneviratne, and X. Zhang. 2013. Climate Extremes: Challenges in Estimating and Understanding Recent Changes in the Frequency and Intensity of Extreme Climate and Weather Events. In Climate Science for Serving Society: Research, Modeling and Prediction Priorities. G. R. Asrar and J. W. Hurrell, eds. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands.