Understanding
and Predicting
the Gulf of Mexico
Loop Current
Critical Gaps and Recommendations
Committee on Advancing Understanding of
Gulf of Mexico Loop Current Dynamics
Gulf Research Program
A Consensus Study Report of
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, DC
www.nap.edu
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS • 500 Fifth Street, NW • Washington, DC 20001
This activity was supported by the Gulf Research Program Fund. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project.
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-46220-4
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-46220-7
Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/24823
Additional copies of this publication are available for sale from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu.
Copyright 2018 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America
Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Understanding and Predicting the Gulf of Mexico Loop Current: Critical Gaps and Recommendations. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: https://doi.org/10.17226/24823.
The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, nongovernmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., is president.
The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president.
The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The National Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine.
Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.nationalacademies.org.
Consensus Study Reports published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine document the evidence-based consensus on the study’s statement of task by an authoring committee of experts. Reports typically include findings, conclusions, and recommendations based on information gathered by the committee and the committee’s deliberations. Each report has been subjected to a rigorous and independent peer-review process and it represents the position of the National Academies on the statement of task.
Proceedings published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine chronicle the presentations and discussions at a workshop, symposium, or other event convened by the National Academies. The statements and opinions contained in proceedings are those of the participants and are not endorsed by other participants, the planning committee, or the National Academies.
For information about other products and activities of the National Academies, please visit www.nationalacademies.org/about/whatwedo.
COMMITTEE ON ADVANCING UNDERSTANDING OF GULF OF MEXICO LOOP CURRENT DYNAMICS
PAUL G. GAFFNEY II (Chair), Monmouth University
SHUYI S. CHEN, University of Washington
STEVEN F. DiMARCO, Texas A&M University
SCOTT GLENN, Rutgers University
RUOYING HE, North Carolina State University
JOSEPH KUEHL, University of Delaware
ROBERT LEBEN, Colorado Center for Astrodynamics Research
PIERRE F. J. LERMUSIAUX, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
RUTH L. PERRY, Shell Exploration & Production Company
DANIEL L. RUDNICK, Scripps Institution of Oceanography
NEHA SHARMA, Horizon Marine, Inc.
D. RANDOLPH WATTS, University of Rhode Island
ROBERT H. WEISBERG, University of South Florida
DANA R. YOERGER, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
Study Staff
KELLY OSKVIG, Program Officer
TERI THOROWGOOD, Administrative Coordinator
GULF RESEARCH PROGRAM ADVISORY BOARD
JERRY M. MELILLO (Chair), Marine Biology Laboratory
PORFIRIO ÁLVAREZ-TORRES, Consortium of Marine Research Institutions of the Gulf of Mexico
KIM A. ANDERSON, Oregon State University
KENNETH E. ARNOLD, K. Arnold Consulting and Worley Parsons
ELLIOT L. ATLAS, University of Miami
PATRICK BARNES, BFA Environmental
J. FORD BRETT, Petroskills, Inc.
ANTONIO J. BUSALACCHI, JR., University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
ELIZABETH (TERRY) FONTHAM, Louisiana State University
KATHERINE H. FREEMAN, The Pennsylvania State University
PAUL G. GAFFNEY II, Monmouth University (Emeritus)
WILLIAM “MONTY” GRAHAM, University of Southern Mississippi
SARA J. GRAVES, University of Alabama
MYRON P. GUTMANN, University of Colorado
SUSAN HANSON, Clark University
ANTHONY H. KNAP, Texas A&M University
MICHAEL MACRANDER, Shell International B.V. (Retired)
WILLIAM S. MARRAS, The Ohio State University
JEAN MAY-BRETT, Louisiana Department of Education (Retired)
KATHRYN MORAN, Ocean Networks Canada
ALONZO L. POUGH, Robert Wood Johnson Foundation
LIESEL A. RITCHIE, University of Colorado
JONATHAN SAMET, University of Southern California
RICHARD SEARS, Stanford University
Reviewers
This Consensus Study Report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published report as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process.
We thank the following individuals for their review of this report:
PAT HOGAN, Naval Research Laboratory
ALEXIS LUGO-FERNÁNDEZ, Bureau of Ocean Energy Management
JAMES J. RILEY, University of Washington
NAN D. WALKER, Louisiana State University
CARL WUNSCH, Harvard University
Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations of this report nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this report was overseen by DAVID M. KARL, University of Hawaii. He was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with the standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Academies.
This page intentionally left blank.
Contents
Three Cases for Advancing the Understanding of the Loop Current System
Study Approach and Methodology
Current State of Observations and Observational Technology
Current State of Modeling and Predictive Capability
3 CRITICAL GAPS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Data Assimilation and Numerical Modeling
4 LOOP CURRENT CAMPAIGN SOLICITATION ADVICE
A Summary of Recommendations for Near-Term Action
A Description of the Loop Current
This page intentionally left blank.