Applying Risk Analysis, Value Engineering, and Other Innovative Solutions for Project Delivery (2017)

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79 This report includes the research results related to other innovative methods as follows: • Innovative Methods Literature Review • Bibliography • Summary and Conclusions Innovative Methods Literature Review The literature review process first developed a list of other industries that commonly employ Value Methodology, Risk Management, and CR activities for the improvement of their projects and processes. Next, the research team refined this list by identifying spe- cific industries that shared characteristics similar to the public transportation sector. This refined list underwent an in-depth analysis to investigate specific innovative methods and techniques. A number of criteria and factors were identified during the research; most of them relevant to project delivery or product development such as cost, performance, time, risk, reliability, flexibility, sustainability, or competitiveness. Ultimately, the research team developed the following list of outside-industry methodologies, tools, and techniques that have a potential to influence the value-improving practices applied to transportation infra- structure projects: • Identify industries for investigation Several key words, criteria, factors, or terminology related to project management and innovation technology were used to search academic and industry databases to collect lit- erature on innovative methods with respect to project delivery. The research team focused on what theory, methodology, and practice experiences are embedded in these approaches; how these methods can be implemented in specific industries; and how these methods can be applied to transportation project delivery to provide innovative value that enhances project performance at an acceptable cost. Initially, the search delivered about 850 papers from industries and sectors ranging from government agencies and academic institutions to private company settings. Also, the research revealed valuable practices from books and industry reports. • Investigate industry innovative methods, tools, and techniques The papers reviewed involved a wide range of industries or sectors including the following: – Automobile manufacturing industry – Transportation industry – Renewable energy industry – Smartphone industry – Product development industry C h a p t e r 5 Innovative Methods Research Results

80 applying risk analysis, Value engineering, and Other Innovative Solutions for project Delivery – Information systems industry – Project management, outsourcing service, technology management, and R&D industry – Innovation and engineering technology – Data governance, health information sector – IP and patent and technology valuation – Strategic management and innovation management – Civil aircraft industry – Architecture, engineering, and construction (AEC) industry – Biological industry and science – Electric utility and energy industry – Semiconductor industry – Healthcare industry – Smart grid – Public R&D sector – University technology transfer sector – Mining industry – Medium-sized organizations and business units – Multi-project environment – Oil and gas transportation services • Investigate applications and integration of innovative methods with VE, RM, and CR As shown below there were 31 innovative methodologies, tools, and methods investi- gated during this research and most of them were considered in the first evaluation of the research process for their plausible integration with VE, RA, CR, and Project Delivery (PD) processes. – Hierarchical decision model (HDM) – Bayesian Causal Maps – A decision-making framework using a mathematical programming method – A multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) – Questionnaires and hypotheses method – Analytical hierarchy process (AHP) – Technology management performance index (TMPI) – Integrated Project Delivery (IPD) – Meta-Engineering – Technology Roadmapping (TRM) – Asset life cycle management data governance framework – Qualitative research methodology – A Simple Numeric Model – A qualitative interview method cross-analyzed with a customer value determination – Total Interpretive Structural Model (TISM) – Monitoring technique – Choosing by Advantages (CBA) – Value Metrics – Project and Risk Management/Analysis – Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) – Quality Function Deployment (QFD) – System Dynamics – Patent analysis and citation analysis – Agent-based simulation – Gap analysis

Innovative Methods research results 81 – Bibliometric analysis – TRIZ – Structured brainstorming – Synergy Valuation Model – Delphi and Technology Portfolio Planning – Utility analysis model • Analyze applicability to transportation During the investigation process of the refined list of innovative methods, tools, and technolo- gies, the research team classified these innovation methods, tools, and techniques based on cer- tain criteria and factors that are commonly used in project delivery and product development processes. Also, the research team considered the innovation methods, tools, and techniques that can possibly be modified and applicable to the delivery of transportation infrastructure projects. Many criteria and factors were identified during the research, and most of them were considered in the investigation of innovation methods, tools, and techniques. The criteria and factors addressed in this research include the following: – Cost – Time – Performance/quality – Risk – Flexibility – Product reliability – Sustainability – Competitiveness – Human resources – Economic environment – Policy – Price – Laws and regulations – Social – Tax – Environment – Information – Data – Privacy – Social – Willingness of adoption – Utility • Recommendations of methods, tools, and techniques The culmination of this task was a research team recommendation of innovative methods, tools, and technologies from outside industries that were ranked (by the research team) as high priority and have strong potential to influence the value-improving practices applied to transportation infrastructure projects. The nine selected innovative methods, tools, and technologies that show merit are given in Table 8 including a brief explanation and recom- mendation on each one. Bibliography Table 9 contains a bibliography of the literature reviewed. The literature has been numbered for the convenience of readers.

82 applying risk analysis, Value engineering, and Other Innovative Solutions for project Delivery Methods, Tools, and Technologies Explanation Recommendation Hierarchical Decision Model (HDM) The HDM is a multi-criteria decision model that allows decision makers to make decisions based on select criteria and alternatives. HDM, being similar to AHP, may offer a slight advantage over this method and should, at the very least, offer similar results. There is a need for good decision- making techniques within transportation, and HDM offers an attractive option. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) AHP has been widely applied within a VE context on hundreds of transportation projects. One of the issues related to AHP is that it can generate a large number of pairwise comparisons, which increase in direct relation to the number of criteria and number of options. Today, there are a variety of software support options to perform AHP analysis. AHP should be further considered as a means to improve value in project delivery decisions. The analytic network process (ANP) is a variation of AHP and is also worth further consideration. Integrated Project Delivery (IPD) IPD is a project delivery method that incorporates all stakeholders during the life of the project. By including the various stakeholders throughout the entirety of the project, the owner and project benefit from the collaborative talents and viewpoints of all participants to provide an effective project in an efficient timeframe. IPD is worth evaluating further because the lessons learned may be applicable in some ways to project delivery for transportation projects. Customer Value Analysis This method focuses on the importance of understanding what customers’ value by increasing the understanding of customer value theories and concluding with a summary of strategic customer value creation. Project Management Maturity (PMM) PMM is a Level 5 in the proposed Project Management Maturity Model. Level 1 is known as the “initial” or “ad hoc” stage, referring to a state where no established project management practices exist and processes are considered disorganized. Levels 2, 3, and 4 are categorized as Repeatable, Defined, and Managed, respectively, indicating different levels of maturity. Level 5 is the “sustained” or “optimized” stage, specifying that the organization is fully mature and the organization applies feedback to continually improve the process. The research team considered the PM Maturity Model in assessing the capability of public transportation agencies in adapting new tools and techniques and how they might align VE/CR/RA techniques with DOTs based on their level of PM development. Adequately defining what customers value (i.e., the public and key stakeholders) is essential to delivering transportation projects that create positive outcomes. Further exploration of Customer Value Determination (CVD) is warranted. Table 8. Selected innovative methods, tools, and technologies.

Innovative Methods research results 83 Methods, Tools, and Technologies Explanation Recommendation Creative Risk Management Approach (CRMA) CRMA is a method used to prevent risks after creating a risk-generating mechanism that realizes risks intentionally. This tool seeks to integrate techniques, such as function analysis from VE, to think about potential risk situations and offers ways to enhance traditional RA. Risk Management/ Structured Brainstorming Risk Identification A structured brainstorming risk identification method was developed for use in R&D projects in order to lead the project teams in the identification process to identify more risks and increase the effectiveness of the Risk Management process. This method presents an interesting approach to augmenting RA with stronger risk identification techniques. This could be considered for improving project Risk Management on transportation projects. Function-Driven Risk Management (FDRM) This method integrates the VE technique of function analysis with risk response planning to enhance the number and quality of risk response strategies. FDRM has been used successfully in multiple transportation-related RA workshops. TRIZ The trials of biomimetics using the methods that nature already uses are conducted in various fields to find the solution for technology development. A variant of TRIZ, called biomimetic-TRIZ, is used to solve the problem by using only one contradiction matrix. TRIZ is considered to have a high degree of applicability for transportation project delivery. Value Metrics This methodology measures project value by correlating the performance of project scope and schedule to project costs. The objective of this methodology is to prescribe a systematic, structured approach to study and optimize a project’s scope, schedule, and cost. It can use either AHP, ANP, or HDM as the decision algorithm. It has been tested in Caltrans and recommended in other transportation projects delivery. Table 8. (Continued). Summary and Conclusions The research related to exploring other innovative methods indicates there are a number of opportunities to improve transportation project delivery in numerous ways, by either applying completely new techniques or integrating them with establish techniques such as VE, RA, and CR. These are summarized as follows: • There is a clear need for tools to help project delivery teams make complex decisions. Such decisions, phrased as questions, typically include the following: – Which alignment option should we select? – Which structure type should we select? – Which project delivery method should we use? – Which Design-Build or CMGC contractor should we select based on “best value”? – How do we evaluate design changes or VE alternatives to determine if they add value to the project, and not just cut costs?

84 applying risk analysis, Value engineering, and Other Innovative Solutions for project Delivery for R&D Organizations in the IT Sector 14. Decision/MCDM Evaluation Tool for Technological Project Selection in the Early Stage of Innovation: Experiences from the Development of the Application in a Technology Transfer Office David Güemes-Castorena, Gonzalo Iván, and Uscanga-Castillo 2014 Low 15. Decision/MCDM Assessing Emerging Automotive Technologies for the Future Aurobindh Kalathil Puthanpura, Rafaa Khalifa, and Leong Chan 2015 Low 16. Decision-making framework using a mathematical programming method Integrating Product Life Cycle Issues in Technology Selection Amir Sanayei and Leslie F. Monplaisir 2012 Low 17. Delphi & Technology Portfolio Planning Research Project Valuation and Commercialization Strategy Chih-Hung Hsieh 2015 Low 18. Design for Six Sigma Developing a Design for Six Sigma Framework for the Analysis of Product Development Processes Evelina Ericsson, Markus Buschle, Joakim Lillieskold, and Mathias Ekstedt 2015 Low 19. Function-Driven Risk Management Function-Driven Risk Management (SAVE International Annual Conference Proceedings) Robert Stewart and Greg Brink 2010 High 20. HDM Decision Model for Selecting a Sedan Car B. Saatchi, L. Pham, H. Pham, C. Pai, and Y. Tran 2013 High 21. HDM Selection of Smart Phone Plans Noshad Rahimi and Rachanida Koosawangsri 2013 High 22. HDM Technology Assessment for Energy Efficiency Programs in Pacific Northwest Ibrahim Iskin, Tugrul U. Daim 2014 High No. Method Title of Literature Authors Year Applicability 1. Agent-Based Model Investigating the Adoption of Electric Vehicles Using Agent-Based Model Yonghee Cho and Kevin V. Blomme 2015 Low 2. AHP/Base Model Forecasting of Demand for New Technology Using Data on Analogies: The Case of Long-Term Evolution Mobile Telecommunications in Taiwan Fang-Mei Tseng and Tzu-Chun Lin 2015 High 3. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) Differences in Adoption Factors of Photovoltaic Power Systems between Businesses and Families in Taiwan Chiung-Wen Hsu, Pao-Long Chang, and Ya-Chun Chou 2012 High 4. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) Adopting AHP Approach on Evaluation and Selection of Outsourcing Destination in East and Southeast Asia James K. C. Chen, Van Kien Pham, and Benjamin J. C. Yuan 2013 High 5. Asset life cycle management data governance framework Governance Structures for Engineering and Infrastructure Asset Management Waqar Haider and Abrar Haider 2013 Low 6. Bayesian Causal Maps Integrated with the systematic probability generation method Scenario-Based Assessment of Energy Storage Technologies for Wind Power Generation Using Bayesian Causal Maps Yulianto Suharto 2013 Low 7. Bibliometric Analysis Bibliometric Analysis of the Front-End of Innovation Glauco S. Mendes and Maicon G. Oliveira 2015 Low 8. Biomimetic-TRIZ Matrix Technology Development Tools in Biomimetics Utilizing TRIZ: Biomimetic-TRIZ Matrix Chaeguk Lim, Inchae Park, and Byungun Yoon 2015 High 9. Choosing by Advantages (CBA) Deciding a Sustainable Alternative by “Choosing By Advantages” in the AEC Industry Paz Arroyo, Iris D. Tommelein, and Glenn Ballard 2012 Low 10. Citation Analysis Study on the Academic Landscape of Hydropower: A Citation-Analysis Based Method and Its Application Zhidong Liu, Hajime Sasaki, and Ichiro Sakata 2014 Low 11. Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) Using DEA to Evaluate Operation Efficiency of Top 10 Global Solar Photovoltaic Companies Shih-Chi Chang, Chun-Yi Liu, and Lee-Yun Pan 2014 Low 12. Decision/MCDM Scoring Methods for Prioritizing and Selecting Innovation Projects Rick Mitchell, Robert Phaal, and Nicky Athanassopoulou 2014 Medium 13. Decision/MCDM A Multi-Criteria Project Assessment Framework Nermin Sokmen 2014 Low Table 9. Bibliography.

Innovative Methods research results 85 39. Qualitative interview- method and cross-analyzed with customer value determination Dynamic Antecedents of Customer Value: Entering to New B2B-Markets Aija Paananen 2012 High 40. Qualitative research methodology via Questionnaire Exploring the Success Factors of Electronic Health Record Orhun M. Kok, Nuri Başoglu, and Tugrul Daim 2011 Low 41. Quality Function Deployment (QFD) Application of Kano’s Two-Dimensional Quality Model and QFD on a Gender-Friendly Environment of Hospital Ying-Chyi Chou, Pei-Chi Tsai, Jar-Yuan Pai, Hsin-Yi Yen, and Ching-Hua Lu 2014 Medium No. Method Title of Literature Authors Year Applicability 23. HDM Innovation Measurement Framework to Determine Innovativeness of a Company: Case of Semiconductor Industry Kenny Phan, Dundar F. Kocaoglu 2014 High 24. HDM Development of a Hierarchical Decision Model (HDM) for Health Technology Assessment (HTA) to Design and Implement a New Patient Care Database for Low Back Pain Liliya Hogaboam, Brian Ragel, and Tugrul Daim 2014 High 25. HDM Identify the Best Alternatives to Help the Diffusion of Teleconsultation by Using the Hierarchical Decision Model (HDM) Hamad A. Alanazi, Tugrul U. Daim, and Dundar F. Kocaoglu 2015 High 26. Hypothesis Testing Managerial Decision Making Regarding the Allocation of Project Manager Resources to Projects: The Case of Botswana Lone Seboni, Apollo Tutesigensi, and Denise Bower 2013 Low 27. Integrated Project Delivery (IPD) Via Data Survey Integrated Project Development as Applied to Public Projects Neslihan Alp and Nicholas Franz-Joseph 2013 High 28. Management of Value Management of Value, Axelos Office of Government Commerce, UK 2010 Low 29. Meta-Engineering Innovation through Meta-Engineering H. Suzuki, Y. Okita, and Y. Komatsu 2013 Low 30. Monitoring technique Total Technological Competence and Capacity Building within Firms: South Africa’s Civil Aircraft Industry Daphney H. Mayindi and Michael O. Kachienga 2010 Low 31. Multi criteria decision aiding (MCDA) Group Decision Support Model for Prioritizing Information Systems based on a Multi Criteria Method Henriques de Gusmão, Cabral Seixas Costa, and Maisa Silva Mendonça 2013 Low 32. Patent Analysis Assessing Innovation Capability and Scientific Impact of Industry Through Patented Technologies Ching-Wen Kang and Hsin-Ning Su 2014 Low 33. Patent Analysis Identifying Target for Technology Mergers and Acquisitions Using Patent Information and Semantic Analysis Lu Huang, Kangrui Wang, Alan Porter, and Yi Zhang 2015 Low 34. Patent Analysis Measuring Technological Convergence in the Field of Smart Grids: A Semantic Patent Analysis Approach Using Textual Corpora of Technologies Frank Passing and Martin G. Moehrle 2015 Low 35. Project Management Case Study on Project Management at a Mineral Sand Organization Ntokozo Nhlengethwa and Elma van der Lingen 2014 High 36. Project Management Project Portfolio and Strategic Alignment through Technology Roadmapping for Medium Sized Organizations and Business Units Camilo A. Castro Gama and David Güemes- Castorena 2014 Low 37. Project Management Can We Manage Agile in Traditional Project Environments? Hans J. Thamhain 2014 Medium 38. Project Management Development and Verification of a Conceptual Framework for Project Manager-to-Project (PM2P) Allocations in Multi-Project Environments Lone Seboni and Apollo Tutesigensi 2014 Low Table 9. (Continued). (continued on next page)

86 applying risk analysis, Value engineering, and Other Innovative Solutions for project Delivery 51. Technology management performance index (TMPI) Approach for the Measurement of Technology Management Performance and Value G. Schuh, D. Guo, and M. Wellensiek 2013 Low 52. Technology Roadmap Study of Multi-Scenario Based Technology Roadmapping: Bayesian Causal Maps Approach Yulianto Suharto 2013 Low 53. Technology Roadmap Developing an Integrated Technology Roadmapping Process to Meet Regional Technology Planning Needs: The e-Bike Pilot Study Kelly R. Cowan, Tugrul U. Daim, and Steven T. Walsh 2014 Low 54. Technology Roadmap Industrial Technology Roadmap as a Decision Making Tool to Support Public R&D Planning Yonghee Cho, Seong-Pil Yoon, Karp-Soo Kim, and Boyoung Chang 2014 Low 55. Technology Roadmap Proposed Steps to Analyze Organizational Characteristics and Develop a Roadmap for Being an Innovative Organization Norawat Chutivongse and Nathasit Gerdsri 2015 Low 56. Total Interpretive Structural Model (TISM) Total Interpretive Structural Modelling of Strategic Technology Management in Automobile Industry Prakash Kumar Kedia and Sushil 2013 Low 57. Utility analysis Cooperation Models as Success Factor for Interdisciplinary, Inter-Organizational Research and Development in the Automotive Industry Eva M. Grochowski 2015 Low 58. Value Metrics Value Optimization for Project and Performance Management Robert B. Stewart 2010 High 59. Value Metrics Caltrans VA Team Leader and VA Study Report Guides Caltrans 2013 High No. Method Title of Literature Authors Year Applicability 42. Risk Verification of Risk Countermeasures Regarding Expressway Traffic Control System Based on Creative Risk Management Approach Manabu Sawaguchi and Itaru Nakahara 2014 High 43. Risk A Cost-Benefit Analysis of Investing in Safety and Risk Engineering: The Case of Oil & Gas Transportation Services by Pipelines Alexander Guzman and Behrooz Asgari 2014 Medium 44. Risk Successful Risk Management Approaches in Product Development Organizations: A Case Study Experience Evelina Ericsson, Liv Gingnell, and Joakim Lilliesköld 2014 Medium 45. Simple Numeric Model Simple Numeric Model to Compute Technology- Contribution Factor for the Technology Valuation Daemyeong Cho and Gyunghyun Choi 2011 Low 46. Strategic Decision Model Strategic Innovation Decisions and Innovation Capabilities: Decision and Action Models José Javier Aguilar Zambrano and Jorge Robledo Velásquez 2011 Low 47. Strategic Roadmap Integrating Roadmapping and Disagreement Management Methodologies for Coordinating Development of Competency-Driven Education Standards Vana Kamtsiou and Tomaz Klobucar 2013 Low 48. Structured Brainstorming Risk Identification A Structured Approach to Risk Identification for Projects in a Research Environment Eugene Swanepoel, Richard Weeks, and Louwrence Erasmus 2015 High 49. Synergy Valuation Model Synergy Valuation Model Hairong Karen Gui, Tom Gillpatrick, and William Bloom 2015 Low 50. System Dynamics Front End Project Planning for the Power Sector in Africa: A Conceptual System Dynamics Model N.O. Ogano, L. Pretorius 2014 Low Table 9. (Continued).

Innovative Methods research results 87 – What are the project’s design priorities and how do we quantify them? – How do we justify the value of deviating from design standards when applying the prin- ciples of Practical Design? The research team witnessed a number of evaluative techniques used to answer such ques- tions, many of which are structurally flawed, incorrectly applied, or inappropriate for the level of complexity involved. The research team evaluated AHP (as well as its cousin, ANP), HDM, and Value Metrics (which integrates AHP/ANP techniques with scalar methods to model “best value” decision problems). Such tools can be integrated with VE, or used as a separate technique to support project decision making. Ultimately, an AHP/ANP variant was selected similar to Value Metrics. • As evidenced in Chapter 6, there is a philosophical shift in many DOTs where there is an empha- sis in directly linking project delivery performance to project outcomes. In the past, this con- nection has frequently been implied but not made explicit. Several of the innovative methods reviewed, such as Integrated Project Delivery and Customer Value Analysis, provide meth- ods for better articulating project outcomes by improving communication between project stakeholders and project delivery teams. The technique of stakeholder/customer analysis was deemed helpful to project delivery teams and integrated into the team’s research to better align teams with stakeholders and desired outcomes. • The research team identified a number of techniques focused on enhancing the practice of tra- ditional Risk Management. These include the application of creativity techniques to improve the identification of project risks and the quantity and quality of risk response strategies. One of the major shortcomings in Risk Management is the focus on the analysis of risk at the expense of the analysis or effective risk response strategies. Typically, only one or two risk response strategies are identified for a given risk, and there is little technique applied beyond selecting the most obvious approaches. These techniques promise to aid project delivery teams to use greater rigor in conceptualizing potential risk while leveraging creative techniques to identify better Risk Management solutions.