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Suggested Citation:"CONCLUSIONS." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Strategies to Advance Automated and Connected Vehicles. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24873.
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Page 12
Page 13
Suggested Citation:"CONCLUSIONS." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Strategies to Advance Automated and Connected Vehicles. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24873.
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Page 13

Below is the uncorrected machine-read text of this chapter, intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text of each book. Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.

10 CONCLUSIONS Public policy making can be challenging within a dynamic and uncertain technological landscape. The private market is highly competitive, and objective information upon which policy can be based is largely unavailable from the developers of this transforma- tional technology. Many OEMs have made bold claims as to their timeframe for making Level 4 AV technolo- gy available in new models in the years leading up to 2021*. The timeframe for bringing Level 5 automation technology to market is hard to forecast; however, sev- eral studies estimate that Level 5 cars will be available on public roads in the late 2020s**. At the same time, the federal government has played a significant role in sup- porting the research, development, and piloting of CV technology. The USDOT Connected Vehicle Pilot Program has examined multiple modes of wireless communication and has continued demonstrations to position Dedicated Short- Range Communications (DSRC)-based CV technology for large-scale deployment. Significant research and standardization has gone into the development of CV technology, specifically related to DSRC. But some companies are developing V2X equipment that uses other forms of wireless communications, including cellular, Wi-Fi, and Bluetooth. In spite of uncertainties, the transformational nature of AV and CV technologies argues that public agencies should consider the strategies and possible outcomes to manage public interest concerns. *Korosec, K. 2015. Elon Musk Says Tesla Vehicles Will Drive Themselves in Two Years. Fortune. **Cellan-Jones, R. 2015. Toyota Promises Driverless Cars on Roads by 2020. BBC News; Volvo. 2016. Autopilot—Trav- el Calmer, Safer, Cleaner. http://www.volvocars.com/au/about/innovations/intellisafe/autopilot Andrea Izzotti/Shutterstock.com

11 In spite of uncertainties, the transformational nature of AV and CV technologies argues that public agencies should consider the strategies and possible outcomes to manage public interest concerns. The strategies provided through this research offer considerations for public agency decision makers using the best informa- tion available at the time. Technology direction may change, consumers may not adopt certain products, and any number of global economic or environmental drivers could alter the policy course. For state and local transportation agencies, the impacts of AV or CV technologies on their organizations may be highly disruptive and generate a range of uncer- tainties unique to public agencies: Institutional: Institutional impacts affect a transportation agency’s focus and organizational structure. This includes how an agency prioritizes its responsibil- ities and allocates its funding. Proliferation of AVs and CVs could increase trans- portation agencies’ focus on non-safety goals, increase responsibility for data integrity, security, privacy, and analytics, and increase reliance on private-sector relationships where agencies lack funding or expertise. Operational: These are impacts on how an agency develops, maintains, op- erates, and manages transportation infrastructure and transportation-related services. Proliferation of AV and CV technologies could cause existing intelligent transportation system investments to become outdated, reduce or shift de- mand for transit and parking services, and increase maintenance requirements. It is uncertain whether the technologies will mitigate or exacerbate current roadway capacity deficits. Funding and financing: These are impacts to the funding and financing sourc- es available for transportation infrastructure and related services. AV and CV systems could exacerbate funding deficits through increased costs for maintain- ing and operating roadways. AVs deployed with alternative fuel technologies, such as electricity, would reduce revenues from fuel-based taxes. A proliferation of shared AVs could reduce the amount of revenue from driver licensing, vehicle sales tax, vehicle registration, moving violations, transit fares, and federal fund- ing associated with ridership levels. Conversely, CV technology could potentially increase revenue from road-user charges by providing a technology platform that supports usage-based revenue measurement and reporting. Ultimately, public policy making for AVs and CVs will be informed through a cycle of learning and leveraging the activities of early-adopter agencies that support testing, evaluation, research, and continuous knowledge creation. Agencies can create a nimble policy-making framework that espouses these principles and sets in place a continual “look ahead” assessment.

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TRB's National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) has released Strategies to Advance Automated and Connected Vehicles: Briefing Document. It is intended for state, regional, and local agency and political decision makers who are framing public policy making for these transformational technologies. The briefing document makes the case for taking action in spite of uncertainties and presents 18 policy and planning strategies that may be useful in advancing societal goals.

The briefing document is based on NCHRP Research Report 845: Advancing Automated and Connected Vehicles: Policy and Planning Strategies for State and Local Transportation Agencies. The report assesses policy and planning strategies at the state, regional, and local levels that could influence private-sector automated vehicle (AV) and connected vehicle (CV) choices to positively affect societal goals. The report aims to assist agencies with exploring actions that might increase the likelihood that AV and CV technologies will have beneficial impacts on traffic crashes, congestion, pollution, land development, and mobility (particularly for older adults, youths under the age of 16, and individuals with disabilities).

TRB has partnered with the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) to develop a Transportation TV Special Report on Automated Vehicles in America, featuring the results of this briefing document.

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