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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Assessing and Responding to the Growth of Computer Science Undergraduate Enrollments. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24926.
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ASSESSING AND RESPONDING TO THE
Growth of Computer Science
Undergraduate Enrollments

Committee on the Growth of
Computer Science Undergraduate Enrollments

Board on Higher Education and Workforce
Policy and Global Affairs

Computer Science and Telecommunications Board
Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

A Consensus Study Report of

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, DC
www.nap.edu

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Assessing and Responding to the Growth of Computer Science Undergraduate Enrollments. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24926.
×

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001

This activity was supported by the National Science Foundation, Grant Number 1551227. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project.

International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-46702-5
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-46702-0
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Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Assessing and Responding to the Growth of Computer Science Undergraduate Enrollments. The National Academies Press, Washington, DC. https://doi.org/10.17226/24926.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Assessing and Responding to the Growth of Computer Science Undergraduate Enrollments. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24926.
×

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The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, nongovernmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president.

The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., is president.

The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president.

The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The National Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine.

Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.nationalacademies.org.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Assessing and Responding to the Growth of Computer Science Undergraduate Enrollments. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24926.
×

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Consensus Study Reports published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine document the evidence-based consensus on the study’s statement of task by an authoring committee of experts. Reports typically include findings, conclusions, and recommendations based on information gathered by the committee and the committee’s deliberations. Each report has been subjected to a rigorous and independent peer-review process and it represents the position of the National Academies on the statement of task.

Proceedings published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine chronicle the presentations and discussions at a workshop, symposium, or other event convened by the National Academies. The statements and opinions contained in proceedings are those of the participants and are not endorsed by other participants, the planning committee, or the National Academies.

For information about other products and activities of the National Academies, please visit www.nationalacademies.org/about/whatwedo.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Assessing and Responding to the Growth of Computer Science Undergraduate Enrollments. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24926.
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COMMITTEE ON THE GROWTH OF COMPUTER SCIENCE UNDERGRADUATE ENROLLMENTS

JARED COHON, NAE,1 Carnegie Mellon University, Co-Chair

SUSANNE HAMBRUSCH, Purdue University, Co-Chair

M. BRIAN BLAKE, Drexel University

TRACY CAMP, Colorado School of Mines

DAVID E. CULLER, NAE, University of California, Berkeley

SUSAN B. DAVIDSON, University of Pennsylvania

BRIAN K. FITZGERALD, Business-Higher Education Forum

ANN Q. GATES, University of Texas, El Paso

CHARLES ISBELL, Georgia Institute of Technology

CLAS A. JACOBSON, United Technologies Corporation

MICHAEL McPHERSON, Spencer Foundation

ERIC ROBERTS, Stanford University

VALERIE TAYLOR, Argonne National Laboratory

JODI TIMS, Baldwin Wallace University

SARAH E. TURNER, University of Virginia

Staff

EMILY GRUMBLING, Program Officer, Computer Science and Telecommunications Board (CSTB)

ADRIANA COUREMBIS, Financial Manager, Board on Higher Education and Workforce (BHEW)

JANEL DEAR, Administrative Assistant, CSTB

JON EISENBERG, Director, CSTB

KATIRIA ORTIZ, Research Associate, CSTB

TOM RUDIN, Director, BHEW

___________________

1 Member, National Academy of Engineering.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Assessing and Responding to the Growth of Computer Science Undergraduate Enrollments. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24926.
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BOARD ON HIGHER EDUCATION AND WORKFORCE

RICHARD K. MILLER, NAE,1 Olin College of Engineering, Chair

LAWRENCE D. BOBO, NAS,2 Harvard University

ANGELA BYARS-WINSTON, University of Wisconsin, Madison

JAIME CURTIS-FISK, The Dow Chemical Company

APRILLE ERICSSON, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

RICHARD FREEMAN, Harvard University

PAUL J. LEBLANC, Southern New Hampshire University

SALLY F. MASON, University of Iowa

FRANCISCO RODRIGUEZ, Los Angeles Community College District

SUBHASH SINGHAL, NAE, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

KUMBLE R. SUBBASWAMY, University of Massachusetts Amherst

SHELLEY WESTMAN, Protegrity

MARY WOOLLEY, NAM,3 Research!America

Staff

TOM RUDIN, Director

AUSTEN APPLEGATE, Senior Program Assistant

ASHLEY BEAR, Program Officer

LIDA BENINSON, Program Officer

FRAZIER BENYA, Program Officer

JAIME COLMAN, Senior Program Assistant

MARIA LUND DAHLBERG, Associate Program Officer

LEIGH MILES JACKSON, Senior Program Officer

IRENE NGUN, Research Associate

LAYNE SCHERER, Program Officer

___________________

1 Member, National Academy of Engineering.

2 Member, National Academy of Sciences.

3 Member, National Academy of Medicine.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Assessing and Responding to the Growth of Computer Science Undergraduate Enrollments. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24926.
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COMPUTER SCIENCE AND TELECOMMUNICATIONS BOARD

FARNAM JAHANIAN, Carnegie Mellon University, Chair

LUIZ ANDRÉ BARRASO, Google, Inc.

STEVEN M. BELLOVIN, NAE,1 Columbia University

ROBERT F. BRAMMER, Brammer Technology, LLC

DAVID CULLER, NAE, University of California, Berkeley

EDWARD FRANK, Cloud Parity, Inc.

LAURA HAAS, NAE, University of Massachusetts, Amherst

MARK HOROWITZ, NAE, Stanford University

ERIC HORVITZ, NAE, Microsoft Research

VIJAY KUMAR, NAE, University of Pennsylvania

BETH MYNATT, Georgia Institute of Technology

CRAIG PARTRIDGE, Raytheon BBN Technologies

DANIELA RUS, NAE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

FRED B. SCHNEIDER, NAE, Cornell University

MARGO SELTZER, Harvard University

JOHN STANKOVIC, University of Virginia

MOSHE VARDI, NAS2/NAE, Rice University

KATHERINE YELICK, NAE, University of California, Berkeley

Staff

JON EISENBERG, Director

LYNETTE I. MILLETT, Associate Director

VIRGINIA BACON TALATI, Program Officer

SHENAE BRADLEY, Administrative Assistant

JANEL DEAR, Senior Program Assistant

EMILY GRUMBLING, Program Officer

RENEE HAWKINS, Financial and Administrative Manager

KATIRIA ORTIZ, Research Associate

For more information on the CSTB, see its website at http://www.cstb.org, write to CSTB, National Research Council, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Washington, DC 20001, call (202) 334-2605, or e-mail the CSTB at cstb@nas.edu.

___________________

1 Member, National Academy of Engineering.

2 Member, National Academy of Sciences.

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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Assessing and Responding to the Growth of Computer Science Undergraduate Enrollments. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24926.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Assessing and Responding to the Growth of Computer Science Undergraduate Enrollments. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24926.
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Acknowledgment of Reviewers

This Consensus Study Report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published report as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process.

We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: W. Richards Adrion, University of Massachusetts, Amherst; Fiona Doyle, University of California, Berkeley; Michael Franklin, University of Chicago; Mary Hall, University of Utah; Jennifer Hunt, Rutgers University; Louise Kirkbride, Broad Daylight, Inc.; Edward Lazowska, University of Washington; Greg Morrisett, Cornell University; Linda Sax, University of California, Los Angeles; Chris Stephenson, Google, Inc.; and Telle Whitney, Anita Borg Institute for Women and Technology.

Although the reviewers listed here provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations of this report nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Susan Curry, University of Iowa, and Philip Neches, Teradata Corporation. They were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with the standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Academies.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Assessing and Responding to the Growth of Computer Science Undergraduate Enrollments. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24926.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Assessing and Responding to the Growth of Computer Science Undergraduate Enrollments. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24926.
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Preface

Computer science (CS) and information technologies have transformed all sectors of society, businesses, and government. Today, the transformation continues and much is driven by artificial intelligence, robotics, the Internet of Things, information security, and data science. A wide range of jobs in virtually all sectors demand computing skills to an unprecedented extent. And every academic discipline finds itself incorporating computing into its research and educational mission.

The centrality of computing has manifested itself in dramatic increases in enrollment in undergraduate computer science courses in colleges and universities. Institutions have to make decisions ranging from allocating resources to accommodate demand to imposing limits on course enrollments and course offerings, and managing increasing enrollment of non-majors. In addition, with industry hiring the majority of new Ph.D.s, growing the number of faculty is a challenge for many departments. Strains on educational institutions are significant; there is a growing sense of an impending crisis in many universities.

This committee was created at the request of the National Science Foundation to explore this enrollment crisis and to make recommendations to address it. The charge to the committee prompted the committee to address three sets of questions:

  1. Computer science enrollments are at an all-time high and non-majors are increasingly seeking to enroll in not only introductory but also more advanced CS courses. How can institutions best manage high enrollments? What are drivers of the increased interest in CS courses? What predictions can we make about future enrollments?
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Assessing and Responding to the Growth of Computer Science Undergraduate Enrollments. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24926.
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  1. The pressures and demands felt in computer science departments and their universities are real, severe, and current. What strategies and tactics can institutions adopt to respond in the short as well as the long term?
  2. Computer science is among the least diverse disciplines in terms of both gender and minority representation. Most institutions have adopted strategies to increase diversity, but what will the increase in enrollments mean for diversity? How can the surge of interest enhance or provide new opportunities for increasing diversity?

The committee, with input from several participants in a workshop convened for that purpose and the support of Academies staff, worked diligently to respond to these questions. We hope this report and our findings and recommendations will assist the academic community, the National Science Foundation, and others to formulate and implement effective actions for what is a pressing and important problem.

PLAN OF ATTACK

The committee, which comprised experts with a wide range of perspectives and experiences, tapped data sets and reports from many different sources. A public workshop was held in August 2016 to bring before the committee additional experts from government, industry, and academia.1 The committee sought to marshal evidence to determine the extent of the enrollment crisis, to form a view of future enrollment trends, and to understand the effects of enrollment growth on diversity. Not surprisingly, the data sets were not as complete or extensive as the committee would have liked. Nevertheless, the committee believes its conclusions and recommendations are well supported. The limitations of the evidence are identified and discussed in the relevant chapters.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

This report is the result of a group effort by the Committee on the Growth of Computer Science Undergraduate Enrollments. The committee recognizes that its analyses, deliberations, and results would not have been possible without the insights and contributions from a number of briefers and agents of the Academies. First, the committee thanks staff and members of the Computing Research Association, especially Betsy Bizot and Jane Stout for their assistance in interpreting the results of their recent CS enrollments surveys, and for stimulating discussion of this topic more broadly, and to Yan Timanovsky for assisting with data from the Association for Computing Machinery’s NDC survey (a survey of “Non-Doctoral-Granting Departments in Computing”). The committee also thanks all

___________________

1 See Appendix B for the workshop agenda and list of panelists.

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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Assessing and Responding to the Growth of Computer Science Undergraduate Enrollments. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24926.
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of the speakers at the August 2016 workshop for their insights—they stimulated important discussions among members of the committee, and provided helpful data and perspectives.

Special thanks go to Professor John Bound and Nicolas Morales from the University of Michigan for their thoughtful analysis on the computing labor market in the Academies-commissioned paper appended to this report. Professor Lynne Molter and Allan Moser with the Consortium for Undergraduate STEM Success also contributed a commissioned summary analysis of undergraduate participation in computing at the sample of institutions in the consortium. Professor Linda Sax and Dr. Ellen Stolzenberg each helpfully provided information from the Higher Education Research Institute’s Freshman survey about student intent to major in computer science. Last, Professor Jennifer Hunt of Rutgers University also provided a helpful assessment on the economics of enrollment in computing in the form of a white paper, which has also been appended to this report.

Jared Cohon and Susanne Hambrusch, Co-Chairs
Committee on the Growth of Computer Science
Undergraduate Enrollments

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Assessing and Responding to the Growth of Computer Science Undergraduate Enrollments. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24926.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Assessing and Responding to the Growth of Computer Science Undergraduate Enrollments. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24926.
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3.1 Average number of declared CS majors (freshman through seniors) per unit at U.S. Taulbee (computing Ph.D.-granting) institutions since 2006

3.2 Share of undergraduates participating in CS bachelor’s degree programs at the beginning and end of the undergraduate career

3.3 Non-major enrollment and major enrollment in computing courses in 2005, 2010, and 2015 at doctoral- and non-doctoral-granting units responding to the CRA Enrollment Survey

3.4 Average enrollment by CS majors in three representative computing courses at a subset of doctoral-granting units from 2005 to 2015

3.5 Average enrollment by CS majors in computing courses at a subset of non-doctoral-granting units from 2005 to 2015

3.6 Growth in the number of non-majors per course at responding doctoral institutions from 2005 to 2015

3.7 Non-major growth in computing courses at a subset of non-doctoral institutions from 2005 to 2015

3.8 Total B.S. enrollments in CS and CE degree programs for the CAHSI founding departments, 2011-2016

3.9 Aggregate enrollment in introductory, intermediate, and advanced computing courses by course level during the period 2009-2014 for eight historically black colleges and universities, five liberal arts colleges, and one large public university

3.10 Percent of non-majors (STEM and non-STEM) in three levels of courses at small samples of different institution types, taken from aggregate (by institution type, averaged between 2009 and 2014) data

3.11 Percentage of students responding to CRA Student Enrollments Survey in an introductory computing course who stated that the course was required for their degree program, by major

3.12 Change in the average number of CS majors, CS teaching faculty, and CS tenure-track faculty per department relative to 2006 levels, for institutions responding to the 2016 CRA Taulbee Survey

3.13 U.S. degree production for 2015 in several STEM fields, defined using the “detailed” CIPs from IPEDS (here, “Computer Science” corresponds to the entire 11 series of CIPs)

3.14 Employment distribution for 2016 CS Ph.D. graduates at Taulbee institutions

3.15 Ph.D. production in CS and related fields; for-profit Ph.D.s have been excluded

3.16 Actions taken to manage access to courses or major at doctoral-granting institutions

3.17 Actions taken to manage access to courses or major at non-doctoral-granting institutions

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Assessing and Responding to the Growth of Computer Science Undergraduate Enrollments. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24926.
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4.1 The number of computer workers (defined as “Computer Systems Analysts,” “Computer Scientists,” and “Computer Software Developers”) holding bachelor’s degrees (in any field) over time compared to the cumulative number of CIS bachelor’s degrees awarded over time (1994-2015), in millions

4.2 Share of computer workers who hold bachelor’s degrees (in any field) between 23 and 29 years of age, and share of all bachelor’s degrees awarded in CIS each year from 1994 to 2015

4.3 Share of workers in computer and mathematics and other occupations, for (A) all workers (age 18-64); (B) all college graduates; (C) young college graduates (age 22-26); and (D) young native (U.S.) college graduates

4.4 Relative median wages for bachelor’s degree holders (in any field) working in computer occupations (relative to those of all employed bachelor’s degree holders) for two age groups: 25-29 and 30-34

4.5 Median hourly wages of workers in computer/mathematics and other occupations for (A) all workers (age 18-64); (B) all college graduates; (C) young college graduates (age 22-26); and (D) young native college graduates

4.6 Projected employment growth for occupations in STEM and STEM-related fields (social sciences not included), 2014-2024

4.7 Percentage of 2015 job openings that value coding skills, by income level

4.8 Projected annual job openings and current degree production in broad STEM fields

5.1 Overview of diversity in the U.S. tech workforce

5.2 Percentage of reported CIS bachelor’s degrees conferred to women at for-profit, not-for-profit, and all institutions

5.3 Share of all reported U.S. CIS bachelor’s degrees conferred, by race/ethnicity for all institutions and not-for-profit institutions

5.4 Share of reported CIS bachelor’s degrees conferred to underrepresented minority groups at all and not-for-profit institutions

5.5 Number of CIS bachelor’s degrees reported from 1990 to 2015 for Hispanic or Latino, non-Hispanic black, American Indian or Alaska Native, and non-Hispanic white students, by “institutional control,” including for-profit status of institution

5.6 Number of CIS bachelor’s degrees reported (1990-2015) for female and underrepresented minority female students, by for-profit status of institution

5.7 Number of computing bachelor’s degrees awarded by CAHSI institutions: total and broken out for women, Hispanics, and underrepresented minorities, 2005-2016

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Assessing and Responding to the Growth of Computer Science Undergraduate Enrollments. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24926.
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5.8 Reported share of bachelor’s degrees in core CS, CE, and IS at not-for-profit institutions conferred to women between 2009 and 2015

5.9 Share of bachelor’s degrees in core CS, CE, and IS at not-for-profit institutions reported for black, non-Hispanic students between 2009 and 2015

5.10 Share of bachelor’s degrees in core CS, CE, and IS at not-for-profit institutions reported for American Indian or Alaska Native (non-Hispanic) students between 2009 and 2015

5.11 Share of bachelor’s degrees in core CS, CE, and IS at not-for-profit institutions reported for Hispanic or Latino students between 2009 and 2015

5.12 Share of female and male undergraduates at U.S. not-for-profit institutions participating in CS bachelor’s degree programs at the beginning and end of the undergraduate career

5.13 Percentage of students in underrepresented groups at U.S. not-for-profit institutions participating in CS bachelor’s degree programs at the beginning and end of the undergraduate career

5.14 Median percentage of female students in courses surveyed—doctoral and non-doctoral granting units

5.15 Median percentage of female students in courses surveyed in doctoral-granting units—public versus private

5.16 Number of underrepresented minority students in representative courses in doctoral-granting units

5.17 Median percentage of underrepresented minority students in courses surveyed (excluding MSI)—doctoral-granting and non-doctoral-granting units

5.18 Share of all U.S. CIS associate’s degrees conferred by race/ethnicity

5.19 Share of all U.S. CIS associate’s degrees conferred to women and to underrepresented minority groups

C.1 Relative median earnings in IT occupations, 1976-2006

C.2 Employment in computer science

C.3 Relative median annual wage by age group

C.4 Share of immigrants by occupation

C.5 Number of bachelor’s degrees by field

C.6 Degrees in computer science versus workers in computer science by graduation year

D.1 Degrees awarded by field. CS denotes computer and information science; EE denotes electrical engineering

D.2 Bachelor’s degrees awarded by field and citizenship. CS denotes computer and information science; green card denotes lawful permanent residents

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Assessing and Responding to the Growth of Computer Science Undergraduate Enrollments. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24926.
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The field of computer science (CS) is currently experiencing a surge in undergraduate degree production and course enrollments, which is straining program resources at many institutions and causing concern among faculty and administrators about how best to respond to the rapidly growing demand. There is also significant interest about what this growth will mean for the future of CS programs, the role of computer science in academic institutions, the field as a whole, and U.S. society more broadly.

Assessing and Responding to the Growth of Computer Science Undergraduate Enrollments seeks to provide a better understanding of the current trends in computing enrollments in the context of past trends. It examines drivers of the current enrollment surge, relationships between the surge and current and potential gains in diversity in the field, and the potential impacts of responses to the increased demand for computing in higher education, and it considers the likely effects of those responses on students, faculty, and institutions. This report provides recommendations for what institutions of higher education, government agencies, and the private sector can do to respond to the surge and plan for a strong and sustainable future for the field of CS in general, the health of the institutions of higher education, and the prosperity of the nation.

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