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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Assessing and Responding to the Growth of Computer Science Undergraduate Enrollments. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24926.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Assessing and Responding to the Growth of Computer Science Undergraduate Enrollments. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24926.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Assessing and Responding to the Growth of Computer Science Undergraduate Enrollments. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24926.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Assessing and Responding to the Growth of Computer Science Undergraduate Enrollments. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24926.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Assessing and Responding to the Growth of Computer Science Undergraduate Enrollments. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24926.
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Below is the uncorrected machine-read text of this chapter, intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text of each book. Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.

Asses A ssing and R Respondin ng to the Gro owth of Co ompu uter Sciencce Undergr radua ate En nrollment ts Commit on the Gr ttee rowth of Com mputer Scienc Undergradu Enrollme ce uate ents Board on High Education and Workfor her rce Policy and Global A y Affairs Comput Science an Telecommu ter nd munications Bo oard Division on Engine eering and Phy hysical Scienc ces A Consensus Study Rep of port PRE EPUBLICAT TION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURT Y THER EDITO ORIAL COR RRECTION

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 This activity was supported by the National Science Foundation, Grant Number XX. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-XXXXX-X International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-XXXXX-X Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/24926 Additional copies of this publication are available for sale from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2017 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Assessing and Responding to the Growth of Computer Science Undergraduate Enrollments. The National Academies Press, Washington, DC. https://doi.org/10.17226/24926. PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION

The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, nongovernmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., is president. The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president. The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The National Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine. Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.nationalacademies.org. PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION

Consensus Study Reports published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine document the evidence-based consensus on the study’s statement of task by an authoring committee of experts. Reports typically include findings, conclusions, and recommendations based on information gathered by the committee and the committee’s deliberations. Each report has been subjected to a rigorous and independent peer-review process and it represents the position of the National Academies on the statement of task. Proceedings published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine chronicle the presentations and discussions at a workshop, symposium, or other event convened by the National Academies. The statements and opinions contained in proceedings are those of the participants and are not endorsed by other participants, the planning committee, or the National Academies. For information about other products and activities of the National Academies, please visit www.nationalacademies.org/about/whatwedo. PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION

COMMITTEE ON THE GROWTH OF COMPUTER SCIENCE UNDERGRADUATE ENROLLMENTS JARED COHON, NAE,1 Carnegie Mellon University, Co-Chair SUSANNE HAMBRUSCH, Purdue University, Co-Chair M. BRIAN BLAKE, Drexel University TRACY CAMP, Colorado School of Mines DAVID E. CULLER, NAE, University of California, Berkeley SUSAN B. DAVIDSON, University of Pennsylvania BRIAN K. FITZGERALD, Business-Higher Education Forum ANN Q. GATES, University of Texas, El Paso CHARLES ISBELL, Georgia Institute of Technology CLAS A. JACOBSON, United Technologies Corporation MICHAEL MCPHERSON, Spencer Foundation ERIC ROBERTS, Stanford University VALERIE TAYLOR, Argonne National Laboratory JODI TIMS, Baldwin Wallace University SARAH E. TURNER, University of Virginia Staff EMILY GRUMBLING, Program Officer, Computer Science and Telecommunications Board (CSTB) ADRIANA COUREMBIS, Financial Manager, Board on Higher Education and Workforce (BHEW) JANEL DEAR Administrative Assistant, CSTB JON EISENBERG, Director, CSTB KATIRIA ORTIZ, Research Associate, CSTB TOM RUDIN, Director, BHEW 1 Member, National Academy of Engineering. PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION v

BOARD ON HIGHER EDUCATION AND WORKFORCE RICHARD K. MILLER, NAE,1 Olin College of Engineering, Chair LAWRENCE D. BOBO, NAS,2 Harvard University ANGELA BYARS-WINSTON, University of Wisconsin, Madison JAIME CURTIS-FISK, The Dow Chemical Company APRILLE ERICSSON, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center RICHARD FREEMAN, Harvard University PAUL J. LEBLANC, Southern New Hampshire University SALLY F. MASON, University of Iowa FRANCISCO RODRIGUEZ, Los Angeles Community College District SUBHASH SINGHAL, NAE, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory KUMBLE R. SUBBASWAMY, University of Massachusetts Amherst SHELLEY WESTMAN, Protegrity MARY WOOLLEY, NAM,3 Research! America Staff TOM RUDIN, Director AUSTEN APPLEGATE, Senior Program Assistant ASHLEY BEAR, Program Officer LIDA BENINSON, Program Officer FRAZIER BENYA, Program Officer JAIME COLMAN, Senior Program Assistant MARIA LUND DAHLBERG, Associate Program Officer LEIGH MILES JACKSON, Senior Program Officer IRENE NGUN, Research Associate LAYNE SCHERER, Program Officer 1 Member, National Academy of Engineering. 2 Member, National Academy of Sciences. 3 Member, National Academy of Medicine. PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION vi

COMPUTER SCIENCE AND TELECOMMUNICATIONS BOARD FARNAM JAHANIAN, Carnegie Mellon University, CSTB Chair ANDRÉ BARRASO, Google, Inc. STEVE M. BELLOVIN, NAE,1 Columbia University ROBERT F. BRAMMER, Brammer Technology, LLC DAVID CULLER, NAE, University of California, Berkeley EDWARD FRANK, Cloud Parity, Inc. LAURA HAAS, NAE, University of Massachusetts, Amherst MARK HOROWITZ, NAE, Stanford University ERIC HORVITZ, NAE, Microsoft VIJAY KUMAR, NAE, University of Pennsylvania BETH MYNATT, Georgia Tech CRAIG PARTRIDGE, Raytheon BBN Technologies DANIELA RUS, NAE, MIT FRED B. SCHNEIDER, NAE, Cornell University MARGO SELTZER, Harvard University JOHN STANKOVIC, University of Virginia MOSHE VARDI, NAS2/NAE, Rice KATHERINE YELICK, NAE, University of California, Berkeley Staff JON EISENBERG, Director LYNETTE I. MILLETT, Associate Director VIRGINIA BACON TALATI, Program Officer SHENAE BRADLEY, Administrative Assistant JANEL DEAR, Senior Program Assistant EMILY GRUMBLING, Program Officer RENEE HAWKINS, Financial and Administrative Manager KATIRIA ORTIZ, Research Associate For more information on the CSTB, see its website at http://www.cstb.org, write to CSTB, National Research Council, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Washington, DC 20001, call (202) 334-2605, or e-mail the CSTB at cstb@nas.edu. 1 Member, National Academy of Engineering. 2 Member, National Academy of Sciences. PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION vii

Acknowledgment of Reviewers This Consensus Study Report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published report as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: W. Richards Adrion, University of Massachusetts, Amherst; Fiona Doyle, University of California, Berkeley; Michael Franklin, University of Chicago; Mary Hall, University of Utah; Jennifer Hunt, Rutgers University; Louise Kirkbride, Broad Daylight, Inc.; Edward Lazowska, University of Washington; Greg Morrisett, Cornell University; Linda Sax, University of California, Los Angeles; Chris Stephenson, Google, Inc.; and Telle Whitney, Anita Borg Institute for Women and Technology. Although the reviewers listed here provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations of this report nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Susan Curry, University of Iowa and Philip Neches, Teradata Corporation. They were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with the standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Academies. PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION ix

Preface Computer science (CS) and information technologies have transformed all sectors of society, businesses, and government. Today, the transformation continues and much is driven by artificial intelligence, robotics, the Internet of Things, information security, and data science. A wide range of jobs in virtually all sectors demand computing skills to an unprecedented extent. And every academic discipline finds itself incorporating computing into its research and educational mission. The centrality of computing has manifested itself in dramatic increases in enrollment in undergraduate computer science courses in colleges and universities. Institutions have to make decisions ranging from allocating resources to accommodate demand to imposing limits on course enrollments and course offerings, and managing increasing enrollment of non-majors. In addition, with industry hiring the majority of new Ph.D.s, growing the number of faculty is a challenge for many departments. Strains on educational institutions are significant; there is a growing sense of an impending crisis in many universities. This committee was created at the request of the National Science Foundation to explore this enrollment crisis and to make recommendations to address it. The charge to the committee prompted the committee to address three sets of questions: 1. Computer science enrollments are at an all-time high and non-majors are increasingly seeking to enroll in not only introductory but also more advanced CS courses. How can institutions best manage high enrollments? What are drivers of the increased interest in CS courses? What predictions can we make about future enrollments? 2. The pressures and demands felt in computer science departments and their universities are real, severe, and current. What strategies and tactics can institutions adopt to respond in the short as well as the long term? 3. Computer science is among the least diverse disciplines in terms of both gender and minority representation. Most institutions have adopted strategies to increase diversity, but what will the increase in enrollments mean for diversity? How can the surge of interest enhance or provide new opportunities for increasing diversity? The committee, with input from several participants in a workshop convened for that purpose and the support of Academies staff, worked diligently to respond to these questions. We hope this report and our findings and recommendations will assist the academic community, the NSF and others to formulate and implement effective actions for what is a pressing and important problem. PLAN OF ATTACK The committee, which comprised experts with a wide range of perspectives and experiences, tapped data sets and reports from many different sources. A public workshop was held in August 2016 to bring before the committee additional experts from government, industry, and academia.1 The committee sought to marshal evidence to determine the extent of the enrollment crisis, to form a view of future enrollment trends and to understand the effects of enrollment growth on diversity. Not surprisingly, the 1 See Appendix B for the workshop agenda and list of panelists. PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION xi

data sets were not as complete or extensive as the committee would have liked. Nevertheless, the committee believes its conclusions and recommendations are well supported. The limitations of the evidence are identified and discussed in the relevant chapters. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This report is the result of a group effort by the Committee on the Growth of Computer Science Undergraduate Enrollments. The committee recognizes that its analyses, deliberations, and results would not have been possible without the insights and contributions from a number of briefers and agents of the Academies. First, the committee thanks staff and members of the Computing Research Association, especially Betsy Bizot and Jane Stout for their assistance in interpreting the results of their recent CS enrollments surveys, and for stimulating discussion of this topic more broadly, and to Yan Timanovsky for assisting with data from the Association for Computing Machinery’s NDC survey (a survey of “Non- Doctoral-Granting Departments in Computing”). The committee also thanks all of the speakers at the August 2016 workshop for their insights—they stimulated important discussions among members of the committee, and provided helpful data and perspectives. Special thanks go to Professor John Bound and Nicolas Morales from the University of Michigan for their thoughtful analysis on the computing labor market in the Academies-commissioned paper appended to this report. Professor Lynne Molter and Allan Moser with the Consortium for Undergraduate STEM Success also contributed a commissioned summary analysis of undergraduate participation in computing at the sample of institutions in the consortium. Professor Linda Sax and Dr. Ellen Stolzenberg each helpfully provided information from the Higher Education Research Institute’s Freshman survey about student intent to major in computer science. Last, Professor Jennifer Hunt of Rutgers University also provided a helpful assessment on the economics of enrollment in computing in the form of a white paper, which has also been appended to this report. Jared Cohon and Susanne Hambrusch, Co-Chairs Committee on the Growth of Computer Science Undergraduate Enrollments PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION xii

Contents SUMMARY 1 1 INTRODUCTION 9 Background and Context, 9 Context on the Computing Disciplines, 10 Data Used in the Development of This Report, 12 Organization of this Report, 16 2 HISTORICAL DEGREE PRODUCTION IN COMPUTING 18 Historical production of CIS and CE Bachelor’s Degrees, 18 CIS Bachelor’s Degrees going to Foreign Students, 20 Variation in CIS Bachelor’s Degree production by Institution Type, 20 Other Levels of Degree, 25 3 THE CURRENT LANDSCAPE OF COMPUTER SCIENCE ENROLLMENTS 29 Introduction, 29 Bachelor’s Degree Enrollment in Computer Science, 30 Hybrid Models of Computer Science Majors, 32 Non-Majors, 33 Course Enrollment, 33 Challenges with Faculty Hiring, 43 Actions Taken or Considered in the Face of Current Enrollment Growth, 49 4 DRIVERS OF THE RECENT INCREASE IN ENROLLMENTS IN COMPUTING 51 The Labor Market, 51 The Changing Landscape of Computing, 65 5 IMPACTS OF ENROLLMENT GROWTH ON DIVERSITY IN COMPUTING 70 Historical Diversity of Undergraduate CIS Degree Recipients, 71 Recent Degree Production for Women and Underrepresented Minorities in Core CS, CE, and IS, 77 Diversity of Computer Science Enrollments, 80 Diversity Impacts Associated with Enrollment Growth, 87 Active Efforts to Increase Diversity in Computing, 93 Leveraging Booming Enrollments to Increase Diversity in Computer Science and Related Fields, 94 6 INSTITUTIONAL STRATEGIES 95 Institutional Resources and Constraints, 95 Institutional Mission and Character, 98 A Template for Assessing the Current Computer Science Enrollment Challenge, 108 7 RECOMMENDATIONS 112 PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION xiii

APPENDIXES A Statement of Task 121 B Workshop Agenda 122 C Commissioned Paper: Workforce Trends in Computer Science 124 D White Paper: Does the Recent Increase in Computer Science Degrees Reflect Increased Demand? 135 E Summary of Data from the Consortium for Undergraduate Stem Success 144 F List of WebCASPAR / IPEDS Database Query Parameters Used to Obtain Data in Report Plots 147 G Biographical Information 163 H Acronyms and Abbreviations 168 PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION xiv

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The field of computer science (CS) is currently experiencing a surge in undergraduate degree production and course enrollments, which is straining program resources at many institutions and causing concern among faculty and administrators about how best to respond to the rapidly growing demand. There is also significant interest about what this growth will mean for the future of CS programs, the role of computer science in academic institutions, the field as a whole, and U.S. society more broadly.

Assessing and Responding to the Growth of Computer Science Undergraduate Enrollments seeks to provide a better understanding of the current trends in computing enrollments in the context of past trends. It examines drivers of the current enrollment surge, relationships between the surge and current and potential gains in diversity in the field, and the potential impacts of responses to the increased demand for computing in higher education, and it considers the likely effects of those responses on students, faculty, and institutions. This report provides recommendations for what institutions of higher education, government agencies, and the private sector can do to respond to the surge and plan for a strong and sustainable future for the field of CS in general, the health of the institutions of higher education, and the prosperity of the nation.

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