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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. In-Time Aviation Safety Management: Challenges and Research for an Evolving Aviation System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24962.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. In-Time Aviation Safety Management: Challenges and Research for an Evolving Aviation System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24962.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. In-Time Aviation Safety Management: Challenges and Research for an Evolving Aviation System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24962.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. In-Time Aviation Safety Management: Challenges and Research for an Evolving Aviation System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24962.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. In-Time Aviation Safety Management: Challenges and Research for an Evolving Aviation System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24962.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. In-Time Aviation Safety Management: Challenges and Research for an Evolving Aviation System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24962.
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Page xiii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. In-Time Aviation Safety Management: Challenges and Research for an Evolving Aviation System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24962.
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Below is the uncorrected machine-read text of this chapter, intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text of each book. Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.

PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION  IN-TIME AVIATION SAFETY MANAGEMENT Challenges and Research for an Evolving Aviation System Aviation Safety Assurance Committee Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences A Consensus Study Report of PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 This study is based on work supported by Contract NNH11CD57B with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any agency or organization that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: XXX-X-XXX-XXXXX-X International Standard Book Number-10: X-XXX-XXXXX-X Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/24962 Cover design by Tim Warchocki. Copies of this publication are available free of charge from Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Keck Center of the National Academies 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 Additional copies of this publication are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2018 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. In-time Aviation Safety Management: Challenges and Research for an Evolving Aviation System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/24962. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION

The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, nongovernmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., is president. The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president. The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The National Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine. Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.nationalacademies.org. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION

Consensus Study Reports published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine document the evidence-based consensus on the study’s statement of task by an authoring committee of experts. Reports typically include findings, conclusions, and recommendations based on information gathered by the committee and the committee’s deliberations. Each report has been subjected to a rigorous and independent peer-review process and it represents the position of the National Academies on the statement of task. Proceedings published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine chronicle the presentations and discussions at a workshop, symposium, or other event convened by the National Academies. The statements and opinions contained in proceedings are those of the participants and are not endorsed by other participants, the planning committee, or the National Academies. For information about other products and activities of the National Academies, please visit www.nationalacademies.org/about/whatwedo. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION iv

AVIATION SAFETY ASSURANCE COMMITTEE KENNETH J. HYLANDER, Flight Safety Foundation, Chair BRIAN M. ARGROW, University of Colorado, Boulder MEYER J. BENZAKEIN, NAE,1 Ohio State University GAUTAM BISWAS, Vanderbilt University JOHN W. BORGHESE, Rockwell Collins STEVEN J. BROWN, National Business Aviation Association DANIEL K. ELWELL,2 Federal Aviation Administration ANTHONY F. FAZIO, Fazio Group International MICHAEL GARCIA, Aireon, LLC R. JOHN HANSMAN, JR., NAE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology GERARDO D.M. HUETO, International Air Transport Association LAUREN J. KESSLER, Charles Stark Draper Laboratory JOHN C. KNIGHT,3 University of Virginia MICHAEL J. MCCORMICK, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University BONNIE SCHWARTZ, Air Force Research Laboratory CRAIG WANKE, The MITRE Corporation Staff ALAN C. ANGLEMAN, Senior Program Officer, Study Director MICHAEL H. MOLONEY, Director, Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board and Space Studies Board ANESIA WILKS, Senior Program Assistant 1 Member, National Academy of Engineering. 2 Resigned on April 18, 2017. 3 Passed away on February 23, 2017. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION v

AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ENGINEERING BOARD ALAN H. EPSTEIN, NAE,1 Pratt & Whitney, Chair ELIZABETH R. CANTWELL, Arizona State University, Vice Chair ARNOLD D. ALDRICH, Aerospace Consultant BRIAN M. ARGROW, University of Colorado, Boulder STEVEN J. BATTEL, NAE, Battel Engineering MEYER J. BENZAKEIN, NAE, Ohio State University BRIAN J. CANTWELL, NAE, Stanford University EILEEN M. COLLINS, Space Presentations, LLC MICHAEL P. DELANEY, Boeing Commercial Airplanes KAREN FEIGH, Georgia Institute of Technology NICHOLAS D. LAPPOS, Sikorsky, a Lockheed Martin Company MARK J. LEWIS, IDA Science and Technology Policy Institute VALERIE MANNING, Airbus RICHARD McKINNEY, Consultant PARVIZ MOIN, NAS2/NAE, Stanford University JOHN M. OLSON, Polaris Industries ROBIE I. SAMANTA ROY, Lockheed Martin Corporation AGAM N. SINHA, ANS Aviation International, LLC ALAN M. TITLE, NAS/NAE, Lockheed Martin Advanced Technology Center DAVID M. VAN WIE, NAE, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory IAN A. WAITZ, NAE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology SHERRIE L. ZACHARIUS, Aerospace Corporation Staff MICHAEL H. MOLONEY, Director CARMELA J. CHAMBERLAIN, Administrative Coordinator TANJA PILZAK, Manager, Program Operations CELESTE A. NAYLOR, Information Management Associate MEG A. KNEMEYER, Financial Officer SU LIU, Financial Assistant 1 Member, National Academy of Engineering. 2 Member, National Academy of Sciences. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION vi

Preface Commercial aviation in the United States and most other regions of the world is the safest mode of transportation. This high-level safety is the result of many factors, including decades of investments by industry and government and the dedication of researchers, engineers, pilots, air traffic controllers, and a great many other members of the aviation community. The U.S. national airspace system (NAS) is constantly evolving to take advantage of new technologies, to accommodate growth in the volume of air traffic, to integrate new types of aircraft, to increase efficiency, and to maintain or increase safety. NASA’s Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) conducts research related to several of these topics, including aviation safety. For example, ARMD is conducting research to support development of a real-time safety assurance system for the NAS. Such a system would operate in real time or near real time to monitor the state of the NAS, identify unsafe risks as they arise, and then assist in mitigating those risks. Research by many organizations other than NASA is relevant to the development of a real-time safety assurance system. Accordingly, ARMD requested that the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine convene a committee to develop a national research agenda that would (1) identify key challenges to the development of a real-time safety assurance system for the NAS and (2) identify high-priority research projects that would overcome those challenges. The Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board of the National Academies Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences has assembled a committee to carry out the assigned statement of task (see Appendix A). The committee members (see Appendix B) met four times during 2017, three times at the Academies’ facilities in Washington, D.C., and once at the National Academies’ facility in Woods Hole, Massachusetts. As specified in the statement of task, the committee has developed a research agenda consisting of a set of high-priority research projects organized around four key elements of a real-time aviation safety assurance system: concept of operations and risk prioritization, system monitoring, system analytics, and mitigation and implementation. The report’s principal finding summarizes the key challenges, and the principal recommendation summarizes the high-priority research projects (see Chapter 6). Kenneth Hylander, Chair Aviation Safety Assurance Committee PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION vii

Acknowledgment of Reviewers This Consensus Study Report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published report as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Ella M. Atkins, University of Michigan, R. Stephen Berry, NAS,1 University of Chicago, Raj M. Bharadwaj, Honeywell Aerospace Advanced Technologies, Stephen J. Lloyd, SJL and Associates, Inc., James T. Luxhøj, Rutgers University, Brad Shelton, Delta Air Lines, Agam N. Sinha, ANS Aviation International, LLC, Alexander J. Smits, NAE,2 Princeton University, and John Valasek, Texas A&M University. Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations of this report nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Chris T. Hendrickson, NAS, Carnegie Mellon University. He was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with the standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Academies. 1 Member, National Academy of Sciences. 2 Member, National Academy of Engineering. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION ix

In Memoriam This report is dedicated to Dr. John C. Knight, an accomplished researcher and educator in the field of safety‐critical computer systems, especially in the automotive and aerospace fields. He embraced the opportunity to serve on the Aviation Safety Assurance Committee despite a long‐term battle with hypersensitivity pneumonitis, and we have missed his camaraderie and counsel in the completion of this work. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION xi

Contents SUMMARY 1 1 INTRODUCTION 10 A Real-Time Aviation Safety Assurance System, 11 In-time Aviation Safety Management System (IASMS), 12 Safety Data, 15 Prioritization Process, 17 2 IASMS CONCEPT OF OPERATIONS AND RISK PRIORITIZATION 19 Challenges, 20 IASMS Concept of Operations, 20 Identifying and Prioritizing Risks, 22 National Airspace System Evolution, 25 Research Projects, 30 IASMS Concept of Operations and National Airspace System Evolution, 30 Identifying and Prioritizing Risks, 31 3 SYSTEM MONITORING 32 Challenges, 33 Data Completeness and Quality, 33 Data Fusion, 35 Collecting Data on the Performance of Operators, 36 Research Projects, 37 Data Fusion, Completeness, and Quality, 37 Protecting Personally Identifiable Information, 38 4 SYSTEM ANALYTICS 40 Challenges, 41 In-time Algorithms, 41 Emergent Risks, 42 Computational Architectures, 43 PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION xiii

xiv CONTENTS Research Projects, 44 In-time Algorithms, 44 Emergent Risks, 45 Computational Architectures, 46 5 MITIGATION AND IMPLEMENTATION 49 Challenges, 50 In-time Mitigation Techniques, 50 Unintended Consequences of IASMS Actions, 51 Trust in IASMS Safety Assurance Actions, 51 System Verification, Validation, and Certification, 52 Economic Challenge: Operators’ Costs and Benefits, 55 Research Projects, 56 In-time Mitigation Techniques, 56 Trust in IASMS Safety Assurance Actions, 57 System Verification, Validation, and Certification, 57 6 FINDINGS, RECOMMENDATIONS, AND ORGANIZATIONAL ROLES AND RESOURCES 59 Findings and Recommendations, 59 Roles and Resources, 62 APPENDIXES A Statement of Task 67 B Committee Member Biographies 69 C Acronyms 75 PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION

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Decades of continuous efforts to address known hazards in the national airspace system (NAS) and to respond to issues illuminated by analysis of incidents and accidents have made commercial airlines the safest mode of transportation. The task of maintaining a high level of safety for commercial airlines is complicated by the dynamic nature of the NAS. The number of flights by commercial transports is increasing; air traffic control systems and procedures are being modernized to increase the capacity and efficiency of the NAS; increasingly autonomous systems are being developed for aircraft and ground systems, and small aircraft—most notably unmanned aircraft systems—are becoming much more prevalent. As the NAS evolves to accommodate these changes, aviation safety programs will also need to evolve to ensure that changes to the NAS do not inadvertently introduce new risks.

Real-time system-wide safety assurance (RSSA) is one of six focus areas for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) aeronautics program. NASA envisions that an RSSA system would provide a continuum of information, analysis, and assessment that supports awareness and action to mitigate risks to safety. Maintaining the safety of the NAS as it evolves will require a wide range of safety systems and practices, some of which are already in place and many of which need to be developed. This report identifies challenges to establishing an RSSA system and the high-priority research that should be implemented by NASA and other interested parties in government, industry, and academia to expedite development of such a system.

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