IN-TIME AVIATION SAFETY MANAGEMENT
Challenges and Research for an Evolving Aviation System
Aviation Safety Assurance Committee
Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board
Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences
A Consensus Study Report of
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, DC
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This study is based on work supported by Contract NNH11CD57B with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any agency or organization that provided support for the project.
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-46880-0
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Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/24962
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Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. In-time Aviation Safety Management: Challenges and Research for an Evolving Aviation System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: https://doi.org/10.17226/24962.
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AVIATION SAFETY ASSURANCE COMMITTEE
KENNETH J. HYLANDER, Flight Safety Foundation, Chair
BRIAN M. ARGROW, University of Colorado, Boulder
MEYER J. BENZAKEIN, NAE,1 Ohio State University
GAUTAM BISWAS, Vanderbilt University
JOHN W. BORGHESE, Rockwell Collins
STEVEN J. BROWN, National Business Aviation Association
DANIEL K. ELWELL,2 Federal Aviation Administration
ANTHONY F. FAZIO, Fazio Group International
MICHAEL GARCIA, Aireon, LLC
R. JOHN HANSMAN, JR., NAE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
GERARDO D.M. HUETO, International Air Transport Association
LAUREN J. KESSLER, Charles Stark Draper Laboratory
JOHN C. KNIGHT,3 University of Virginia
MICHAEL J. McCORMICK, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University
BONNIE SCHWARTZ, Air Force Research Laboratory
CRAIG WANKE, The MITRE Corporation
Staff
ALAN C. ANGLEMAN, Senior Program Officer, Study Director
MICHAEL H. MOLONEY, Director, Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board and Space Studies Board
ANESIA WILKS, Senior Program Assistant
___________________
1 Member, National Academy of Engineering.
2 Resigned on April 18, 2017.
3 Passed away on February 23, 2017.
AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ENGINEERING BOARD
ALAN H. EPSTEIN, NAE,1 Pratt & Whitney, Chair
ELIZABETH R. CANTWELL, Arizona State University, Vice Chair
ARNOLD D. ALDRICH, Aerospace Consultant
BRIAN M. ARGROW, University of Colorado, Boulder
STEVEN J. BATTEL, NAE, Battel Engineering
MEYER J. BENZAKEIN, NAE, Ohio State University
BRIAN J. CANTWELL, NAE, Stanford University
EILEEN M. COLLINS, Space Presentations, LLC
MICHAEL P. DELANEY, Boeing Commercial Airplanes
KAREN FEIGH, Georgia Institute of Technology
NICHOLAS D. LAPPOS, Sikorsky, a Lockheed Martin Company
MARK J. LEWIS, IDA Science and Technology Policy Institute
VALERIE MANNING, Airbus
RICHARD McKINNEY, Consultant
PARVIZ MOIN, NAS2/NAE, Stanford University
JOHN M. OLSON, Polaris Industries
ROBIE I. SAMANTA ROY, Lockheed Martin Corporation
AGAM N. SINHA, ANS Aviation International, LLC
ALAN M. TITLE, NAS/NAE, Lockheed Martin Advanced Technology Center
DAVID M. VAN WIE, NAE, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory
IAN A. WAITZ, NAE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
SHERRIE L. ZACHARIUS, Aerospace Corporation
Staff
MICHAEL H. MOLONEY, Director
CARMELA J. CHAMBERLAIN, Administrative Coordinator
TANJA PILZAK, Manager, Program Operations
CELESTE A. NAYLOR, Information Management Associate
MEG A. KNEMEYER, Financial Officer
SU LIU, Financial Assistant (through July 2017)
ANTHONY BRYANT, Financial Assistant (from November 2017)
___________________
1 Member, National Academy of Engineering.
2 Member, National Academy of Sciences.
Preface
Commercial aviation in the United States and most other regions of the world is the safest mode of transportation. This high-level safety is the result of many factors, including decades of investments by industry and government and the dedication of researchers, engineers, pilots, air traffic controllers, and a great many other members of the aviation community.
The U.S. national airspace system (NAS) is constantly evolving to take advantage of new technologies, to accommodate growth in the volume of air traffic, to integrate new types of aircraft, to increase efficiency, and to maintain or increase safety. NASA’s Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) conducts research related to several of these topics, including aviation safety. For example, ARMD is conducting research to support development of a real-time safety assurance system for the NAS. Such a system would operate in real time or near real time to monitor the state of the NAS, identify unsafe risks as they arise, and then assist in mitigating those risks. Research by many organizations other than NASA is relevant to the development of a real-time safety assurance system. Accordingly, ARMD requested that the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine convene a committee to develop a national research agenda that would (1) identify key challenges to the development of a real-time safety assurance system for the NAS and (2) identify high-priority research projects that would overcome those challenges.
The Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board of the National Academies Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences has assembled a committee to carry out the assigned statement of task (see Appendix A). The committee members (see Appendix B) met four times during 2017, three times at the Academies’ facilities in Washington, D.C., and once at the National Academies’ facility in Woods Hole, Massachusetts. As specified in the statement of task, the committee has developed a research agenda consisting of a set of high-priority research projects organized around four key elements of a real-time aviation safety assurance system: concept of operations and risk prioritization, system monitoring, system analytics, and mitigation and implementation. The report’s principal finding summarizes the key challenges, and the principal recommendation summarizes the high-priority research projects (see Chapter 6).
Kenneth Hylander, Chair
Aviation Safety Assurance Committee
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Acknowledgment of Reviewers
This Consensus Study Report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published report as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process.
We thank the following individuals for their review of this report:
Ella M. Atkins, University of Michigan,
R. Stephen Berry, NAS,1 University of Chicago,
Raj M. Bharadwaj, Honeywell Aerospace Advanced Technologies,
Stephen J. Lloyd, SJL and Associates, Inc.,
James T. Luxhøj, Rutgers University,
Brad Shelton, Delta Air Lines,
Agam N. Sinha, ANS Aviation International, LLC,
Alexander J. Smits, NAE,2 Princeton University, and
John Valasek, Texas A&M University.
Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations of this report nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Chris T. Hendrickson, NAS, Carnegie Mellon University. He was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with the standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Academies.
___________________
1 Member, National Academy of Sciences.
2 Member, National Academy of Engineering.
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In Memoriam
This report is dedicated to Dr. John C. Knight, an accomplished researcher and educator in the field of safety-critical computer systems, especially in the automotive and aerospace fields. He embraced the opportunity to serve on the Aviation Safety Assurance Committee despite a long-term battle with hypersensitivity pneumonitis, and we have missed his camaraderie and counsel in the completion of this work.
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Contents
A Real-Time Aviation Safety Assurance System
In-time Aviation Safety Management System (IASMS)
2 IASMS CONCEPT OF OPERATIONS AND RISK PRIORITIZATION
Identifying and Prioritizing Risks
National Airspace System Evolution
IASMS Concept of Operations and National Airspace System Evolution
Identifying and Prioritizing Risks
Collecting Data on the Performance of Operators
5 MITIGATION AND IMPLEMENTATION
Unintended Consequences of IASMS Actions
Trust in IASMS Safety Assurance Actions
System Verification, Validation, and Certification
Trust in IASMS Safety Assurance Actions
System Verification, Validation, and Certification
6 FINDINGS, RECOMMENDATIONS, AND ORGANIZATIONAL ROLES AND RESOURCES
