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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. In-Time Aviation Safety Management: Challenges and Research for an Evolving Aviation System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24962.
×

IN-TIME AVIATION SAFETY MANAGEMENT
Challenges and Research for an Evolving Aviation System

Aviation Safety Assurance Committee

Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board

Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

A Consensus Study Report of

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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. In-Time Aviation Safety Management: Challenges and Research for an Evolving Aviation System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24962.
×

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This study is based on work supported by Contract NNH11CD57B with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any agency or organization that provided support for the project.

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Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. In-time Aviation Safety Management: Challenges and Research for an Evolving Aviation System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: https://doi.org/10.17226/24962.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. In-Time Aviation Safety Management: Challenges and Research for an Evolving Aviation System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24962.
×

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The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, nongovernmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president.

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Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.nationalacademies.org.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. In-Time Aviation Safety Management: Challenges and Research for an Evolving Aviation System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24962.
×

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Consensus Study Reports published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine document the evidence-based consensus on the study’s statement of task by an authoring committee of experts. Reports typically include findings, conclusions, and recommendations based on information gathered by the committee and the committee’s deliberations. Each report has been subjected to a rigorous and independent peer-review process and it represents the position of the National Academies on the statement of task.

Proceedings published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine chronicle the presentations and discussions at a workshop, symposium, or other event convened by the National Academies. The statements and opinions contained in proceedings are those of the participants and are not endorsed by other participants, the planning committee, or the National Academies.

For information about other products and activities of the National Academies, please visit www.nationalacademies.org/about/whatwedo.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. In-Time Aviation Safety Management: Challenges and Research for an Evolving Aviation System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24962.
×

AVIATION SAFETY ASSURANCE COMMITTEE

KENNETH J. HYLANDER, Flight Safety Foundation, Chair

BRIAN M. ARGROW, University of Colorado, Boulder

MEYER J. BENZAKEIN, NAE,1 Ohio State University

GAUTAM BISWAS, Vanderbilt University

JOHN W. BORGHESE, Rockwell Collins

STEVEN J. BROWN, National Business Aviation Association

DANIEL K. ELWELL,2 Federal Aviation Administration

ANTHONY F. FAZIO, Fazio Group International

MICHAEL GARCIA, Aireon, LLC

R. JOHN HANSMAN, JR., NAE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

GERARDO D.M. HUETO, International Air Transport Association

LAUREN J. KESSLER, Charles Stark Draper Laboratory

JOHN C. KNIGHT,3 University of Virginia

MICHAEL J. McCORMICK, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University

BONNIE SCHWARTZ, Air Force Research Laboratory

CRAIG WANKE, The MITRE Corporation

Staff

ALAN C. ANGLEMAN, Senior Program Officer, Study Director

MICHAEL H. MOLONEY, Director, Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board and Space Studies Board

ANESIA WILKS, Senior Program Assistant

___________________

1 Member, National Academy of Engineering.

2 Resigned on April 18, 2017.

3 Passed away on February 23, 2017.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. In-Time Aviation Safety Management: Challenges and Research for an Evolving Aviation System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24962.
×

AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ENGINEERING BOARD

ALAN H. EPSTEIN, NAE,1 Pratt & Whitney, Chair

ELIZABETH R. CANTWELL, Arizona State University, Vice Chair

ARNOLD D. ALDRICH, Aerospace Consultant

BRIAN M. ARGROW, University of Colorado, Boulder

STEVEN J. BATTEL, NAE, Battel Engineering

MEYER J. BENZAKEIN, NAE, Ohio State University

BRIAN J. CANTWELL, NAE, Stanford University

EILEEN M. COLLINS, Space Presentations, LLC

MICHAEL P. DELANEY, Boeing Commercial Airplanes

KAREN FEIGH, Georgia Institute of Technology

NICHOLAS D. LAPPOS, Sikorsky, a Lockheed Martin Company

MARK J. LEWIS, IDA Science and Technology Policy Institute

VALERIE MANNING, Airbus

RICHARD McKINNEY, Consultant

PARVIZ MOIN, NAS2/NAE, Stanford University

JOHN M. OLSON, Polaris Industries

ROBIE I. SAMANTA ROY, Lockheed Martin Corporation

AGAM N. SINHA, ANS Aviation International, LLC

ALAN M. TITLE, NAS/NAE, Lockheed Martin Advanced Technology Center

DAVID M. VAN WIE, NAE, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory

IAN A. WAITZ, NAE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

SHERRIE L. ZACHARIUS, Aerospace Corporation

Staff

MICHAEL H. MOLONEY, Director

CARMELA J. CHAMBERLAIN, Administrative Coordinator

TANJA PILZAK, Manager, Program Operations

CELESTE A. NAYLOR, Information Management Associate

MEG A. KNEMEYER, Financial Officer

SU LIU, Financial Assistant (through July 2017)

ANTHONY BRYANT, Financial Assistant (from November 2017)

___________________

1 Member, National Academy of Engineering.

2 Member, National Academy of Sciences.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. In-Time Aviation Safety Management: Challenges and Research for an Evolving Aviation System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24962.
×

Preface

Commercial aviation in the United States and most other regions of the world is the safest mode of transportation. This high-level safety is the result of many factors, including decades of investments by industry and government and the dedication of researchers, engineers, pilots, air traffic controllers, and a great many other members of the aviation community.

The U.S. national airspace system (NAS) is constantly evolving to take advantage of new technologies, to accommodate growth in the volume of air traffic, to integrate new types of aircraft, to increase efficiency, and to maintain or increase safety. NASA’s Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) conducts research related to several of these topics, including aviation safety. For example, ARMD is conducting research to support development of a real-time safety assurance system for the NAS. Such a system would operate in real time or near real time to monitor the state of the NAS, identify unsafe risks as they arise, and then assist in mitigating those risks. Research by many organizations other than NASA is relevant to the development of a real-time safety assurance system. Accordingly, ARMD requested that the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine convene a committee to develop a national research agenda that would (1) identify key challenges to the development of a real-time safety assurance system for the NAS and (2) identify high-priority research projects that would overcome those challenges.

The Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board of the National Academies Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences has assembled a committee to carry out the assigned statement of task (see Appendix A). The committee members (see Appendix B) met four times during 2017, three times at the Academies’ facilities in Washington, D.C., and once at the National Academies’ facility in Woods Hole, Massachusetts. As specified in the statement of task, the committee has developed a research agenda consisting of a set of high-priority research projects organized around four key elements of a real-time aviation safety assurance system: concept of operations and risk prioritization, system monitoring, system analytics, and mitigation and implementation. The report’s principal finding summarizes the key challenges, and the principal recommendation summarizes the high-priority research projects (see Chapter 6).

Kenneth Hylander, Chair
Aviation Safety Assurance Committee

Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. In-Time Aviation Safety Management: Challenges and Research for an Evolving Aviation System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24962.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. In-Time Aviation Safety Management: Challenges and Research for an Evolving Aviation System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24962.
×

Acknowledgment of Reviewers

This Consensus Study Report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published report as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process.

We thank the following individuals for their review of this report:

Ella M. Atkins, University of Michigan,

R. Stephen Berry, NAS,1 University of Chicago,

Raj M. Bharadwaj, Honeywell Aerospace Advanced Technologies,

Stephen J. Lloyd, SJL and Associates, Inc.,

James T. Luxhøj, Rutgers University,

Brad Shelton, Delta Air Lines,

Agam N. Sinha, ANS Aviation International, LLC,

Alexander J. Smits, NAE,2 Princeton University, and

John Valasek, Texas A&M University.

Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations of this report nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Chris T. Hendrickson, NAS, Carnegie Mellon University. He was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with the standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Academies.

___________________

1 Member, National Academy of Sciences.

2 Member, National Academy of Engineering.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. In-Time Aviation Safety Management: Challenges and Research for an Evolving Aviation System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24962.
×

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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. In-Time Aviation Safety Management: Challenges and Research for an Evolving Aviation System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24962.
×

In Memoriam

This report is dedicated to Dr. John C. Knight, an accomplished researcher and educator in the field of safety-critical computer systems, especially in the automotive and aerospace fields. He embraced the opportunity to serve on the Aviation Safety Assurance Committee despite a long-term battle with hypersensitivity pneumonitis, and we have missed his camaraderie and counsel in the completion of this work.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. In-Time Aviation Safety Management: Challenges and Research for an Evolving Aviation System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24962.
×

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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. In-Time Aviation Safety Management: Challenges and Research for an Evolving Aviation System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24962.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. In-Time Aviation Safety Management: Challenges and Research for an Evolving Aviation System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24962.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. In-Time Aviation Safety Management: Challenges and Research for an Evolving Aviation System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24962.
×
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. In-Time Aviation Safety Management: Challenges and Research for an Evolving Aviation System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24962.
×
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. In-Time Aviation Safety Management: Challenges and Research for an Evolving Aviation System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24962.
×
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. In-Time Aviation Safety Management: Challenges and Research for an Evolving Aviation System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24962.
×
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. In-Time Aviation Safety Management: Challenges and Research for an Evolving Aviation System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24962.
×
Page R7
Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. In-Time Aviation Safety Management: Challenges and Research for an Evolving Aviation System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24962.
×
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. In-Time Aviation Safety Management: Challenges and Research for an Evolving Aviation System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24962.
×
Page R9
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. In-Time Aviation Safety Management: Challenges and Research for an Evolving Aviation System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24962.
×
Page R10
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. In-Time Aviation Safety Management: Challenges and Research for an Evolving Aviation System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24962.
×
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. In-Time Aviation Safety Management: Challenges and Research for an Evolving Aviation System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24962.
×
Page R12
Page xiii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. In-Time Aviation Safety Management: Challenges and Research for an Evolving Aviation System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24962.
×
Page R13
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. In-Time Aviation Safety Management: Challenges and Research for an Evolving Aviation System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24962.
×
Page R14
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Decades of continuous efforts to address known hazards in the national airspace system (NAS) and to respond to issues illuminated by analysis of incidents and accidents have made commercial airlines the safest mode of transportation. The task of maintaining a high level of safety for commercial airlines is complicated by the dynamic nature of the NAS. The number of flights by commercial transports is increasing; air traffic control systems and procedures are being modernized to increase the capacity and efficiency of the NAS; increasingly autonomous systems are being developed for aircraft and ground systems, and small aircraft—most notably unmanned aircraft systems—are becoming much more prevalent. As the NAS evolves to accommodate these changes, aviation safety programs will also need to evolve to ensure that changes to the NAS do not inadvertently introduce new risks.

Real-time system-wide safety assurance (RSSA) is one of six focus areas for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) aeronautics program. NASA envisions that an RSSA system would provide a continuum of information, analysis, and assessment that supports awareness and action to mitigate risks to safety. Maintaining the safety of the NAS as it evolves will require a wide range of safety systems and practices, some of which are already in place and many of which need to be developed. This report identifies challenges to establishing an RSSA system and the high-priority research that should be implemented by NASA and other interested parties in government, industry, and academia to expedite development of such a system.

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