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Suggested Citation:"Notes." National Academy of Sciences. 2021. Regional Ballistic Missile Defense in the Context of Strategic Stability. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24964.
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Notes

1. Treaty Between The United States of America and The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics on The Limitation of Anti-Ballistic Missile Systems (ABM Treaty), signed May 26, 1972, available at https://www.state.gov/t/avc/trty/101888.htm, accessed on October 23, 2018.

2. Treaty Between the United States of America and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics on the Elimination of their Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missiles (INF Treaty), signed December 8, 1987, available at https://fas.org/nuke/control/inf/text/inf.htm, accessed on May 20, 2019.

3. INF Treaty, 1987.

4. INF Treaty, 1987.

5. Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START II), signed January 3, 1993, available at https://www.state.gov/t/avc/trty/104150.htm#text, accessed on October 22, 2018.

6. Treaty Between the United States of America and the Russian Federation on Strategic Offensive Reductions (the Treaty of Moscow), signed May 24, 2002, available at https://www.state.gov/t/avc/trty/127129.htm#1, accessed on October 22, 2018.

7. Treaty between the United States of America and the Russian Federation on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (New START Treaty), entered into force February 5, 2011, available at https://www.state.gov/t/avc/newstart/, accessed on October 22, 2018.

8. Treaty on Open Skies, signed March 24, 1992, available at https://www.state.gov/t/avc/trty/102337.htm, accessed on January 22, 2019.

9. Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism (GICNT), 2015, available at http://www.gicnt.org/, accessed on October 22, 2018.

10. Proliferation Security Initiative, available at https://www.psi-online.info/, accessed on January 22, 2019.

11. Bendavid, N., June 23, 2014, “Removal of Chemical Weapons from Syria is Completed,” The Wall Street Journal, available at https://www.wsj.com/articles/removal-of-chemical-weapons-from-syria-is-completed-1403529356, accessed on October 24, 2018.

12. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action on the Iran Nuclear Program, finalized July 14, 2015, available at https://www.state.gov/documents/organization/245317.pdf, accessed on October 22, 2018.

13. ABM Treaty, 1972.

14. The White House, September 17, 2009, “Fact Sheet: U.S. Missile Defense Policy A Phased, Adaptive Approach for Missile Defense in Europe,” available at https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/fact-sheet-us-missile-defense-policy-a-phased-adaptive-approach-missile-defense-eur, accessed on October 22, 2018.

15. Memorandum of Agreement Between the United States of America and the Russian Federation on the Establishment of a Joint Center for the Exchange of Data from Early Warning Systems and Notifications of Missile Launches, signed June 4, 2000, available at https://www.state.gov/t/isn/4799.htm, accessed on January 11, 2019.

Suggested Citation:"Notes." National Academy of Sciences. 2021. Regional Ballistic Missile Defense in the Context of Strategic Stability. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24964.
×

16. Russia objected to the EPAA approach and made several counterproposals. For a summary of the Russian position, see then-President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev’s statement: The Kremlin, November 23, 2011, “Statement in connection with the situation concerning the NATO countries’ missile defence system in Europe,” available at http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/13637, accessed on October 24, 2018.

17. The White House, 2009.

18. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2012, Missile Defense: Toward a New Paradigm, available at https://carnegieendowment.org/files/WGP_MissileDefense_FINAL.pdf, accessed on June 14, 2019.

19. Steinbruner, John, July 2001, The Significance of Joint Missile Surviellance, 10-11 Committee on International Security Studies, Amerian Academy of Arts and Sciences, available at https://www.amacad.org/publication/significance-joint-missile-surveillance/section/2#A6, accessed on July 24, 2019.

20. The White House, June 6, 1990, “Soviet-United States Joint Statement on Future Negotiations on Nuclear and Space Arms and Further Enhancing Strategic Stability,” available at https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/soviet-united-states-joint-future-negotiations-nuclear-and-space-arms-and-further, accessed on October 22, 2018. The joint statement was made available by the Office of the Press Secretary but was not issued as a White House press release.

21. U.S. Department of State, 1983, “Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI), 1983,” available at: https://2001-2009.state.gov/r/pa/ho/time/rd/104253.htm, accessed on May 17, 2019.

22. Arbatov, A., and V. Dvorkin (eds.), 2012, Nuclear Reset: Arms Reduction and Nonproliferation, English version edited by Natalia Bubnova, 432–456 (Moscow: Carnegie Moscow Center).

23. Connolly, R., and M. Boulegue, 2018, “Russia’s New State Armament Program: Implications for the Russian Armed Forces and Military Capabilities to 2027” (The Chatham House: The Royal Institute of International Affairs), available at https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/publications/research/2018-05-10-russia-statearmament-programme-connolly-boulegue-final.pdf, accessed on October 31, 2018.

24. Woolf, A., February 24, 2016, Conventional Prompt Global Strike and Long-Range Ballistic Missiles: Background and Issues, Congressional Research Service, R41464, available at http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/1005382.pdf, accessed on October 22, 2018.

25. O’Rourke, R., December 17, 2015, Navy Virginia (SSN-774) Class Attack Submarine Procurement: Background and Issues for Congress, Congressional Research Service, RL32415, available at http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/1000791.pdf, accessed on October 22, 2018.

26. Arbatov, A., and V. Dvorkin (eds.), 2013, Missile Defense: Confrontation and Cooperation, English version edited by Natalia Bubnova, 147–166 (Moscow: Carnegie Moscow Center), available at https://carnegieendowment.org/files/Missile_Defense_book_eng_fin2013.pdf, accessed on October 22, 2018.

27. Dvorkin, V., February 22, 2013, “Poststrategicheskaia stabil’nost’ i destabilizirushchie faktori [Post-Strategic Stability and Destabilizing Factors],” Nzavisimoye Voyennoye Obozeniye [Independent Military Review] , available at http://nvo.ng.ru/concepts/2013-02-22/1_models.html, accessed on June 4, 2019.

28. Arbatov, A., and V. Dvorkin (eds.) 2013, 183–203; Wilkening, D., 2012, “Does Missile Defence in Europe Threaten Russia?” Survival: Global Politics and Strategy, 54(1):31–52, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2012.657531, accessed on January 17, 2019.

29. NATO Parliamentary Assembly, 2017, Ballistic Missile Defence and NATO: General Report, available at https://www.nato-pa.int/document/2017-ballistic-missile-defence-and-nato-day-report-161-dsc-17-e-bis, accessed on October 22, 2018.

Suggested Citation:"Notes." National Academy of Sciences. 2021. Regional Ballistic Missile Defense in the Context of Strategic Stability. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24964.
×

30. Feickert, A., July 26, 2005, Missile Survey: Ballistic and Cruise Missiles of Selected Foreign Countries, Congressional Research Service, RL30427, available at http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/crs/rl30427.pdf, accessed on January 17, 2019.

31. Sokolski, H. D., 2015, Underestimated: Our Not So Peaceful Nuclear Future (Washington, DC: Nonproliferation Education Policy Center). Sokolski cites the following: (1) Arms Control Association, updated 2017, “Worldwide Ballistic Missile Inventories,” available at http://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/missiles, accessed on January 17, 2019; (2) Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI), “Country Profiles,” available at http://www.nti.org/country-profiles/, accessed on January 17, 2019; and (3) Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), “Missiles of the World,” available at http://missilethreat.com/missiles-of-the-world/, accessed on October 22, 2018.

32. U.S. Department of Defense, February 2010, Ballistic Missile Defense Review Report, VI, available at http://archive.defense.gov/bmdr/docs/BMDR%20as%20of%2026JAN10%200630_for%20web.pdf, accessed on October 24, 2018.

33. References for Table 2-2

Suggested Citation:"Notes." National Academy of Sciences. 2021. Regional Ballistic Missile Defense in the Context of Strategic Stability. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24964.
×

34 Kristensen, H. M. and Norris, R. S., 2018, “North Korean nuclear capabilities, 2018,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, available at https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00963402.2017.1413062, accessed on June 13, 2019. Schilling, J., 2017, “What is True About North Korea’s Hwasong-14 ICBM: A Technical Evaluation,” 38 North, available at https://www.38north.org/2017/07/jschilling071017/, accessed June 13, 2019.

35. Arbatov, A., and V. Dvorkin (eds.), 2013, 281-285; Nagappa, R. et al., 2014; NASIC and DIBMAC, 2017; NTI and CNS, 2014; Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI), 2015; Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI), 2016a; Sankaran, 2014.

36. NASIC and DIBMAC, 2017. See also Davenport 2018.

37. GlobalSecurity.org, 2019, “Ghauri-III/Abdali.” Available at https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/pakistan/abdali.htm. Accessed on June 14, 2019.

Suggested Citation:"Notes." National Academy of Sciences. 2021. Regional Ballistic Missile Defense in the Context of Strategic Stability. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24964.
×

38. Dawn, December 11, 2015, “Pakistan Successfully test-fires Shaheen-III missiles,” available at http://www.dawn.com/news/1225688, accessed on October 23, 2018.

39. Arbatov and Dvorkin 2012, 103–116.

40. Davenport, 2018; Chanlett-Avery, E., I. Rinehart, and M. Nikitin, updated July 27, 2018, North Korea: U.S. Relations, Nuclear Diplomacy, and Internal Situation, Congressional Research Service, R41259, available at https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R41259, accessed on January 18, 2019; Nikitin, M., April 3, 2013, North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons: Technical Issues, Congressional Research Service, RL34256, available at https://fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/RL34256.pdf, accessed on October 23, 2018.

41. NTI, 2019.

42. See NASIC and DIBMAC, 2017.

43. NTI, 2019.

44. Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation 2017; CNS and NTI 2016; Davenport 2018; FAS 2016; Grisafi 2014; NASIC and DIBMAC 2017; NTI 2016b; NTI 2017a; NTI 2019; Schiller and Schumucker 2013; Schilling and Kan 2015.

45. Schiller and Schumucker, 2013.

46. Elleman, M., February 10, 2016, “North Korea Launches Another Large Rocket: Consequences and Options,” 38 North (blog), available at http://38north.org/2016/02/melleman021016/, accessed on October 23, 2018.

47. Bender, J., April 10, 2015, “Top NORAD General: North Korea has a nuclear-capable missile that can hit the US,” Business Insider, available at http://www.businessinsider.com/us-general-north-korea-has-nuclear-capable-missile-that-can-hit-us-2015-4, accessed on October 23, 2018.

48. See Davenport 2018; Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI), updated 2019, “North Korea,” available at https://www.nti.org/learn/countries/north-korea/, accessed on January 22, 2019; FAS, 2016; Schiller and Schumucker 2013; Schilling and Kan 2015; Grisafi, J., August 16, 2014, “Recent Launches Revealed as Surface-to-Surface Missile,” NK News, available at http://www.nknews.org/2014/08/recent-launches-revealed-as-surface-to-surface-missile/, accessed on October 23, 2018.

49. Elleman, 2013.

50. Arbatov and Dvorkin (eds.), 2013, 106.

51. Arbatov and Dvorkin (eds.), 2013, 281-285; Elleman, 2013; Hildreth, 2012; NASIC and DIBMAC, 2017; NTI, 2013; NTI, 2017b; Postol, 2009; Sankaran, 2014, 53.

52. See NTI, 2017.

53. Ibid.

54. See CSIS, 2019, “Sejjil,” CSIS Missile Defense Project, available at https://missilethreat.csis.org/missile/sejjil/, accessed on August 7, 2019.

55. Nagappa, R., et al., 2009, “Iran’s Safir Launch Vehicle,” International Strategic and Security Studies Programme, National Institute of Advanced Studies, available at http://isssp.in/wpcontent/uploads/2009/07/Irans-Safir-lanch-Vechicle-Report.pdf, accessed on October 23, 2018.

56. See NASIC and DIBMAC, 2017 and Arbatov and Dvorkin (eds.), 2013, 91–106.

57. See the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action on the Iran Nuclear Program, 2015.

58. Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) can be read in full here: NPT, 1970, available at https://www.un.org/disarmament/wmd/nuclear/npt/text, accessed on October 23, 2018.

59. See full text: Resolution 1931 (2010), United National Security Council, available at http://unscr.com/en/resolutions/1929, accessed on May 15, 2019.

Suggested Citation:"Notes." National Academy of Sciences. 2021. Regional Ballistic Missile Defense in the Context of Strategic Stability. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24964.
×

60. See full text: Resolution 2231 (2015), United Nations Security Council, available at http://unscr.com/en/resolutions/2231, accessed on May 15, 2019.

61. Nikitin, M., P. Kerr, and S. Hildreth, October 25, 2012, Proliferation Control Regimes: Background and Status, 44, Congressional Research Service, RL31559, available at http://www.au.af.mil/AU/AWC/awcgate/crs/rl31559.pdf, accessed on January 18, 2019; Rennack, D., November 30, 2010, Nuclear, Biological, Chemical, and Missile Proliferation Sanctions: Selected Current Law, 40, Congressional Research Service, RL31502, available at https://fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/RL31502.pdf, accessed on January 18, 2019.

62. See the INF Treaty, 1987.

63. See full text: Resolution 1540 (2004), United Nations Security Council, available at http://www.un.org/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=S/RES/1540%20(2004), accessed on October 23, 2018.

64. Air Force Space Command, March 22, 2017, “Space Based Infrared Sytem,” available at https://www.afspc.af.mil/About-Us/Fact-Sheets/Display/Article/1012596/space-based-infraredsystem/, accessed July 24, 2019.

65. U.S. Air Force, November 23, 2015, “Defense Support Program Satellites,” available at https://www.af.mil/About-Us/Fact-Sheets/Display/Article/104611/defense-support-programsatellites/, accessed July 24, 2019.

66. U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO), July 25, 2013, “Congressional Committees: Missile Defense: Precision Tracking Space System Evaluation of Alternatives,” available at https://www.gao.gov/assets/660/656213.pdf, accessed on October 23, 2018.

67. National Research Council, 2012, Making Sense of Ballistic Missile Defense: An Assessment of Concepts and Systems for U.S. Boost-Phase Missile Defense in Comparison to Other Alternatives (Washington, DC: The National Academies Press), available at https://doi.org/10.17226/13189.

68. O’Rourke, R., updated April 25, 2019, Navy Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) Program: Background and Issues for Congress, Congressional Research Service, RL33745, available at https://fas.org/sgp/crs/weapons/RL33745.pdf, accessed on May 17, 2019.

69. Fedasiuk, R., and Reif, K., April 2018, “U.S. Missile Defense Plan Delayed,” Arms Control Association, available at https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2018-04/news-briefs/us-missile-defense-plan-delayed, accessed on May 20, 2019.

70. LaGrone, S., May 12, 2016, “Aegis Ashore Site in Romania Declared Operational,” USNI News, available at https://news.usni.org/2016/05/12/aegis-ashore-site-in-romania-declared-operational, accessed on October 24, 2018.

71. Sankaran, J., 2015, The United States’ European Phased Adaptive Approach Missile Defense System: Defending Against Iranian Threats Without Diluting Russian Deterrent, 3 (Santa Monica: National Security Research Division, RAND Corporation).

72. See Sankaran, 2015, 3–4; Reif, K., updated 2019, The European Phased Adaptive Approach at a Glance, available at https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Phasedadaptiveapproach, accessed on January 22, 2019.

73. See National Research Council, 2012, 77.

74. Reif, K., 2019, “The European Phased Adaptive Approach at a Glance,” Arms Control Association, available at https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Phasedadaptiveapproach, accessed on August 6, 2019.

75. See National Research Council, 2012, 77.

76. Ibid, 96–100.

77. Ibid.

Suggested Citation:"Notes." National Academy of Sciences. 2021. Regional Ballistic Missile Defense in the Context of Strategic Stability. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24964.
×

78. Cooper, J., May 2018, “The Russian State Armament Programme, 2018–2027,” NATO Defense College, available at http://www.ndc.nato.int/news/news.php?icode=1167, accessed on May 9, 2019.

79. Agreement Between The United States of America and The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics on Notifications of Launches of Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles and Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missiles (Ballistic Missile Launch Notification Agreement), signed May 31, 1988, available at http://www.state.gov/t/avc/trty/187150.htm, accessed on October 24, 2018.

80. The Kremlin, November 5, 2010, “Ratification of Russian-Chinese Agreement on Notification of Missile and Rocket Launches,” available at http://en.kremlin.ru/acts/news/9434, accessed on October 24, 2018.

81. The U.S. Air Force Space Command, 2017 (updated 2019), “Space Based Infrared System,” available at https://www.afspc.af.mil/About-Us/Fact-Sheets/Display/Article/1012596/space-basedinfrared-system/, accessed on August 6, 2019.

82. Northrop Grumman, 2013, “Space Tracking and Surveillance System Demonstrators,” available at http://www.northropgrumman.com/Capabilities/STSS/Documents/pageDocs/STSS_Datasheet.pdf, accessed on October 24, 2018.

83. Congressional Budget Office, U.S. Congress, 2007, Alternatives for Military Space Radar, available at https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/ftpdocs/76xx/doc7691/01-03-spaceradar.pdf, accessed on October 24, 2018.

84. See National Research Council, 2012, 119.

85. Ibid., ix.

86. See GAO, 2013.

87. Mehta, A., November 16, 2015, “Could U.S. and Russia Enhance Intel Relationship?” Defense News, available at https://www.defensenews.com/breaking-news/2015/11/16/could-us-and-russiaenhance-intel-relationship/, accessed on October 24, 2018. Director Brennan’s remarks were given at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.

88. Wilkening, D., 2012, “Cooperating with Russia on Missile Defense: A New Proposal,” Arms Control Today, available at https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2012_03/Cooperating_With_Russia_on_Missile_Defense_A_New_Proposal, accessed on October 24, 2018.

89. The White House, May 24, 2002, “President Bush, Russian President Putin Sign Nuclear Arms Treaty,” available at https://2001-2009.state.gov/t/ac/rls/rm/10526.htm, accessed on October 26, 2018.

90. NATO, 2007, “Fact Sheet: Missile Defence,” available at https://www.nato.int/docu/pr/2007/p070418e.pdf, accessed on October 26, 2018.

91. Sheremet, I. 2012. “Russia’s Assessment of NATO-Russia Theatre Missile Defence Exercise.” Powerpoint presentation at the International BMD Conference. Moscow, Russia.

92. Ibid.

93. Sheremet, I., 2012, see also Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation, 2019, “The 4th Central Research Institute of the Russian Defence Ministry,” available at https://eng.mil.ru/en/science/sro/infrmation.htm?id=10807@morfOrgScience, accessed on May 20, 2019.

94. Shanker, T., April 24, 2007, “Russia Cool to U.S. Call for Cooperation on Missile Defense,” The New York Times, available at https://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/24/world/europe/24gates.html, accessed on May 20, 2019.

Suggested Citation:"Notes." National Academy of Sciences. 2021. Regional Ballistic Missile Defense in the Context of Strategic Stability. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24964.
×

95. Spetalnick, M., and Shchedrov, O., July 2, 2007, “Putin Makes New Offer to Bush on Missile Plan,” Reuters, available at https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bush-putin/putin-makes-new-offer-to-bush-on-missile-plan-idUSN3032912020070703, accessed on October 26, 2018.

96. See Sheremet, 2012.

97. The White House, April 2008, “U.S.-Russia Strategic Framework Declaration,” available at https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2008/04/20080406-4.html, accessed on October 26, 2018.

98. U.S. Department of State, 2013, U.S.-Russia Bilateral Presidential Commission: 2013 Joint Annual Report, available at https://2009-2017.state.gov/p/eur/ci/rs/usrussiabilat/219086.htm., accessed on May 9, 2019.

99. See Arbatov and Dvorkin (eds.), 2013, 16.

100. See Sheremet, 2012.

101. NATO, May 20, 2012, Chicago Summit Declaration, available at https://www.nato.int/cps/ra/natohq/official_texts_87593.htm?selectedLocale=en, accessed on October 29, 2018.

102. Rogov, S., et al., 2012, “Ten Years Without the ABM Treaty: The Issue of Missile Defense in Russian-US Relations,” (Moscow: Institute for the US and Canadian Studies).

103. The Kremlin, May 23, 2013, “International Conference The Military and Political Aspects of European Security,” available at http://en.kremlin.ru/events/administration/18168, accessed on August 7, 2019.

104. The Kremlin, June 18, 2013, news conference following the G8 Summit, available at http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/18361, accessed on October 29, 2018.

105. The Kremlin, April 17, 2014, “Direct Line with Vladimir Putin,” available at http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/20796, accessed on October 29, 2018.

106. U.S. Department of Defense, March 3, 2014, “DOD Puts Military-to-Military Activities with Russia on Hold,” American Forces Press Services, available at http://archive.defense.gov/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=121759, accessed on October 29, 2018.

107. National Research Council, 2012.

108. Ibid, 25.

109. Ibid, 106.

Suggested Citation:"Notes." National Academy of Sciences. 2021. Regional Ballistic Missile Defense in the Context of Strategic Stability. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24964.
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As ballistic missile technology proliferates, and as ballistic missile defenses are deployed by both the Russian Federation and the United States, it is increasingly important for these two countries to seek ways to reap the benefits of systems that can protect their own national security interests against limited missile attacks from third countries without undermining the strategic balance that the two governments maintain to ensure stability. Regional Ballistic Missile Defense in the Context of Strategic Stability examines both the technical implications of planned missile defense deployments for Russian and U.S. strategic deterrents and the benefits and disadvantages of a range of options for cooperation on missile defense.

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