MEASURING
THE 21ST CENTURY
SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING
WORKFORCE POPULATION

EVOLVING NEEDS

Panel to Evaluate the National Center for
Science and Engineering Statistics Approach to
Measuring the Science and Engineering Workforce

Committee on National Statistics

Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education

A Consensus Study Report of

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This activity was supported by contracts between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Science Foundation (#SES-1024012). Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project.

International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-46913-5
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-46913-9
Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/24968

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Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. (2018). Measuring the 21st Century Science and Engineering Workforce Population: Evolving Needs. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: https://doi.org/10.17226/24968.

PANEL TO EVALUATE THE NATIONAL CENTER FOR SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING STATISTICS APPROACH TO MEASURING THE SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING WORKFORCE

RITA COLWELL (Cochair), Department of Cell Biology and Molecular Genetics, University of Maryland and Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University

JAMES S. HOUSE (Cochair), Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan

JENNIFER SUE BOND, Council on Competitiveness

GEOFF DAVIS, Google, Inc.

DONALD DILLMAN, Department of Sociology, Washington State University

RICHARD FREEMAN, Department of Economics, Harvard University

JACK GAMBINO, Statistics Canada

MARESI NERAD, College of Education, University of Washington

RANDALL OLSEN, Department of Economics, Ohio State University

WILLIE PEARSON, JR., School of History, Technology, and Society, Georgia Institute of Technology

KEITH RUST, Westat

NORA CATE SCHAEFFER, Department of Sociology, University of Wisconsin–Madison

JAMES WAGNER, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan

YU XIE, Department of Sociology, Princeton University

KRISZTINA MARTON, Study Director

ANTHONY MANN, Program Coordinator

COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL STATISTICS

ROBERT M. GROVES (Chair), Office of the Provost, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, and Department of Sociology, Georgetown University

FRANCINE BLAU, School of Industrial and Labor Relations, Cornell University

MARY ELLEN BOCK, Department of Statistics, Purdue University (emerita)

ANNE C. CASE, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University

MICHAEL CHERNEW, Department of Health Care Policy, Harvard Medical School

JANET CURRIE, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University

DONALD DILLMAN, Social and Economic Sciences Research Center, Washington State University

CONSTANTINE GATSONIS, Center for Statistical Sciences, Brown University

JAMES S. HOUSE, Survey Research Center, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan

THOMAS MESENBOURG, U.S. Census Bureau (retired)

SARAH NUSSER, Office of the Vice President for Research and Department of Statistics, Iowa State University

COLM O’MUIRCHEARTAIGH, Harris School of Public Policy Studies, University of Chicago

JEROME P. REITER, Department of Statistical Science, Duke University

ROBERTO RIGOBON, Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

JUDITH A. SELTZER, Department of Sociology, University of California, Los Angeles

EDWARD SHORTLIFFE, Department of Biomedical Informatics, Columbia University/Arizona State University

BRIAN HARRIS-KOJETIN, Director

CONSTANCE F. CITRO, Senior Scholar

Acknowledgments

Personally, and on behalf of the Panel to Evaluate the National Center for Science and Engineering Statistics Approach to Measuring the Science and Engineering Workforce, we wish to thank all those who contributed their time and expertise to inform the panel’s work. The study was initiated by the National Science Foundation’s (NSF) National Center for Science and Engineering Statistics (NCSES) under the guidance of director John Gawalt and deputy director Emilda Rivers. The panel would like to thank the NSF staff who assisted the panel with presentations and background materials, including Mark Fiegener, Beethika Khan, and Kelly Phou from NCSES and Matthew Wilson from the National Science Board Office. Throughout the course of the study, the panel especially benefited from the able and very generous assistance provided by John Finamore, program director of the NSF Human Resources Statistics Program.

The panel’s understanding of the needs of data users was greatly expanded by the presentations at a public workshop of William Bonvillian, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Lisa Frehill, Energetics Technology Center; Fernando Galindo-Rueda, OECD, France; Donna Ginther, University of Kansas; William Harris, Science Foundation Arizona; Kaye Husbands Fealing, Georgia Institute of Technology; Janet Metcalfe, Vitae, United Kingdom; Leigh Ann Pennington, Oak Ridge Institute for Science Education; Michael Roach, Cornell University; Neil Ruiz, George Washington University; Beate Scholz, independent consultant, Germany; John Skrentny, University of California, San Diego; Tobin Smith, Association of American Universities; Andrea Stith, BioFrontiers, University of Colorado Boulder; Prasanna Tambe, New York University; Yu Tao, Stevens Institute

of Technology; Michael Teitelbaum, Harvard University; and Brian Yoder, American Society for Engineering Education.

The panel’s work was supported by the capable staff of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. Brian Harris-Kojetin, director, and Connie Citro, former director, Committee on National Statistics, provided institutional leadership. Krisztina Marton superbly directed the study. Kirsten Sampson-Snyder, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, oversaw the report review process. The report also greatly benefited from the meticulous editing provided by Rona Briere of Briere Associates, Inc. We also thank program associate Anthony Mann for very friendly and efficient logistical support for the panel’s meetings.

Finally, and most important, we greatly appreciated the work of our fellow panel members, whose dedication, patience, and commitment made this report possible: Jennifer Bond, Council on Competitiveness; Geoff Davis, Google, Inc.; Don Dillman, Washington State University; Richard Freeman, Harvard University; Jack Gambino, Statistics Canada; Maresi Nerad, University of Washington; Randy Olsen, Ohio State University; Willie Pearson, Georgia Institute of Technology; Keith Rust, Westat; Nora Cate Schaeffer, University of Wisconsin–Madison; James Wagner, University of Michigan; and Yu Xie, Princeton University. Panel members were chosen for their expertise, subject matter knowledge, and varied perspectives, serving on the panel as individuals, not as representatives of their employers or organizations. They were a pleasure to work with, increasingly becoming a very intellectually and scientifically engaged and opinionated group, and a quite cohesive one as well.

This Consensus Study Report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published report as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process.

We thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Norman M. Bradburn, senior fellow at NORC at the University of Chicago; Patrick J. Cantwell, Decennial Statistical Studies Division, U.S. Census Bureau; Bonnie J. Dunbar, Aerospace Engineering, TEES Institute for Engineering Education and Innovation, Texas A&M; John L. Eltinge, Research and Methodology, U.S. Census Bureau; Donna K. Ginther, Department of Economics, University of Kansas; Richard C. Larson, Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Shirley M. Malcom, Directorate for Education and Human Resources Programs, American Association for the Advancement of Science; Kristen Olson,

Department of Sociology, University of Nebraska–Lincoln; and Brady T. West, Survey Methodology Program, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan.

Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations of this report, nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this report was overseen by report review coordinator V. Joseph Hotz, Department of Economics, Duke University, and report review monitor Kenneth Wachter, Departments of Demography and Statistics (emeritus), University of California, Berkeley. They were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with the standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. The quality of the report has been enhanced by the entire review process. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Academies.

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Acronyms and Abbreviations

Contents

SUMMARY

1 INTRODUCTION AND FRAMEWORK FOR THE FUTURE

Historical Context

NCSES’s Current Approach to Measuring the Science and Engineering Workforce

An Aspirational Framework for the Future

Conclusion

2 BACKGROUND ON THE SURVEYS

The NCSES Human Resources Statistics Program

NCSES Education Surveys

NCSES Workforce Surveys

Prior Committee on National Statistics Studies

3 EVOLVING DATA NEEDS

Workshop on Data Needs

Career Pathways

International Mobility and Comparisons

Work Activities, Training, and Skills

Employment Outcomes, Research Productivity, and Entrepreneurship

Work Environments and Work–Life Balance

Possible Strategies for Expanding Data on the Science and Engineering Workforce

International Efforts and Collaborations to Expand Science and Engineering Workforce Data

Monitoring of Future Data Needs

4 SAMPLE DESIGN AND ESTIMATION PROCEDURES

NCSES’s Workforce Surveys

Sample Design

Estimation Methods

5 DATA COLLECTION AND PROCESSING

Overview of Data Collection Procedures for the Workforce Surveys

Data Collection Modes

Survey Content

Maintaining Panel Participation and Response Rates

Data Processing

6 DATA ANALYSIS, DISSEMINATION, AND OUTREACH

Key Data Products

Access to Microdata

Publications

REFERENCES

APPENDIXES

A Figures and Tables in the 2016 Science and Engineering Indicators Report That Use Data from the Survey of Graduate Students and Postdoctorates in Science and Engineering, the Survey of Earned Doctorates, the National Survey of College Graduates and the Survey of Doctorate Recipients

B Questionnaire Content Crosswalk

C Workshop on Data Needs Agenda

D Potential Uses of Unemployment Insurance Earnings Data to Enhance Longitudinal Data

E Biographical Sketches of Panel Members and Staff

Figures, Tables, and Boxes

FIGURES

2-1 Population coverage for the National Survey of College Graduates, Survey of Doctorate Recipients, and Early Career Doctorates Survey

3-1 Current workforce sizes and annual fluxes before and after receiving a doctorate in the biomedical sciences

3-2 Principal job work activities question in the National Survey of College Graduates and Survey of Doctorate Recipients

3-3 Principal job work activities question in the Early Career Doctorates Survey pilot study (Web survey script)

3-4 Training questions in the National Survey of College Graduates and Survey of Doctorate Recipients

3-5 Questions about professional activities in the Early Career Doctorates Survey pilot study (Web survey script)

3-6 Questions about principal job work activities in the Early Career Doctorates Survey pilot study (Web survey script)

4-1 Sample design of the National Survey of College Graduates

4-2 Number of Survey of Doctorate Recipients sample members residing abroad by degree year, 2013 and 2015

5-1 Sample member contact strategy for the National Survey of College Graduates

5-2 Sample member contact strategy for the Survey of Doctorate Recipients

5-3 Sample member contact strategy for the Early Career Doctorates Survey

5-4 Principal employer question on the National Survey of College Graduates and Survey of Doctorate Recipients

TABLES

1-1 Science and Engineering Education and Workforce Surveys of the National Center for Science and Engineering Statistics

4-1 Sample of the 2015 Survey of Doctorate Recipients, by Cohort

5-1 Key Data Collection Characteristics of the NCSES Education and Workforce Surveys

5-2 National Survey of College Graduates Web Survey Response by Device, 2013 and 2015

BOXES

1-1 Statement of Task

2-1 Main Topics in the Survey of Graduate Students and Postdoctorates in Science and Engineering

2-2 Main Topics in the Survey of Earned Doctorates

2-3 Main Topics in the National Survey of College Graduates

2-4 Main Topics in the Survey of Doctorate Recipients

2-5 Main Topics in the Early Career Doctorates Survey