National Academies Press: OpenBook
« Previous: Front Matter
Suggested Citation:"1 Introduction." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Emerging Trends and Methods in International Security: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25058.
×

1

Introduction

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), which oversees and directs the work of the 17 agencies and organizations responsible for foreign, military, and domestic intelligence for the United States, has a growing interest in research from the social and behavioral sciences that may be beneficial to the Intelligence Community (IC). To develop a systematic understanding of these potential benefits, ODNI requested that the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine conduct a decadal survey of the social and behavioral sciences to identify research opportunities that show promise for supporting national security efforts in the next 10 years.

THE DECADAL SURVEY OF SOCIAL AND BEHAVIORAL SCIENCES FOR APPLICATIONS TO NATIONAL SECURITY

A decadal survey is a method for engaging members of a research community to identify lines of research with the greatest potential utility in the pursuit of a particular goal. The National Academies pioneered this type of survey with a study of ground-based astronomy in 1964.1 Since then, committees appointed by the National Academies have conducted more than 15 decadal surveys. The Decadal Survey of Social and Behavioral Sciences for Applications to National Security represents the first opportunity to apply this approach to the social and behavioral sciences.

___________________

1 National Academy of Sciences. (1964). Ground-Based Astronomy: A Ten-Year Program. Washington, DC: National Academy Press. doi: https://doi.org/10.17226/13212 [April 2018].

Suggested Citation:"1 Introduction." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Emerging Trends and Methods in International Security: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25058.
×

Its purpose is to develop an understanding of the lines of research in these fields that offer the greatest potential to enhance the capabilities of the IC. To carry out this work, the National Academies appointed the Committee on the Decadal Survey of Social and Behavioral Sciences for Applications to National Security (Decadal Survey Committee); the committee’s charge appears in Appendix A.

The Decadal Survey Committee has pursued many avenues in collecting information about the needs of the IC and relevant cutting-edge research in the social and behavioral sciences. As part of its information-gathering process, the committee held a series of six workshops—the first three on October 11, 2017, and the second three on January 24, 2018. These workshops, for which planning began early in the committee process, were designed to explore areas about which the committee wished to learn more and to allow the committee to engage with a broad range of experts. The topics selected for the workshops do not necessarily indicate the ultimate direction of the committee’s deliberations.2 The six topics addressed by the workshops were

  1. changing sociocultural dynamics and implications for national security;
  2. emerging trends and methods in international security;
  3. leveraging advances in social network thinking for national security;
  4. learning from the science of cognition and perception for decision making;
  5. workforce development and intelligence analysis; and
  6. understanding narratives for national security purposes.

Separate steering committees, whose membership included both members of the Decadal Survey Committee and additional experts in the topics to be addressed, were appointed to plan these workshops. Each of these committees was guided by its own charge. All were asked to bring their expertise to bear in identifying specific areas of promising research and experts with deep knowledge who could offer a range of insights.

This proceedings of a workshop, prepared by the workshop rapporteur, summarizes the presentations and discussions at the second workshop, on emerging trends and methods in international security. This workshop was planned by the Steering Committee on Understanding Strategic Reasoning for National Security Purposes, whose charge is presented in Box 1-1. The workshop’s purpose was to explore the current state of research on political

___________________

2 For more information about the Decadal Survey and all of the workshops, see http://sites.nationalacademies.org/dbasse/bbcss/sbs_for_national_security-decadal_survey/index.htm [January 2018].

Suggested Citation:"1 Introduction." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Emerging Trends and Methods in International Security: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25058.
×

and strategic reasoning in the context of international security. It should be noted that the steering committee’s role was limited to planning and convening the workshop, and that the views contained in this proceedings are those of individual workshop participants and do not necessarily represent the views of all workshop participants, the steering committee, or the National Academies.3 The agenda for the workshop appears in Appendix B; a list of individuals who attended the three workshops held on October 11, 2017, is presented in Appendix C; and biographical sketches of the steering committee members and speakers are provided in Appendix D.

OBJECTIVES FOR THE SIX WORKSHOPS

In an opening session for the three October 11, 2017, workshops, the chair of the Decadal Survey Committee, Paul Sackett, University of Minnesota, and sponsor representative David Honey, ODNI, provided background information on the objectives for the six workshops.

Sackett observed that the Decadal Survey Committee will rely heavily on input from experts in the communities of national security and behavioral and social science research. Given the breadth of the committee’s charge, he explained, it must cast a wide net, extending well beyond the specific expertise of its members. He described the six workshops as an

___________________

3 For the archived Webcast of the workshop and available presentations, see http://sites.nationalacademies.org/DBASSE/BBCSS/DBASSE_181267 [November 2017].

Suggested Citation:"1 Introduction." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Emerging Trends and Methods in International Security: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25058.
×

important part of the effort to gather ideas. The workshops would support the committee by helping to identify promising research areas and allowing the committee members to engage in discussion with experts in a wide range of areas salient to its work.4

Honey expressed appreciation to all those contributing to the committee’s work through the workshops and other activities, noting that the participation of the full range of experts in the intelligence and behavioral and social science communities would be needed to make the decadal study successful. Making predictions about future directions for research is difficult, he acknowledged, but in his view it is necessary. He noted that the final report of the Decadal Survey Committee will be “a very powerful tool” for government officials who must make decisions regarding funding and other priorities. The decadal model, he explained, “offered the best opportunity” to identify research directions and priorities that reflect a wide range of insights and perspectives. “Decision makers are really asking much deeper and more probing questions today than we’ve seen before,” he said. “They really want to know why surprising movements such as the Arab Spring [uprisings that began in 2010] occur. The national security community is eager for new ways to understand such events and how to respond to them, and also for better ways to assess their interventions after the fact.” Honey thanked the participants for contributing, emphasizing that their ideas would be “crucial for getting us where we need to go.”

INTRODUCTION TO THE WORKSHOP ON EMERGING TRENDS AND METHODS IN INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

Consequential actors in international relations are growing in both number and diversity, noted steering committee chair Jeffrey Taliaferro, Tufts University, in opening the workshop. While complex and substantive issues continue to present new challenges, he said, the field of international security has evolved to embrace numerous academic disciplines, theoretical schools, methodologies, and ontologies. Thus, he explained, the workshop was planned as an opportunity for discussion with experts from a variety of domains. He added that the steering committee invited experts to explore three areas that shed light on both issues and methods in the international security arena: the changing nature and international security implications of status, power, and reputation among state and nonstate actors; cyber policy and security; and methods of forecasting negative developments with security implications. For the discussion of forecasting, the steering committee sought to examine approaches used in disparate domains, including

___________________

4 For more information on activities associated with the Decadal Survey, see http://nas.edu/SBSDecadalSurvey.

Suggested Citation:"1 Introduction." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Emerging Trends and Methods in International Security: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25058.
×

public health and the environment. Taliaferro acknowledged that a 1-day workshop could not begin to address the full range of current international security challenges, but explained that the presentations and discussions would allow participants to examine possible links across domains.

STRUCTURE OF THIS PROCEEDINGS

This proceedings follows the structure of the workshop. Chapter 2 summarizes the workshop presentations and discussions on the changing nature of status, power, and reputation. Chapter 3 turns to the strategic use of information, summarizing presentations and discussions on cyber-enabled information warfare and influence operations, Internet regulation under authoritarian governments, and the use of strategic cyber persistence. Chapter 4 explores forecasting methods and topics. Chapter 5 reviews trends in social science methods relevant to intelligence analysis. Finally, Chapter 6 includes the reflections of a panel of distinguished scholars on the presentations summarized in Chapters 2 through 5.

Suggested Citation:"1 Introduction." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Emerging Trends and Methods in International Security: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25058.
×

This page intentionally left blank.

Suggested Citation:"1 Introduction." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Emerging Trends and Methods in International Security: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25058.
×
Page 1
Suggested Citation:"1 Introduction." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Emerging Trends and Methods in International Security: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25058.
×
Page 2
Suggested Citation:"1 Introduction." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Emerging Trends and Methods in International Security: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25058.
×
Page 3
Suggested Citation:"1 Introduction." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Emerging Trends and Methods in International Security: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25058.
×
Page 4
Suggested Citation:"1 Introduction." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Emerging Trends and Methods in International Security: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25058.
×
Page 5
Suggested Citation:"1 Introduction." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Emerging Trends and Methods in International Security: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25058.
×
Page 6
Next: 2 Status, Power, and Reputation »
Emerging Trends and Methods in International Security: Proceedings of a Workshop Get This Book
×
Buy Paperback | $50.00 Buy Ebook | $40.99
MyNAP members save 10% online.
Login or Register to save!
Download Free PDF

Beginning in October 2017, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine organized a set of workshops designed to gather information for the Decadal Survey of Social and Behavioral Sciences for Applications to National Security. The second workshop focused on emerging trends and methods in international security and this publication summarizes the presentations and discussions from this workshop.

  1. ×

    Welcome to OpenBook!

    You're looking at OpenBook, NAP.edu's online reading room since 1999. Based on feedback from you, our users, we've made some improvements that make it easier than ever to read thousands of publications on our website.

    Do you want to take a quick tour of the OpenBook's features?

    No Thanks Take a Tour »
  2. ×

    Show this book's table of contents, where you can jump to any chapter by name.

    « Back Next »
  3. ×

    ...or use these buttons to go back to the previous chapter or skip to the next one.

    « Back Next »
  4. ×

    Jump up to the previous page or down to the next one. Also, you can type in a page number and press Enter to go directly to that page in the book.

    « Back Next »
  5. ×

    Switch between the Original Pages, where you can read the report as it appeared in print, and Text Pages for the web version, where you can highlight and search the text.

    « Back Next »
  6. ×

    To search the entire text of this book, type in your search term here and press Enter.

    « Back Next »
  7. ×

    Share a link to this book page on your preferred social network or via email.

    « Back Next »
  8. ×

    View our suggested citation for this chapter.

    « Back Next »
  9. ×

    Ready to take your reading offline? Click here to buy this book in print or download it as a free PDF, if available.

    « Back Next »
Stay Connected!