Service Life Assessment and
Predictive Modeling for an
Aging Critical Infrastructure
PROCEEDINGS OF A WORKSHOP
Linda Casola, Rapporteur
Defense Materials Manufacturing and Infrastructure
Standing Committee
National Materials and Manufacturing
Board Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, DC
www.nap.edu
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This activity was supported by Contract No. W911NF-10-C-0098 with the Department of Defense. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project.
Cover Image: As our infrastructure continues to age, it is important to understand in advance how long it will continue to serve us. By predictive modeling of the service life, it is possible to plan ahead and act, and not just watch our future erode away. Graphic Artist: Erik Svedberg.
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-47574-7
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-47574-0
Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/25107
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Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Service Life Assessment and Predictive Modeling for an Aging Critical Infrastructure: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/25107.
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DEFENSE MATERIALS MANUFACTURING AND INFRASTRUCTURE STANDING COMMITTEE
MICHAEL F. McGRATH, McGrath Analytics, LLC, Chair
VALERIE BROWNING, ValTech Solutions, LLC
JESUS M. DE LA GARZA, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University
ROSARIO A. GERHARDT, Georgia Institute of Technology
PAUL J. KERN, NAE,1 The Cohen Group
ROBERT H. LATIFF, R. Latiff Associates
E. WARD PLUMMER, NAS,2 Louisiana State University
ROBERT E. SCHAFRIK, NAE, GE Aviation
DENISE SWINK, Independent Consultant
A. GALIP ULSOY, NAE, University of Michigan
HAYDN N.G. WADLEY, University of Virginia
Staff
ERIK B. SVEDBERG, Senior Program Officer
HEATHER LOZOWSKI, Financial Manager
NEERAJ P. GORKHALY, Assistant Program Officer
HENRY KO, Research Assistant
JOSEPH PALMER, Senior Program Assistant
LINDA C. CASOLA, Rapporteur
MICHELLE K. SCHWALBE, Acting Director, National Materials and Manufacturing Board (from April 2021)
JAMES LANCASTER, Acting Director, National Materials and Manufacturing Board (through April 2021)
___________________
1 Member, National Academy of Engineering.
2 Member, National Academy of Sciences.
NATIONAL MATERIALS AND MANUFACTURING BOARD
BEN WANG, Georgia Institute of Technology, Chair
RODNEY C. ADKINS, NAE,1 IBM Corporate Strategy (retired)
JIM C.I. CHANG, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan
LEO CHRISTODOULOU, Boeing, Inc.
THOMAS M. DONNELLAN, Applied Research Laboratory
STEPHEN FORREST, NAS2/NAE, University of Michigan
ERICA FUCHS, Carnegie Mellon University
JACK HU, NAE, University of Michigan
THERESA KOTANCHECK, Evolved Analytics, LLC
DAVID LARBALESTIER, Florida State University
ROBERT MILLER, IBM Almaden Research Center
EDWARD MORRIS, NCDMM, NAMII
NICHOLAS A. PEPPAS, NAE/NAM,3 University of Texas, Austin
TRESA M. POLLOCK, NAE, University of California, Santa Barbara
F. STAN SETTLES, University of Southern California
HAYDN N.G. WADLEY, University of Virginia
STEVE ZINKLE, NAE, University of Tennessee, Knoxville
Staff
MICHELLE K. SCHWALBE, Acting Director (from April 2021)
JAMES LANCASTER, Acting Director (through April 2021)
ERIK B. SVEDBERG, Senior Program Officer
HEATHER LOZOWSKI, Financial Manager
NEERAJ P. GORKHALY, Assistant Program Officer
HENRY KO, Research Assistant
JOSEPH PALMER, Senior Program Assistant
___________________
1 Member, National Academy of Engineering.
2 Member, National Academy of Sciences.
3 Member, National Academy of Medicine.
Acknowledgment of Reviewers
This Proceedings of a Workshop was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published proceedings as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the process.
We thank the following individuals for their review of this proceedings:
Dianne Chong, NAE,1 Boeing Research and Technology (Retired),
Robert Pohanka, National Nanotechnology Coordination Office,
Kyle Stanish, University of Southern California, and
David Trejo, Oregon State University.
Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the content of the proceedings nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this proceedings was overseen by Del Eulberg, Booz Allen Hamilton. He was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this proceedings was carried
___________________
1 Member, National Academy of Engineering.
out in accordance with standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the rapporteur and the National Academies.
Contents
Workshop Overview and Organization of the Proceedings
Opening Remarks and Workshop Objectives
Department of Defense Programs for National Defense: Highways, Railroads, and Seaports
Pavements and Modeling Service Life
Breakthrough in Self-Healing Damage-Tolerant Concrete Technology for Resilient Infrastructure
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Civil Works Infrastructure Portfolio Management
