Appendix B
Workshop Agenda
LEARNING FROM THE SCIENCE OF COGNITION AND PERCEPTION FOR DECISION MAKING: A WORKSHOP
January 24, 2018
Keck Center
500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC
Room 100
8:30 a.m. | Workshop Registration Opens |
9:00 a.m. | Workshops Commence |
9:00 a.m. | Welcome and Overview of Events |
Sujeeta Bhatt, Study Director | |
Audience information | |
Paul Sackett, University of Minnesota, SBS Decadal Survey Chair | |
Welcome | |
William “Bruno” Millonig, Acting Director of National Intelligence for Science and Technology, Office of the Director of National Intelligence | |
Sponsor perspective and context for study and workshops | |
9:30 a.m. | Opening Remarks |
Jeremy Wolfe, Harvard Medical School, Workshop Committee Chair | |
9:35 a.m. | Data and Analysis in the Intelligence Community |
Thomas Fingar, Stanford University |
Research Panel Presentations and Discussion
9:55 a.m. | Panel 1: Forecasting and Anticipatory Thinking |
This panel will discuss methods of improving the accuracy of human forecasts from large, dispersed crowds. In addition, it will cover research on anticipatory thinking or mental simulations, planning, and preparing for events. What differentiates experts from novices in both of these domains? What aspects of these skills can be trained? How can people be prepared to forecast and think about a broad range of possible futures, especially low probability, high impact events? | |
How is research in this area likely to progress in the near future? What research questions need to be addressed? What new methodologies and tools are available? |
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Moderator: Sallie Keller, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University | |
Barbara Mellers, University of Pennsylvania Title: Returns to precision |
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Gary Klein, MacroCognition LLC Title: Challenges for engaging in anticipatory thinking |
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Alyson Wilson, North Carolina State University Title: Prediction and anticipatory thinking |
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10:45 a.m. | Discussion and Q&A Moderators, Presenters, and Members of the Committee on a Decadal Survey of Social and Behavioral Sciences for Applications to National Security |
11:45 a.m. | LUNCH |
12:45 p.m. | Panel 2: Trust |
This panel will consider the state of the science on trust in three respects: What is known about an individual’s level of trust with respect to data and sources; with respect to automated analyses—output of machines and models; and with respect to people. |
How is research in this area likely to progress in the near future? What research questions need to be addressed? What new methodologies and tools are available? | |
Moderators: Fran Moore, CENTRA Technology, Inc. | |
David Dunning, University of Michigan Title: Interpersonal trust: Current findings and mysteries |
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Roger Mayer, North Carolina State University Title: The importance of interpersonal trust: Now more than ever |
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Adam Waytz, Northwestern University Title: Humans and machines |
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Victoria Stodden, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign Title: Trust in research findings |
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1:45 p.m. | Discussion and Q&A Moderators, Presenters, and Members of the Committee on a Decadal Survey of Social and Behavioral Sciences for Applications to National Security |
2:30 p.m. | BREAK |
2:45 p.m. | Panel 3: Perceptual and cognitive constraints on and aids for analysis and presentation |
This panel will consider the state of the science on perception and cognition as it applies toward how individuals make sense of information. How do they deal with massive amounts or high dimensional data? What techniques can be used to reduce or analyze data to information that can be used for anomaly detection or decision making? What is known about presentation to make information more memorable? Do certain forms of presentations play into people’s biases? | |
How is research in this area likely to progress in the near future? What research questions need to be addressed? What new methodologies and tools are available? |
Moderators: Barbara Dosher, University of California, Irvine | |
Edward Awh, University of Chicago Title: Capacity limits in online memory and attention |
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Danielle Albers Szafir, University of Colorado, Boulder Title: Visualization and perception across scales |
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Remco Chang, Tufts University Title: From vision science to data science: Applying perception to problems in big data |
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Peter L.T. Pirolli, Florida Institute for Human & Machine Cognition Title: Integrated cognitive models for collaborative human–AI sensemaking |
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3:45 p.m. | Discussion and Q&A Moderators, Presenters, and Members of the Committee on a Decadal Survey of Social and Behavioral Sciences for Applications to National Security |
4:40 p.m. | Closing Remarks from Workshop Committee |
5:00 p.m. | ADJOURN |