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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Assessing the Risks of Integrating Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) into the National Airspace System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25143.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Assessing the Risks of Integrating Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) into the National Airspace System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25143.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Assessing the Risks of Integrating Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) into the National Airspace System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25143.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Assessing the Risks of Integrating Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) into the National Airspace System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25143.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Assessing the Risks of Integrating Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) into the National Airspace System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25143.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Assessing the Risks of Integrating Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) into the National Airspace System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25143.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Assessing the Risks of Integrating Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) into the National Airspace System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25143.
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Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Assessing the Risks of Integrating Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) into the National Airspace System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25143.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Assessing the Risks of Integrating Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) into the National Airspace System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25143.
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Page R9
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Assessing the Risks of Integrating Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) into the National Airspace System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25143.
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Below is the uncorrected machine-read text of this chapter, intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text of each book. Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.

Prepublication Copy – Subject to Further Editorial Correction Assessing the Risks of Integrating Unmanned Aircraft Systems into the National Airspace System Committee on Assessing the Risks of Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) Integration Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences A Consensus Study Report of PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 This study is based on work supported by Contract XXXXXX with the Federal Aviation Administration. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any agency or organization that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: XXX-X-XXX-XXXXX-X International Standard Book Number-10: X-XXX-XXXXX-X Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/25143 Cover: Copies of this publication are available free of charge from Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Keck Center of the National Academies 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 Additional copies of this publication are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2018 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Assessing the Risks of Integrating Unmanned Aircraft Systems into the National Airspace System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/25143. PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION

The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, nongovernmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., is president. The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president. The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The National Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine. Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.nationalacademies.org. PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION

Consensus Study Reports published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine document the evidence-based consensus on the study’s statement of task by an authoring committee of experts. Reports typically include findings, conclusions, and recommendations based on information gathered by the committee and the committee’s deliberations. Each report has been subjected to a rigorous and independent peer-review process and it represents the position of the National Academies on the statement of task. Proceedings published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine chronicle the presentations and discussions at a workshop, symposium, or other event convened by the National Academies. The statements and opinions contained in proceedings are those of the participants and are not endorsed by other participants, the planning committee, or the National Academies. For information about other products and activities of the National Academies, please visit www.nationalacademies.org/about/whatwedo. PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION

COMMITTEE ON ASSESSING THE RISKS OF UNMANNED AIRCRAFT SYSTEMS (UAS) INTEGRATION GEORGE T. LIGLER, NAE,1 GTL Associates, Chair BRIAN M. ARGROW, University of Colorado, Boulder GREGORY B. BAECHER, NAE, University of Maryland, College Park STEPHEN P. COOK, Northrop Grumman Corporation LOUIS ANTHONY COX, JR., NAE, Cox Associates LETICIA CUELLAR-HENGARTNER, Los Alamos National Laboratory MARGARET T. JENNY, RTCA, Inc. ANDREW R. LACHER, The MITRE Corporation KAREN B. MARAIS, Purdue University PAUL E. MCDUFFEE, Insitu, Inc. AMY R. PRITCHETT, Pennsylvania State University AGAM N. SINHA, ANS Aviation International, LLC KAREN E. WILLCOX, Massachusetts Institute of Technology CRAIG A. WOOLSEY, Virginia Tech Staff DWAYNE A. DAY, Senior Program Officer, Study Director SARAH BROTHERS, Associate Program Officer MICHAEL H. MOLONEY, Director, Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board and Space Studies Board DIONNA WISE, Senior Program Assistant ALAN ANGLEMAN, Senior Program Officer 1 Member, National Academy of Engineering. PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION v

AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ENGINEERING BOARD ALAN H. EPSTEIN, NAE,1 Pratt & Whitney, Chair ELIZABETH R. CANTWELL, Arizona State University, Vice Chair ARNOLD D. ALDRICH, Aerospace Consultant BRIAN M. ARGROW, University of Colorado, Boulder STEVEN J. BATTEL, NAE, Battel Engineering MEYER J. BENZAKEIN, NAE, Ohio State University BRIAN J. CANTWELL, NAE, Stanford University EILEEN M. COLLINS, Space Presentations, LLC MICHAEL P. DELANEY, Boeing Commercial Airplanes KAREN FEIGH, Georgia Institute of Technology NICHOLAS D. LAPPOS, Sikorsky, a Lockheed Martin Company MARK J. LEWIS, IDA Science and Technology Policy Institute VALERIE MANNING, Airbus RICHARD MCKINNEY, Consultant PARVIZ MOIN, NAS2/NAE, Stanford University JOHN M. OLSON, Polaris Industries ROBIE I. SAMANTA ROY, Lockheed Martin Corporation AGAM N. SINHA, ANS Aviation International, LLC ALAN M. TITLE, NAS/NAE, Lockheed Martin Advanced Technology Center DAVID M. VAN WIE, NAE, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory IAN A. WAITZ, NAE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology SHERRIE L. ZACHARIUS, Aerospace Corporation Staff MICHAEL H. MOLONEY, Director CARMELA J. CHAMBERLAIN, Administrative Coordinator TANJA PILZAK, Manager, Program Operations CELESTE A. NAYLOR, Information Management Associate MEG A. KNEMEYER, Financial Officer SU LIU, Financial Assistant 1 Member, National Academy of Engineering. 2 Member, National Academy of Sciences. PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION vi

Preface In 2017, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) asked the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to undertake a study of the risks of unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) integration into the National Airspace System. The National Academies formed a committee that met three times between fall 2017 and early 2018. This is a dynamic subject that was changing as the committee was finalizing its report and even during the report’s review. Nevertheless, the committee sought to provide findings and recommendations that will help the FAA to foster an environment in which UAS can operate safely within the National Airspace System while also contributing to public health, safety, and economic growth. George Ligler, Chair Committee on Assessing the Risks of Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) Integration PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION vii

Acknowledgment of Reviewers This Consensus Study Report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published report as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Norman Abramson, Southwest Research Institute (ret.) Ella Atkins, University of Michigan Gary Church, Aviation Management Associates John-Paul Clarke, Georgia Institute of Technology Christopher Hegarty, The MITRE Corporation Robert Kayen, University of California, Berkeley Vijay Kumar, University of Pennsylvania Ali Mosleh, UCLA Institute for Risk Peter Sachs, Altiscope John Tylko, Aurora Flight Sciences, Harrison Wolf, World Economic Forum Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations of this report nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Robin McGuire of Lettice Consultants, International. He was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with the standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Academies. PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION viii

Contents SUMMARY 1 INTRODUCTION 1-1 2 BACKGROUND 2-1 3 CURRENT PRACTICES 3-1 4 EVOLVING THE DECISION-MAKING PARADIGM 4-1 5 BUILDING THE FUTURE 5-1 APPENDIXES A Statement of Task A-1 B Committee and Staff Biographical Information B-1 C The MIZOPEX Example: Flight Operations Denied C-1 D Speakers to the Committee D-1 E Acronyms E-1 PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION ix

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When discussing the risk of introducing drones into the National Airspace System, it is necessary to consider the increase in risk to people in manned aircraft and on the ground as well as the various ways in which this new technology may reduce risk and save lives, sometimes in ways that cannot readily be accounted for with current safety assessment processes. This report examines the various ways that risk can be defined and applied to integrating these Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) into the National Airspace System managed by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). It also identifies needs for additional research and developmental opportunities in this field.

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