VISIONS INTO VOYAGES
for Planetary Science in the Decade 2013-2022
A Midterm Review
Committee on the Review of Progress Toward Implementing the Decadal Survey
Vision and Voyages for Planetary Sciences
Space Studies Board
Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences
A Consensus Study Report of
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, DC
www.nap.edu
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This project was supported by Contract NNH06CE15B with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and Grant AST-1050744 with the National Science Foundation. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the view of any organization or agency that provided support for the project.
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-47933-2
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-47933-9
Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/25186
Cover: Design by Michael Okuda.
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Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Visions into Voyages for Planetary Science in the Decade 2013-2022: A Midterm Review. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: https://doi.org/10.17226/25186.
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COMMITTEE ON THE REVIEW OF PROGRESS TOWARD IMPLEMENTING THE DECADAL SURVEY VISION AND VOYAGES FOR PLANETARY SCIENCES
LOUISE M. PROCKTER, Lunar and Planetary Institute, Co-Chair
JOSEPH H. ROTHENBERG, Former NASA Associate Administrator for Space Flight and Goddard Center Director, Co-Chair
DAVID A. BEARDEN, Jet Propulsion Laboratory
SCOTT BOLTON, Southwest Research Institute
BARBARA A. COHEN, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
ANDREW M. DAVIS, University of Chicago
MELINDA DARBY DYAR, Mount Holyoke College and the Planetary Science Institute
ALAN W. HARRIS, MoreData! Inc.
AMANDA R. HENDRIX, Planetary Science Institute
BRUCE M. JAKOSKY, University of Colorado Boulder
MARGARET G. KIVELSON, NAS,1 University of California, Los Angeles
SCOTT L. MURCHIE, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory
JUAN PEREZ-MERCADER, Harvard University
MARK P. SAUNDERS, Independent Consultant
SUZANNE SMREKAR, Jet Propulsion Laboratory
DAVID J. STEVENSON, NAS, California Institute of Technology
Staff
DWAYNE DAY, Study Director
MIA BROWN, Research Associate
DIONNA WISE, Program Coordinator
___________________
1 Member, National Academy of Sciences.
SPACE STUDIES BOARD
FIONA HARRISON, NAS,1 California Institute of Technology, Chair
ROBERT D. BRAUN, NAE,2 University of Colorado Boulder, Vice Chair
DAVID N. SPERGEL, NAS, Princeton University and Center for Computational Astrophysics at the Simons Foundation, Vice Chair
JAMES G. ANDERSON, NAS, Harvard University
JEFF M. BINGHAM, Consultant
JAY C. BUCKEY, Geisel School of Medicine at Dartmouth College
MARY LYNNE DITTMAR, Dittmar Associates
JOSEPH FULLER, JR., Futron Corporation
THOMAS R. GAVIN, California Institute of Technology
SARAH GIBSON, National Center for Atmospheric Research
WESLEY T. HUNTRESS, Carnegie Institution of Washington
ANTHONY C. JANETOS, Boston University
CHRYSSA KOUVELIOTOU, NAS, George Washington University
DENNIS P. LETTENMAIER, NAE, University of California, Los Angeles
BARBARA SHERWOOD LOLLAR, University of Toronto
ROSALY M. LOPES, Jet Propulsion Laboratory
DAVID J. McCOMAS, Princeton University
LARRY PAXTON, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory
SAUL PERLMUTTER, NAS, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
ELIOT QUATAERT, University of California, Berkeley
HARLAN E. SPENCE, University of New Hampshire
MARK H. THIEMENS, NAS, University of California, San Diego
MEENAKSHI WADHWA, Arizona State University
Staff
RICHARD ROWBERG, Acting Director
COLLEEN HARTMAN, Director (from April 2018)
MICHAEL H. MOLONEY, Director (until April 2018)
CARMELA J. CHAMBERLAIN, Administrative Coordinator
TANJA PILZAK, Manager, Program Operations
CELESTE A. NAYLOR, Information Management Associate
MARGARET KNEMEYER, Financial Officer
ANTHONY BRYANT, Financial Assistant
___________________
1 Member, National Academy of Sciences.
2 Member, National Academy of Engineering.
Preface
In spring 2011 the National Research Council produced a report outlining the next decade in planetary sciences. That report, titled Vision and Voyages for Planetary Science in the Decade 2013-2022,1 and popularly referred to as the “planetary science decadal survey,” has provided high-level prioritization and guidance for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA’s) Planetary Science Division. Other considerations, such as budget realities, congressional language in authorization and appropriations bills, administration requirements, and cross-division and cross-directorate requirements (notably in retiring risk or providing needed information for the human program) are also necessary inputs to how NASA develops its planetary science program.
In 2016 NASA asked the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to undertake a study assessing NASA’s progress at meeting the objectives of the decadal survey. After the study was under way, Congress passed the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Transition Authorization Act of 2017 which called for NASA to engage the National Academies in a review of NASA’s Mars Exploration Program. NASA and the National Academies agreed to incorporate that review into the midterm study. That study has produced this report, which serves as a midterm assessment and provides guidance on achieving the goals in the remaining years covered by the decadal survey as well as preparing for the next decadal survey, currently scheduled to begin in 2020.
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1 National Research Council, Vision and Voyages for Planetary Science in the Decade 2013-2022, The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C., 2011.
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Acknowledgment of Reviewers
This Consensus Study Report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published report as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process.
We thank the following individuals for their review of this report:
Robert D. Braun, NAE,1 University of Colorado Boulder,
Wendy M. Calvin, University of Nevada, Reno,
Philip R. Christensen, Arizona State University,
Orlando Figueroa, Independent Consultant,
Martha S. Gilmore, Wesleyan University,
Scott G. Hubbard, Stanford University,
Stephen J. Mackwell, Universities Space Research Association,
Timothy J. McCoy, National Museum of Natural History, Smithsonian Institution,
Daniel J. Scheeres, NAE, University of Colorado Boulder,
Amy Simon, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center,
Norman H. Sleep, NAS,2 Stanford University, and
Jessica Sunshine, University of Maryland.
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Marcia J. Rieke, NAS, University of Arizona. She was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with the standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Academies.
___________________
1 Member, National Academy of Engineering.
2 Member, National Academy of Sciences.
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Contents
1 BACKGROUND ON THE DECADAL SURVEY AND MIDTERM ASSESSMENT
Decadal Survey Recommendations
NASA’s Planetary Research and Analysis Programs
NSF-Funded Research and Infrastructure
Recommended Program Descope Options
The Committee’s Charge and Tasks
The Committee’s Review Process
2 RECENT SCIENTIFIC DISCOVERIES
Ancient Climate and Loss of the Atmosphere
More Recent (<3 Ga Age) Climate Change
Cadence and Budget Considerations
R&A Programs and Technology Investment
Programmatic Balance (Among Mission Classes)
Medium (New Frontiers) Missions
Large Strategic (Flagship) Missions
Need for Large Strategic (Flagship) Program Cost/Risk Review Process
Space and Earth-Based Telescopes
Sample Curation and Laboratory Facilities
4 PLANETARY SCIENCE TECHNOLOGY
Technology Program Tactical and Strategic Investment Balance
Technology Development Management, TRL Maturation, and Mission Insertion
Technology Development Progress Assessment
Electric Propulsion and Advanced Solar Arrays
Communications and Data Bandwidth
Science Instruments and Detectors
Technology for Large Strategic (Flagship) Missions in the Next Decade
5 MARS EXPLORATION ARCHITECTURE
Mars Exploration Program Background
Present Status of the Mars Exploration Program
Mars Exploration Program History and Organization
Mars Exploration Program Missions in Flight and Development
Mars Exploration Program Future Plans
The Prospect of “Focused and Rapid” Mars Sample Return
Assessment of the Current Status of the Mars Program
Summary of the Current Status of the Mars Exploration Program
6 PREPARING FOR THE NEXT DECADAL SURVEY
National Civil Space Initiatives
Procedures to Deal with Unanticipated Situations
The Role of the Virtual Institutes
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