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Committee on Astronomy and Astrophysics Space Studies Board Board on Physics and Astronomy Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences A Consensus Study Report of
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 This activity was supported by Contract No. NNH11CD57B with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Grant No. AST-1533814 with the National Science Foundation, and Contract No. DE- SC0014211 with the Department of Energy. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-48238-7 International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-48238-0 Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/25212 Copies of this report are available free of charge from: Space Studies Board National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 Copyright 2018 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America Suggested Citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Report Series: Committee on Astronomy and AstrophysicsâMission Concept Studies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/25212.
The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, nongovernmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., is president. The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president. The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The National Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine. Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.nationalacademies.org.
Consensus Study Reports published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine document the evidence-based consensus on the studyâs statement of task by an authoring committee of experts. Reports typically include findings, conclusions, and recommendations based on information gathered by the committee and the committeeâs deliberations. Each report has been subjected to a rigorous and independent peer-review process and it represents the position of the National Academies on the statement of task. Proceedings published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine chronicle the presentations and discussions at a workshop, symposium, or other event convened by the National Academies. The statements and opinions contained in proceedings are those of the participants and are not endorsed by other participants, the planning committee, or the National Academies. For information about other products and activities of the National Academies, please visit www.nationalacademies.org/about/whatwedo.
COMMITTEE ON ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS MARCIA J. RIEKE, NAS,1 University of Arizona, Co-Chair STEVEN M. RITZ, University of California, Santa Cruz, Co-Chair JEREMIAH K. DARLING, University of Colorado, Boulder MEGAN DONAHUE, Michigan State University THOMAS GREENE, NASA Ames Research Center LEE W. HARTMANN, University of Michigan VASSILIKI KALOGERA, NAS, Northwestern University BRUCE MACINTOSH, Stanford University CHRISTOPHER F. MCKEE, NAS, University of California, Berkeley ANGELA V. OLINTO, University of Chicago MARK M. PHILLIPS, Carnegie Institution for Science JAMES M. STONE, Princeton University ALEXEY VIKHLININ, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics ERIC M. WILCOTS, University of Wisconsin A. THOMAS YOUNG, NAE,2 Lockheed Martin, retired Staff: DAVID LANG, Senior Program Officer, Board on Physics and Astronomy, Study Director; MIA BROWN, Research Associate, Space Studies Board; DIONNA WISE, Senior Program Coordinator, Space Studies Board; RICHARD ROWBERG, Interim Acting Director, Space Studies Board and Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board; JAMES C. LANCASTER, Director, Board on Physics and Astronomy SPACE STUDIES BOARD FIONA HARRISON, NAS, California Institute of Technology, Chair ROBERT D. BRAUN, NAE,3 University of Colorado, Boulder, Vice Chair DAVID N. SPERGEL, NAS, Princeton University and Center for Computational Astrophysics at the Simons Foundation, Vice Chair JAMES G. ANDERSON, NAS, Harvard University JEFF M. BINGHAM, Consultant JAY C. BUCKEY, Geisel School of Medicine at Dartmouth College MARY LYNNE DITTMAR, Dittmar Associates JOSEPH FULLER, JR., Futron Corporation THOMAS R. GAVIN, California Institute of Technology SARAH GIBSON, National Center for Atmospheric Research WESLEY T. HUNTRESS, Carnegie Institution of Washington ANTHONY C. JANETOS, Boston University CHRYSSA KOUVELIOTOU, NAS, George Washington University DENNIS P. LETTENMAIER, NAE, University of California, Los Angeles ROSALY M. LOPES, Jet Propulsion Laboratory DAVID J. MCCOMAS, Princeton University LARRY PAXTON, Johns Hopkins University, Applied Physics Laboratory SAUL PERLMUTTER, NAS, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory ELIOT QUATAERT, University of California, Berkeley BARBARA SHERWOOD LOLLAR, University of Toronto HARLAN E. SPENCE, University of New Hampshire MARK H. THIEMENS, NAS, University of California, San Diego MEENAKSHI WADHWA, Arizona State University 1 Member, National Academy of Sciences. 2 Member, National Academy of Engineering. 3 Member, National Academy of Engineering. v
BOARD ON PHYSICS AND ASTRONOMY BARBARA V. JACAK, NAS, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Chair ABRAHAM LOEB, Harvard University, Vice Chair LOUIS F. DIMAURO, The Ohio State University FRANCIS J. DISALVO, NAS, Cornell University TODD DITMIRE, University of Texas, Austin NATHANIEL J. FISCH, Princeton University DANIEL FISHER, NAS, Stanford University WENDY FREEDMAN, NAS, University of Chicago TIMOTHY M. HECKMAN, NAS, Johns Hopkins University WENDELL T. HILL III, University of Maryland ALAN J. HURD, Los Alamos National Laboratory BARBARA A. JONES, IBM Almaden Research Center ANDREW J. LANKFORD, University of California at Irvine NERGIS MAVALVALA, NAS, Massachusetts Institute of Technology LYMAN A. PAGE, JR., NAS, Princeton University STEVEN M. RITZ, University of California Santa Cruz ACKNOWLEDGMENT OF REVIEWERS This Consensus Study Report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published report as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We thank the following individuals for their review of this report: CHARLES ALCOCK, NAS, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, JON ARENBERG, Northrop Grumman Aerospace Systems, ROGER BLANDFORD, NAS, Stanford University, GLENN LIGHTSEY, Georgia Institute of Technology, AMY MLINAR, Planetary Science Institute, JOSEPH SILK, NAS, UniversitÃ© Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris, France, and GRANT STOKES, NAE, MIT Lincoln Laboratory. Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations of this report nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Charles F. Kennel, NAS, University of California, San Diego. He was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with the standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Academies. vi