Decarbonizing Transport for a Sustainable Future: Mitigating Impacts of the Changing Climate (2018)

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C o n f e r e n C e P r o C e e d i n g s 5 4 Decarbonizing Transport for a Sustainable Future Mitigating Impacts of the Changing Climate Summary of the Fifth EU-U.S. Transportation Research Symposium Katherine F. Turnbull Rapporteur May 17–18, 2017 National Academies of Sciences Building Washington, D.C. Organized by the European Commission Transportation Research Board Washington, D.C. 2017 www.TRB.org TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD

Transportation Research Board Conference Proceedings 54 ISSN 1073-1652 ISBN 978-0-309-46045-3 Subscriber Categories Administration and management; energy; environment; freight transportation; highways; law; passenger transportation; planning and forecasting; policy; research (about research); society Transportation Research Board publications are available by ordering individual publications directly from the TRB Business Office, through the Internet at www.TRB.org or national-academies.org/trb, or by annual subscription through organizational or individual affiliation with TRB. Affiliates and library subscribers are eligible for substantial discounts. For further information, contact the Transportation Research Board Business Office, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Washington, DC 20001 (telephone 202-334-3213; fax 202-334- 2519; or e-mail TRBsales@nas.edu). Printed in the United States of America. NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the project were chosen for their special competencies and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to the procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the National Academy of Medicine. This project was organized by the European Commission and the Transportation Research Board. Planning Committee for the Fifth EU-U.S. Transportation Research Symposium: Decarbonizing Transport for a Sustainable Future: Mitigating Impacts of the Changing Climate Steven S. Cliff, California Air Resources Board, Cochair Simon Edwards, Ricardo, Cochair Malin Anderson, City of Gothenburg Delia Dimitriu, Manchester Metropolitan University Daniel Kreeger, Association of Climate Change Officers Oliver Lah, Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment, and Energy Timothy Sexton, Minnesota Department of Transportation Ray F. Toll, Old Dominion University Liaisons, European Commission Alessandro Damiani Frank Smit Maria Cristina Marolda Transportation Research Board Staff William Anderson, Senior Program Officer Brittney Gick, Associate Program Officer TRB Publications Office Janet McNaughton, Senior Editor Mary McLaughlin, Proofreader Jennifer J. Weeks, Publishing Projects Manager Juanita L. Green, Production Manager Cover design by Beth Schlenoff, Beth Schlenoff Design Typesetting by Carol Siegel

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Contents List of Acronyms .....................................................................................................................................vii Preface .....................................................................................................................................................ix OPENING SESSION Welcome from the Transportation Research Board ..............................................................................1 Neil J. Pedersen Welcome from the European Commission ............................................................................................2 Robert Missen Opening Comments by the Symposium Cochairs ..................................................................................2 Kate White and Simon Edwards Keynote Address: Transport Emissions after the 21st Conference of the Parties ...................................2 Axel Friedrich Presentation of the Symposium White Paper—Decarbonizing Transport for a Sustainable Future: Mitigating Impacts of the Changing Climate ........................................................................................4 David L. Greene and Graham Parkhurst Setting the Scene: Why We Cannot Wait ..............................................................................................7 Seleta Reynolds and Helle Søholt PRESENTATION OF EXPLORATORY TOPICS AND RESEARCH NEEDS Exploratory Topic 1—Breaking Silos and Human Cocreation on Multiple Levels: The Key to Transforming the Current Sociotechnical Transport System Regime? ..............................12 Daniel Kreeger and Malin Andersson Exploratory Topic 2—The Influence of Policy Environment Factors on Climate Change Mitigation Strategies in the Transport Sector ......................................................................................14 Timothy Sexton and Oliver Lah Exploratory Topic 3—Megaregions: Policy, Research, and Practice ...................................................16 Ray Toll and Delia Dimitriu Exploratory Topic 4—Decarbonizing the Logistics and Long-Distance Transportation of Freight .....18 Kate White and Simon Edwards

CLOSING SESSION Concluding Keynote Presentation—Decarbonizing Transport: To Life in a Sustainable World—What Did We Learn, What Can We Do? ...........................................................24 José Viegas Closing Comments from the Transportation Research Board .............................................................26 Neil J. Pedersen Closing Comments from the European Commission ...........................................................................26 Robert Missen POTENTIAL PORTFOLIO FOR EU-U.S. RESEARCH ON DECARBONIZING TRANSPORT FOR A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE ................................................ 27 Katherine F. Turnbull APPENDIXES A. WHITE PAPER Decarbonizing Transport for a Sustainable Future: Mitigating Impacts of the Changing Climate ......30 David L. Green and Graham Parkhurst B. EXPLORATORY TOPIC 1 Breaking Silos and Human Cocreation on Multiple Levels: The Key to Transforming the Current Sociotechnical Transport System Regime? .......................................................................61 Malin B. Andersson and Daniel Kreeger C. EXPLORATORY TOPIC 2 Influence of Policy Environment Factors on Climate Change Mitigation Strategies in the Transport Sector .......................................................................................................................68 Oliver Lah and Timothy Sexton D. EXPLORATORY TOPIC 3 Megaregions: Policy, Research, Practice ..............................................................................................74 Delia Dimitriu and Ray F. Toll E. EXPLORATORY TOPIC 4 Decarbonizing the Logistics and Long-Distance Transportation of Freight .........................................84 Steven S. Cliff, Phillip T. Dube, and Simon Edwards F. PROGRAM ....................................................................................................................................... 93 G. SYMPOSIUM ATTENDEES ........................................................................................................... 96

v i i Acronyms BCA benefit–cost analysis BEV battery electric vehicle BRT bus rapid transit C Celsius CAFE Corporate Average Fuel Economy CAV connected autonomous vehicle CCCEF Center for Climate Change and Environmental Forecasting CO2 carbon dioxide DOT Department of Transportation EC European Commission EEA European Environment Agency EIA Energy Information Administration EU European Union F Fahrenheit FAA Federal Aviation Administration FDT flexible on-demand transport FFV flex-fuel vehicle FHWA Federal Highway Administration GHG greenhouse gas H2FCEV hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicle HEV hybrid electric vehicle ICEV internal combustion engine vehicle ICT information and communication technology IMO International Maritime Organization IPCC International Panel on Climate Change ITF International Transport Forum ITS intelligent transportation systems LDV light-duty vehicle MaaS Mobility as a Service MOU memorandum of understanding MPO metropolitan planning organization

v i i i D E C A R B O N I z I N G T R A N S P O R T F O R A S U S T A I N A B L E F U T U R E NAS National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine NO2 nitrogen dioxide NOx nitrogen oxides NRC National Research Council PHEV plug-in hybrid electric vehicle PM particulate matter PPP public–private partnership SLR sea level rise TEN-T Trans-European Transport Network TfGM Transport for Greater Manchester TfN Transport for the North TNC transportation network company TRB Transportation Research Board TTI Texas A&M Transportation Institute U.S. DOT U.S. Department of Transportation UN United Nations VMT vehicle miles traveled WTW well-to-wheels

i x Preface This document summarizes Decarbonizing Transport for a Sustainable Future: Mitigating Impacts of the Changing Climate, a symposium held May 17–18, 2017, at the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Building in Washington, D.C. Hosted by the European Commission and the Transportation Research Board (TRB) of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, it was the fifth annual symposium sponsored by the European Commission and the United States. The goals of these symposia are to promote common understanding, efficiencies, and trans-Atlantic coop- eration within the international transportation research community while accelerating transport-sector innova- tion in the European Union and the United States. The two-day invitation-only symposium brought together high-level experts to share their views on decarbonizing transport and mitigating the impacts of the changing climate. With the goal of fostering trans- Atlantic collaboration in research and deployment, sym- posium participants discussed policies, programs, and innovative approaches for decarbonizing the transport sector. A bilateral planning committee was assembled by TRB and appointed by the National Research Coun- cil (NRC) to organize and develop the symposium program. Steven Cliff of the California Air Resources Board and Simon Edwards of Ricardo served as cochairs of the planning committee. Committee mem- bers provided expertise in public road and transit systems, freight, aviation, land use and transport plan- ning, and climate science. The planning committee was responsible for organizing the symposium, identifying speakers, commissioning a white paper, and developing four exploratory topic papers to facilitate discussion at the symposium. The white paper is provided in Appen- dix A and the exploratory topic papers are presented in Appendixes B through E. New readers may find it advantageous to review the white paper and explor- atory topic papers first to more fully understand the discussion in the breakout groups. The exploratory topic papers addressed creating part- nerships and strategies with co-benefits, the influence of the policy environment on climate mitigation strategies, approaches in megaregions, and freight transport. The papers were developed and presented by planning com- mittee members to help frame discussions in the break- out groups, which focused on identifying research topics appropriate for EU-U.S. collaboration. The symposium’s interactive format enabled ongo- ing input from the assembled experts. The symposium began with a keynote presentation by Axel Friedrich of the International Council on Clean Transportation. The white paper prepared for the symposium was also pre- sented in the opening session by coauthors David Greene of the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, and Graham Parkhurst of the University of West England, Bristol. Seleta Reynolds of the City of Los Angeles Department of Transportation and Helle Søholt of Gehl discussed examples of projects and programs that make commu- nities more friendly for pedestrians and bicyclists while improving safety and reducing energy use. The breakout sessions followed a common format. First, members of the planning committee summarized

x D E C A R B O N I z I N G T R A N S P O R T F O R A S U S T A I N A B L E F U T U R E the key elements of the exploratory papers. Second, participants discussed challenges and opportunities and potential research needs on the topic in breakout groups. Third, planning committee members summarized the key discussion points in the closing general session. The symposium concluded with a keynote presentation by José Viegas of the International Transport Forum and final comments from the EU and TRB representatives. This report prepared by Katherine F. Turnbull of the Texas A&M Transportation Institute, the symposium rapporteur, is a compilation of the presentations and a factual summary of the ensuing discussions at the event. The planning committee was responsible solely for organizing the conference, identifying speakers, and developing breakout session topics. The views con- tained in the report are those of individual symposium participants and do not necessarily represent the views of all participants, the planning committee, TRB, the European Commission or NRC. This volume has been reviewed in draft form by indi- viduals chosen for their diverse perspectives and techni- cal expertise in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC Report Review Committee. The purposes of this independent review are to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in mak- ing the published summary as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets institutional standards for objectiv- ity, evidence, and responsiveness to the project charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain con- fidential to protect the integrity of the process. TRB thanks the following individuals for their review of this report: Victoria Arroyo, Georgetown University; Steven Cliff, California Air Resources Board; Gabriel Pacyniak, University of New Mexico; Karl Simon, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; and Marie Venner, Venner Consulting. Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they did not see the final draft of the symposium summary before its release. The review of this summary was overseen by Susan Hanson of Clark University (emerita). Appointed by the NRC, she was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this summary was performed in accordance with established procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this summary rests entirely with the authors and the institution. The confer- ence planning committee thanks Katherine F. Turnbull for her work in preparing this conference proceedings summary.