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A Roadmap to Reducing Child Poverty (2019)

Chapter: Front Matter

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. A Roadmap to Reducing Child Poverty. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25246.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. A Roadmap to Reducing Child Poverty. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25246.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. A Roadmap to Reducing Child Poverty. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25246.
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Below is the uncorrected machine-read text of this chapter, intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text of each book. Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.

Prepublication Copy Uncorrected Proofs A ROADMAP TO REDUCING CHILD POVERTY Committee on Building an Agenda to Reduce the Number of Children in Poverty by Half in 10 Years Greg Duncan and Suzanne Le Menestrel, Editors Board on Children, Youth, and Families and Committee on National Statistics Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education A Consensus Study Report of

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 This activity was supported by contracts and grants between the National Academy of Sciences and the Doris Duke Charitable Foundation, Inc. (2017032); the Foundation for Child Development (NAS- 03-2017); the Joyce Foundation (17-37856); the Russell Sage Foundation (83-18-04); the W. K. Kellogg Foundation (P0130499); the William T. Grant Foundation (187516); and the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHSP233201400020B, Order No. HHSP2337058). Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-XXXXX-X International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-XXXXX-X Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/25246 Additional copies of this publication are available for sale from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu/25246. Copyright 2019 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. A Roadmap to Reducing Child Poverty. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: https://doi.org/10.17226/25246. PREPUBLICATION COPY, UNCORRECTED PROOFS

The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, nongovernmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., is president. The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president. The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The National Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine. Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.nationalacademies.org.   PREPUBLICATION COPY, UNCORRECTED PROOFS

Consensus Study Reports published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine document the evidence-based consensus on the study’s statement of task by an authoring committee of experts. Reports typically include findings, conclusions, and recommendations based on information gathered by the committee and the committee’s deliberations. Each report has been subjected to a rigorous and independent peer-review process and it represents the position of the National Academies on the statement of task. Proceedings published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine chronicle the presentations and discussions at a workshop, symposium, or other event convened by the National Academies. The statements and opinions contained in proceedings are those of the participants and are not endorsed by other participants, the planning committee, or the National Academies. For information about other products and activities of the National Academies, please visit www.nationalacademies.org/about/whatwedo.   PREPUBLICATION COPY, UNCORRECTED PROOFS

COMMITTEE ON BUILDING AN AGENDA TO REDUCE THE NUMBER OF CHILDREN IN POVERTY BY HALF IN 10 YEARS GREG J. DUNCAN, (Chair), School of Education, University of California, Irvine J. LAWRENCE ABER, Steinhardt School of Culture, Education and Human Development, New York University DOLORES ACEVEDO-GARCIA, The Heller School for Social Policy and Management, Brandeis University JANET CURRIE, Department of Economics, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University BENARD P. DREYER, New York University School of Medicine IRWIN GARFINKEL, School of Social Work, Columbia University RON HASKINS, Brookings Institution HILARY HOYNES, Department of Economics and the Goldman School of Public Policy, University of California, Berkeley CHRISTINE JAMES-BROWN, Child Welfare League of America VONNIE C. MCLOYD, Department of Psychology, University of Michigan ROBERT MOFFITT, Department of Economics, Johns Hopkins University CYNTHIA OSBORNE, Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs, University of Texas at Austin ELDAR SHAFIR, Department of Psychology, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University TIMOTHY SMEEDING, Robert M. La Follette School of Public Affairs, University of Wisconsin-Madison DON WINSTEAD, JR., Don Winstead Consulting, LLC Study Staff SUZANNE LE MENESTREL, Study Director PAMELLA ATAYI, Program Coordinator SARAH BLANKENSHIP, Christine Mirzayan Science and Technology Policy Graduate Fellow (January 2017-April 2017) CONSTANCE F. CITRO, Senior Scholar REBEKAH HUTTON, Associate Program Officer (until March 2018) CHRIS MACKIE, Senior Program Officer (until April 2018) DARA SHEFSKA, Research Associate (from March 2018) ELIZABETH TOWNSEND, Associate Program Officer (from March 2018)   PREPUBLICATION COPY, UNCORRECTED PROOFS v

BOARD ON CHILDREN, YOUTH, AND FAMILIES ANGELA DIAZ, (Chair), Departments of Pediatrics and Preventive Medicine, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai HAROLYN BELCHER, Kennedy Krieger Institute and Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine W. THOMAS BOYCE, University of California, San Francisco, Division of Developmental Medicine DAVID V. B. BRITT, Sesame Workshop (Retired CEO) RICHARD F. CATALANO, University of Washington School of Social Work DIMITRI CHRISTAKIS, Seattle Children’s Research Institute, University of Washington JEFFREY W. HUTCHINSON, F. Edward Hébert School of Medicine, Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences JACQUELINE JONES, Foundation for Child Development JAMES M. PERRIN, Harvard Medical School and MassGeneral Hospital for Children MARTIN J. SEPÚLVEDA, Research Division, IBM Corporation (retired) MARTIN H. TEICHER, Harvard Medical School and McLean Hospital JONATHAN TODRES, Georgia State University College of Law NATACHA BLAIN, Director PREPUBLICATION COPY, UNCORRECTED PROOFS vi

COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL STATISTICS ROBERT M. GROVES, (Chair), Georgetown University FRANCINE BLAU, Cornell University MARY ELLEN BOCK, Purdue University ANNE C. CASE, Princeton University MICHAEL E. CHERNEW, Harvard University JANET CURRIE, Princeton University DONALD A. DILLMAN, Washington State University CONSTANTINE GATSONIS, Brown University JAMES S. HOUSE, University of Michigan THOMAS L. MESENBOURG, U.S. Census Bureau (retired) SARAH M. NUSSER, Iowa State University COLM A. O’MUIRCHEARTAIGH, The University of Chicago JEROME P. REITER, Duke University ROBERTO RIGOBON, Massachusetts Institute of Technology JUDITH A. SELTZER, University of California, Los Angeles EDWARD H. SHORTLIFFE, Columbia University and Arizona State University BRIAN HARRIS-KOJETIN, Director   PREPUBLICATION COPY, UNCORRECTED PROOFS vii

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The U. S. Congress asked the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (the National Academies) to provide a nonpartisan, evidence-based report that would provide its assessment of the most effective means for reducing child poverty by half in the next 10 years. The National Academies appointed the Committee on Building an Agenda to Reduce the Number of Children in Poverty by Half in 10 Years to address its charge. The committee thanks the following sponsors of this study for their support: The Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services; the Doris Duke Charitable Foundation; the Foundation for Child Development; the Joyce Foundation; the Russell Sage Foundation; the W. K. Kellogg Foundation; and the William T. Grant Foundation. This report would not have been possible without the contributions of many people. Special thanks go to the members of the committee who dedicated extensive time, expertise, and energy to the drafting of the report. The committee also thanks the members of the staff of the National Academies for their significant contributions to the report: Suzanne Le Menestrel, Connie Citro, Rebekah Hutton, Chris Mackie, Dara Shefska, and Elizabeth Townsend. We also thank Jennifer Duer, University of California, Irvine, for her invaluable assistance in developing graphics and tables for the report. Pamella Atayi provided key administrative and logistical support and made sure that committee meetings ran smoothly. We also thank Michelle Burbage for her research assistance. The committee is also grateful to Azzure Beale, Anthony Bryant, and Lisa Alston for their administrative and financial assistance on this project. From the Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education Office of Reports and Communication, Kirsten Sampson Snyder, Viola Horek, Patricia L. Morison, Douglas Sprunger, and Yvonne Wise shepherded the report through the review and production process and assisted with its communication and dissemination. The committee also thanks the National Academies Press staff, Clair Woolley and Holly Sten, for their assistance with the production of the final report; Daniel Bearss and Rebecca Morgan in the National Academies research library for their assistance with fact checking and literature searches; the report’s editor, Marc DeFrancis, for his skillful and thoughtful editing; and Jay Christian for his elegant graphic design work. Finally, throughout the project, Natacha Blain, director of the Board on Children, Youth, and Families, Mary Ellen O’Connell, and Monica Feit provided helpful oversight. We also thank Melissa Welch-Ross for her helpful comments. Many individuals volunteered significant time and effort to address and educate the committee during our public information sessions. Their willingness to share their perspectives, research, and personal experiences was essential to the committee’s work. We thank: MaryLee Allen, Children's Defense Fund; Douglas Besharov, University of Maryland; Gary Bonner, Center for Urban Families; Roy Brooks, Tarrant County, Texas; Miles Corak, Graduate Center of the City University of New York; Marla Dean, Bright Beginnings; Jesús Gerena, Family Independence Initiative; Olivia Golden, Center for Law and Social Policy; Richard Hendra, MDRC; Tara Lobin, Fairfax Public Schools; Nora Morales, Maryland Public Schools; Edgar Olsen, University of Virginia; Anita Sampson, Maryland Public Schools; Isabel Sawhill, Brookings Institution; Kelsey Schaberg, MDRC; Arloc Sherman, Center on Budget and Policy PREPUBLICATION COPY, UNCORRECTED PROOFS viii

Priorities; Satira Streeter, Ascensions Psychological and Community Services, Inc; Bruce Western, Harvard University; and W. Bradford Wilcox, University of Virginia. We also thank the researchers who conducted original analyses and prepared commissioned papers for the committee: Randall Akee, University of California, Los Angeles and the Brookings Institution; Rosemary Hyson, Dahlia Remler, and Sanders D. Korenman, City University of New York; Thierry Kruten and Teresa Munzi, Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg; Emilia Simeonova, Johns Hopkins University; and Christopher Wimer, Columbia University. The committee would also like to extend a special acknowledgement to the Transfer Income Model Version 3 project team at The Urban Institute for their expert analyses, patience, thoroughness, and attention to detail: Linda Giannarelli, Joyce Morton, Kevin Werner, and Laura Wheaton. The committee also thanks the following individuals for their contributions to this study and the final report: Brian Baird; David Britt; Dorothy Duncan; Camille Gamboa; David H. Greenberg; Jeff Hutchinson; Arthur Lupia; Nancy McArdle; Clemens Noelke; Sheri Roder; Adam Thomas; and James Ziliak. Many individuals also submitted memos for the committee’s consideration; a listing of these individuals can be found in Appendix C in this report. This Consensus Study Report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies in making each published report as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Eloise Anderson, retired, Department of Children and Families, State of Wisconsin; Lenette Azzi-Lessing, School of Social Work, Boston University; Robert Doar, Morgridge Fellow in Poverty Studies, American Enterprise Institute; Kenneth A. Dodge, Sanford School of Public Policy, Duke University; Kathryn J. Edin, Department of Sociology, Princeton University; Gary W. Evans, College of Human Ecology, Cornell University; Wade F. Horn, Health and Human Services Marketplace Leader, Deloitte Consulting, LLC; Sara Rosenbaum, Department of Health Policy and Management, Milken Institute School of Public Health, The George Washington University; H. Luke Schaefer, Poverty Solutions and Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy, University of Michigan; Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach, Institute for Policy Research, Northwestern University; Michael R. Strain, John G. Searle Scholar, American Enterprise Institute; Scott Winship, Manhattan Institute for Policy Research and The University of Chicago; and Barbara L. Wolfe, Institute for Research on Poverty, University of Wisconsin–Madison. Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations of this report nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this report was overseen by V. Joseph Hotz, Department of Economics, Duke University, and Joseph P. Newhouse, Harvard University. They were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with the standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Academies. One of the pleasures of serving on a National Academies committee such as ours is that it provides opportunities to strike up friendships with individuals with very different interests and viewpoints. It also allows us to share in the joys and sorrows of fellow committee members. We PREPUBLICATION COPY, UNCORRECTED PROOFS ix

dedicate this report to the memory of Joseph Smeeding, a bright young doctoral student at the University of Arizona and son of committee member Timothy Smeeding. He died on January 12, 2018, after a two-year battle with glioblastoma multiforme. Greg Duncan, Chair   PREPUBLICATION COPY, UNCORRECTED PROOFS x

CONTENTS Summary S-1 1 Introduction 1-1 The Committee’s Charge, 1- Temporal and Other Considerations Associated with the Statement of Task, 1- How the Committee Selected Programs to Review, 1- Considerations in Estimating Policy and Program Impacts, 1- Organization of the Report, 1- 2 A Demographic Portrait of Child Poverty in the United States 2-1 Measuring U.S. Child Poverty, 2-1 A Demographic Portrait of U.S. Child Poverty in 2015, 2- Historical Trends in Child Poverty, 1976-2015, 2- Child Poverty in the United States and Other English-Speaking Developed Countries, 2- 3 Consequences of Child Poverty 3-1 Why Childhood Poverty Can Matter for Child Outcomes, 3- Correlational Studies, 3- The Impact of Child Poverty, 3- Macroeconomic Costs of Child Poverty to Society, 3- 4 How the Labor Market, Family Structure, and Government Programs 4-1 Affect Child Poverty Forces that Shape Child Poverty, 4- The Changing Role of Government Transfers, 4- Child-Related Income Transfers and Tax Benefits, 4- Effects of Income Transfers and Tax Benefits on Child Poverty in 2015, 4- Effects of Government Benefits on Child Poverty in the United States and Other English- Speaking Countries, 4- 5 Ten Policy and Program Approaches to Reducing Child Poverty, 5-1 Modifications Examined for 10 Policy and Program Areas, 5- Impacts on Poverty, Cost, and Employment, 5- 6 Packages of Policies and Programs that Reduce Poverty and Deep Poverty Among Children 6-1 A Work-Based Poverty Reduction Package, 6- A Work-Based and Universal-Support Poverty Reduction Package, 6- A Means-Tested Supports and Work Poverty Reduction Package, 6- A Universal Supports and Work Poverty Reduction Package, 6- Simulating the Impacts of the Four Program Packages, 6- 7 Other Policy and Program Approaches to Child Poverty Reduction 7-1 Family Planning, 7- Family Composition, 7- Paid Family and Medical Leave, 7- Mandatory Employment Programs, 7- Block Grants, 7- The TANF Program, 7- Health, Health Insurance, and Measuring Poverty, 7- Policies Toward American Indian and Alaska Native Children, 7- PREPUBLICATION COPY, UNCORRECTED PROOFS xi

8 Contextual Factors that Promote or Impede Anti-Poverty Policies and Programs 8-1 Why Context Matters, 8- Six Major Contextual Factors, 8- Income Stability and Predictability, 8- Equitable and Ready Access to Programs, 8- Racial and Ethnic Discrimination, 8- Criminal Justice System Involvement, 8- Neighborhood Conditions, 8- Health and Disability, 8- 9 Recommendations for Research and Data Collection 9-1 Priority Areas for Research, 9- Improvements in Data Collection and Measurement, 9- Continued Monitoring and Program Evaluation, 9- Coordinating Research and Data Priorities Across Departments, 9- APPENDIXES Note: Papers commissioned by the committee are available on the National Academies Press website, http://www.nap.edu/25246. A Biosketches of Committee Members and Staff B Public Session Agendas C Authors of Memos Submitted to the Committee ON-LINE APPENDIXES (AVAILABLE AT WWW.NAP.EDU/25246) D Technical Appendixes to Select Chapters Appendixes to Chapter 2 2-1. A Brief History of Poverty Measurement in the United States 2-2. Types of Income-Based Poverty Measures and the Advantages of Using the Adjusted SPM for Policy Analysis 2-3. Consumption-Based Poverty Measures 2-4. How Equivalence Scales Are Used to Adjust Poverty Thresholds 2-5. Cost of Living Adjustments in Poverty Thresholds and Benefits 2-6. Differences Between the Resource Measures Used by the OPM and SPM Poverty Measures 2-7. Poverty Among American Indian and Alaska Native Children 2-8. The Changing Demography of Children, Including Children in Poverty 2-9. Distribution of Child Population Across Persistently High Poverty Counties 2-10. Anchored and Unanchored Methods of Calculating SPM Poverty Over Time 2-11. Poverty Measurement Across Countries: Cross-Country Poverty Lines and Child Poverty Rates Appendixes to Chapter 3 3-1. Associations Between Poverty and Child Outcomes PREPUBLICATION COPY, UNCORRECTED PROOFS xii

Appendixes to Chapter 4 4-1. Definitions Pertaining to Chapter 4 from the Organization for Economic Co- operation and Development (OECD) 4-2. Government Policies Affecting Child Poverty in Australia and Ireland Appendixes to Chapter 5 5-1. Adjusting Estimates of Poverty Reduction for Behavioral Effects 5-2. Modifications to the Earned Income Tax Credit 5-3. Modifications to Child Care Subsidies 5-4. Modifications to the Minimum Wage 5-5. Scaling Up WorkAdvance 5-6. Modifications to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) 5-7. Modifications to Housing Programs 5-8. Modifications to the Supplemental Security Income (SSI) Program 5-9. Introducing a Child Allowance 5-10. A Child Support Assurance Program 5-11. Changes in Immigrant Policies 5-12. Reducing Child Poverty through a Universal Basic Income 5-13. Construction of Summary Tables 5-1 and 5-2 E TRIM3 Summary Tables F Urban Institute TRIM3 Technical Specifications PREPUBLICATION COPY, UNCORRECTED PROOFS xiii

List of Tables, Figures, and Boxes TABLES Table 2-1. Key Differences in Poverty Measure Concepts Between the Official Poverty Measure (OPM) and the Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM) Table 5-1. Simulated Poverty Reduction of Various Programs and Policies Across Demographic Subgroups Table 5-2. Simulated Relative Performance of Program and Policy Options Across Committee Criteria Table 6-1. Components of the Four Packages Table 6-2. Simulated Poverty Reduction, Cost and Employment Changes Associated with Four Poverty Reduction Packages, Based on the 2015 Tax Law Table 6-3. Simulated Poverty Reduction, Cost and Employment Changes Associated with Four Poverty Reduction Packages, Based on the 2018 Tax Law Appendix D, Table 2-1. Dimensions of Three Income-Based Economic Poverty Measures: Official Poverty Measure (OPM), Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM), Adjusted SPM Appendix D, Table 2-2. SPM Equivalence Scales by Household Size, 2015 Appendix D, Table 2-3. Implied Equivalence Scales for EITC, CTC, and SNAP Programs by Household Size Appendix D, Table 2-4. Difference Between OPM Resources and SPM Resources Appendix D, Table 2-5. Child Poverty Rates by Year and Population Appendix D, Table 2-6. Percent of Children in Poverty based on TRIM3—Adjusted SPM for 2015 by Level of Poverty Appendix D, Table 2-7. Distribution of Children Under 18 Across Persistently Poor and Nonpoor Counties, by County Metro Area Status Appendix D, Table 2-8. Distribution of Children Under 18 Across Point-in-Time Poor and Nonpoor Counties, by County Metro Area Status Appendix D, Table 2-9. Distribution of Children Under 18 Across Persistently Poor and Nonpoor Counties, by Race/Ethnicity Appendix D, Table 2-10. Distribution of Children Under 18 Across Point-in-Time Poor and Nonpoor Counties, by Race/Ethnicity Appendix D, Table 2-11. Child Population Living in Persistently Poor and Currently Poor Counties, by Region Appendix D, Table 2-12. Income Comparisons Across Anglophone OECD Countries Using Different Measures of Real Income, Indexed to USA = 100 Appendix D, Table 3-1. Adverse Childhood Experiences [Literature Summary] Appendix D, Table 3-2. Brain Development [Literature Summary] Appendix D, Table 3-3. Educational Attainment [Literature Summary] Appendix D, Table 3-4. Fetal Health and Health at Birth [Literature Summary] Appendix D, Table 3-5. Material Hardship [Literature Summary] Appendix D, Table 3-6. Mental Health [Literature Summary] Appendix D, Table 3-7. Physical Health [Literature Summary] Appendix D, Table 3-8. Risky Behaviors, Crime, and Delinquency [Literature Summary] PREPUBLICATION COPY, UNCORRECTED PROOFS xiv

Appendix D, Table 4-1. Federal Expenditures in the United States on Children by Program, Selected Years, 1960–2017 (in billions of 2017 dollars) Appendix D, Table 4-2. Estimated Change in Child Poverty If Current Programs Were Eliminated Appendix D, Table 5-1. Behavioral Assumptions for the Two EITC Policy Options Appendix D, Table 5-2. Recipients Under Age 18, by Diagnostic Group and Age, December 2016 Appendix D, Table 5-3. Simulated Reductions in Poverty and Deep Poverty for children for Two UBI Policies Appendix D, Table 5-4. Baseline and Post-program Poverty Rates by Demographic Group Appendix D, Table 5-5. Relative Poverty Reductions by Demographic Subgroup Appendix D, Table 5-6. Relative Changes in Poverty Rates by Demographic Group Appendix D, Table 5-7. Values for Table 5-2 Appendix D, Table 5-8. Cutpoints for Table 5-2 FIGURES Figure 2-1. Rates of Poverty, Deep Poverty, and Near Poverty for Children Using Three Alternative Poverty Measures, 2015 Figure 2-2. TRIM3-SPM Rates of Poverty, Deep Poverty, and Near Poverty for Children by Race/Ethnicity in 2015 Figure 2-3. TRIM3-SPM Estimates of the Share of Children by Race/Ethnic Category Comprising Poor, Deeply Poor, and Near-Poor Children, 2015 Figure 2-4. TRIM3-SPM Rates of Poverty, Deep Poverty, and Near-Poverty for Child by Education Level of Parents in 2015 Figure 2-5. TRIM3-SPM Rates of Poverty, Deep Poverty, and Near Poverty for Children, by Family Composition in 2015 Figure 2-6. TRIM3-SPM Rates of Poverty, Deep Poverty, and Near-Poverty for Children, by Number of Working Adults in Household, 2015. Figure 2-7. TRIM3-SPM Rates of Poverty, Deep Poverty, and Near-Poverty for Children, by Citizenship Status of Child and Adults in Household, 2015 Figure 2-8. TRIM3-SPM Rates of Poverty, Deep Poverty, and Near-Poverty for Children, by Age of Parent, 2015 Figure 2-9. Counties with OPM Point-in-Time Child Poverty Rates 20 Percent or Higher, 2015 Figure 2-10. Counties with OPM Child Poverty Rates 20% or Higher in 1980, 1990, 2000 and 2008-2012 Figure 2-11. Official (OPM) and Supplemental (SPM) Child Poverty Rates, 1967-2016 Figure 2-12. Trends in SPM Rates of Poverty, Deep Poverty, and Near-Poverty for Children, 1967–2016 Figure 2-13. Child Poverty in the U.S. and Four Other Anglophone Countries, Using Three Alternative Measures, Various (Recent) Years Figure 2-14. Deep and Near Child Poverty in the U.S. and Four Other Anglophone Countries, LIS-SPM-40, Various (Recent) Years Figure 3-1. Hypothesized Pathways by Which Child Poverty Affects Child Outcomes PREPUBLICATION COPY, UNCORRECTED PROOFS xv

Figure 3-2. Adult Outcomes for Children With Lower and Higher Levels of Early Childhood Income Figure 3-3. Total Gray Matter Volume in Early Life, by Socioeconomic Group Figure 3-4. Impact of Food Stamp Exposure on Metabolic Syndrome Index at Age 25 and Above Figure 4-1. Child Poverty Rates, Before and After Taxes and Transfers, 1967–2016 Figure 4-2. Share of Children With Married Parents, 1975–2015 Figure 4-3. Share of Children With a Working Mother, 1975–2015 Figure 4-4. Changes in Median Weekly Earnings of Full-Time, Full-Year Female Workers, 1963–2012 Figure 4-5. Total Federal Expenditures on Children, 1960–2017 Figure 4-6. Rates of Deep Child Poverty (< 50% SPM) Before and After Taxes and Transfers, 1967–2016 Figure 4-7. Rates of Child Near-Poverty (< 150% SPM) Before and After Taxes and Transfers, 1967–2016 Figure 4-8. Value of Federal Spending Outlays and Tax Reductions With the Highest Expenditures on Children, 2017 (in billions of dollars) Figure 4-9. “What-if” Child Poverty Rates With the Elimination of Selected Federal Programs Figure 4-10. “What-if” Child Deep-Poverty Rates With the Elimination of Selected Federal Programs Figure 4-11. “What-if” Child Near-Poverty Rates With the Elimination of Selected Federal Programs Figure 4-12. Public Spending on Families and Children as a Percent of GDP, United States, OECD Average, and Four Peer Anglophone countries, 1990–2015 Figure 4-13. Alternative Rates of Child Poverty, Depending on the Inclusion of Social Insurance and Means-Tested Transfers, United States and Four Peer Anglophone Countries, 2013/14 Figure 4-14. Alternative Rates of Child Deep Poverty Depending on Inclusion of Social Insurance and Means-Test Transfers, United States and Four Peer Anglophone Countries, 2013/14 Figure 4-15. Alternative Rates of Child Near-Poverty Depending on Inclusion of Social Insurance and Means-Test Transfers, United States and Four Peer Anglophone Countries, 2013/14 Figure 5-1. Simulated Child Poverty Rates Using 100% TRIM3 SPM under Proposed Programs Figure 5-2. Simulated Child Poverty Rates Using 50% TRIM3 SPM under Proposed Programs Figure 5-3. Simulated Child Poverty Rates Using 150% TRIM3 SPM under Proposed Programs Figure 5-4. Simulated Number of Children Lifted Out of Poverty, by Program Cost Figure 5-5. Simulated Number of Children Lifted Out of Poverty, by Change in Earnings Figure 5-6. Simulated Number of Children Lifted Out of Poverty, by Change in Jobs Figure 6-1. Simulated Reductions in Child Poverty Rates Using 100% TRIM3 SPM for the Four Program Packages Figure 6-2. Simulated Reductions in Child Poverty Rates Using 50% TRIM3 SPM for the Four Program Packages Figure 6-3. Simulated Reductions in Child Poverty Rates Using 150% TRIM3 SPM for the Four Program Packages Figure 6-4. Simulated Number of Children Lifted Out of Poverty by Program Cost for the Four Packages, Based on the 2015 Tax Law PREPUBLICATION COPY, UNCORRECTED PROOFS xvi

Figure 6-5. Simulated Number of Children Lifted Out of Deep Poverty (<50% SPM Poverty) by Program Cost for the Four Packages, Based on the 2015 Tax Law Figure 6-6. Simulated Number of Children Lifted Out of Poverty by Net Change in Jobs for the Four Packages, Based on the 2015 Tax Law Appendix D, Figure 2-1. Historical And Projected Racial/Ethnic Composition Of The U.S. Child Population Appendix D, Figure 2-2. Historical and Current Racial/Ethnic Composition of Children in Poverty, OPM-based Poverty Appendix D, Figure 2-3. Historical and Current Racial/Ethnic Composition of Children in Poverty, SPM-based Poverty Appendix D, Figure 2-4. Trends in SPM Child Poverty Rates by Race/Ethnicity Appendix D, Figure 2-5. Trends in OPM Child Poverty Rates by Race/Ethnicity Appendix D, Figure 2-6. Trends in SPM Child Poverty Rates by Family Structure Appendix D, Figure 2-7. Percentage of Children Living in Currently Poor and Persistently Poor Counties by Race/Ethnicity Appendix D, Figure 2-8. Percent of Children Under 18 in Persistently Poor Counties, by Metro Status of Counties and Race/Ethnicity. Appendix D, Figure 2-9. Percent of Children Under 18 in Persistently Poor Counties by Race/Ethnicity: Metro-Status Counties and Non-metro Status Counties Appendix D, Figure 2-10. Race/Ethnic Distribution (Percent) of Children Under 18 in Currently Poor Counties, by Metro Status of Counties Appendix D, Figure 2-11. Percentage of Children Under 18 Living in Persistently Poor and Currently Poor Counties in Each Region Appendix D, Figure 2-12 Children Under 18 in Persistently Poor and Non-Poor Counties (Percent), by State Appendix D, Figure 2-13. Number of Children Under 18 in Persistently Poor Counties (Millions), by State and Race/Ethnicity Appendix D, Figure 2-14. Number of Children Under 18 in Currently Poor Counties (Millions), by State and Race/Ethnicity Appendix Figure 2-15. Anchored and Historical SPM Child Poverty rates, 1967–2012 Appendix D, Figure 2-16. Child Poverty in the U.S. and other Anglophone Countries Appendix D, Figure 2-17. Comparing the Distributions of Real PPP Adjusted Income per Equivalent Adult and Two U.S. Absolute Poverty Lines in the U.S. and the UK Appendix D, Figure 2-18. Child Poverty Rates by Level of Poverty in the U.S. and Other Anglophone Countries Appendix D, Figure 2-19. Real Child Poverty (LIS SPM PPP) in the U.S. and other Anglophone Countries for Families with Single Parents, Full-time Workers, and Immigrant Families Appendix D, Figure 3-1. Percent of Children (0-17 Years) With Two or More Adverse Childhood Experiences, By Poverty Status, 2011-2012 Appendix D, Figure 3-2. Number of Material Hardships by Family Federal Poverty Level Appendix D, Figure 4-1. Trend in Male Labor Force Participation Rate, 1960–2016 Appendix D, Figure 4-2. Trends in Educational Attainment of Women by Completed Schooling, 1962–2017 (selected years) Appendix D, Figure 4-3. Children Ever Born per 1,000 Women Aged 40-44, by Marital Status, 1976–2016 Appendix D, Figure 4-4. Explaining Changes in Child Poverty Over the Past Four Decades PREPUBLICATION COPY, UNCORRECTED PROOFS xvii

Appendix D, Figure 4-5. Changes in Real Median Weekly Earnings of Full-Time, Full-Year Male Workers, 1963–2012 Appendix D, Figure 4-6. White Non-Hispanic Child Poverty Trends, 1967–2016 Appendix D, Figure 4-7. Black Non-Hispanic Child Poverty Trends, 1967–2016 Appendix D, Figure 4-8. Hispanic Child Poverty Trends, 1970–2016 Appendix D, Figure 4-9. Single-Parent Child Poverty Trends, 1967–2016 Appendix D, Figure 4-10. Cohabiting-Parent Child Poverty Trends, 1967–2016 Appendix D, Figure 4-11. Married-Parent Child Poverty Trends, 1967–2016 Appendix D, Figure 4-12. Child Poverty Rates Using <100 Percent TRIM3 SPM If SNAP Program Benefits Were Eliminated, by Demographic Focal Group BOXES Box 1-1. Statement of Task Box 2-1. How Much Child Poverty Is There? Box 4-1. The Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC): Reducing Noncompliance and Overpayments Box 4-2. The Canada Child Benefit: A Cash Benefit to Families with Children Box 4-3. The United Kingdom’s War on Poverty Box 5-1. What Are Behavioral Effects? Box 5-2 Summary of Simulated Programs and Policies Appendix D, Box 2-1. Poverty Measurement: Key Definitions Appendix D, Box 2-2. Meyer-Sullivan (M-S) Consumption-Based Poverty Measure PREPUBLICATION COPY, UNCORRECTED PROOFS xviii

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The strengths and abilities children develop from infancy through adolescence are crucial for their physical, emotional, and cognitive growth, which in turn help them to achieve success in school and to become responsible, economically self-sufficient, and healthy adults. Capable, responsible, and healthy adults are clearly the foundation of a well-functioning and prosperous society, yet America's future is not as secure as it could be because millions of American children live in families with incomes below the poverty line. A wealth of evidence suggests that a lack of adequate economic resources for families with children compromises these children’s ability to grow and achieve adult success, hurting them and the broader society.

A Roadmap to Reducing Child Poverty reviews the research on linkages between child poverty and child well-being, and analyzes the poverty-reducing effects of major assistance programs directed at children and families. This report also provides policy and program recommendations for reducing the number of children living in poverty in the United States by half within 10 years.

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