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Negative Emissions Technologies and Reliable Sequestration A Research Agenda Committee on Developing a Research Agenda for Carbon Dioxide Removal and Reliable Sequestration Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate Board on Energy and Environmental Systems Board on Agriculture and Natural Resources Board on Earth Sciences and Resources Board on Chemical Sciences and Technology Ocean Studies Board Division on Earth and Life Studies A Consensus Study Report of
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS â¢ 500 Fifth Street, NW â¢ Washington, DC 20001 This study was supported by the Department of Energy under contract number DE- EP0000026/DE-DT0012364, the Environmental Protection Agency under contract number EP- C-14-005 BASE, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration under contract number NA17NOS4600002, the United States Geological Survey under contract number G17AC00434, the V. Kann Rasmussen Foundation, the Linden Trust for Conservation, and Incite Labs, with support from the National Academy of Sciencesâ Arthur L. Day Fund. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13:â 978-0-309-48452-7 International Standard Book Number-10:â 0-309-48452-9 Library of Congress Control Number:â 2018965363 Digital Object Identifier:â https://doi.org/10.17226/25259 Additional copies of this publication are available for sale from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http:// www.nap.edu. Copyright 2019 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Negative Emissions Technologies and Reliable Sequestration: A Research Agenda. Washington, DC: TheÂ Na- tional Academies Press. doi: https://doi.org/10.17226/25259.
The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, nongovernmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the char- ter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., is president. The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president. The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, En- gineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The National Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine. Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.nationalacademies.org.
Consensus Study Reports published by the National Academies of Sciences, En- gineering, and Medicine document the evidence-based consensus on the studyâs statement of task by an authoring committee of experts. Reports typically include findings, conclusions, and recommendations based on information gathered by the committee and the committeeâs deliberations. Each report has been sub- jected to a rigorous and independent peer-review process and it represents the position of the National Academies on the statement of task. Proceedings published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine chronicle the presentations and discussions at a workshop, symposium, or other event convened by the National Academies. The statements and opinions contained in proceedings are those of the participants and are not endorsed by other participants, the planning committee, or the National Academies. For information about other products and activities of the National Academies, please visit www.nationalacademies.org/about/whatwedo.
COMMITTEE ON DEVELOPING A RESEARCH AGENDA FOR CARBON DIOXIDE REMOVAL AND RELIABLE SEQUESTRATION STEPHEN PACALA (Chair), Princeton University, NJ MAHDI AL-KAISI, Iowa State University, Ames MARK BARTEAU, Texas A & M University, College Station ERICA BELMONT, University of Wyoming, Laramie SALLY BENSON, Stanford University, CA RICHARD BIRDSEY, Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, MA DANE BOYSEN, Modular Chemical, Inc., Berkeley, CA RILEY DUREN, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA CHARLES HOPKINSON, University of Georgia, Athens CHRISTOPHER JONES, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta PETER KELEMEN, Columbia University, Palisades, NY ANNIE LEVASSEUR, Ãcole de Technologie SupÃ©rieure, QuÃ©bec, Canada KEITH PAUSTIAN, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins JIANWU TANG, Marine Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole, MA TIFFANY TROXLER, Florida International University, Miami MICHAEL WARA, Stanford Law School, CA JENNIFER WILCOX, Worcester Polytechnic Institute, MA National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff KATIE THOMAS, Senior Program Officer, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate JOHN HOLMES, Director and Scholar, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems CAMILLA ABLES, Senior Program Officer, Board on Agriculture and Natural Resources ANNE LINN, Scholar, Board on Earth Sciences and Resources ANNA SBEREGAEVA, Associate Program Officer, Board on Chemical Sciences andÂ Technology EMILY TWIGG, Program Officer, Ocean Studies Board YASMIN ROMITTI, Research Associate, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate/Board on Earth Sciences and Resources MICHAEL HUDSON, Senior Program Assistant, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate NOTE: See Appendix B, Disclosure of Conflict of Interest. v
BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE A. R. RAVISHANKARA (Chair), Colorado State University, Fort Collins SHUYI S. CHEN (Vice Chair), University of Washington, Seattle CECILIA BITZ, University of Washington, Seattle MARK A. CANE, Columbia University, Palisades, NY HEIDI CULLEN, Climate Central, Princeton, NJ ROBERT DUNBAR, Stanford University, CA PAMELA EMCH, Northrop Grumman Aerospace Systems, Redondo Beach, CA ARLENE FIORE, Columbia University, Palisades, NY PETER FRUMHOFF, Union of Concerned Scientists, Cambridge, MA WILLIAM B. GAIL, Global Weather Corporation, Boulder, CO MARY GLACKIN, The Weather Company, Washington, DC TERRI S. HOGUE, Colorado School of Mines, Golden EVERETTE JOSEPH, SUNY University at Albany, NY RONALD âNICKâ KEENER, JR., Duke Energy Corporation, Charlotte, NC ROBERT KOPP, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ L. RUBY LEUNG, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA JONATHAN MARTIN, University of WisconsinâMadison JONATHAN OVERPECK, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor ALLISON STEINER, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor DAVID W. TITLEY, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park DUANE WALISER, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena Ocean Studies Board Liaison DAVID HALPERN, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff AMANDA STAUDT, Director DAVID ALLEN, Senior Program Officer LAURIE GELLER, Senior Program Officer vi
KATHERINE THOMAS, Senior Program Officer LAUREN EVERETT, Program Officer APRIL MELVIN, Program Officer AMANDA PURCELL, Program Officer YASMIN ROMITTI, Research Associate RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator SHELLY FREELAND, Financial Associate ROB GREENWAY, Program Associate MICHAEL HUDSON, Senior Program Assistant ERIN MARKOVICH, Senior Program Assistant/Research Assistant vii
Acknowledgments This Consensus Study Report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Acad- emies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published report as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Ken Caldeira, Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford, CA Michael Celia, Princeton University, NJ Steve Crooks, Silvestrum Climate Associates, San Francisco, CA Julio Friedman, Carbon Wrangler LLC, New York, NY Greeshma Gadikota, University of WisconsinâMadison Chris Greig, University of Queensland, Australia Geoffrey Holmes, Carbon Engineering, Squamish, BC, Canada Tara Hudiburg, University of Idaho, Moscow Mark Jones, Dow Chemical Company, Saginaw, MI Jasmin Kemper, IEA Greenhouse Gas R&D Programme, Cheltenham, UK Jan Minx, Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, Berlin, Germany Simon Nicholson, American University, Washington, DC Phil Renforth, Cardiff University, UK Herbert (Todd) Schaef, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA Pete Smith, University of Aberdeen, Scotland, UK Chris Somerville, University of California, Berkeley Ellen Williams, University of Maryland, College Park Stephen Wofsy, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations of ix
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS this report nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Warren M. Washington, National Center for Atmospheric Research Climate and Global Dynamics Division, and Antonio J. Busalacchi, University Corpo- ration for Atmospheric Research. They were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with the stan- dards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully consid- ered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the authoring Committee and the National Academies. x
Preface Humans started adding fossil CO2 to the atmosphere about 300 years ago and ac- celerated land use emissions by expanding croplands and pastures. The unintended consequence of these activities is a 120 ppm increase in atmospheric concentration of CO2, which is now changing our climate. In response, international action is being taken to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions and limit global warming below 2Â°C. Most climate mitigation technologies are intended to decrease the rate at which we take additional carbon from fossil fuel reservoirs and ecosystems and add it to the at- mosphere as CO2. These include renewable electricity, increased energy efficiency, and carbon capture and storage of emissions from fossil power plants. This report focuses on the reverse: technologies that take CO2 out of the atmosphere and put it back into geologic reservoirs and terrestrial ecosystems. These negative emissions technologies, or NETs, have received much less attention by researchers than traditional mitigation technologies. The Committee on Developing a Research Agenda for Carbon Dioxide Removal and Reliable Sequestration was created to recommend a detailed research and develop- ment plan for NETs that: (1) use biological processes to increase carbon stocks in soils, forests, and wetlands, (2) produce energy from biomass, while capturing and stor- ing the resulting CO2 emissions, (3) use chemical processes to capture CO2 directly from the air and then sequester it in geologic reservoirs, and (4) enhance geologic processes that capture CO2 from the atmosphere and permanently bind it with rocks. These NETs are at vastly different stages of readiness. Some are close to being ready for large-scale deployment, while others require basic scientific research. The commit- tee met six times from May 2017 to February 2018 and, associated with four of these meetings, held open public webinars and workshops that gathered extensive input from scientists across academia, federal and state agencies, industry, and nongov- ernmental organizations. This input is summarized in five separate publicly available workshop proceedings that document the committeeâs information gathering activi- ties and to help inform the public about NETs. On a final, more personal note, I would like to thank the committee members, who gave so freely of their time and talent, and who were models of interdisciplinary listening and respect. Thanks to the staff of the National Academies of Sciences, xi
P R E FA C E Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM), who organized us, improved our writing, and helped us crystalize our thoughts. They worked tirelessly through our workshops and closed sessions, innumerable calls, and many drafts. And thanks to those who presented their research to the committee; your selfless service enriched this report. Finally, thanks to the reviewers who helped to sharpen and focus the report. Stephen Pacala, Chair Committee on Developing a Research Agenda for Carbon Dioxide Removal and Reliable Sequestration xii
Contents Summary 1 1 Introduction 23 2 Coastal Blue Carbon 45 3 Terrestrial Carbon Removal and Sequestration 87 4 Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Sequestration 137 5 Direct Air Capture 189 6 Carbon Mineralization of CO2 247 7 Sequestration of Supercritical CO2 in Deep Sedimentary Geological Formations 319 8 Synthesis 351 Glossary 403 Acronyms and Abbreviations 409 References 413 Appendix A Committee Bios 457 Appendix B Disclosure of Conflict of Interest 465 Appendix C Coastal Blue Carbon: Macroalgae 467 Appendix D CO2 Flux Calculation 469 Appendix E Carbon Mineralization 479 Appendix F Geologic Storage 487 xiii