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Prepublication copy, uncorrected proofs. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY When scientists cannot confirm the results from a published study, to some it is an indication of a problem, and to others, it is a natural part of the scientific process that can lead to new discoveries. As directed by Congress, the National Science Foundation (NSF) tasked this committee to define what it means to reproduce or replicate a study, to explore issues related to reproducibility and replicability across science and engineering, and to assess any impact of these issues on the publicâs trust in science. Various scientific disciplines define and use the terms âreproducibilityâ and âreplicabilityâ in different and sometimes contradictory ways. After considering the state of current usage, the committee adopted definitions that are intended to apply across all fields of science and help untangle the complex issues associated with reproducibility and replicability. Thinking about these topics across fields of science is uneven and evolving rapidly, and the reportâs proposed steps for improvement are intended to serve as a roadmap for the continuing journey toward scientific progress. We define reproducibility to mean computational reproducibilityâobtaining consistent computational results using the same input data, computational steps, methods, and code, and conditions of analysis; and replicability to mean obtaining consistent results across studies aimed at answering the same scientific question, each of which has obtained its own data. In short, reproducibility involves the original data and code; replicability involves new data collection and similar methods used by previous studies. A third concept, generalizability, refers to the extent that results of a study apply in other contexts or populations that differ from the original one.1 A single scientific study may entail one or more of these concepts. Our definition of reproducibility focuses on computation because of its large and increasing role in scientific research. Science is now conducted using computers and shared databases in ways that were unthinkable even at the turn of the 21st century. Fields of science focused solely on computation have emerged or expanded. However, the training of scientists in best computational research practices has not kept pace, which likely contributes to a surprisingly low rate of computational reproducibility across studies. Reproducibility is strongly associated with transparency; a studyâs data and code have to be available in order for others to reproduce and confirm results. Proprietary and non-public data and code add challenges to meeting transparency goals. In addition, many decisions related to data selection or parameter setting for code are made throughout a study and can affect the results. Although newly developed tools can be used to capture these decisions and include them as part of the digital record, these tools are not used by the majority of scientists. Archives to store digital artifacts linked to published results are inconsistently maintained across journals, academic and federal institutions, and disciplines, making it difficult for scientists to identify archives that can curate, store, and make available their digital artifacts for other researchers. To help remedy these problems, the NSF should, in harmony with other funders, endorse or create code and data repositories for long-term preservation of digital artifacts. In line with its expressed goal of âharnessing the data revolution,â NSF should consider funding tools, training, and activities to promote computational reproducibility. Journal editors should consider ways to 1 The definition of generalizability used by the NSF (Bollen,et al, 2015). 1
Prepublication copy, uncorrected proofs. ensure reproducibility for publications that make claims based on computations, to the extent ethically and legally possible. While one expects in many cases near bitwise agreement in reproducibility, the replicability of study results is more nuanced. Non-replicability occurs for a number of reasons that do not necessarily reflect that something is wrong. Some occurrences of non-replicability may be helpful to scienceâdiscovering previously unknown effects or sources of variabilityâwhile others, ranging from simple mistakes to methodological errors to bias and fraud, are not helpful. It is easy to say that potentially helpful sources should be capitalized on, while unhelpful sources must be minimized. But when a result is not replicated, further investigation is required to determine whether the sources of that non-replicability are of the helpful or unhelpful variety or some of both. This requires time and resources and is often not a trivial undertaking. A variety of standards are used in assessing replicability, and the choice of standards can affect the assessment outcome. We identified a set of assessment criteria that apply across sciences highlighting the need to adequately report uncertainties in results. Importantly, the assessment of replicability may not result in a binary pass/fail answer; rather, the answer may best be expressed as the degree to which one result replicates another. One type of scientific research tool, statistical inference, has had an outsized role in replicability discussions due to the frequent misuse of statistics such as the p-value and threshold for determining âstatistical significance.â Inappropriate reliance on statistical significance can lead to biases in research reporting and publication; although publication and research bias are not restricted to studies involving statistical inference. A variety of ongoing efforts is aimed at minimizing these biases and other unhelpful sources of non-replicability. Researchers should take care to estimate and explain the uncertainty inherent in their results, to make proper use of statistical methods, and to describe their methods and data in a clear, accurate, and complete way. Academic institutions, journals, scientific and professional associations, conference organizers and funders can take a range of steps to improve replicability of research. We propose a set of criteria to help determine when testing replicability may be warranted. It is important for everyone involved in science to endeavor to maintain public trust in science based on a proper understanding of the contributions and limitations of scientific results. A predominant focus on the replicability of individual studies is an inefficient way to assure the reliability of scientific knowledge. Rather, reviews of cumulative evidence on a subject, to assess both the overall effect size and generalizability, is often a more useful way to gain confidence in the state of scientific knowledge. 2