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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Making Climate Assessments Work: Learning from California and Other Subnational Climate Assessments: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25324.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Making Climate Assessments Work: Learning from California and Other Subnational Climate Assessments: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25324.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Making Climate Assessments Work: Learning from California and Other Subnational Climate Assessments: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25324.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Making Climate Assessments Work: Learning from California and Other Subnational Climate Assessments: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25324.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Making Climate Assessments Work: Learning from California and Other Subnational Climate Assessments: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25324.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Making Climate Assessments Work: Learning from California and Other Subnational Climate Assessments: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25324.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Making Climate Assessments Work: Learning from California and Other Subnational Climate Assessments: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25324.
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Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Making Climate Assessments Work: Learning from California and Other Subnational Climate Assessments: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25324.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Making Climate Assessments Work: Learning from California and Other Subnational Climate Assessments: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25324.
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Page R9
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Making Climate Assessments Work: Learning from California and Other Subnational Climate Assessments: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25324.
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Below is the uncorrected machine-read text of this chapter, intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text of each book. Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.

Making Climate Assessments Work Learning from California and Other Subnational Climate Assessments PROCEEDINGS OF A WORKSHOP Ben A. Wender (Day 1), K. John Holmes (Day 2), and Elizabeth Zeitler (Day 2), Rapporteurs Planning Committee on Making Climate Assessments Work Board of Energy and Environmental Systems Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS  500 Fifth Street, NW  Washington, DC 20001 This activity was supported by contracts with the California Energy Commission and the Electric Power Research Institute. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13:  978-0-309-48715-3 International Standard Book Number-10:  0-309-48715-3 Digital Object Identifier:  https://doi.org/10.17226/25324 Additional copies of this publication are available for sale from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2019 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Making Climate Assessments Work: Learning from California and Other Subnational Climate Assessments—Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: https://doi.org10.18226/25324.

The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, nongovernmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for out- standing contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to ­ngineering. e Dr. C.D. Mote, Jr., is president. The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contribu- tions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president. The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The National Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine. Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.nationalacademies.org.

Consensus Study Reports published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine document the evidence-based consensus on the study’s statement of task by an authoring committee of experts. Reports typically include findings, conclusions, and recommendations based on information gathered by the committee and the committee’s deliberations. Each report has been subjected to a rigorous and independent peer-review process and it represents the position of the National Academies on the statement of task. Proceedings published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine chronicle the presentations and discussions at a workshop, symposium, or other event convened by the National Academies. The statements and opinions contained in proceed- ings are those of the participants and are not endorsed by other participants, the planning committee, or the National Academies. For information about other products and activities of the National Academies, please visit www.nationalacademies.org/about/whatwedo.

PLANNING COMMITTEE ON MAKING CLIMATE ASSESSMENTS WORK: LEARNING FROM CALIFORNIA AND OTHER SUBNATIONAL CLIMATE ASSESSMENTS PAUL A. DECOTIS, West Monroe Partners, LLC, Chair KIT BATTEN,1 Pacific Gas and Electric W. MICHAEL HANEMANN, NAS,2 Arizona State University JENNIFER JURADO, Broward County, Florida JOHN C.WALL, NAE,3 Cummins, Inc. (retired) CATHY WHITLOCK, NAS, Montana State University Staff K. JOHN HOLMES, Board Director/Scholar, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems DAVID ALLEN, Senior Program Officer, Board of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (until August 31, 2018) MICHAELA KERXHALLI-KLEINFIELD, Program Assistant, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems BEN A. WENDER, Senior Program Officer, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems ELIZABETH ZEITLER, Senior Program Officer, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems 1  Employedat Pacific Gas and Electric at the time of the workshop. 2 Member, National Academy of Sciences. 3 Member, National Academy of Engineering. v

BOARD ON ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS JARED COHON, NAE, Carnegie Mellon University, Chair DAVID ALLEN, NAE, University of Texas, Austin VICKY BAILEY, Anderson Stratton Enterprises W. TERRY BOSTON, NAE, GridLiance GP, LLC, and Grid Protection Alliance WILLIAM BRINKMAN, NAS, Princeton University DEEPAKRAJ DIVAN, NAE, Georgia Institute of Technology MARCIUS EXTAVOUR, XPRIZE NAT GOLDHABER, Claremont Creek Ventures BARBARA KATES-GARNICK, Tufts University JOANN MILLIKEN, Independent Consultant MARGO OGE, Office of Transportation and Air Quality, EPA (retired) MICHAEL RAMAGE, NAE, ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company (retired) DOROTHY ROBYN, Boston University KELLY SIMS-GALLAGHER, The Fletcher School, Tufts University ALEXANDER SLOCUM, NAE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology JOHN C. WALL, NAE, Cummins, Inc. (retired) ROBERT WEISENMILLER, California Energy Commission Staff K. JOHN HOLMES, Board Director/Scholar BETH DOLAN, Financial Manager MICHAELA KERXHALLI-KLEINFIELD, Program Assistant JANKI PATEL, Research Associate BEN A. WENDER, Senior Program Officer ELIZABETH ZEITLER, Senior Program Officer vi

Acknowledgment of Reviewers This Proceedings of a Workshop was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspec- tives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published proceed- ings as sound as possible and to ensure that the proceedings meets institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the process. We thank the following individuals for their review of this proceedings: W. Michael Hanemann, NAS,1 Arizona State University, Jennifer Jurado, Broward Country, Katherine Mach, Stanford University, and Melissa Widhalm, Purdue University. Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the content of the proceedings nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this proceedings was overseen by Michael R. Ladisch, NAE,2 Purdue University. He was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this proceedings was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this proceedings rests entirely with the rapporteurs and the National Academies. 1 Member, National Academy of Sciences. 2 Member, National Academy of Engineering. vii

Contents 1 INTRODUCTION TO THE WORKSHOP 1 2 CALIFORNIA’S CHANGING CLIMATE AND PRECIPITATION PATTERNS  5 AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS FOR WATER MANAGEMENT 3 HEAT, PUBLIC HEALTH, AND SUSCEPTIBLE COMMUNITIES 12 4 REGIONAL REPORTS AND ENGAGING CALIFORNIA’S REGIONAL CLIMATE COLLABORATIVES 18 5 MOVING FROM ASSESSMENT TO ACTION 26 6 FINDING COMMONALITIES AND DIFFERENCES WITH OTHER SUBNATIONAL ASSESSMENTS (PART 1) 34 7 FINDING COMMONALITIES AND DIFFERENCES WITH OTHER SUBNATIONAL ASSESSMENTS (PART 2) 42 8 SUMMARY OF BREAKOUT GROUP DISCUSSIONS 49 9 INITIATING, SUSTAINING, AND EVOLVING CLIMATE ASSESSMENT PROCESSES 51 APPENDIXES A Statement of Task 59 B Workshop Agenda 60 C Planning Committee Members Biographical Information 62 D Workshop Registrants (Online and In-Person) 65 E Acronyms 75 ix

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Climate assessment activities are increasingly driven by subnational organizations—city, county, and state governments; utilities and private companies; and stakeholder groups and engaged publics—trying to better serve their constituents, customers, and members by understanding and preparing for how climate change will impact them locally. Whether the threats are drought and wildfires, storm surge and sea level rise, or heat waves and urban heat islands, the warming climate is affecting people and communities across the country. To explore the growing role of subnational climate assessments and action, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine hosted the 2-day workshop on August 14-15, 2018. This publication summarizes the presentations and discussions from the workshop.

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