Using Existing Airport Management Systems to Manage Climate Risk (2018)

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D-1 If you find that additional information would be helpful for assessing your airport’s vul- nerability, detailed, location-specific climate information is available from a variety of sources. Listed below are the current best available data sources, which are updated regularly as new data become available. The sources below, drawn from Synthesis of Approaches for Addressing Resilience in Project Development (FHWA 2017), provide temperature and precipitation data and projections in the form of regional or downscaled projections. Often, for project-level analysis, you need to access downscaled climate data at a finer resolution. These sources provide downscaled climate projec- tions as readily downloadable data sets. They are listed in order from lowest to highest level of effort. For example, Climate Explorer allows you to view projections, while later databases allow you to download raw climate data outputs, which you would have to process yourself. If you find yourself in need of more rigorous climate assessment, your airport could use the U.S. DOT Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Climate Data Processing Tool to analyze these datasets, hire experts, or partner with a university. Temperature and Precipitation Data Options for Accessing Preprocessed High-Resolution Temperature and Precipitation Data These resources provide projections of specific variables based on high-resolution, down- scaled climate model data: • Climate Explorer. This resource, found within the U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit, provides interactive, customizable graphs and maps of observed and projected temperature, precipita- tion, and other climate hazards for every county in the contiguous United States. The tool can be used to find climate information for the area around your airport and shows two possible future projections for climate hazards. Variables included mean daily maximum temperature, mean daily minimum temperature, days with max above 95°F, days with min below 32°F, heating degree days, cooling degree days, mean daily precipitation, and days of precipitation more than 1 in. • USGS National Climate Change Viewer. This tool includes historical and future climate pro- jections from a variety of models and allows users to visualize the changes in climate (e.g., temperature and precipitation) and the water balance (e.g., snow water equivalent, runoff, soil water storage, and evaporative deficit) for any state and county. Variables include annual, monthly, 10th percentile, 25th percentile, 50th percentile, 75th percentile, and 90th percentile maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipi- tation, runoff, snow, soil storage, and evaporative deficit. A P P E N D I X D Climate Data Resources

D-2 Using Existing Airport Management Systems to Manage Climate Risk Options for Accessing Raw High-Resolution Temperature and Precipitation Data If the variables, time periods, or other aspects of the above data are insufficient for your needs, perform custom analyses of the raw climate model data. Data Sources • Downscaled CMIP3 and CMIP5 Climate and Hydrology Projections (DCHP) database. This tool contains publicly available, downloadable, downscaled climate projection data for the contiguous United States (for temperature and precipitation). • USGS Geo Data Portal. The web portal provides access to climate data sets, including projec- tions for temperature and precipitation using different downscaling techniques. • Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). This tool provides a model evaluation framework and an interface that users can look at climate simulations in climate change impact, adaptation, and mitigation studies. • North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). This is an international program that provides high-resolution climate scenarios for North America, with the use of regional climate models, coupled global climate models, and time-slice experiments. Processing Options • U.S. DOT CMIP Climate Data Processing Tool. This Excel-based tool processes data from the DCHP database to provide local-scale projections for climate variables that are significant for transportation planners, specifically temperature and precipitation (e.g., number of days above 95°F, hottest 7-day temperatures, and largest 3-day precipi- tation events). • Partner with an external expert (e.g., NOAA Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments Center, universities, and consultants) Sea Level Rise Data Airport managers must determine appropriate sea level rise scenarios for their location and needs and determine how sea level rise will affect flood frequency at their location. To develop these estimates, conduct an independent study to capture local conditions. A variety of resources can help you gather these data. Selecting the appropriate sea level rise scenarios requires parameters beyond temper- ature and precipitation scenarios. Most data sources provide projections at the national level, although some are adjusted for local upshift and subsidence. However, in areas where relative sea level rise rates are not available or when outstanding coastal processes are not accounted for, you may need to develop your own estimates. Airports should choose a range of global sea level rise estimates and integrate data on local land characteristics to determine local sea level rise. The following sources can be used to find sea level rise estimates and data. The majority of listed resources provide sea level rise projections, while the last resource is a visualization tool to explore sea level rise potential in different areas.

Climate Data Resources D-3 Sea Level Rise Projection Sources State and Local-level Resources • State and local guidance on sea level rise scenarios. Examples include the following: – California Department of Transportation’s Guidance on Incorporating Sea Level Rise. – Massachusetts Sea Level Rise: Understanding and Applying Trends and Future Scenarios for Analysis and Planning was released in 2013 and provides guidance on selecting and applying sea level rise scenarios. – Southeast Florida Regional Climate Change Compact Unified Sea Level Projections pro- vides projected sea level rise for the southeastern part of the state through 2100 and guid- ance on how to select appropriate scenarios. National Resources • NOAA Technical Report NOS CO-OPS 083: Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States (2017) provides updated estimates for global mean sea level rise through 2100 in 10-year increments, while also identifying reasonable ranges through 2200. The report provides six scenarios, plus the probability that each might occur under different scenarios (RCP2.6, 4.5, and 8.5). Though mostly national, the report does include some information on how global changes would manifest regionally. • U.S. Army Corps Sea Level Change Curve Calculator is a web-based tool that produces a table and graph of projected sea level changes at a specific location, using user input data. If no state guidance is available, this resource can be used to adjust global sea level rise estimates for local land elevation through 2100. This tool uses NOAA tide gauge data and sea level rise estimates from the National Research Council (NRC), Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and NOAA, and it provides projections for high, medium, and low scenarios. • National Climate Assessment (NCA) describes high-level projections of all climate stressors, focused on geographic regions (e.g., Pacific Northwest, Southwest, and Southeast). This resource can be a good overview of the types of climate changes expected in a region. It includes the rate of global and regional sea level rise, including historical and projected changes. The NCA is updated every four years. Sea Level Rise Mapping Resources • NOAA Sea Level Rise Viewer is a web mapping tool that allows you to visualize community- level impacts of sea level rise and coastal flooding. You can download sea level rise data for a variety of locations and use the tool to visualize exposure to sea level rise at levels up to 6 feet. However, this tool does not account for erosion, subsidence, or other processes. Therefore, the viewer is not recommended for detailed site analyses but can be used as a screening tool. • Climate Central’s Surging Seas: Risk Zone Map is an interactive online map presenting sea level and coastal flood risk information for the United States. Using its features, you can see projec- tions for a particular area or modify the water level between 0 and 10 feet to view inundated areas. • Climate Central’s Surging Seas: Risk Finder is an interactive screening/scoping tool that provides detailed local projections of more than 100 infrastructure and population variables. The tool uses maps, local sea level and flood risk projections, and other variables presented in an accessible way. This tool is not appropriate for site-level assessment, hazard assessment, or many more specific uses.