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8 This self-assessment is intended to help you, an airport system manager or climate risk management champion, identify the hazards most relevant for your airport and determine how to start integrating climate change considerations into your airportâs management sys- tems. This process will involve first gathering and compiling information on expected climate hazards in your location and then identifying possible impacts to your airport. Choosing the priority management systems for integrating climate change considerations depends on two key factors: 1. The nature of climate risks at your airport and 2. The management systems in place at your airport. This self-assessment walks you through the process of understanding the nature of climate risks at your airport and identifying the most appropriate management systems in light of those risks. You will determine what your local system looks like and what hazards climate change introduces. This is a similar process to the 5M model used in aviation (FAA 2012; see text box in Section 4.4.2). There are numerous resources available to help you to do this, including a step-by-step Airport Cooperative Research Program (ACRP) tool, explained below. Fill out the accompanying worksheet, located in Appendix A, to follow along in the self- assessment. If your airport has already conducted a climate risk assessment, proceed to Section 2.3. 2.1 What Are My Relevant Climate Hazards? All airports are exposed to climate hazards, such as high temperatures, heavy precipita- tion and flooding, snow storms, ice storms, drought, wildfires, sea level rise, and hurricanes. Examples of such hazards and their associated risks are shown in Table 2 and are organized by the following categories: physical risks, operational and business risks, and safety and security risks. The first step in this assessment is to determine which hazards may increase in severity or frequency in your area, and whether your airport may experience any new hazards. In the next step, you rank and prioritize the climate hazards and risks that are most relevant to your airport. During that process, refer to Table 2 for examples of the types of risks your airport might face. Information on what climate hazards to expect in your location is available from numerous sourcesâso many, in fact, that many airports find it overwhelming. The following steps are intended to simplify the process. C H A P T E R 2 Conduct Self-Assessment of Relevant Climate Hazards and Management Systems
Conduct Self-Assessment of Relevant Climate Hazards and Management Systems 9 Climate Hazard Physical Risks Operational and Business Risks Safety and Security Risks High temperatures â¢ Reduced operational lifespan of airport pavements â¢ Pavement buckling and loss of non-concrete pavement integrity â¢ Increased stress on air conditioning systems â¢ Greater demand and increased costs for cooling â¢ Limits to aircraft operations due to insufficient runway lengths â¢ Higher risk of heat- related health issues for workers â¢ Increased risk of fuel ignition (flashpoint of aviation fuel at 100Â°F) â¢ Changes in vector-borne and contagious diseases, increasing risk of disease spread through air travel Heavy precipitation and flooding â¢ Flooding and associated damage to facilities (e.g., buildings, drainage systems, navigational aids) â¢ Foundation heavea â¢ Flight delays during severe rain events â¢ Higher risk of power outages during severe storms â¢ Higher costs of flood mitigation â¢ Outbreak of contagious diseases due to extended flooding conditions favorable for vector population growtha Snowstorms â¢ Damage to navigational aids and other equipment â¢ Limited airport access â¢ Operational disruptions â¢ Need for deicing â¢ Safety risk to workers Ice storms â¢ Damage to navigational aids and other equipment â¢ Limited airport access â¢ Operational disruptions â¢ Need for deicing â¢ Safety risk to workers Droughts â¢ Pavement or foundation damage from soil contraction, subsidencea â¢ Reduced throughput capacitya â¢ Change in tourism and seasonal enplanementsa â¢ Increased water demand for landscaping â¢ Reduced water availabilitya Wildfires â¢ Destruction of assets â¢ Reduced visibility â¢ Access restrictions â¢ Reduced visibility â¢ Impaired air quality and associated health risks for outdoor workers Sea level rise â¢ Inundation of low-lying airfield buildings and other structures â¢ Flooding of runways and other airfield areas from storm drain overflows â¢ Salt water damage (e.g., corrosion) to aircraft and equipment â¢ Limited airport access â¢ Operational disruptions â¢ Additional inspections and maintenance â¢ Safety risk to passengers and workers â¢ Damaged electrical systems Hurricanes (including wind and storm surge) â¢ Inundation of runways, airfield areas, access roads, and facilities â¢ Salt water damage (e.g., corrosion) to aircraft and equipment â¢ Damage to navigational aids and other equipment â¢ Flight cancellations and delays â¢ Fuel supply and storage disruptions â¢ Limited airport access â¢ Safety risk to passengers and workers â¢ Impaired water quality and associated health risks from overwhelmed storm water systems Source: U.S. Department of Transportation 2014 unless otherwise noted. aACRP 2015b. Table 2. Examples of climate hazards and risks.
10 Using Existing Airport Management Systems to Manage Climate Risk Use this information to fill out columns A and B of the self-assessment worksheet (Appendix A). 1. If you have little previous exposure to the topic of climate change and the associated impacts, review the National Climate Assessment (NCA) section for your region for a high-level overview of key messages related to expected climate changes and their impacts in the region. The NCA, updated every four years, provides comprehensive national research findings on specific climate impacts and regions. If you already have some familiarity with this type of information, proceed to the next step. For example, the 2014 NCA includes the following key climate hazards for the Midwest (Pryor et al. 2014): â Extreme heat. This will manifest in terms of more days above 95 degrees and more cooling degree days, meaning more energy needed for cooling (see NCA Figure 18.2). â Heavy precipitation and flooding. The heaviest rainfall events have intensified in the past century, and âthis tendency toward more intense precipitation events is projected to con- tinueâ (see NCA Figure 18.6, shown in Figure 4). 2. Check whether there have been other climate change assessments in your location. For exam- ple, check with your state agencies, city government, and local university for existing studies. Also check with other airport leaders to determine whether personnel have researched or have begun addressing climate risks. You may be able to use this existing information to reduce work and to ensure coordination and consistency with other local efforts. In addition, these assessments may provide more information on climate hazards and the expected timing and severity of impacts beyond what the ACRP Airport Climate Risk Operational Screening (ACROS) tool (see Step 3) can provide. For example, the City of Philadelphia conducted an analysis to identify detailed climate change projections for the city, which may be useful for the airport (ICF 2014). In addition, the San Diego County Regional Airport Authority participated in a regional climate change assessment effort to assess the risks that sea level rise posed to airport operations (ACRP 2012a). 3. Use the ACRP Airport Climate Risk Operational Screening (ACROS) Tool to gather detailed projections of climate hazards and their impacts on your airport. Without going through the full tool to evaluate climate risks, you can use the ACROS tool to gather climate projections quickly for your airport (this task can take less than 10 minutes): Figure 4. Example from NCA.
Conduct Self-Assessment of Relevant Climate Hazards and Management Systems 11 Open the ACROS tool, enter your airport code, and get projections for multiple climate hazards for your airport. View the results either 1. In the tool directly (see Figure 5) or 2. In a report (even if you have not finished the rest of the toolâs risk assessment): click the âReportsâ button at the bottom of the left-hand pane to generate a summary table of the climate hazard projections (see Figure 6). 4. If your airport is coastal, look for information on whether any parts of your airport or its access roads could be affected by sea level rise. Check the following sources of information: â Locally specific studies. Many coastal areas have existing sea level rise mapping studies that take into account local land elevations, vertical land movement rates, expected sea level change rates in the area, and local coastal processes. Check with your state or local government offices and nearby universities for existing sea level rise assessments. â National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). If no locally specific stud- ies are available, the NOAA Sea Level Rise Viewer is a tool to visualize community-level impacts from coastal flooding or sea level rise (see Figure 7) (NOAA 2017a). 5. If you would like additional information, see the climate data resources in Appendix D. Terminology Clarification: Climate Hazards Versus Climate Vectors The ACROS tool uses slightly different terminology from this handbook. The ACROS tool identifies climate vectors, which are similar to climate hazards but are more specific and directly related to airport operations. Through the ACROS tool development process, airport subject matter experts identified climate hazards that would impact airport operations and worked with atmospheric scientists to identify specific climate metrics that could be analyzed. For example, high temperatures were identified as a hazard to multiple assets and operations. Specific climate vectors developed to assess this hazard included days per year when air temperature exceeded 90Â°F (hot days) and 100Â°F (very hot days) (ACRP 2015a). The table below maps the climate hazards in this handbook to the ACROS climate vectors: Climate Hazard ACROS Climate Vectors High temperatures Hot days, very hot days, hot nights, humid days, cooling days, cooling degree days, heating days, heating degree days Heavy precipitation and flooding Heavy rains (1 day), heavy rains (5 days), storm days Snowstorms Snow days Ice storms Freezing days, frost days Droughts Dry days Wildfires None Sea level rise Sea level rise, sea level riseâbase flood elevation Hurricanes None
12 Using Existing Airport Management Systems to Manage Climate Risk 2.2 What Are My Expected Climate Risks? Next, translate the information about climate hazards into climate risks that are relevant for your airport. Table 2 provides examples of the types of hazards and risks to consider. The degree of risk to your airport depends on the magnitude of change for each climate hazard, the sensitivity of airport infrastructure and operations to those changes, and the preparedness of your airport. This step leads you through the process of ranking and prioritizing climate risks. If your airport has already conducted a climate risk assessment, proceed to Section 2.3. Use this information to fill out Columns C, D, and E of the self-assessment worksheet (Appendix A). The risk assessment step can be as detailed as desired and should be revisited over time as new information becomes available, because climate science is changing rapidly. For one pathway, follow the steps below: â¢ If you are not ready to spend time on a more detailed risk assessment, work with others at your airport to complete this self-assessment based on personal judgment to understand which management systems may be most applicable to managing the types of climate risk at your airport. â You may also find it helpful to use the default results from the ACROS tool (see Figure 8). In addition to providing climate projections, the ACROS tool provides a structured process for conducting a risk screening and answering the question of what is most at risk to projected climate change within the entire airport (ACRP 2015a). Ideally, you will spend Figure 5. Examples of climate hazard projections from the ACROS tool (shown for BOS), viewed in the tool.
Conduct Self-Assessment of Relevant Climate Hazards and Management Systems 13 Figure 6. Examples of climate hazard projections from the ACROS tool (shown for BOS), viewed in the report. Figure 7. Screenshot of the NOAA sea level rise viewer.
14 Using Existing Airport Management Systems to Manage Climate Risk time rating the criticality (importance) and vulnerability of your airportâs assets to the hazards and reviewing the results to ensure that they are appropriate for your airport. â¢ For a more detailed assessment, invest time to complete the ACROS tool fully and involve staff from multiple departments to assess and to prioritize risks. At the end, the ACROS tool provides a prioritized list of climate risks, as shown in Figure 8. The red, yellow, and blue icons for impact risk represent high, medium, and low risk, respectively. If additional information would be helpful for assessing your airportâs vulnerability, a variety of sources of this information are available to the public, as described in Appendix D. Use this information to fill out Columns C, D, and E of the self-assessment worksheet (Appendix A). Table 3 shows the self-assessment worksheet populated with the use of the default results for Bostonâs Logan Airport (BOS) from Figure 8. As you review the ACROS risks for your airport, categorize the impacts as physical, business and operational, or safety and security to populate the worksheet. These three categories will help align the risks to related management systems. The results from ACROS should be reviewed critically to ensure that they align with the expe- riences and knowledge of airport stakeholders. If the results do not include hazards that you think are vital, you can modify the results, with ACROS as a starting point. Figure 8. Example of risk assessment from ACROS (default results for BOS shown).
Conduct Self-Assessment of Relevant Climate Hazards and Management Systems 15 Populated for BOS based on default ACROS tool results. A B C D E Expected Hazards Expected Timing Physical Risks Business and Operational Risks Safety and Security Risks High temperatures 2030s: 1.5â9.4 hot days 2060s: 3.7â22.4 hot days by 2060 High. Failure of building envelope Moderate. Loss of pavement integrity Low Reduced vegetation and increased erosion High. Increased HVAC demand and duration High. Reduced throughput capacity Low. Increase in number of endangered species Low. Potential for drawing in smoke through outdoor air handling systems Heavy precipitation and flooding 2030s: Increase in 1-day heavy rain event from 12.6 to 13â14 inches 2060s: Increase to 14.4â16.6 inches High. Building moisture damage; mold Moderate. Pavement heave Low. External facility damage due to flooding High. Reduced throughput capacity Moderate. Change in tourism and seasonal enplanements Low. Reduced level of service Moderate. Outbreak of contagious disease Low. Decreased food resources Snowstorms 2030s: 5.6â6.0 snow days 2060s: 4.1â4.9 snow days None identified None identified None identified Ice storms Not measured directly 2030s: 20.0â23.9 freezing days 2060s: 9.9â19.6 freezing days None identified None identified None identified Drought 2030s: 14.5â15.4 dry days 2060s: 14.4â16.6 dry days None identified None identified None identified Wildfires Not provided Not provided Not provided Not provided Sea level rise (SLR) From local study (City of Boston 2016): 2030s: 4â8 inches SLR 2050s: 7 inchesâ1.5 feet SLR 2070s: 1.3â3.1 feet SLR None identified in ACROS (this would be a place to supplement ACROS with additional information) None identified in ACROS (this would be a place to supplement ACROS with additional information) None identified in ACROS (this would be a place to supplement ACROS with additional information) Hurricanes Not analyzed None identified None identified None identified Other: _____________ Not applicable Not applicable Not applicable Not applicable Other: _____________ Not applicable Not applicable Not applicable Not applicable Summary Highest risk rating (e.g., high, moderate, low) High High Moderate Note: The risks in this table are not presented in priority order. Risks will need to be prioritized by each airport. Table 3. Example of completed self-assessment worksheet.
16 Using Existing Airport Management Systems to Manage Climate Risk If you are not using the ACROS tool, attempt to apply qualitative risk ratings (i.e., high, medium, and low) to the risks that you have identified. These ratings may be based on a sepa- rate analysis or personal judgment and can be refined over time as new information becomes available or as more detail is needed. For now, applying these ratings helps to prioritize which management systems are the best fit to manage your climate risks. 2.3 Which Management Systems Should I Use to Manage My Climate Risks? Although all management systems could ultimately be used to manage climate risk, you may prefer to choose just one or two to focus on during the early stages of the process. Then you could move on to other management systems and integrate climate considerations in a phased and gradual way across your airport. To choose where to address climate risk first, consider the following questions. 1. Which management systems address priority risks? Some management systems will be more relevant than others for managing different types and levels of risk. Here are some examples: â Strategic planning is well suited to manage multidiscipline, potentially existential risks to the airport, such as the risk of long-term inundation from sea level rise and the potential for significant changes in passenger or other use demand. â Master planning is well suited to manage long-term infrastructure risks that can impact forecasted service levels, such as those from extreme temperatures, sea level rise, and flooding. â Enterprise risk management is well suited to holistically address risk identification, plan- ning, and response coordination across the airport, such as those addressing airport service reliability. â Safety management is well suited to manage safety-related risks, such as extreme heat and the health effects on workers. â Capital planning is well suited to address infrastructure management and investment through a multiyear systematic approach that ensures basic safety, security, and operational efficiency and maximizes economic potential. â Asset management is well suited to manage the status of existing assets and infrastructure, as well as risks related to changes in operations and maintenance costs. â Emergency management is well suited to manage risks from operational changes due to extreme events (e.g., new risk of wildfires and ice storms). Furthermore, consider the severity of climate risks at the airport and which management systems can address those risks. Higher risks may warrant more management systems or more cross-cutting management systems. Examples follow: â Certain systems, such as asset management and emergency management, may be appropri- ate even for low risks and can be used with minimal modifications to stay on top of your existing climate risks and monitor them over time. â The higher the risk, the more management systems may be appropriate to manage them. For instance, if you have high physical risks, it may be appropriate not only to manage them through asset management, but also to incorporate into capital planning and master planning. â If climate change poses fundamental risks to the airport, consider identifying this risk in cross-cutting management systems such as strategic and master planning, which can then influence other applicable systems.
Conduct Self-Assessment of Relevant Climate Hazards and Management Systems 17 Figure 9 provides an example of how these concepts might be applied in practice to match an airportâs risks to the appropriate management systems to start with. For example, an airport with low physical risks and high business and operational risks may want to start with asset management, enterprise risk management, and strategic planning. 2. How does the time horizon of the management system correspond to projected climate risks? Also consider the time horizon of each management systemâincluding the planning horizon (e.g., the internal development cycle) and the implementation horizon (i.e., the lifetime of decisions set forth in the plan). For example, your capital plan may have a plan- ning horizon of 5 years with an annual update, but the priorities set forth in the plan, such as plans for expansion or new infrastructure developments, will have implications over many decades. If climate risks are expected within this implementation horizon of your management system, it may be necessary to account for these risks (Figure 10). 3. When will the management system be updated next? Figure 9. Example of match between management systems and levels of risk. Figure 10. Typical implementation horizons for airport management systems.
18 Using Existing Airport Management Systems to Manage Climate Risk Update Schedule Finally, it is pragmatic to incorporate climate risks into airport management systems as a part of their usual update schedule. Identify the management systems that are due for updates and determine which would be most relevant, given the considerations discussed in this section. Another option may be to account for climate risks during the next strategic plan update, because it establishes the major programmatic, policy, and management goals of the organiza- tion and is the management mechanism that other planning analyses align with and support. Ultimately, the preferred approach is at your discretion. Example Starting Points Even if your airport does not know the risks or has determined that it faces low risks, there are still actions that all airports could take that require minimal up-front work and can increase the airportâs ability to manage risks over time. With starting points such as the following exam- ples, you can manage and understand your climate risks over time, even if risks are low or unknown today: â¢ Use asset management (or other) systems to monitor climate risks over time. How often are drainage systems failing? Are pavements meeting their expected useful life? This assessment can improve your understanding and management of risks. See details in the sections about asset management strategies (Section 4.6) and cross-cutting adaptive management strategies (Section 4.8). â¢ Consider climate change in the design of new infrastructure. If your airport is making major, long-lasting capital expenditures, take the opportunity to ensure that the infrastructure will fulfill its intended useful life. That desired result requires planning for the expected weather conditions the infrastructure may experience over its lifetime. See details in the section on capital planning strategies (Section 4.5). â¢ Learn from extreme weather events. As extreme weather events occur, learn from them to improve emergency management and other planning efforts continuously. See details in the section on emergency management strategies (Section 4.7). The next two chapters provide details on how to build support and use each of these systems, and others, to manage your climate risks.