Updating Regional Transportation Planning and Modeling Tools to Address Impacts of Connected and Automated Vehicles, Volume 2: Guidance (2018)

Below is the uncorrected machine-read text of this chapter, intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text of each book. Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.

2018 N A T I O N A L C O O P E R A T I V E H I G H W A Y R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M NCHRP RESEARCH REPORT 896 Updating Regional Transportation Planning and Modeling Tools to Address Impacts of Connected and Automated Vehicles Volume 2: Guidance Subscriber Categories Highways • Operations and Traffic Management • Planning and Forecasting Research sponsored by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials in cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration Johanna Zmud Texas a&M TransporTaTion insTiTuTe Washington, DC Tom Williams DKs associaTes Austin, TX Maren Outwater a n d Mark Bradley resource sysTeMs Group San Diego, CA Nidhi Kalra ranD corporaTion San Francisco, CA Shelley Row shelley row associaTes llc Annapolis, MD

NATIONAL COOPERATIVE HIGHWAY RESEARCH PROGRAM Systematic, well-designed research is the most effective way to solve many problems facing highway administrators and engineers. Often, highway problems are of local interest and can best be studied by highway departments individually or in cooperation with their state universities and others. However, the accelerating growth of highway transportation results in increasingly complex problems of wide inter- est to highway authorities. These problems are best studied through a coordinated program of cooperative research. Recognizing this need, the leadership of the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) in 1962 ini- tiated an objective national highway research program using modern scientific techniques—the National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP). NCHRP is supported on a continuing basis by funds from participating member states of AASHTO and receives the full cooperation and support of the Federal Highway Administration, United States Department of Transportation. The Transportation Research Board (TRB) of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine was requested by AASHTO to administer the research program because of TRB’s recognized objectivity and understanding of modern research practices. TRB is uniquely suited for this purpose for many reasons: TRB maintains an extensive com- mittee structure from which authorities on any highway transportation subject may be drawn; TRB possesses avenues of communications and cooperation with federal, state, and local governmental agencies, univer- sities, and industry; TRB’s relationship to the National Academies is an insurance of objectivity; and TRB maintains a full-time staff of special- ists in highway transportation matters to bring the findings of research directly to those in a position to use them. The program is developed on the basis of research needs identified by chief administrators and other staff of the highway and transportation departments, by committees of AASHTO, and by the Federal Highway Administration. Topics of the highest merit are selected by the AASHTO Special Committee on Research and Innovation (R&I), and each year R&I’s recommendations are proposed to the AASHTO Board of Direc- tors and the National Academies. Research projects to address these top- ics are defined by NCHRP, and qualified research agencies are selected from submitted proposals. Administration and surveillance of research contracts are the responsibilities of the National Academies and TRB. The needs for highway research are many, and NCHRP can make significant contributions to solving highway transportation problems of mutual concern to many responsible groups. The program, however, is intended to complement, rather than to substitute for or duplicate, other highway research programs. Published research reports of the NATIONAL COOPERATIVE HIGHWAY RESEARCH PROGRAM are available from Transportation Research Board Business Office 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 and can be ordered through the Internet by going to http://www.national-academies.org and then searching for TRB Printed in the United States of America NCHRP RESEARCH REPORT 896, VOLUME 2 Project 20-102(09) ISSN 2572-3766 (Print) ISSN 2572-3774 (Online) ISBN 978-0-309-47998-1 Library of Congress Control Number 2018961849 © 2018 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. COPYRIGHT INFORMATION Authors herein are responsible for the authenticity of their materials and for obtaining written permissions from publishers or persons who own the copyright to any previously published or copyrighted material used herein. Cooperative Research Programs (CRP) grants permission to reproduce material in this publication for classroom and not-for-profit purposes. Permission is given with the understanding that none of the material will be used to imply TRB, AASHTO, FAA, FHWA, FMCSA, FRA, FTA, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Research and Technology, PHMSA, or TDC endorsement of a particular product, method, or practice. It is expected that those reproducing the material in this document for educational and not-for-profit uses will give appropriate acknowledgment of the source of any reprinted or reproduced material. For other uses of the material, request permission from CRP. Cover photo credit: metamorworks/Shutterstock.com. NOTICE The research report was reviewed by the technical panel and accepted for publication according to procedures established and overseen by the Transportation Research Board and approved by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. The opinions and conclusions expressed or implied in this report are those of the researchers who performed the research and are not necessarily those of the Transportation Research Board; the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine; or the program sponsors. The Transportation Research Board; the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine; and the sponsors of the National Cooperative Highway Research Program do not endorse products or manufacturers. Trade or manufacturers’ names appear herein solely because they are considered essential to the object of the report.

The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, non- governmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., is president. The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president. The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The National Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine. Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.national-academies.org. The Transportation Research Board is one of seven major programs of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. The mission of the Transportation Research Board is to increase the benefits that transportation contributes to society by providing leadership in transportation innovation and progress through research and information exchange, conducted within a setting that is objective, interdisciplinary, and multimodal. The Board’s varied committees, task forces, and panels annually engage about 7,000 engineers, scientists, and other transportation researchers and practitioners from the public and private sectors and academia, all of whom contribute their expertise in the public interest. The program is supported by state transportation departments, federal agencies including the component administrations of the U.S. Department of Transportation, and other organizations and individuals interested in the development of transportation. Learn more about the Transportation Research Board at www.TRB.org.

C O O P E R A T I V E R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M S CRP STAFF FOR NCHRP RESEARCH REPORT 896 Christopher J. Hedges, Director, Cooperative Research Programs Lori L. Sundstrom, Deputy Director, Cooperative Research Programs Lawrence D. Goldstein, Senior Program Officer Anthony P. Avery, Senior Program Assistant Eileen P. Delaney, Director of Publications Natalie Barnes, Associate Director of Publications Janet M. McNaughton, Senior Editor NCHRP PROJECT 20-102(09) PANEL Special Projects Scott A. Peterson, Boston Region Metropolitan Planning Organization, Stoneham, MA (Chair) Majed N. Al-Ghandour, North Carolina DOT, Raleigh, NC Erik A. Alm, California DOT, Sacramento, CA Giovanni Circella, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA Steven J. Cook, Michigan DOT, Lansing, MI Ali Hajbabaie, Washington State University, Pullman, WA Jerome M. Lutin, New Jersey Transit, Monmouth Junction, NJ Richard R. Mudge, Compass Transportation & Technology Inc., Potomac, MD Anne Reshadi, Wisconsin DOT, Milwaukee, WI Kirk Zeringue, Louisiana DOTD, Baton Rouge, LA Jeremy Raw, FHWA Liaison DeLania Hardy, Association of Metropolitan Planning Organizations Liaison Matthew Hardy, American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials Liaison Jennifer L. Weeks, TRB Liaison

NCHRP Report 896: Updating Regional Transportation Planning and Modeling Tools to Address Impacts of Connected and Automated Vehicles, Volume 2: Guidance includes detailed information and guidelines for state departments of transportation (DOTs) and metro- politan planning organizations (MPOs) to help update their modeling and forecasting tools to address expected impacts of connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) on transporta- tion supply, road capacity, and travel demand components. CAVs are likely to influence all personal and goods movement level of demand, travel modes, planning and investment decisions, physical transportation infrastructure, and geographic areas. Under requirements for long-range transportation planning established by the Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century Act (MAP-21) federal statewide and metropolitan planning regulations, DOTs and regional MPOs are required to have a multimodal trans- portation plan with a minimum time horizon of 20 years. CAVs are developing rapidly, and manufacturers and shared fleet operators suggest that highly automated vehicles will be present on the highway system in significant numbers well before the year 2038, the mini- mum time horizon for plans initiated in the current year. As evidence of that commitment, there are 17 shared automated vehicle (SAV) pilots in eight states in current deployment. There will be both direct and indirect impacts of CAV deployment, and not all these impacts will be positive. Experience has shown that there are often indirect and unintended conse- quences from rapid changes, and the planning community needs procedures and methods to address both potentially positive and potentially negative outcomes. In this report, the Texas A&M Transportation Institute, DKS Associates, Resource Systems Group, RAND Corporation, and Shelley Row Associates together reflect on the challenge of forecasting travel behavior in the context of CAVs; describe the technologies and the influ- ences on their adoption timelines; present a framework for planning and modeling; present approaches for planning under uncertainty; and suggest updates to trip-based and activity- based dynamic assignment and strategic modeling systems. This report is intended for use by experienced agency staff of state DOTs and MPOs that have greater (and lesser) planning and modeling capacity. While the modeling approach may differ among these agencies, all have in common the need to develop new planning and modeling processes that include CAVs in the transportation environment. The research team also developed a stand-alone executive summary (Volume 1) that concisely con- veys the key findings of the research. It is available with this report on the TRB website (http://www.trb.org), along with a PowerPoint® presentation that can be adapted for presentations to agency decision makers. F O R E W O R D By Lawrence D. Goldstein Staff Officer Transportation Research Board

1 Chapter 1 Introduction 1 Study Objectives 2 Defining the Problem: Forecasting Travel Behavior and Technological Changes 4 Navigating the Report 6 Chapter 2 Definitions of CAVs and Current Status 6 Definitions of AVs and CVs 8 Levels of Automation 8 Current AV Context 9 Current CV Context 11 Chapter 3 Uncertainties Associated with CAVs 11 Uncertain CAV Adoption Timelines 13 Monitoring and Surveying AV and CV Adoption 14 Uncertain Benefits and Risks of AVs and CVs 19 Critical Considerations for Planning and Modeling 23 Chapter 4 Framework for Planning and Modeling CAVs 23 Elements of a CAV Planning and Modeling Framework 24 Framework for CAV Planning and Modeling 30 Chapter 5 Planning in the Context of Uncertainty 30 Uncertainty in Transportation Systems 32 Overview of Planning Processes 33 Qualitative Methods for Managing Deep Uncertainty 35 Quantitative Methods for Managing Deep Uncertainty 36 Institutional, Resource, and Other Considerations for Managing Deep Uncertainty 38 Chapter 6 Adapting Trip-Based Models to Address CAVs 38 Overview 41 Land Use Modeling 43 Auto Availability and Mobility Choices 45 Trip Generation 47 Trip Distribution 48 Mode Choice 50 Routing and Traffic Assignment 53 Chapter 7 Adapting Disaggregate/Dynamic Models to Address CAVs 53 Overview 54 Modeling System 54 Sociodemographics C O N T E N T S

56 Land Use/Built Environment 56 Auto Ownership/Mobility Models 58 Activity Generation and Scheduling 59 Destination/Location Choice 60 Mode Choice 61 Routing and Traffic Assignment 62 Pricing 63 Truck and Commercial Vehicles 64 Chapter 8 Adapting Strategic Models to Address CAVs 64 Overview 65 Model System 65 Sociodemographics 68 Built Environment 69 Mobility 70 Accessibility 70 Pricing 71 Travel Demand 72 Mode Choice 73 Truck and Commercial Vehicles 74 Chapter 9 Communicating in an Uncertain Environment 74 Decision-Making Continuum 75 Talking About Uncertainty 78 References 82 List of Acronyms 83 Appendix Regulatory Context for CAVs Note: Photographs, figures, and tables in this report may have been converted from color to grayscale for printing. The electronic version of the report (posted on the web at www.trb.org) retains the color versions.