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8 Exploratory topic 1 FrEightâimpacts on pEoplE Timothy Papandreou and Barbara Lenz This exploratory topic focused on both long-haul goods transport and urban or regional delivery. The fundamen- tally different situation for long-haul and urban deliv- ery represents a particularly complex challenge when designing a âworld of road automation.â Lenz and Papandreou described the overall impacts on the freight sector of Scenario 1: Automated Vehicles Taking Over Transport Business, which entails a quick adoption of automation and the upgrading of road infrastructure, with most logistic providers relying on automated truck fleets and the automation of supply chains. In this scenario, freight transport is massively shifted on roads, with negative effects on road traffic and subsequent low public acceptance. Lenz and Papandreou discussed the implications of Scenario 1 on economics and the workforce. They noted that this scenario requires a considerable invest- ment from the state and is likely to negatively affect the competitiveness of small and independent trucking and distribution companies while spurring the rise of oligop- olies. Critical issues therefore arise on the capability and willingness of the state to invest in new infrastructure, the societal acceptability of huge public spending for the benefit of a limited group of companies, and the need to devise new business models to provide automation- This section summarizes the presentation of the exploratory topic papers by the symposium plan-ning committee members. It further highlights the main research topics discussed in the breakout groups, as presented by the planning committee members. The four exploratory topic papers were presented in the ple- nary session, and their full text is provided in Appen- dix B. Symposium participants discussed challenges and opportunities and potential areas for future research in breakout groups facilitated by the planning commit- tee members. The presentations and breakout group discussions followed the format of addressing the four cross-cutting areas where the socioeconomic impacts of CAVSM are expected (economics and the workforce, equity, data access and privacy, and safety and security) in each of the two envisaged scenarios. The adopted four-by-four structure allowed each of the four breakout groups to address each of the four cross-cutting impact areas, as illustrated in Figure 5. The planning committee did not expect the sympo- sium experts to work exclusively with the two proposed scenarios but to view them as a starting point for discus- sion, which frequently highlighted extremes to provoke a dialogue about research needs. There was no intent to rank or rate the research ideas discussed, nor was there any attempt to prioritize the potential research topics. The planning committee members presented summaries of the breakout group discussions in the final general session. Timothy Papandreou, City Innovate, San Francisco, USA Barbara Lenz, German Aerospace Center, Berlin, Germany Alex Karner, University of Texas, Austin, USA Marcin Stepniak, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland Alexandra Millonig, AIT Austrian Institute of Technology, Vienna, Austria Susan Shaheen, University of California, Berkeley, USA Matthew W. Daus, Windels Marx Lane and Mittendorf, LLP, New York, USA Satu Innamaa, VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Ltd., Helsinki, Finland Presentation of Exploratory Topics and Areas of Suggested Research
P R E S E N T A T I O N O F E X P L O R A T O R Y T O P I C S 9 ready infrastructure requiring motorway tolls. Lenz and Papandreou acknowledged the risk of tremendous job losses among drivers. Examining these possible job losses entails the identification of alternatives in the short- to medium-term along the supply chains, the character- ization of the new jobs required for a fully automated freight system, and the identification of the correspond- ing education and training needs. They remarked that uncertainties also affect other jobs directly or indirectly related to freight operation, notably, in professions such as planning, traffic management, and parking. In addi- tion, the massive adoption of artificial intelligence and machine learning is likely to further affect jobs currently held by humans. Lenz and Papandreou observed that the expected decrease in transportation costs may cause manufacturing industry to move further away from pop- ulated areas. In discussing the impacts of Scenario 1 on equity, Lenz and Papandreou noted that more on-road ship- ments are likely to result in increasing levels of noise and air pollution, while the quality of life in urban areas is likely to be negatively affected by the diffusion of off- peak deliveries, thus calling for new options to relieve those living close to road infrastructures or in areas of frequent deliveries. However, they cautioned that resi- dential areas underequipped for automated delivery may become delivery deserts, adding to the already existing retail and food deserts. On data access and privacy, Lenz and Papandreou noted that Scenario 1 implies a loss of access to supply chain data by smaller firms, seriously hampering their capability to collaborate with other companies in the chain. They remarked that as access to data becomes a core asset for the freight business, the value of digital information must be carefully weighed against implemen- tation costs. Issues raised therefore focus on the shifting role of the main actors. In such a shift, large e-commerce platforms could potentially acquire a dominant position across production, sales, and consumption, while whole- salers, small producers, dealers, and logistic operators could disappear. The coauthors also commented on the potential role of Blockchain3 technology in increasing security and trust, thus contributing to supply chain consolidation. At the same time, freight transport costs could also be driven up as a consequence of the reduced number of available options. In addressing the fourth cross-cutting impact area of Scenario 1, safety and security, Lenz and Papandreou remarked that the early implementation of automation may raise safety issues and therefore lead to resistance against freight automation. Questions arise concern- ing the reliability of automation software in providing safer operations for both the driving and the loading/ unloading of goods. In addition, these concerns generally related more to whether automation would limit the con- trol capabilities of authorities and police on the nature of transported loads, their legitimacy, and the security of the goods. Lenz and Papandreou introduced Scenario 2: Auto- mated Road Freight Restrained by Policy. In this scenario, road automation is severely regulated, notably through Four cross-cutting impact areas Freight & people involved Stakeholders role & attitude Places where people live, work, & play Travel behavior F ou r ex pl or at or y to pi cs Economy & workforce Equity Data access & privacy Safety & security FIGURE 5 Interaction of four exploratory topics and four cross-cutting impact areas. 3 Blockchain is a digital ledger in which transactions are recorded chrono- logically and publicly.
1 0 S O C I O E C O N O M I C I M P A C T S O F A U T O M A T E D A N D C O N N E C T E D V E H I C L E S an obligation for low-emissions powertrains, while auto- mation of rail and waterways is reinforced. New business models for dual use (freight/passenger) emerge, and the overall positive effects on safety and environment con- tribute to generate high public acceptance. The coauthors discussed the implications of Sce- nario 2 on economics and the workforce. They observed that the effects of automation on regional economies are largely uncertain for both the deployment of the circu- lar economy and also the pressure that automation may exert in restraining trade and forcing the preference of urban areas for locally made, grown, or developed prod- ucts and delivery systems. In this scenario, regulation is in place to facilitate the labor transition, allowing it enough time. This regulation may, however, meet resis- tance from firms, states, cities, and citizens in accepting a slow pace that hinders the deployment of new busi- nesses and transport systems. As in Scenario 1, appro- priate education and (re)training needs must be swiftly appraised and short- to medium-term alternatives to immediate job losses identified. In addressing the equity impacts of Scenario 2, Lenz and Papandreou noted that reduced transport costs would likely lead to an increase in purchasing power across income ranges, therefore including lower and middle classes, with unknown effects on household con- sumption and, subsequently, on production and trade of consumer goods. They argued that a reorganization of supply chain logistics may yield beneficial effects in residential areas, for instance, by promoting smaller and more locally focused distribution that helps eliminate food and retail deserts. In parallel, such reorganization may also free up land in urban areas that then can be used for equitable housing, healthcare, and education. The coauthors remarked that in this scenario, regulation might be required to ensure not only that the interests of businesses are not unduly prioritized against those of citizens, but also to ensure equitable curb access for freight delivery and other shared mobility services. Concerning data access and privacy impacts, Lenz and Papandreou observed that much of the private sector data concern product mix, shipping times, end-consumersâ behavior, and financial information. While their commer- cial value is in principle known to businesses, the value of public data, alone or in combination with private data, is uncertain. Ensuring data access for efficient operations while safeguarding the usersâ privacy raises several issues concerning the nature of data used or exchanged, the allo- cation of responsibilities in data management, and the optimal mix of public and private data such that the pri- vate sector is encouraged to collaborate. The coauthors remarked that such data systems may provide a through- put competitive advantage to regional and urban govern- ments in promoting their ports, railways, and trucking systems for retail or end-consumer deliveries. Lenz and Papandreou discussed safety and security impacts in Scenario 2. In this regulation-driven scenario, specific laws may be required to allow for digital inspec- tions of automated freight and delivery vehicles and of freight transported along an automated supply chain. At the outset, it may be necessary to identify which inspections will still be needed with full digitization and increased traceability along the supply chain and to understand the resulting public trust in the automated system. The coauthors observed that automated delivery systems may contribute to establishing a safer urban envi- ronment and to reducing congestion and fatalities on major intercity relations such as through platooning. At the same time, the coauthors suggested that delivery vehi- cles would need to be designed so that pedestrians, persons with disabilities, and other vulnerable users would be duly accounted for. Problem Statements and Suggested Future Research The participants in the breakout groups identified prob- lem statements and knowledge gaps and discussed how these could translate in future joint EU-U.S. research on the socioeconomic impacts of CAVs in the freight sector and for the people involved therein. Participants further discussed the extent to which digitization of freight operations may entail radical changes in overall travel patterns and in the organization of logistics. A number of participants acknowledged the limited public funding of research addressing the deployment of CAV- based freight transport systems, although the freight sector is likely to pioneer the transition to CAV. A selec- tion of research ideas was presented in the closing ses- sion by the planning committee members responsible for this first exploratory topic. In addition, the rapporteur reviewed various sets of notes from the breakout groups. The result is as follows: ⢠Investigate the future/changing roles and responsibili- ties of drivers, which new or alternative tasks they could be assigned (e.g., at collection points for the last mile), and which other job opportunities exist at locations. ⢠Identify the education and (re)training requirements for workers with jobs at risk and the relevance of demo- graphic variables (age groups). ⢠Explore new opportunities for collaboration between government, industry, and civil society, how their respective roles will change and which new gover- nance frameworks are required to fully harness the CAV potential in the freight sector. ⢠Research the effects of freight automation on equity gaps and whether and to what extent a CAV-operated
P R E S E N T A T I O N O F E X P L O R A T O R Y T O P I C S 11 freight transport system will have an impact on the capability of people to satisfy their basic needs and freedoms and whether an increasing digital divide may prevent access to automated freight services for specific socioeconomic groups. ⢠Examine requirements and opportunities for sub- sidizing automated freight infrastructure and its main- tenance and investigate the societal acceptability of large public investments that will only (appear to) ben- efit a limited set of companies and communities. ⢠Assess the environmental impacts of automated freight and automated deliveries and their spatial and demo- graphic distribution. ⢠Identify the intersection of data access and privacy with freight automation and investigate its socio- economic effects. ⢠Examine whether and to what extent data exchange associated with freight automation can provide oppor- tunities for developing novel multimodal solutions that are environmentally friendly and spatially efficient. ⢠Identify and establish safety standards, protocols, and indicators that a CAV-operated freight system is required to meet before it is fully deployed and scaled. ⢠Develop appropriate audiovisual communication cue protocols that maximize the security of loading/ unloading automated freight vehicles. ⢠Devise and establish a research framework on the cybersecurity of automated freight and deliveries that overcomes shortcomings from the classified nature of most cybersecurity research. The discussion in the breakout groups developed beyond the above list and raised a variety of supplemen- tary issues that may enrich the design of future research programs. A short additional selection of possible research topics is provided below. ⢠Impacts of the new organization of work on the mental workload of personnel; ⢠Job losses outside the freight transport sector (e.g., rest areas); ⢠Changes in consumersâ behavior as a result of urban delivery automation; ⢠Different day/night urban patterns and city livability; ⢠Impacts of built-in biases of algorithmic automation on the movement of goods; ⢠Opportunities from freight automation to redefine the social contract, that is, the respective rights and obli- gations of governments and citizens; ⢠Freight automation and location-based discrimination; ⢠Human-centric design of freight automation systems; ⢠Public incentives to foster data sharing; ⢠Automated urban deliveries and their impact on the current proliferation of gig jobs;4 and ⢠New insurance models and liability frameworks reflecting the changes in roles and responsibilities. Exploratory topic 2 placEs WhErE pEoplE livE, Work, and play Alex Karner and Marcin Stepniak This exploratory topic addressed potential land use changes (e.g., residential density, employment density, square feet of retail space) that are likely to arise under two very different transportation automation futures. Karner and Stepniak introduced Scenario 1: CAVs on the Rise, which assumes that the development of CAVs is driven purely by market forces. In this scenario, CAVs completely replace traditional vehicles, with a subsequent decrease in the attractiveness of nonmotorized modes. The cost of travel time tends toward zero, leading to an increase in trip lengths and in the intensification of devel- opment pressures to respond to the ensuing relocation trend. Demand for parking is reduced and concentrates in city centers, while the accelerated adoption of charging zones drives a growing need for drop-in/drop-out areas. The critical issue in Scenario 1 is accessibility to CAVs. Karner and Stepniak discussed the impacts of Sce- nario 1 on economics and the workforce. They argued that the reduction in space allocated to parking may lead to an increased concentration of economic activity. The impact on firmsâ location choice will then depend on the extent to which development is transit-oriented. This scenario features an increased concentration of retail and services, which is likely to prompt the emergence and the prevalence of service hubs and the disappearance of smaller service locations. The coauthors noted that the impact on urban form is uncertain, as this scenario could result in the development of a polycentric city model but could also lead to bolstering monocentric urban structures. In addressing equity issues raised by CAVs in this scenario, Karner and Stepniak observed that the main challenge is to ensure equitable access to CAVs. The pri- mary concern is therefore to provide increased access for transport to disadvantaged populations, which notably 4 Gig jobs are temporary, flexible jobs typically held by independent con- tractors and freelancers instead of full-time employees.
1 2 S O C I O E C O N O M I C I M P A C T S O F A U T O M A T E D A N D C O N N E C T E D V E H I C L E S calls for policies and measures that offset the negative effects of the digital divide induced by the pervasive dif- fusion of mobile and banking technology. An additional hurdle toward serving disadvantaged populations is the reduction in public transit services that can be expected from the full reliance on CAVs. Concerning the impacts on land use, Karner and Stepniak cautioned against the risks of increasing segregation and place-based discrimi- nation that could result from the massive adoption of CAV-based transport systems. The coauthors examined the safety and security impacts in this scenario. They noted that CAVs promise to guarantee full protection against accidents resulting from human error. However, considering the inevitable spatial disparities in access to CAVs, they concluded that the spa- tial distribution of accident risk is subject to great uncer- tainty. Concerning security impacts, they remarked that a major distinction should be made between the security levels of shared and private CAVs. However, it is likely that mode choice (shared versus privately owned) will become dependent on place and time, altogether stressing the need to consider travel security as a driving factor. Concluding the presentation of the first scenario, Karner and Stepniak discussed the arising data access and privacy issues. They observed that handling person- ally identifiable information on location choices is par- ticularly critical and cautioned against the subsequent potential risks of both state and private discrimination. They also noted that access to information is bound to reflect on land value, with impacts on land management and on land speculation pressures. Karner and Stepniak introduced Scenario 2: CAVs Tamed by Policy and People, which assumes that the development of CAVs is dramatically limited and highly regulated. In this scenario, the overall traffic volumes are reduced and nonmotorized modes become more attrac- tive. Telework dominates, with smaller and shared AVs prevailing in the passenger sector while CAVs are used largely for the movement of goods. Changes in land use policy and practice induce a decline of local control while transport-oriented development is on the rise. The critical issue in this scenario is accessibility to places. Karner and Stepniak discussed the impacts of Sce- nario 2 on economics and the workforce. The reduction in commute distances and times is expected to generate an overall increase in population health. Additional eco- nomic and workforce impacts will most likely stem from the diffusion of telework, which the coauthors observed may not follow a homogeneous pattern. Telework exhib- its different degrees of adoption across sectors, while low- wage labor in all sectors is likely to remain largely place based. Altogether, telework patterns will probably result in differentiated impacts between economic sectors. In addressing equity implications, Karner and Stepniak argued that Scenario 2 also features a significant poten- tial for continued segregation, where prosperous areas with high shares of telecommuters retain an advantage over more deprived areas populated by commuters with restricted transport options. To mitigate such inequalities, non-CAV policies, such as the development of affordable housing, are required. The coauthors commented on the safety and security impacts of Scenario 2. They noted that neighborhood effects may generate additional inequalities. Prosperous areas where commuting is reduced and CAVs operate more safely will probably enjoy a declining injury risk, whereas disadvantaged areas may suffer from an increas- ing risk. Karner and Stepniak raised the concern that in relation to disaster preparedness, the adoption of CAVs is likely to make large-scale evacuations difficult. To conclude the presentation of Scenario 2, the co authors discussed data access and privacy implica- tions. They remarked that in this scenario, the limited uptake of CAVs inherently implies a reduced need for data collection. Data that would be collected are primarily associated with medium and long-range trips, making it possible to envisage a data collection system that would be operated and controlled at the local/ decentralized levels (places) as opposed to a centralized manner (e.g., at the hands of a global company/agency), thus containing the risks of undue circulation and mis- use. On the other hand, the previously advocated gov- ernment intervention in the private housing market entails the collection of additional data. Problem Statements and Suggested Future Research Individual participants in the breakout groups identi- fied problem statements and knowledge gaps, and dis- cussed how these could translate in future joint EU-U.S. research on the socioeconomic impacts of CAV on the places where people live, work, and play. It was noted that any research related to AV implementation must consider different spatial contexts, notably the micro scale (streets), the mesoscale (urban/suburban/rural differentiation), and the macroscale (diversity across countries and world regions such as Europe, the United States, and the global south), with spatial impacts sys- tematically analyzed through the prism of multimodality and interconnectivity between modes. The planning committee members presented a selection of research ideas in each exploratory topic during the closing ses- sion. In addition, the rapporteur reviewed notes from the breakout groups. The result is summarized in the following list. ⢠Examine how the advent of CAVs can help cities inte- grate shared mobility in their public transport strategy.
P R E S E N T A T I O N O F E X P L O R A T O R Y T O P I C S 13 ⢠Investigate public acceptance of long commuting trips and whether and how this is likely to change with the introduction of AVs. ⢠Estimate the extent to which a CAV-based transport system will influence travel time budgets and the sub- sequent direct impacts on land use patterns, urban forms (e.g., mono- versus polycentric), the distribu- tion of residential areas, and the centralization of jobs. ⢠Research the potential contribution of CAVs to the mitigation of transport disadvantages, the effects of switching from fixed to variable costs, and the role of the public sector in subsidizing services in specific places. ⢠Identify and test new (including participatory) methods to assess equity impacts of transport policies and plans, as traditional workhorse tools like travel demand and land use models may prove unfit to gauge the equity performance of CAV-based transport systems. ⢠Develop pilot projects at different spatial scales (urban, suburban, rural), notably to link results of equity per- formance analysis to practice. ⢠Identify strategies and best practices for publicâprivate data sharing and assess the extent to which such strategies are constrained by power wielded by local jurisdictions. ⢠Explore the potential for integration of data into a unified platform for transport system management covering many different modes and options and thus superseding the centrality of cars so far. ⢠Foster data integration and interoperability through the development of open data standards based on common use cases for cities and regions. ⢠Review and assess a range of options for leveraging and putting data to purpose, with particular emphasis on light detection and ranging (lidar) data. ⢠Develop an interdisciplinary approach to design infrastructure and public space in a CAV-dominated environment, including streets, parking areas, small traffic architecture (traffic signs, street lights), sharing spaces, and the associated usersâ prioritization. ⢠Research the impact of the dependency on AVs on failure/disaster management and devise protocols and procedures for evacuation in a CAV environment and for containing blackout implications, as CAVs rely heavily on the electricity supply. ⢠Review past and contemporary experiences to derive best practices in the transfer of lessons learned between different spatial and social contexts. The discussion in the breakout groups developed a variety of supplementary issues that may enrich the design of future research programs. Additional possible research topics are as follows: ⢠Changes induced by CAVs on job location and how they differ across sectors; ⢠Shared mobility complementing or competing with public transport or both; ⢠Public acceptance of shift from fixed to flexible public transport schedules and routing; ⢠Distance-based pricing and the potential cost increase for the end user; ⢠Positive and negative effects of CAVSM on residential and employment segregation (friendly communities versus ghettos); ⢠Impacts of CAVs and increased accessibility on prop- erty values, gentrification, and displacement; ⢠CAV-driven risk of marginalization of pedestrians and cyclists; ⢠Risk of demographic discrimination, data requirements, and responsibilities; ⢠Sociotechnical enablers and barriers of CAV-based shared mobility; ⢠Rethinking public transit in low-density suburban areas; ⢠Policies and measures for intergenerational equity; and ⢠Urban resilience in the event of AV failure or insuf- ficient availability. Exploratory topic 3 impact oF automation on travEl BEhavior Alexandra Millonig and Susan Shaheen This exploratory topic addressed the impacts on travel behavior of the automation of the transport of goods and people. Different CAV market penetration levels and policy contexts are likely to deeply affect public acceptance and mobility choices. Millonig and Shaheen introduced Scenario 1: CAVs on the Rise and how it reflects on travel behavior. In this scenario, CAV services cater to a wide assortment of mobility needs, with different vehicle sizes and models. The ease of use and limited cost of CAV services makes them very popular, and demand for traditional trans- port modes has been dramatically decreasing, prompt- ing severe cuts in public transport and the reduced use of nonmotorized modes. Despite the resulting increase
1 4 S O C I O E C O N O M I C I M P A C T S O F A U T O M A T E D A N D C O N N E C T E D V E H I C L E S in congestion, just about everyone is using CAVs, even for short trips, while mobility outside the urban core is almost entirely serviced by CAVs. Some reserved areas for pedestrians and microvehicles have been established in many cities, although retail activities have shrunk dra- matically as on-line shopping is the norm. Travel cost savings also drive an increase in the shared use of CAVs, despite some resistance arising from security concerns. Millonig and Shaheen discussed the implications of Scenario 1 on economics and workforce. They noted that the massive and wide-ranging take-up of CAVs is likely to spur the development of a variety of new business models, mostly from the private sector, which may in turn affect many professions in the transport sector (e.g., maintenance, traffic management). They remarked that the diversification and flexibility of CAV services will lead to increased individualization and personalization, thus offering new opportunities for start-ups, although the market may ultimately be dominated by a limited number of global actors. The overall implications on the labor market are yet largely unexplored. The coauthors observed that the development of a highly competitive transport market based on the massive advent of CAV services may induce radical changes in the definition of work, the quality of working environments, and the workâ life balance, possibly leading to growth in the number of precarious jobs. In addressing the equity implications of Scenario 1, Millonig and Shaheen noted that a new, largely CAV- based transportation system may have a negative impact on socioeconomic disparities, as privileged social groups are likely to receive higher priority on their trips while others may have to accept longer commute distances and times. This scenario may also have repercussions on peopleâs health and well-being, as physical exercise is reduced along with opportunities for social interaction. The coauthors remarked that while the CAV promise is to facilitate accessibility for all social groups, includ- ing nondrivers such as those who are elderly, children, and persons with disabilities, Scenario 1 could also have the opposite effect, in that profit-oriented private operators might discriminate between users according to their purchase power. Other road users may also be dis- criminated against. For instance, pedestrians and cyclists could be banned from specific zones, or their access to these zones restricted, in order to avoid hazardous inter- ferences with CAV fleets. On data access and privacy issues, Millonig and Shaheen cautioned against the risk that in Scenario 1, the less affluent may be induced to surrender their privacy as their personal data (e.g., itinerary and time of travel, accompanying persons) become a source of revenue if sold to commercial interests. A further risk arises from the potential emergence of discriminatory practices, as service providers may use personal data to ban specific groups or manipulate their behavior by imposing less- than-optimal routes. Overall, trust is a critical issue, and the coauthors noted that privacy-concerned citizens may find it challenging to protect their personal data and might subsequently reduce their travel altogether. To conclude Scenario 1, Millonig and Shaheen dis- cussed CAV implications on safety and security. They observed that ethical issues may arise under specific cir- cumstances, when, for instance, CAVs are programmed to decide who must be sacrificed in an unavoidable accident and whether economic worth is the guiding criterion. The coauthors argued that the perception of safety and security is also bound to affect the behavior of specific groups, such as women avoiding nighttime shared rides or people reducing their active mobility because walking and cycling are perceived as less safe. They observed that failures or malfunctions of the CAV system as the result of a cybersecurity breech were likely to affect groups like commuters and emergency workers more seriously, as they are more reliant on transporta- tion access. Millonig and Shaheen then introduced Scenario 2: CAVs Tamed by Policy and People and outlined its implications on travel behavior. This scenario is pri- marily driven by the vigorous enactment of ambitious climate and environmental goals, which translates into a decrease in traffic volumes and the subsequent rise of telework. It further entails radical changes in the production sector, making the most of emerging, trip- saving technologies such as automation and 3-D print- ing. Smaller, highly connected communities proliferate, where people concentrate most of their activities by working in local teleworking spaces and covering the majority of distances by walking or using shared bikes and microvehicles. Smaller passenger CAVs are primarily reserved for targeted services such as transporting per- sons with disabilities or feeding into larger hubs for mass transportation. The movement of goods, on the other hand, relies heavily on CAVs, as home deliveries prevail over traditional shopping. CAV services are largely oper- ated by the public sector, and privately owned CAVs are mainly a status symbol for a small elite. Millonig and Shaheen discussed possible impacts of Scenario 2 on economics and the workforce. They remarked that professions in the transport sector are also likely to be deeply affected in this scenario, as the auto- motive industry shifts its focus from private transport to community vehicles for special services and to smaller vehicles for goods transport. In addition, the automo- tive industry reorganizes production on a regional basis. New infrastructure could be needed to stimulate active modes, along with innovative products and servicesâto provide, for example walking aids using small robotsâ which may foster new businesses requiring new skills. The coauthors argued that the focus on regional and
P R E S E N T A T I O N O F E X P L O R A T O R Y T O P I C S 15 local economies is expected to improve job accessibility for several social groups, whereas the inherently limited working opportunities available at the local level might force other groups to move to find suitable employment opportunities. They noted that the rise of telework is expected to bring social benefits as flexibility in work- ing time increases, but that the risks of interference with oneâs private life may also be enhanced, thereby affecting workâlife balance and, ultimately, productivity. Commenting on the equity dimension of Scenario 2, Millonig and Shaheen noted that existing social dispari- ties might not disappear in this scenario and might even be exacerbated unless targeted regulation is enacted. They cautioned against the risk that living in local com- munities might reduce opportunities for social interac- tions with people outside the community, a trend that can easily breed intolerance and social instability. Millonig and Shaheen discussed data access and privacy issues arising from Scenario 2. As daily activi- ties are concentrated within a small spatial range, the boundaries between different aspects of life (work, fam- ily, leisure, community) can easily become blurred, and the handling of sensitive personal or professional data may suffer from unwitting negligence, affecting peopleâs privacy. The coauthors remarked that strong local com- munities, which can enhance the sense of security, can also breed a high level of social control and ultimately limit individual freedom if any movement of persons and goods could easily be learned by other community members, and this movement could be recorded. They noted that for efficiency reasons, regional/local compa- nies may be encouraged to combine the production of goods and the delivery of services in the region, thus gaining access to rich and comprehensive datasets on their customers. Addressing the fourth cross-cutting impact area of safety and security in Scenario 2, Millonig and Shaheen argued that the safety promise of CAVs can hardly be upheld in this scenario. CAVs have only achieved a limited market uptake, and local traffic is increasingly served by walking and cycling. Longer distances will most likely be much less traveled, and as a consequence, the availability of infrastructure and services to move large numbers of people and large amounts of goods may be significantly reduced, posing potentially serious problems if natural disasters or terrorist attacks require fast evacuations or the quick supply of goods. Problem Statements and Suggested Future Research The participants in the breakout groups identified prob- lem statements and knowledge gaps and discussed how these could translate in future joint EU-U.S. research on the behavioral changes arising from CAVSM. Par- ticipants noted that behavioral issues must be addressed with both an individual and a collective perspective and that trust in CAVSM services along with community and equity effects are crucial transversal concerns. A selec- tion of research ideas was presented in the closing ses- sion by the planning committee members responsible for the exploratory topics. In addition, the rapporteur reviewed notes from the breakout groups. The result is as follows: ⢠Assess productivity changes induced by CAVSM, investigate whether being able to work while travel- ing will benefit different groups equally (e.g., full-time versus gig economy workers), and whether produc- tivity changes will affect their workâlife balance. ⢠Explore how commuting travel behavior is affected by work/home location decisions that are in turn driven by the availability of CAVSM and identify possible incentives that employers could provide to influence positive social outcomes. ⢠Review professions that are directly or indirectly linked to transport, how they are likely to change or disappear with CAVSM, which new or revised jobs may emerge, and which education and (re)training programs and tools are required to facilitate the transition. ⢠Analyze the impact of CAVSM on the labor market as a whole and on macroeconomic performances, considering both direct impacts in the transport sec- tor and indirect impacts in sectors, such as manufac- turing, that are heavily affected by technologies that reduce travel demand effects, such as 3-D printing. ⢠Investigate how potential changes in travel behavior and travel time use might affect the nature and social role of communities and how undesired effects such as spatial mismatch or the virtualization of social interactions can be avoided through targeted policy measures that support community development. ⢠Identify public policies (and their spatial differentia- tion) that can help CAVSM in reducing inequalities for disadvantaged groups, avoid the creation of new ones, and guide the deployment of innovative transporta- tion services that leave no one behind. ⢠Research the nature and extent of the impacts of CAVSM on social inclusion and well-being, including potential risks of social isolation (from, for example, longer commutes), and on the propensity of users to take advantage of the opportunities for social inter- action offered by shared mobility and their overall response to the time and cost tradeoffs of traveling with others.
1 6 S O C I O E C O N O M I C I M P A C T S O F A U T O M A T E D A N D C O N N E C T E D V E H I C L E S ⢠Review and further develop data protection methods, tools, and guidance that can enable the public sector to identify data requirements for CAVSM-based transport operations, assess data quality and the ethics of third- party data collection and analysis, and identify data sets that must be kept under the public responsibility. ⢠Explore opportunities for devising regulation and market-based mechanisms to ensure that the private sector duly considers societal good while pursuing legitimate profits in operating CAVSM. ⢠Identify user requirements for personal data-handling practices that ensure transparency and enable usersâ control while fostering the public good by improv- ing network conditions, identifying safety risks, and encouraging safe travel behavior. ⢠Assess risks arising from potential data breaches and cybersecurity attacks and identify strategies and mea- sures to minimize negative impacts and increase trans- port system resilience. ⢠Investigate how safety and security risks are perceived across sociodemographic groups and how they influ- ence travel behavior. The discussion in the breakout groups raised a variety of supplementary issues that may enrich the design of future research programs. A short additional selection of possible research topics is as follows: ⢠Role of emerging businesses in a small community context; ⢠CAV transition speed in different scenarios, also con- sidering mixed traffic (CAVs and non-CAVs, active modes); ⢠New skills and education to address maintenance tasks; ⢠Limitations or bans on CAVs and their impacts on modal choice; ⢠Cultural differences and how they influence the per- ception of CAVSM and its safety; ⢠Second-level impacts of CAVSM on health and gender equality; ⢠CAVSMâs possible contribution to antidisplacement policies (e.g., to limit city gentrification); ⢠CAVSMâs possible contribution to curbing global industrialization trends; ⢠CAV-induced increases in mobility for groups with low travel demand; ⢠Cost-effectiveness and costâbenefit assessment frame- works for CAVSM systems, including all dimensions (economics, equity, safety and security); ⢠Risks of behavior manipulation resulting from machine learning based on willingness to pay; ⢠Potential behavioral changes of specific demographic groups to avoid being tracked or profiled; ⢠Secure methods to anonymize data with public trans- parency; and ⢠The role of Blockchain technology in building trust in CAVSM and protecting traveler privacy. Exploratory topic 4 What do stakEholdErs do? Matthew W. Daus and Satu Innamaa Daus and Innamaa introduced the fourth exploratory topic by remarking that the advent of CAVs is bound to influence a wide variety of stakeholders who are expected to react and contribute to molding policy and CAV frameworks. Stakeholders can be grouped in categories that include public and quasi-public entities, users and impacted nonusers, automakers, private mobility compa- nies, and technology companies. Each category is likely to react according to its role and interests, with public authorities devising regulation and determining the extent to which the market develops freely or enjoys subsidiza- tion, mobility service providers adjusting their workforce to account for the decreased need for drivers and the increased need of service developers, and all businesses enacting changes in job descriptions for drivers. Daus and Innamaa presented the main features of Scenario 1: CAVs on the Rise. In this scenario, regula- tors choose to offer minimal intervention for the pro- vision of mobility services. While this approach may result in a wider array of innovative private services, there is a risk that such services do not meet the needs of all segments of society and possibly lead to an increase in safety hazards. The transport system in this scenario primarily relies on private competing mobility services operating with privately owned AVs. The offering of public transport services is reduced, while CAV systems feature a rich assortment of traveler services, including infotainment, in-car working facilities, and parking ser- vices for private AVs. Discussing the economic and welfare issues arising from Scenario 1, Daus and Innamaa argued that the huge expected job losses among for-hire drivers and other mobility operators and the resulting increase in unem- ployment will most likely have negative repercussions on overall transport demand. They also noted that the massive advent of CAVs will lead to the emergence of new and innovative mobility services ecosystems, the main challenge being how to support innovations that create jobs that benefit from the diffusion of CAVs. Addressing the equity dimension, Daus and Innamaa observed that the private mobility services that largely
P R E S E N T A T I O N O F E X P L O R A T O R Y T O P I C S 17 prevail in Scenario 1 may not be affordable or accessible for all. This may be conducive to the introduction of dif- ferentiated levels of service where better quality is priced higher or to more discriminatory practices based on the selection of customers, or both. In a largely unregulated environment, mobility for special groups, such as those who are elderly and persons with disabilities, might be at risk. Commercial practices that lead to inequity increases may also emerge at regional levels, as service providers may focus on areas where profits are higher. Routing policies adopted by service providers then become criti- cal, as they may directly affect accessibility for specific groups (e.g., poor neighborhoods, persons with disabili- ties). The coauthors further noted that conflicts of inter- est may occur in the definition of an adequate balance of benefits between cities and the private sector. Daus and Innamaa reviewed the data access and pri- vacy implications of Scenario 1. Against the backdrop of a transport system that relies on the massive adop- tion of CAVs primarily operated by private companies, service providers will likely collect huge amounts of big data on the mobility of their customers, which could allow for systematic profiling practices. In this scenario, no anonymity or privacy guarantee will realistically be available to travelers, and no open data policy will likely be in place. On the other hand, service providers will be able to seize additional business opportunities by vend- ing data or information elaborated therefrom. It can be expected that cybersecurity services will bloom in this scenario to help offset the privacy threats associated with a largely unregulated transport system. To conclude the presentation of Scenario 1, Daus and Innamaa discussed its safety and security implica- tions. They observed that in a typical situation of mixed traffic, CAV users will in principle be better protected than other road users. However, this scenario features an overall rise in traffic volumes and in mileage, which is likely to increase exposure to crashes and, at the same time, decrease the safety of vulnerable users. The coau- thors also noted that driverless ridesourcing may com- promise security, or at least its perception. Scenario 2: CAVs Tamed by Policy was introduced. In this scenario, regulation is prescriptive over the introduc- tion of CAV-based mobility services. Daus and Innamaa argued that while stringent regulation is bound to impose constraints on innovation and therefore hinder or slow down the development of innovative transport services, such regulation is conducive to a more-defined vision of how these innovative services could achieve the ulti- mate goals of increasing safety and improving mobility for all. In Scenario 2 the transport system primarily relies on public transport, which includes demand-responsive and CAV-based mass transit services. The transportation system features well-functioning, possibly intermodal transport chains and benefits from publicâprivate collabo- ration with targeted subsidies ensuring a minimum level of mobility services for all. Private CAVs are part of the sys- tem, but are expensive and heavily taxed. Services available to CAV travelers include multimodal mobility, first mileâ last mile, intelligent journey planners, and infotainment. Daus and Innamaa discussed the implications of Sce- nario 2 on economics and welfare. Although at a slower and more deliberate pace than in Scenario 1, significant changes in the workforce will most likely take place, with a decrease in for-hire drivers, and an increase in the personnel needed to develop and operate CAV-based public transport services and the associated information resources. Public/private collaboration could ease the financial and welfare burden arising from job losses and help to better identify and enact education and training programs that meet the new skills requirements. Public transport operators will need to adequately prepare for significant changes in their cost structure. Addressing social equity issues arising from Scenario 2, Daus and Innamaa argued that it might be easier to guar- antee basic transport services to all people in all regions, while additional services will be offered at a price. This notwithstanding, the difference in mobility between the affluent and the rest of society is likely to remain signifi- cant. Public subsidies, which play an important role in this scenario, will need to be carefully assessed against their potential impacts in the short and long term. The coauthors then reviewed the data access and pri- vacy dimension. They noted that in this scenario, where public CAVs prevail, mobility data are owned by public authorities, which makes it possible to ensure the ano- nymity and privacy of travelers for at least some public services, while user identification might be inevitable for others. All in all, this scenario offers a much greater potential for open data. Daus and Innamaa finally commented on the safety and security implications of Scenario 2. They argued that smaller traffic volumes, at least in terms of the number of vehicles, are likely to reduce exposure to crashes and, therefore, the associated crash risk for all users, includ- ing the most vulnerable. On the other hand, driverless public transport rides may be perceived as less safe by many travelers. Problem Statements and Suggested Future Research The participants in the breakout groups identified prob- lem statements and knowledge gaps and discussed how these could translate in future joint EU-U.S. research on the role and attitude of stakeholders engaged in the CAVSM transition. Participants remarked that the transportation ecosystem is expanding with CAVs, and the number of stakeholders involved is thus proliferat- ing. Not surprisingly, many emerging research priori- ties involve shifting concepts of ownership, control, and responsibility. In the perspective of EU-U.S. cooperation,
1 8 S O C I O E C O N O M I C I M P A C T S O F A U T O M A T E D A N D C O N N E C T E D V E H I C L E S the participants further noted that more commonalities exist on the cross-cutting issues of economics and welfare and of safety and security than on equity and data access and privacy. A selection of research ideas was presented in the closing session by the planning committee mem- bers responsible for the exploratory topics. In addition, the rapporteur reviewed notes from the breakout groups. The research ideas are summarized in the following list. ⢠Assess the extent of potential revenue losses and gains due to the advent of CAVs for government and other stakeholders alike, and investigate alternative revenue sources to compensate for government revenue losses. ⢠Identify intangible benefits arising from CAVSM, such as productivity increases and enhanced quality of travel, and devise methods to estimate/quantify them. ⢠Investigate the possible reactions of various stake- holders to job losses and reclassification, building on lessons learned from comparable automation-driven transitions. ⢠Devise models for partnership and collaborationâ along with their performance measuresâthat can ensure a smooth transition from large-scale traditional public transit to an ecosystem of multiple smaller and largely private mobility operators. ⢠Establish best practices and new paradigms for long- term and short-term planning to support government agenciesâ planning capabilities, considering the uncer- tainty of CAV impacts for various stakeholders. ⢠Explore the scope and effectiveness of possible regula- tion and market-based mechanisms (e.g., subsidies) to provide minimum mobility services for all. ⢠Investigate the equity implications of CAVs for vari- ous stakeholders with equity concerns (e.g., age, abil- ity, race/ethnicity, place, income) and identify the need for regulation, subsidies, and PPPs. ⢠Design and validate effective approaches and tech- niques to foster collaborative stakeholdersâ involve- ment in addressing the equity implications of CAVs. ⢠Define feasible business models, service concepts, and partnerships among various stakeholders to address barriers and opportunities in the provision of CAV mobility services for older adults. ⢠Identify inequities among mobility service stakeholders, whether in economics (e.g., subsidies) or regulation, in order to ensure a fair playing field among providers. ⢠Collect and organize high-quality systematic and con- sistent accident data covering large regions to support CAV-related research, development, and establishment of effective roadworthiness testing procedures. ⢠Investigate the relative value of CAV data to different stakeholders in relation to their use and assess con- sumer awareness of data value and public acceptance of their use. ⢠Appraise specific data requirements to support research on the socioeconomic impacts of CAVSM, possible data sources, and privacy issues. ⢠Review the existing process of driver training on safety issues (e.g., use of simulators, driving license, emer- gency procedures), and identify necessary changes to ensure safe CAV operation. ⢠Design and establish the safety assessment process for CAVs with the support of original equipment manu- facturers, public safety validators, and insurance com- panies, including the identification of specific criteria and methods for assessing roadworthiness. ⢠Assess the cybersecurity risks and requirements of CAVs and develop best-practice solutions or a code of conduct assigning responsibilities among various stakeholders, or both. ⢠Investigate consumersâ mental models on CAV tech- nology, its performance, and use/misuse, to better understand the potential risk of misuse. ⢠Establish a body of regulation for unaccompanied minors in shared mobility CAVs. ⢠Investigate issues arising from the tele-operation of privately owned, fully automated CAVs to define responsibilities and establish the required protocol for tele-interventions. ⢠Explore the risks of driverless trucks for the security of goods on board and the means for different stake- holders to overcome the risks. The discussion in the breakout groups developed a variety of supplementary issues that may enrich the design of future research programs. Additional possible research topics are as follows: ⢠Role of unions and union politics in CAV transition, ⢠Persistence of emotional attachment to owned cars as traditional cars are replaced by CAVs, ⢠Minimizing empty CAV rides, ⢠Redesign of traffic management for new CAV mobil- ity services, ⢠Scalability and replicability of successful CAV services, ⢠Value creation of (combining) data and dependence on the extent to which data are or can be shared, and ⢠Trade-offs between safety and security.
