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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Exploring Lessons Learned from a Century of Outbreaks: Readiness for 2030: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25391.
×

Exploring Lessons Learned from
a Century of Outbreaks

READINESS FOR 2030

PROCEEDINGS OF A WORKSHOP

V. Ayano Ogawa, Cecilia Mundaca Shah,
and Anna Nicholson, Rapporteurs

Forum on Microbial Threats

Board on Global Health

Health and Medicine Division

images

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, DC
www.nap.edu

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Exploring Lessons Learned from a Century of Outbreaks: Readiness for 2030: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25391.
×

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001

This activity was supported by contracts between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases/National Institutes of Health (10003226), Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences (10003626), U.S. Agency for International Development, U.S. Army Medical Research and Materiel Command (10001249), U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (10002642), U.S. Department of Homeland Security (10003591), U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (10003353), and U.S. Food and Drug Administration (10002125) and by the American Society for Microbiology, EcoHealth Alliance, Infectious Diseases Society of America, Johnson & Johnson (10003710), Merck Co., Inc., Sanofi Pasteur, and The University of Hong Kong. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project.

International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-49032-0
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-49032-4
Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/25391

Additional copies of this publication are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu.

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Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Exploring lessons learned from a century of outbreaks: Readiness for 2030: Proceedings of a workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: https://doi.org/10.17226/25391.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Exploring Lessons Learned from a Century of Outbreaks: Readiness for 2030: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25391.
×

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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Exploring Lessons Learned from a Century of Outbreaks: Readiness for 2030: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25391.
×

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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Exploring Lessons Learned from a Century of Outbreaks: Readiness for 2030: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25391.
×

PLANNING COMMITTEE ON EXPLORING LESSONS LEARNED FROM A CENTURY OF OUTBREAKS: READINESS FOR 20301

KEIJI FUKUDA (Chair), Director and Clinical Professor, School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong

DENNIS CARROLL, Director, Global Health Security and Development Unit, U.S. Agency for International Development

PETER DASZAK, President, EcoHealth Alliance

EMILY ERBELDING, Director, Division of Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, U.S. National Institutes of Health

JENNIFER L. GARDY, Senior Scientist, British Columbia Centre for Disease Control; Associate Professor, School of Population and Public Health, University of British Columbia, Canada

KAREN GROSSER, Former Vice President, Development, Infectious Disease, and Vaccine Therapeutic Area, Formerly Johnson & Johnson

ELIZABETH D. HERMSEN, Head, Global Antimicrobial Stewardship, Merck & Co., Inc.

DANIEL B. JERNIGAN, Director, Influenza Division, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

KENT E. KESTER, Vice President and Head, Translational Science and Biomarkers, Sanofi Pasteur

JONNA A. K. MAZET, Professor of Epidemiology and Disease Ecology; Executive Director, One Health Institute, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis

SUERIE MOON, Director of Research, Global Health Centre, The Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva

DAVID NABARRO, Advisor, Health and Sustainability, 4SD—Skills, Systems, and Synergies for Sustainable Development

KUMANAN RASANATHAN, Board Member, Health Systems Global

PETER A. SANDS, Executive Director, The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria

JAY P. SIEGEL, Retired Chief Biotechnology Officer and Head of Scientific Strategy and Policy, Johnson & Johnson

___________________

1 The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine’s planning committees are solely responsible for organizing the workshop, identifying topics, and choosing speakers. The responsibility for the published Proceedings of a Workshop rests with the workshop rapporteurs and the institution.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Exploring Lessons Learned from a Century of Outbreaks: Readiness for 2030: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25391.
×

Health and Medicine Division Staff

CECILIA MUNDACA SHAH, Director, Forum on Microbial Threats, Board on Global Health

V. AYANO OGAWA, Program Officer, Board on Global Health

T. ANH TRAN, Research Assistant, Board on Global Health

JULIE PAVLIN, Director, Board on Global Health

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Exploring Lessons Learned from a Century of Outbreaks: Readiness for 2030: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25391.
×

FORUM ON MICROBIAL THREATS1

PETER DASZAK (Chair), President, EcoHealth Alliance

KENT E. KESTER (Vice Chair), Vice President and Head, Translational Science and Biomarkers, Sanofi Pasteur

MARY E. WILSON (Vice Chair), Clinical Professor of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco

KEVIN ANDERSON, Senior Program Manager, Science and Technology Directorate, U.S. Department of Homeland Security

TIMOTHY BURGESS, Director, Infectious Disease Clinical Research Program, Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences

DENNIS CARROLL, Director, Global Health Security and Development Unit, U.S. Agency for International Development

EMILY ERBELDING, Deputy Director, Division of AIDS, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, U.S. National Institutes of Health

MARCOS A. ESPINAL, Director, Communicable Diseases and Health Analysis, Pan American Health Organization

KEIJI FUKUDA, Director and Clinical Professor, School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong

JENNIFER GARDY, Senior Scientist, British Columbia Centre for Disease Control; Associate Professor, School of Population and Public Health, University of British Columbia, Canada

JESSE L. GOODMAN, Professor of Medicine and Infectious Diseases; Director, Center on Medical Product Access, Safety, and Stewardship, Georgetown University

EVA HARRIS, Professor, Division of Infectious Diseases and Vaccinology, University of California, Berkeley

CAROLINE S. HARWOOD, Gerald and Lyn Grinstein Professor of Microbiology, University of Washington

ELIZABETH D. HERMSEN, Head, Global Antimicrobial Stewardship, Merck & Co., Inc.

RIMA F. KHABBAZ, Deputy Director for Infectious Diseases; Director of Office of Infectious Diseases, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

MICHAEL MAIR, Acting Director, Office of Counterterrorism and Emerging Threats, U.S. Food and Drug Administration

___________________

1 The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine’s forums and roundtables do not issue, review, or approve individual documents. The responsibility for the published Proceedings of a Workshop rests with the workshop rapporteurs and the institution.

Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Exploring Lessons Learned from a Century of Outbreaks: Readiness for 2030: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25391.
×

JONNA A. K. MAZET, Professor of Epidemiology and Disease Ecology; Executive Director, One Health Institute, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis

SALLY A. MILLER, Professor of Plant Pathology and State Extension Specialist for Vegetable Pathology, Ohio Agricultural Research and Development Center, The Ohio State University

SUERIE MOON, Director of Research, Global Health Centre, The Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva

DAVID NABARRO, Advisor, Health and Sustainability, 4SD—Skills, Systems, and Synergies for Sustainable Development

RAFAEL OBREGON, Chief of Communication for Development, United Nations Children’s Fund

KUMANAN RASANATHAN, Board Member, Health Systems Global

GARY A. ROSELLE, Chief of Medical Service, Veterans Affairs Medical Center; Director, National Infectious Disease Services, Veterans Health Administration

PETER A. SANDS, Executive Director, The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria

THOMAS W. SCOTT, Distinguished Professor, Department of Entomology and Nematology, University of California, Davis

JAY P. SIEGEL, Retired Chief Biotechnology Officer and Head of Scientific Strategy and Policy, Johnson & Johnson

PAIGE E. WATERMAN, Lieutenant Colonel, U.S. Army; Director, Translational Medicine Branch, Walter Reed Army Institute of Research

MATTHEW ZAHN, Medical Director, Division of Epidemiology and Assessment, Orange County Health Care Agency

National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff

CECILIA MUNDACA SHAH, Director, Forum on Microbial Threats, Board on Global Health

V. AYANO OGAWA, Program Officer, Board on Global Health

T. ANH TRAN, Research Assistant, Board on Global Health (until March 2019)

NATALIE LUBIN, Research Assistant, Board on Global Health (from March 2019)

JULIE PAVLIN, Director, Board on Global Health

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Exploring Lessons Learned from a Century of Outbreaks: Readiness for 2030: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25391.
×

Reviewers

This Proceedings of a Workshop was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published proceedings as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the process.

We thank the following individuals for their review of this proceedings:

Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the content of the proceedings nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this proceedings was overseen by DAVID R. CHALLONER, University of Florida. He was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this proceedings was carried out in accordance with standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the rapporteurs and the National Academies.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Exploring Lessons Learned from a Century of Outbreaks: Readiness for 2030: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25391.
×

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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Exploring Lessons Learned from a Century of Outbreaks: Readiness for 2030: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25391.
×

Acknowledgments

The Forum on Microbial Threats staff and planning committee of the workshop deeply appreciate the many valuable contributions from individuals who assisted us with this project. Thank you to Nancy Cox, Lawrence Gostin, Gabriel Leung, and David Relman for their input during the planning of the pre-workshop event, as well as Elvis Garcia and Liana Rosenkrantz Woskie for authoring the commissioned paper. The pre-workshop, workshop, and this proceedings would not be possible without the presenters and discussants, who gave so generously of their time and expertise. A full list of the speakers and moderators from both events and their biographical information may be found in Appendix E.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Exploring Lessons Learned from a Century of Outbreaks: Readiness for 2030: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25391.
×

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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Exploring Lessons Learned from a Century of Outbreaks: Readiness for 2030: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25391.
×
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Exploring Lessons Learned from a Century of Outbreaks: Readiness for 2030: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25391.
×

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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Exploring Lessons Learned from a Century of Outbreaks: Readiness for 2030: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25391.
×

Acronyms and Abbreviations

AAAS American Association for the Advancement of Science
APHA American Public Health Association
ASPR Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response
BARDA Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority
CBER Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research
CDC U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
CEPI Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations
CoV coronavirus
CVV candidate vaccine virus
FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
FBI Federal Bureau of Investigation
FEMA U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency
GDP gross domestic product
GHSA Global Health Security Agenda
GISN Global Influenza Surveillance Network
GISRS Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System
GLASS Global Antimicrobial Surveillance System
GOARN Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network
GPMB Global Pandemic Monitoring Board
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Exploring Lessons Learned from a Century of Outbreaks: Readiness for 2030: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25391.
×
HA hemagglutinin
HHS U.S. Department of Health and Human Services
IHR International Health Regulations
IPAPI International Partnership for Avian and Pandemic Influenza
IRAT Influenza Risk Assessment Tool
IVPP influenza viruses with pandemic potential
JEE Joint External Evaluation
MERS Middle East respiratory syndrome
NA neuraminidase
NIAID National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases
NPI nonpharmaceutical intervention
NVPO National Vaccine Reporting Office
OIE World Organisation for Animal Health
PAHO Pan American Health Organization
PIP Pandemic Influenza Preparedness
SARS severe acute respiratory syndrome
SDG Sustainable Development Goal
UN United Nations
USDA U.S. Department of Agriculture
WHO World Health Organization
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Exploring Lessons Learned from a Century of Outbreaks: Readiness for 2030: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25391.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Exploring Lessons Learned from a Century of Outbreaks: Readiness for 2030: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25391.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Exploring Lessons Learned from a Century of Outbreaks: Readiness for 2030: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25391.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Exploring Lessons Learned from a Century of Outbreaks: Readiness for 2030: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25391.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Exploring Lessons Learned from a Century of Outbreaks: Readiness for 2030: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25391.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Exploring Lessons Learned from a Century of Outbreaks: Readiness for 2030: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25391.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Exploring Lessons Learned from a Century of Outbreaks: Readiness for 2030: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25391.
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Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Exploring Lessons Learned from a Century of Outbreaks: Readiness for 2030: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25391.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Exploring Lessons Learned from a Century of Outbreaks: Readiness for 2030: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25391.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Exploring Lessons Learned from a Century of Outbreaks: Readiness for 2030: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25391.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Exploring Lessons Learned from a Century of Outbreaks: Readiness for 2030: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25391.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Exploring Lessons Learned from a Century of Outbreaks: Readiness for 2030: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25391.
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Page xiii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Exploring Lessons Learned from a Century of Outbreaks: Readiness for 2030: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25391.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Exploring Lessons Learned from a Century of Outbreaks: Readiness for 2030: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25391.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Exploring Lessons Learned from a Century of Outbreaks: Readiness for 2030: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25391.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Exploring Lessons Learned from a Century of Outbreaks: Readiness for 2030: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25391.
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Page xvii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Exploring Lessons Learned from a Century of Outbreaks: Readiness for 2030: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25391.
×
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Page xviii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Exploring Lessons Learned from a Century of Outbreaks: Readiness for 2030: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25391.
×
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Exploring Lessons Learned from a Century of Outbreaks: Readiness for 2030: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25391.
×
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Exploring Lessons Learned from a Century of Outbreaks: Readiness for 2030: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25391.
×
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In November 2018, an ad hoc planning committee at the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine planned two sister workshops held in Washington, DC, to examine the lessons from influenza pandemics and other major outbreaks, understand the extent to which the lessons have been learned, and discuss how they could be applied further to ensure that countries are sufficiently ready for future pandemics. This publication summarizes the presentations and discussions from both workshops.

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