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A I R P O R T C O O P E R A T I V E R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M ACRP RESEARCH REPORT 194 2019 Research sponsored by the Federal Aviation Administration Subscriber Categories Aviation â¢ Economics Using Disaggregated Socioeconomic Data in Air Passenger Demand Studies David Ballard GRA, IncoRpoRAted Jenkintown, PA Laurie A. Garrow AtlAntA AnAlytIcs, llc Atlanta, GA Geoffrey D. Gosling AvIAtIon system consultInG, llc Berkeley, CA
AIRPORT COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM Airports are vital national resources. They serve a key role in trans- portation of people and goods and in regional, national, and interna- tional commerce. They are where the nationâs aviation system connects with other modes of transportation and where federal responsibility for managing and regulating air traffic operations intersects with the role of state and local governments that own and operate most airports. Research is necessary to solve common operating problems, to adapt appropriate new technologies from other industries, and to introduce innovations into the airport industry. The Airport Cooperative Research Program (ACRP) serves as one of the principal means by which the airport industry can develop innovative near-term solutions to meet demands placed on it. The need for ACRP was identified in TRB Special Report 272: Airport Research Needs: Cooperative Solutions in 2003, based on a study spon- sored by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). ACRP carries out applied research on problems that are shared by airport operating agen- cies and not being adequately addressed by existing federal research programs. ACRP is modeled after the successful National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) and Transit Cooperative Research Program (TCRP). ACRP undertakes research and other technical activi- ties in various airport subject areas, including design, construction, legal, maintenance, operations, safety, policy, planning, human resources, and administration. ACRP provides a forum where airport operators can cooperatively address common operational problems. ACRP was authorized in December 2003 as part of the Vision 100â Century of Aviation Reauthorization Act. The primary participants in the ACRP are (1) an independent governing board, the ACRP Oversight Committee (AOC), appointed by the Secretary of the U.S. Department of Transportation with representation from airport operating agencies, other stakeholders, and relevant industry organizations such as the Airports Council International-North America (ACI-NA), the American Associa- tion of Airport Executives (AAAE), the National Association of State Aviation Officials (NASAO), Airlines for America (A4A), and the Airport Consultants Council (ACC) as vital links to the airport community; (2) TRB as program manager and secretariat for the governing board; and (3) the FAA as program sponsor. In October 2005, the FAA executed a contract with the National Academy of Sciences formally initiating the program. ACRP benefits from the cooperation and participation of airport professionals, air carriers, shippers, state and local government officials, equipment and service suppliers, other airport users, and research organi- zations. Each of these participants has different interests and responsibili- ties, and each is an integral part of this cooperative research effort. Research problem statements for ACRP are solicited periodically but may be submitted to TRB by anyone at any time. It is the responsibility of the AOC to formulate the research program by identifying the highest priority projects and defining funding levels and expected products. Once selected, each ACRP project is assigned to an expert panel appointed by TRB. Panels include experienced practitioners and research specialists; heavy emphasis is placed on including airport professionals, the intended users of the research products. The panels prepare project statements (requests for proposals), select contractors, and provide technical guidance and counsel throughout the life of the project. The process for developing research problem statements and selecting research agencies has been used by TRB in managing coop- erative research programs since 1962. As in other TRB activities, ACRP project panels serve voluntarily without compensation. Primary emphasis is placed on disseminating ACRP results to the intended users of the research: airport operating agencies, service pro- viders, and academic institutions. ACRP produces a series of research reports for use by airport operators, local agencies, the FAA, and other interested parties; industry associations may arrange for workshops, training aids, field visits, webinars, and other activities to ensure that results are implemented by airport industry practitioners. ACRP RESEARCH REPORT 194 Project 03-36 ISSN 2572-3731 (Print) ISSN 2572-374X (Online) ISBN 978-0-309-48015-4 Library of Congress Control Number 2019933747 Â© 2019 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. COPYRIGHT INFORMATION Authors herein are responsible for the authenticity of their materials and for obtaining written permissions from publishers or persons who own the copyright to any previously published or copyrighted material used herein. Cooperative Research Programs (CRP) grants permission to reproduce material in this publication for classroom and not-for-profit purposes. Permission is given with the understanding that none of the material will be used to imply TRB, AASHTO, FAA, FHWA, FMCSA, FRA, FTA, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Research and Technology, PHMSA, or TDC endorsement of a particular product, method, or practice. It is expected that those reproducing the material in this document for educational and not-for-profit uses will give appropriate acknowledgment of the source of any reprinted or reproduced material. For other uses of the material, request permission from CRP. NOTICE The research report was reviewed by the technical panel and accepted for publication according to procedures established and overseen by the Transportation Research Board and approved by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. The opinions and conclusions expressed or implied in this report are those of the researchers who performed the research and are not necessarily those of the Transportation Research Board; the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine; or the program sponsors. The Transportation Research Board; the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine; and the sponsors of the Airport Cooperative Research Program do not endorse products or manufacturers. Trade or manufacturersâ names appear herein solely because they are considered essential to the object of the report. Published research reports of the AIRPORT COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM are available from Transportation Research Board Business Office 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 and can be ordered through the Internet by going to http://www.national-academies.org and then searching for TRB Printed in the United States of America
The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, non- governmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., is president. The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president. The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The National Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine. Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.national-academies.org. The Transportation Research Board is one of seven major programs of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. The mission of the Transportation Research Board is to increase the benefits that transportation contributes to society by providing leadership in transportation innovation and progress through research and information exchange, conducted within a setting that is objective, interdisciplinary, and multimodal. The Boardâs varied committees, task forces, and panels annually engage about 7,000 engineers, scientists, and other transportation researchers and practitioners from the public and private sectors and academia, all of whom contribute their expertise in the public interest. The program is supported by state transportation departments, federal agencies including the component administrations of the U.S. Department of Transportation, and other organizations and individuals interested in the development of transportation. Learn more about the Transportation Research Board at www.TRB.org.
C O O P E R A T I V E R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M S CRP STAFF FOR ACRP RESEARCH REPORT 194 Christopher J. Hedges, Director, Cooperative Research Programs Lori L. Sundstrom, Deputy Director, Cooperative Research Programs Marci A. Greenberger, Acting Manager, Airport Cooperative Research Program Joseph D. Navarrete, Senior Program Officer Hana Vagnerova, Senior Program Assistant Eileen P. Delaney, Director of Publications Natalie Barnes, Associate Director of Publications Margaret B. Hagood, Senior Editor ACRP PROJECT 03-36 PANEL Field of Policy and Planning Daniel Meier, Allegiant Air, LLC, Las Vegas, NV (Chair) Arturo Bujanda, Mercator International LLC, Kirkand, WA David Franson, The Boeing Company, Seattle, WA Elizabeth K. Jaedicke, Vanasse Hangen Brustlin, Inc., Arlington, MA Andrew W. Tron, Greater Toronto Airports Authority, Toronto AMF, ON Matthew Van Valkenburgh, Killeen Fort Hood Regional Airport, Killeen, TX Michael Lawrance, FAA Liaison Jennifer L. Weeks, TRB Liaison
ACRP Research Report 194 explores the potential benefits of using disaggregated socio- economic data, such as regional household income distributions and air passenger and travel survey data, for air passenger demand studies. The report will be of particular interest to airport industry practitioners who prepare activity forecasts, marketing studies, and studies related to air service development, as well as to researchers studying air passenger demand. Aviation demand is strongly correlated to socioeconomic activity, and analysts typi- cally use aggregate socioeconomic data, such as gross regional product or average regional household income, to better understand current and potential future aviation demand. Because the United States is experiencing significant and ongoing demographic trends, such as an aging population, increased immigration, wealth concentration, geographic redistribution, and changing trends in the use of discretionary income, there is a question as to whether traditional methods and data sources will adequately capture these trends or would more detailed, disaggregated socioeconomic data, or even nontraditional data (such as credit card transactions and cell phone data), provide more accurate results. Research was needed, therefore, to identify and summarize these long-term socioeconomic trends, understand their potential impact, and provide guidance for incorporating disaggregated socio economic data into air passenger demand studies. The research, led by GRA, Incorporated, began with a review of studies and models to assess the current understanding of the relationship between socioeconomic factors and air passenger demand. The research team identified sources of disaggregated socioeconomic data that are typically correlated with air travel propensity. It then conducted a set of case studies to test the effectiveness of using disaggregated socioeconomic variables in traditional air passenger enplanement models; this effort considered both simple models and more complex models that used a wider range of variables. The research also identified new, nontraditional data, including cell phone data and credit card transaction data, and explored whether the latter might be useful for modeling air passenger behavior. The cost of using disaggregated socioeconomic data was also examined. Lastly, the team identified areas for further research. Because subsets of the population have different air travel propensities, as documented in the research, it is clear that gaining a better understanding of the effect of socioeconomic trends should improve air travel demand analysis. Yet the research obtained mixed results from the use of disaggregated socioeconomic data in traditional air passenger models, with the benefit more clearly seen when more complex models were used. Future research could explore alternative modeling approaches that might take better advantage of disaggregated data. The research also found that, while nontraditional data sources are increasingly avail- able, there remain significant limitations to employing them in air travel demand studies. F O R E W O R D By Joseph D. Navarrete Staff Officer Transportation Research Board
1 Summary 1 Research Results 3 Research Opportunities 4 Chapter 1 Introduction 8 Chapter 2 Survey of Past Analyses of Air Passenger Demand 8 Academic, Government, and Industry Studies 13 ACRP Reports and Other ACRP Documents 15 Surveys and Studies of Traveler Behavior and Choice 16 Air Passenger Demand Studies by Airports 23 Summary and Conclusions 25 Chapter 3 Sources of Disaggregated Socioeconomic Data 26 Availability of Disaggregated Socioeconomic Data 28 Socioeconomic Trends 31 Analysis of Air Passenger and Travel Survey Data 63 Summary and Conclusions 64 Summary and Implications for Air Passenger Demand Studies 67 Chapter 4 Case Studies in Modeling Airport Passenger Enplanements Using Disaggregated Socioeconomic Data 67 Case Study Airport Selection 68 Specifying Simple Models for Airport Enplanements 70 Case Study Model Estimation Results and Model Performance 89 More Detailed Analysis of the BaltimoreâWashington Region 96 Analysis of Case Study Results 100 Chapter 5 Other Approaches to the Use of Disaggregated Socioeconomic Data in Air Passenger Demand Analysis 100 New Forms of Disaggregated Socioeconomic Data for Passenger Demand Analysis 105 Approaches to Air Passenger Demand Model Specification 111 Chapter 6 Final Perspectives and Future Research Opportunities 112 Summary of Research Approach 113 Summary of Findings from Research 113 Future Research Opportunities 116 Conclusions C O N T E N T S
119 References 122 Abbreviations 124 Appendices Note: Photographs, figures, and tables in this report may have been converted from color to grayscale for printing. The electronic version of the report (posted on the web at www.trb.org) retains the color versions.