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2017-2018 ASSESSMENT OF THE ARMY RESEARCH LABORATORY Army Research Laboratory Technical Assessment Board Laboratory Assessments Board Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences A Consensus Study Report of
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS â 500 Fifth Street, NW â Washington, DC 20001 This activity was supported by Contract No. W911QX-14-C-0039 from the Army Research Laboratory. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-49154-9 International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-49154-1 Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/25419 Additional copies of this report are available for sale from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2019 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. 2017-2018 Assess- ment of the Army Research Laboratory. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi. org/10.17226/25419.
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ARMY RESEARCH LABORATORY TECHNICAL ASSESSMENT BOARD JENNIE S. HWANG, NAE,1 H-Technologies Group, Chair FREDERICK R. CHANG, NAE, Southern Methodist University MARK EBERHART, Colorado School of Mines GEORGE (RUSTY) T. GRAY III, NAE, Los Alamos National Laboratory PRABHAT HAJELA, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute WESLEY L. HARRIS, NAE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology WILLIAM S. MARRAS, NAE, Ohio State University ALAN NEEDLEMAN, NAE, Texas A&M University DANIEL A. REED, University of Utah Staff AZEB GETACHEW, Senior Program Assistant EVA LABRE, Administrative Coordinator JAMES P. McGEE, Director ARUL MOZHI, Senior Program Officer PANEL ON ASSESSMENT AND ANALYSIS AT THE ARMY RESEARCH LABORATORY ALAN NEEDLEMAN, NAE, Texas A&M University, Chair JULIE A. ADAMS, Oregon State University JAMES P. BAGIAN, NAE/NAM,2 University of Michigan CAMERON R. (DALE) BASS, Duke University JOHN M. CAVANAUGH, Wayne State University ELLIOT L. CHAIKOF, NAM, Harvard Medical School J. GARY EDEN, NAE, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign LESTER A. FOSTER III, Electronic Warfare Associates TERRY P. LEWIS, Booz Allen Hamilton STEVEN B. LIPNER, NAE, SAFECode ERIC T. MATSON, Purdue University STEPHEN C. MERRIMAN, S.C. Merriman Consulting, LLC; Boeing Associate Technical Fellow (retired) KYRAN D. MISH, Sandia National Laboratories JAMES F. OâBRYON, Department of Defense (retired); The OâBryon Group FREDERICK P. RIVARA, NAM, University of Washington School of Medicine ALBERT A. SCIARRETTA, CNS Technologies, Inc. FRANK J. SERNA, Charles Stark Draper Laboratory JILL H. SMITH, U.S. Army Communications-Electronics RDE Center (retired); Executive Consultant SALVATORE J. STOLFO, Columbia University JAMES J. STREILEIN, MITRE DANIEL S. WALLACH, Rice University 1 Member, National Academy of Engineering. 2 Member, National Academy of Medicine. v
PANEL ON BALLISTICS SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING AT THE ARMY RESEARCH LABORATORY GEORGE (RUSTY) T. GRAY III, NAE, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Chair CHARLES E. ANDERSON, JR., CEA Consulting ELLEN M. ARRUDA, NAE, University of Michigan MELVIN R. BAER, Sandia National Laboratories (retired) ROMESH C. BATRA, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University JAMES A. COOPER, JR., Musculoskeletal and Translational Tissue Engineering Research (MATTER) MARCIA A. COOPER, Sandia National Laboratories ROGER GHANEM, University of Southern California ZELDA GILLS, Lockheed Martin Aeronautics Company MICHAEL JAFFE, New Jersey Institute of Technology JERRY A. KRILL, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory ALLAN T. MENSE, Raytheon Missile Systems RICHARD B. MILES, NAE, Texas A&M University MICHELLE L. PANTOYA, Texas Tech University C. KUMAR N. PATEL, NAS3/NAE, Pranalytica, Inc. DONALD PROSNITZ, Consultant FRANK J. SERNA, Charles Stark Draper Laboratory LESLIE E. SMITH, National Institute of Standards and Technology (retired) STEVEN F. SON, Purdue University GHATU SUBHASH, University of Florida STEPHEN D. TSE, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey PANEL ON COMPUTATIONAL SCIENCES AT THE ARMY RESEARCH LABORATORY DANIEL A. REED, University of Utah, Chair TILAK AGERWALA, IBM (retired); TKMA Consulting, LLC RALPH C. ALDREDGE III, University of California, Davis WILLIAM D. GROPP, NAE, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign JAMES T. KAJIYA, NAE, Microsoft Corporation (retired); Tolt Machine Works, Inc. GEORGE KARYPIS, University of Minnesota PETER M. KOGGE, University of Notre Dame VIPIN KUMAR, University of Minnesota JAMES L. McCLELLAND, NAS, Stanford University KYRAN D. MISH, Sandia National Laboratories LINDA A. NESS, Independent Consultant KALYAN PERUMALLA, Oak Ridge National Laboratory PADMA RAGHAVAN, Vanderbilt University GUY LEWIS STEELE, JR., NAE, Oracle Labs 3 Member, National Academy of Sciences. vi
PANEL ON HUMAN FACTORS SCIENCE AT THE ARMY RESEARCH LABORATORY WILLIAM S. MARRAS, NAE, Ohio State University, Chair FREDERICK R. CHANG, NAE, Southern Methodist University LORRIE FAITH CRANOR, Carnegie Mellon University CHARLES A. CZEISLER, NAM, Harvard Medical School BARBARA A. DOSHER, NAS, University of California, Irvine JEANNE F. DUFFY, Harvard Medical School; Brigham and Womenâs Hospital DAVID J. HEEGER, NAS, New York University WILLIAM W. LYTTON, SUNY Downstate Medical Center KATHERINE L. MORSE, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory SHRIKANTH (SHRI) S. NARAYANAN, University of Southern California STEPHEN F. SANDS, Sands Research, Inc. ANITA WILLIAMS WOOLLEY, Carnegie Mellon University PANEL ON INFORMATION SCIENCE AT THE ARMY RESEARCH LABORATORY PRABHAT HAJELA, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Chair JOHN M.M. ANDERSON, Howard University JEAN M. ANDINO, Arizona State University DAVID W. AUCSMITH, Aucsmith Consulting, LLC ELLEN J. BASS, Drexel University PETER A. BELING, University of Virginia KATHLEEN M. CARLEY, Carnegie Mellon University FREDERICK R. CHANG, NAE, Southern Methodist University EDWARD F. CRAWLEY, NAE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology MARK E. DAVIS, Medavis Consulting SUSAN T. DUMAIS, NAE, Microsoft Research JONATHAN GRUDIN, Microsoft Research VERLIN B. HINSZ, North Dakota State University JOHN M. LANICCI, Independent Atmospheric and Climate Science Consultant GUY M. LOHMAN, IBM Research-Almaden Center JOHN L. MANFERDELLI, Northeastern University J. GREGORY MORRISETT, Cornell University RANDOLPH L. MOSES, Ohio State University RADIA PERLMAN, NAE, EMC Corporation EMINA SOLJANIN, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey ALAN R. WAGNER, Pennsylvania State University PETER WILLETT, University of Connecticut vii
PANEL ON MATERIALS SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING AT THE ARMY RESEARCH LABORATORY MARK E. EBERHART, Colorado School of Mines, Chair RICHARD C. ALKIRE, NAE, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign MICHAEL I. BASKES, NAE, Mississippi State University; University of California, San Diego; Los Alamos National Laboratory PAUL V. BRAUN, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign STEPHEN CREAGER, Clemson University JUAN J. DE PABLO, NAE, University of Chicago ELIZABETH C. DICKEY, North Carolina State University MICHAEL ETTENBERG, NAE, Dolce Technologies OLIVIA A. GRAEVE, University of California, San Diego JOANNA R. GROZA, University of California, Davis JAMES S. HARRIS, NAE, Stanford University DOUGLAS C. HOPKINS, North Carolina State University AGNES C. KLUCHA, UTC Aerospace Systems THOMAS L. KOCH, NAE, University of Arizona SUBHASH MAHAJAN, NAE, University of California, Davis CHRISTIAN MAILHIOT, Sandia National Laboratories LAKSHMI S. NAIR, University of Connecticut Health Center JOSEPH W. ORENSTEIN, University of California, Berkeley C. KUMAR N. PATEL, NAS/NAE, Pranalytica, Inc. KARIN M. RABE, NAS, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey RAJEEV J. RAM, Massachusetts Institute of Technology SUSAN B. SINNOTT, Pennsylvania State University EPHRAIM SUHIR, Portland State University NARESH N. THADHANI, Georgia Institute of Technology EDWIN L. (NED) THOMAS, NAE, Rice University PANEL ON MECHANICAL SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING AT THE ARMY RESEARCH LABORATORY WESLEY L. HARRIS, NAE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Chair MONICA ANDERSON, University of Alabama ROMESH C. BATRA, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University EARL H. DOWELL, NAE, Duke University PATRICK J. FLYNN, University of Notre Dame DANIEL J. INMAN, University of Michigan MOSHE KAM, New Jersey Institute of Technology WILLIAM Q. MEEKER, JR., Iowa State University DANIEL I. NEWMAN, Boeing Commercial Airplanes LYNNE E. PARKER, University of Tennessee, Knoxville ARMANDO A. RODRIGUEZ, Arizona State University JAYANT S. SABNIS, Massachusetts Institute of Technology viii
WILLIAM A. SIRIGNANO, NAE, University of California, Irvine ALEXANDER J. SMITS, NAE, Princeton University ANNA G. STEFANOPOULOU, University of Michigan CHARLES E. THORPE, Clarkson University PATRICIO A. VELA, Georgia Institute of Technology ALAN R. WAGNER, Pennsylvania State University JOHN C. WALL, NAE, Cummins, Inc. (retired) HOLLY YANCO, University of Massachusetts, Lowell BEN T. ZINN, NAE, Georgia Institute of Technology ix
LABORATORY ASSESSMENTS BOARD ROSS B. COROTIS, NAE, University of Colorado, Boulder, Chair WESLEY L. HARRIS, NAE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology JENNIE S. HWANG, NAE, Case Western Reserve University; H-Technologies Group W. CARL LINEBERGER, NAS, JILA,1 University of Colorado, Boulder C. KUMAR N. PATEL, NAS/NAE, University of California, Los Angeles; Pranalytica, Inc. ELSA REICHMANIS, NAE, Georgia Institute of Technology LYLE H. SCHWARTZ, NAE, University of South Florida, Tampa Staff AZEB GETACHEW, Senior Program Assistant LIZA HAMILTON, Associate Program Officer (through March 17, 2019) EVA LABRE, Administrative Coordinator JAMES P. McGEE, Director ARUL MOZHI, Senior Program Officer 1 JILA, formerly known as the Joint Institute for Laboratory Astrophysics, is a physical science research institute located on the University of Colorado, Boulder, campus. JILA is jointly operated by the University of Colorado and the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). x
Acknowledgment of Reviewers This Consensus Study Report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published report as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Nicholas L. Abbott, NAE, Cornell University, Amy E. Duwel, The Charles Stark Draper Laboratory, Inc., Daniel M. Hancock, NAE, General Motors Corporation (retired), Guruswami Ravichandran, NAE, California Institute of Technology, and Fred B. Schneider, NAE, Cornell University. Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations of this report nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Dwight C. Streit, NAE, University of California, Los Angeles. He was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with the standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Academies. xi
Contents SUMMARY 1 1 INTRODUCTION 15 The Biennial Assessment Process, 15 Preparation and Organization of This Report, 17 Assessment Criteria, 17 Approach Taken During Report Preparation, 18 Report Content, 19 2 MATERIALS RESEARCH 20 Energy-Efficient Electronics and Photonics, 20 Materials for Soldier and Platform Power Systems, 27 Quantum Sciences, 36 Adaptive and Responsive Materials, 39 Agile Expedient Manufacturing, 43 High-Rate Materials and Mechanisms, 47 Overall Quality of the Work, 51 Conclusions and Recommendations, 52 3 SCIENCES FOR LETHALITY AND PROTECTION 56 Battlefield Injury Mechanisms, 56 Directed Energy, 63 Penetration, Armor, and Adaptive Protection, 66 Disruptive Energetics and Propulsion Technologies, 71 xiii
xiv CONTENTS Effects on TargetâBallistics and Blast, 78 Flight Guidance, Navigation, and Control, 79 Overall Quality of the Work, 81 Conclusions and Recommendations, 83 4 INFORMATION SCIENCES 85 Sensing and Effecting, 87 System Intelligence and Intelligent Systems, 90 Human-Information Interaction, 94 Atmospheric Sciences, 101 Networks and Communications, 107 Cybersecurity: Detection and Agility, 112 Overall Quality of the Work, 118 Conclusions and Recommendations, 120 5 COMPUTATIONAL SCIENCES 123 Advanced Computing Architectures, 123 Data-Intensive Sciences, 127 Predictive Sciences, 130 Overall Quality of the Work, 132 Conclusions and Recommendations, 133 6 SCIENCES FOR MANEUVER 134 Intelligence and Control, 135 Machine-Human Interaction, 141 Perception, 144 Platform Mechanics, 146 Energy and Propulsion, 151 Logistics and Sustainability, 154 Overall Quality of the Work, 160 Conclusions and Recommendations, 162 7 HUMAN SCIENCES 167 Real-World Behavior, 168 Human Variability, 172 Humans in Multiagent Systems, 174 Human Cyber Performance, 177 Overall Quality of the Work, 179 Conclusions and Recommendations, 180 8 ANALYSIS AND ASSESSMENT 187 Ballistics Survivability, Vulnerability, and Lethality, 188 Personnel Survivability, 190 Human Systems Integration, 194 Electronic Warfare Survivability, Lethality, and Vulnerability, 197
CONTENTS xv Cyber Survivability, Lethality, and Vulnerability, 200 Complex Adaptive Systems Analysis, 203 Overall Quality of the Work, 204 Conclusions and Recommendations, 206 9 CROSSCUTTING CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS AND EXCEPTIONAL ACCOMPLISHMENTS 210 Crosscutting Conclusions and Recommendations, 210 Exceptional Accomplishments, 214 APPENDIXES A Army Research Laboratory Organization and Science and Technology Campaign Framework 221 B Army Research Laboratory Technical Assessment Board Members and Staff Biographical Information 225 C Assessment Criteria 231 D Acronyms 233