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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. A Decision Framework for Interventions to Increase the Persistence and Resilience of Coral Reefs. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25424.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. A Decision Framework for Interventions to Increase the Persistence and Resilience of Coral Reefs. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25424.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. A Decision Framework for Interventions to Increase the Persistence and Resilience of Coral Reefs. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25424.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. A Decision Framework for Interventions to Increase the Persistence and Resilience of Coral Reefs. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25424.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. A Decision Framework for Interventions to Increase the Persistence and Resilience of Coral Reefs. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25424.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. A Decision Framework for Interventions to Increase the Persistence and Resilience of Coral Reefs. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25424.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. A Decision Framework for Interventions to Increase the Persistence and Resilience of Coral Reefs. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25424.
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Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. A Decision Framework for Interventions to Increase the Persistence and Resilience of Coral Reefs. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25424.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. A Decision Framework for Interventions to Increase the Persistence and Resilience of Coral Reefs. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25424.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. A Decision Framework for Interventions to Increase the Persistence and Resilience of Coral Reefs. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25424.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. A Decision Framework for Interventions to Increase the Persistence and Resilience of Coral Reefs. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25424.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. A Decision Framework for Interventions to Increase the Persistence and Resilience of Coral Reefs. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25424.
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Page xiii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. A Decision Framework for Interventions to Increase the Persistence and Resilience of Coral Reefs. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25424.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. A Decision Framework for Interventions to Increase the Persistence and Resilience of Coral Reefs. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25424.
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Below is the uncorrected machine-read text of this chapter, intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text of each book. Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.

PREPUBLICATION COPY A Decision Framework for Interventions to Increase the Persistence and Resilience of Coral Reefs Committee on Interventions to Increase the Resilience of Coral Reefs Ocean Studies Board Board on Life Sciences Division on Earth and Life Studies This prepublication version of A Decision Framework for Interventions to Increase the Persistence and Resilience of Coral Reefs has been provided to the public to facilitate timely access to the report. Although the substance of the proceedings is final, editorial changes may be made throughout the text and citations will be checked prior to publication. The final report will be available through the National Academies Press in summer 2019. A Consensus Study Report of

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 This activity was supported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration under Award Number WC133R17CQ0031 and the Paul G. Allen Family Foundation. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: International Standard Book Number-10: Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/25424 Additional copies of this report are available for sale from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu/. Copyright 2019 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. A Decision Framework for Interventions to Increase the Persistence and Resilience of Coral Reefs. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: https://doi.org/10.17226/25424 PREPUBLICATION COPY

The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, nongovernmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., is president. The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president. The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine. Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.nationalacademies.org. PREPUBLICATION COPY

Consensus Study Reports published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine document the evidence-based consensus on the study’s statement of task by an authoring committee of experts. Reports typically include findings, conclusions, and recommendations based on information gathered by the committee and the committee’s deliberations. Each report has been subjected to a rigorous and independent peer-review process and it represents the position of the National Academies on the statement of task. Proceedings published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine chronicle the presentations and discussions at a workshop, symposium, or other event convened by the National Academies. The statements and opinions contained in proceedings are those of the participants and are not endorsed by other participants, the planning committee, or the National Academies. For information about other products and activities of the National Academies, please visit www.nationalacademies.org/about/whatwedo. PREPUBLICATION COPY

COMMITTEE ON INTERVENTIONS TO INCREASE THE RESILIENCE OF CORAL REEFS STEPHEN R. PALUMBI, Chair, Stanford University, California KEN R. N. ANTHONY, Australian Institute of Marine Science, Queensland ANDREW C. BAKER, University of Miami, Florida MARISSA L. BASKETT, University of California, Davis DEBASHISH BHATTACHARYA, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey DAVID G. BOURNE, James Cook University and Australian Institute of Maine Science, Queensland NANCY KNOWLTON, Smithsonian Institution (retired), Washington, District of Columbia CHERYL A. LOGAN, California State University, Monterey Bay KERRY A. NAISH, University of Washington, Seattle ROBERT H. RICHMOND, University of Hawaii at Manoa TYLER B. SMITH, University of the Virgin Islands, St. Thomas KATHERINE VON STACKELBERG, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts Staff EMILY TWIGG, Program Officer, Ocean Studies Board ANDREA HODGSON, Program Officer, Board on Life Sciences TRENT CUMMINGS, Senior Program Assistant, Ocean Studies Board PREPUBLICATION COPY v

OCEAN STUDIES BOARD LARRY A. MAYER, Chair, University of New Hampshire, Durham CAROL ARNOSTI, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill KEVIN R. ARRIGO, Stanford University, California THOMAS R. CHANCE, ASV Global, LLC, Broussard, Louisiana PATRICK HEIMBACH, University of Texas, Austin SUSAN E. HUMPHRIS, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts NANCY KNOWLTON, Smithsonian Institution (ret.), Washington, District of Columbia ANTHONY MACDONALD, Monmouth University, West Long Branch, New Jersey THOMAS MILLER, University of Maryland, Solomons S. BRADLEY MORAN, University of Alaska, Fairbanks RUTH M. PERRY, Shell Exploration & Production Company, Houston, Texas JAMES SANCHIRICO, University of California, Davis MARK H. SPALDING, The Ocean Foundation, Washington, District of Columbia RICHARD SPINRAD, Oregon State University, Corvallis MARGARET SPRING, Monterey Bay Aquarium, Monterey, California DOUGLAS WARTZOK, Florida International University, Miami LISA D. WHITE, University of California, Berkeley and San Francisco State University ROBERT S. WINOKUR, Michigan Tech Research Institute, Silver Spring, Maryland Staff SUSAN ROBERTS, Director STACEE KARRAS, Program Officer EMILY TWIGG, Program Officer TRENT CUMMINGS, Senior Program Assistant SHELLY FREELAND, Financial Associate, Ocean Studies Board PREPUBLICATION COPY

BOARD ON LIFE SCIENCES JAMES P. COLLINS, Chair, Arizona State University, Tempe A. ALONSO AGUIRRE, George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia ENRIQUETA C. BOND, Burroughs Wellcome Fund, Marshall, Virginia DOMINIQUE BROSSARD, University of Wisconsin-Madison ROGER D. CONE, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor NANCY D. CONNELL, Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, Baltimore, Maryland SEAN M. DECATUR, Kenyon College, Gambier, Ohio JOSEPH R. ECKER, Salk Institute for Biological Studies, La Jolla, California SCOTT V. EDWARDS, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts GERALD EPSTEIN, National Defense University, Washington, District of Columbia ROBERT J. FULL, University of California, Berkeley ELIZABETH HEITMAN, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas MARY E. MAXON, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Emeryville, California ROBERT NEWMAN, Independent Consultant, Washington, District of Columbia STEPHEN J. O’BRIEN, Nova Southeastern University, Fort Lauderdale, Florida CLAIRE POMEROY, Albert and Mary Lasker Foundation, New York, New York MARY E. POWER, University of California, Berkeley SUSAN RUNDELL SINGER, Rollins College, Winter Park, Florida LANA SKIRBOLL, Sanofi, Baltimore, Maryland DAVID R. WALT, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts Staff FRANCES SHARPLES, Director KATIE BOWMAN, Senior Program Officer ANDREA HODGSON, Program Officer JO HUSBANDS, Senior Scholar KEEGAN SAWYER, Senior Program Officer AUDREY THEVENON, Program Officer JESSICA DE MOUY, Senior Program Assistant KOSSANA YOUNG, Senior Program Assistant PREPUBLICATION COPY vii

Acknowledgments This report was greatly enhanced by discussions with participants at the Committee’s meetings and workshops as part of this study. The Committee would like to acknowledge, especially, the efforts of those who gave presentations at the Committee’s final open meeting since production of the first report: John Carriger, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; William Fisher, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; Hugh Possingham, The Nature Conservancy and University of Queensland; Michael Runge, U.S. Geological Survey; Elizabeth Shaver, The Nature Conservancy; and Mitchell Small, Carnegie Mellon Institution. This Consensus Study Report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published report as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Iliana Baums, The Pennsylvania State University Julie Blackwood, Williams College John Carriger, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Joshua Madin, University of Hawaii at Manoa Erinn Muller, Mote Marine Laboratory Hollie Putnam, University of Rhode Island Robert Steneck, University of Maine Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations of this report nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this report was overseen by David Karl, University of Hawaii at Manoa and Holly Greening, CoastWise Partners. They were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with the standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the authoring Committee and the National Academies. PREPUBLICATION COPY ix

Preface Ecosystems around the world face increasing stress from human populations, and this is just as true in the oceans as on land. Coral reefs in particular are damaged by a wide range of factors, including overfishing, sediment, pollution, and habitat destruction. Added to these local stresses are a new range of deleterious impacts from climate change, which increases ocean temperature, storm damage, ocean acidity, and sea level. Because coral reefs directly provide food, living area, storm protection, and tourism income to hundreds of millions of people, maintaining their stability in the face of local and climate stressors is a key goal for supporting human well-being around the world. We are not powerless to slow the decay of coral ecosystems in the face of climate change. But any successful effort requires careful application of a range of management tools at a regional scale, which needs time, effort, and often international cooperation. The Committee on Interventions to Increase the Resilience of Coral Reefs was asked to review the state of research on methods that have been used, tested, or proposed to increase the resilience of coral reefs. In our first report, we described and summarized 23 different interventions in four broad categories. The interventions differ widely in readiness and none are ready to be used at a global scale. In all cases, use of any of these interventions demands simultaneous efforts to reduce local stressors and reduce the impact of global greenhouse gas emissions on the world’s climate. To navigate the sets of management choices that these many interventions provide, the committee turned to current methods of making complex management decisions when there are many possible avenues of action. In this report, we follow the best practices for decision analysis, emphasizing the need for community involvement and detailed modeling in goal setting and risk analysis. The committee strived to lay out a framework that includes a range of methods for evaluating interventions, while emphasizing the primary role of localized goals and preferences based on local environmental monitoring. The Caribbean is a notably stressed region, depauperate of corals and plagued by disease, and provided the committee with a key case study for directing the use of a decision framework. The group that together accomplished this effort—from the members of the committee to many levels of National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine staff—dedicated themselves to a long journey through many different kinds of information and many different ways of thinking, from genomics to decision science. Throughout, it has been a pleasure to work with, and sometimes just sit back and watch, the dedicated action, attention to detail, commitment to deadlines, and creativity of this thoughtful group. A sense of common resolve—that the world we live in, especially the beautiful reefs that we love, needs a different kind of immediate help—has pervaded our efforts. Last, our National Academies staff leaders Emily Twigg and Andrea Hodgson could not have been more effective at facilitating the balance between the practical and the audacious, which is the pivot point on which efforts to sustain all of Earth’s ecosystems balances. Stephen Palumbi, Chair Committee on Interventions to Increase the Resilience of Coral Reefs PREPUBLICATION COPY xi

Contents Summary 1 1 Introduction 15 Study Task and Approach 20 Reef Management Context 22 2 Selecting Interventions for Decision Analysis 27 Timeframe to Technical Readiness 27 Context Dependency of Interventions 32 Interdependence Among Interventions 38 3 Best Practices for Developing Structured Decision Support Systems for 41 Coral Interventions Decision Support Context of Coral Interventions 41 A Structured, Adaptive Approach to Decision Making 42 Conclusion 62 4 Illustrative Model of Decision Tools 65 Model Approach 65 Bayesian Network Analyses 81 Additional Directions 87 5 Research Needs 91 Research on Fundamental Coral Reef Biology 93 Site-Specific Research and Assessment to Determine Whether 101 Intervention is Needed or Possible Research to Improve Assessment of the Benefits, Efficacy, and Risks 105 of Specific Interventions Research to Inform Risk Assessments and Modeling 109 Research Capacity 111 6 The Tropical Western Atlantic and Caribbean as a Case Study for Coral 113 Interventions Tropical Western Atlantic and Caribbean Reef Ecosystems: 113 Geography, Diversity, Ecology, and Resilience Implications for Selecting and Modeling Interventions 118 Opportunities for Interventions 120 References 127 Appendix A: Committee and Staff Biographies 149 Appendix B: Bayesian Network File Creation 153 PREPUBLICATION COPY xiii

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Coral reefs are critical to ocean and human life because they provide food, living area, storm protection, tourism income, and more. However, human-induced stressors, such as overfishing, sediment, pollution, and habitat destruction have threatened ocean ecosystems globally for decades. In the face of climate change, these ecosystems now face an array of unfamiliar challenges due to destructive rises in ocean temperature, acidity and sea level. These factors lead to an increased frequency of bleaching events, hindered growth, and a decreasing rate of calcification. Research on interventions to combat these relatively new stressors and a reevaluation of longstanding interventions is necessary to understand and protect coral reefs in this changing climate. Previous research on these methods prompts further questions regarding the decision making process for site-specific interventions.

A Decision Framework for Interventions to Increase the Persistence and Resilience of Coral Reefs builds upon a previous report that reviews the state of research on methods that have been used, tested, or proposed to increase the resilience of coral reefs. This new report aims to help coral managers evaluate the specific needs of their site and navigate the 23 different interventions described in the previous report. A case study of the Caribbean, a region with low coral population plagued by disease, serves as an example for coral intervention decision making. This report provides complex coral management decision making tools, identifies gaps in coral biology and conservation research, and provides examples to help individuals and communities tailor a decision strategy to a local area.

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