Below is the uncorrected machine-read text of this chapter, intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text of each book. Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.
A I R P O R T C O O P E R A T I V E R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M ACRP RESEARCH REPORT 204 2019 Research sponsored by the Federal Aviation Administration Subscriber Categories Aviation â¢ Economics â¢ Planning and Forecasting Air Demand in a Dynamic Competitive Context with the Automobile RSG, Inc. White River Junction, VT w i t h Matthew Coogan Ithaca, NY Mark Hansen University of California Berkeley, CA Richard Marchi Washington, DC Nancy McGuckin South Pasadena, CA Megan Ryerson University of Pennsylvania Philadelphia, PA Mike Welch Bridgewater state University Bridgewater, MA
AIRPORT COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM Airports are vital national resources. They serve a key role in trans- portation of people and goods and in regional, national, and interna- tional commerce. They are where the nationâs aviation system connects with other modes of transportation and where federal responsibility for managing and regulating air traffic operations intersects with the role of state and local governments that own and operate most airports. Research is necessary to solve common operating problems, to adapt appropriate new technologies from other industries, and to introduce innovations into the airport industry. The Airport Cooperative Research Program (ACRP) serves as one of the principal means by which the airport industry can develop innovative near-term solutions to meet demands placed on it. The need for ACRP was identified in TRB Special Report 272: Airport Research Needs: Cooperative Solutions in 2003, based on a study spon- sored by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). ACRP carries out applied research on problems that are shared by airport operating agen- cies and not being adequately addressed by existing federal research programs. ACRP is modeled after the successful National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) and Transit Cooperative Research Program (TCRP). ACRP undertakes research and other technical activi- ties in various airport subject areas, including design, construction, legal, maintenance, operations, safety, policy, planning, human resources, and administration. ACRP provides a forum where airport operators can cooperatively address common operational problems. ACRP was authorized in December 2003 as part of the Vision 100â Century of Aviation Reauthorization Act. The primary participants in the ACRP are (1) an independent governing board, the ACRP Oversight Committee (AOC), appointed by the Secretary of the U.S. Department of Transportation with representation from airport operating agencies, other stakeholders, and relevant industry organizations such as the Airports Council International-North America (ACI-NA), the American Associa- tion of Airport Executives (AAAE), the National Association of State Aviation Officials (NASAO), Airlines for America (A4A), and the Airport Consultants Council (ACC) as vital links to the airport community; (2) TRB as program manager and secretariat for the governing board; and (3) the FAA as program sponsor. In October 2005, the FAA executed a contract with the National Academy of Sciences formally initiating the program. ACRP benefits from the cooperation and participation of airport professionals, air carriers, shippers, state and local government officials, equipment and service suppliers, other airport users, and research organi- zations. Each of these participants has different interests and responsibili- ties, and each is an integral part of this cooperative research effort. Research problem statements for ACRP are solicited periodically but may be submitted to TRB by anyone at any time. It is the responsibility of the AOC to formulate the research program by identifying the highest priority projects and defining funding levels and expected products. Once selected, each ACRP project is assigned to an expert panel appointed by TRB. Panels include experienced practitioners and research specialists; heavy emphasis is placed on including airport professionals, the intended users of the research products. The panels prepare project statements (requests for proposals), select contractors, and provide technical guidance and counsel throughout the life of the project. The process for developing research problem statements and selecting research agencies has been used by TRB in managing coop- erative research programs since 1962. As in other TRB activities, ACRP project panels serve voluntarily without compensation. Primary emphasis is placed on disseminating ACRP results to the intended users of the research: airport operating agencies, service pro- viders, and academic institutions. ACRP produces a series of research reports for use by airport operators, local agencies, the FAA, and other interested parties; industry associations may arrange for workshops, training aids, field visits, webinars, and other activities to ensure that results are implemented by airport industry practitioners. ACRP RESEARCH REPORT 204 Project 03-40 ISSN 2572-3731 (Print) ISSN 2572-374X (Online) ISBN 978-0-309-48083-3 Library of Congress Control Number 2019951779 Â© 2019 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. COPYRIGHT INFORMATION Authors herein are responsible for the authenticity of their materials and for obtaining written permissions from publishers or persons who own the copyright to any previously published or copyrighted material used herein. Cooperative Research Programs (CRP) grants permission to reproduce material in this publication for classroom and not-for-profit purposes. Permission is given with the understanding that none of the material will be used to imply TRB, AASHTO, FAA, FHWA, FMCSA, FRA, FTA, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Research and Technology, PHMSA, or TDC endorsement of a particular product, method, or practice. It is expected that those reproducing the material in this document for educational and not-for-profit uses will give appropriate acknowledgment of the source of any reprinted or reproduced material. For other uses of the material, request permission from CRP. NOTICE The research report was reviewed by the technical panel and accepted for publication according to procedures established and overseen by the Transportation Research Board and approved by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. The opinions and conclusions expressed or implied in this report are those of the researchers who performed the research and are not necessarily those of the Transportation Research Board; the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine; or the program sponsors. The Transportation Research Board; the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine; and the sponsors of the Airport Cooperative Research Program do not endorse products or manufacturers. Trade or manufacturersâ names appear herein solely because they are considered essential to the object of the report. Published research reports of the AIRPORT COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM are available from Transportation Research Board Business Office 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 and can be ordered through the Internet by going to http://www.national-academies.org and then searching for TRB Printed in the United States of America
The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, non- governmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. John L. Anderson is president. The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president. The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The National Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine. Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.national-academies.org. The Transportation Research Board is one of seven major programs of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. The mission of the Transportation Research Board is to increase the benefits that transportation contributes to society by providing leadership in transportation innovation and progress through research and information exchange, conducted within a setting that is objective, interdisciplinary, and multimodal. The Boardâs varied committees, task forces, and panels annually engage about 7,000 engineers, scientists, and other transportation researchers and practitioners from the public and private sectors and academia, all of whom contribute their expertise in the public interest. The program is supported by state transportation departments, federal agencies including the component administrations of the U.S. Department of Transportation, and other organizations and individuals interested in the development of transportation. Learn more about the Transportation Research Board at www.TRB.org.
C O O P E R A T I V E R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M S CRP STAFF FOR ACRP RESEARCH REPORT 204 Christopher J. Hedges, Director, Cooperative Research Programs Lori L. Sundstrom, Deputy Director, Cooperative Research Programs Marci A. Greenberger, Manager, Airport Cooperative Research Program Lawrence D. Goldstein, Senior Program Officer Anthony P. Avery, Senior Program Assistant Eileen P. Delaney, Director of Publications Natalie Barnes, Associate Director of Publications Ellen M. Chafee, Senior Editor ACRP PROJECT 03-40 PANEL Field of Policy and Planning Lois Kramer, KRAMER Aerotek, Inc., Boulder, CO (Chair) John F. Betak, Collaborative Solutions, LLC, Albuquerque, NM Frederick R. Busch, Denver, CO Paula Jordan-Foster, Dallas Fort Worth International Airport, Carrollton, TX Stephanie A. Morgan, Lewiston-Nez Perce County Regional Airport (LWS), Lewiston, ID Scott A. Peterson, Boston Region Metropolitan Planning Organization, Stoneham, MA Jia Yan, Washington State University, Pullman, WA Douglas R. Anderson, FAA Liaison Caroline Bonynge, American Association of Airport Executives (AAAE) Liaison Liying Gu, Airports Council InternationalâNorth America Liaison
ACRP Research Report 204: Air Demand in a Dynamic Competitive Context with the Automobile, establishes a major new approach to the analysis of future consumer demand for shorter-distance air travel in comparison with travel by automobile. The fundamental finding of this research is that future demand for shorter-range airline trips is both volatile and unstable, affected by changes in technology as well as consumer preferences. Through application of new research tools that support scenario analysis, the report concludes that evolving automobile technology could diminish demand for shorter-range air trips, both in terms of distance to ultimate destination as well as access to larger airports. Alternatively, changes in aircraft technology could increase demand for short-distance air travel by creating improvements that decrease the operating cost of short flights. Most probably, the future will bring changes affected by both emerging trends. The research can help managers of smaller airports develop a better understanding of how consumers choose between flying out of a smaller hometown airport to connect to a larger airport and taking a longer automobile drive, bypassing the smaller airport, to fly directly from a larger airport. In the longer term, public policy may need to consider the changing role of automobiles for long-distance travel and the potential economic impacts of decreasing demand for air service to and from smaller regional airports. This research has created an analytical framework that facilitates comparison of the two competing modes under changing technology and demographic conditions as well as consumer choice. Forecasters have largely predicted future domestic aviation demand in the United States based on measures of economic growth and development in relation to existing and poten- tial aviation supply and demand. The research presented in ACRP Research Report 204 has demonstrated a new way of looking at air travel demand. While previous methods of demand forecasting have tended to see aviation in a vacuum relative to its key domestic competitor, the automobile, this new approach allows the analyst to specify assumptions about the quality and characteristics of service offered by that competitor. In theory, this capability should support the development of policy analysis tools that are more sensitive to changing market conditions. By addressing direct competition between the air trip and the car trip, demand-forecasting models are moving closer to being âbehavioralâ in nature. In the short term, the most effective action for practitioners in the middle of the decision-making process, such as the managers of non-hub airports, is to improve under- standing of how people actually make decisions concerning use of and access to smaller versus larger airports. These decisions also take into account details of the roadway trip, including number of passengers, mileage, distance, time, cost, and other demographic factors. By way of example, the report suggests that airport choice for the arriving (non-resident) F O R E W O R D By Lawrence D. Goldstein Staff Officer Transportation Research Board
passenger on the outbound trip is fundamentally different from the choice by the departing (resident) passenger. In theory, an advertising dollar that influences the arriving passenger might be more effective than such a dollar aimed at the local resident. How to manage that marketing effort is a challenge. Based on the undertaking of a new survey of 4,200 long-distance travelers, this research has created three kinds of new models. Using methods from social psychology, a Structural Equations Model was created to increase understanding of how basic values, attitudes, and preferences interact in the choice of long-distance mode; this is a method that does not emphasize trip times and costs. Second, the research program created a series of Multi- nomial Logit modelsâmodels that do not emphasize values and attitudes. Finally, the process created a third new model that integrates attitudinal and cultural factors with more traditional trip times and costs. The research team used this Advanced Hybrid Choice model, also known as an Integrated Choice and Latent Variable model, to create a series of alternative future scenarios. The report predicts a wide variety of possible futures for the choice between air and automobile modes in domestic American long-distance tripmaking. Its conclusions suggest that the changes already underway in the automobile travel experience may portend a much larger role for the advanced automobile of the future in certain kinds of long-distance tripmaking. Adding to the uncertainty is the question of newly developing aircraft tech- nology for the shorter-distance air trip, particularly if such technology can lower fuel consumption while significantly lowering airline operating costs. Greater technical detail on the analytical models created for this research and their application is provided in ACRP Web-Only Document 38: Technical Appendix to Air Demand in a Dynamic Competitive Context with the Automobile, available on the TRB website at http://www.trb.org/Main/ Blurbs/179508.aspx. Matthew Coogan served as Principal Investigator and primary author of this report. RSG, Inc., managed the project with Thomas Adler, Ph.D., serving as Principal in Charge, and Greg Spitz serving as Project Manager. Professors Megan Ryerson, Mark Hansen, and Mike Welch added considerable expertise to the consulting team. Nancy McGuckin pro- vided expert analysis of demographics, and Richard Marchi provided aviation advice growing out of years of airport/aviation experience.
1 Summary 4 Chapter 1 Market Competition Between Airplane and Automobile Modes 4 Introduction 6 Establishing a Sense of Scale 7 The Base Case for Analysis of Alternative Scenarios 8 Developing the Research Tools 9 The Five Overarching Scenarios 10 Understanding the Five Possible Futures for Long-Distance Travel 15 Implications for Airports by Size 16 Change from Major Component Factors Used in Scenarios 19 Implications from the Scenario Testing Exercise 21 Chapter 2 Trends and Changes in Automobile and Air Markets over Two Decades 21 Introduction 21 Market Trends for Air Travel, 1995 to 2017 23 Understanding the Services Provided by the Airlines 25 Understanding Market Trends for the Automobile 26 Air and Automobile Travel Together 28 Long-Distance Travel Behavior in the Present and in 1995 30 A Major Finding: An Overall Change in Composition of VMT? 32 Where the Competitive Markets Are Located 35 Chapter 3 Factors That Influence the Choice of Mode for the Long-Distance Trip 35 Introduction 36 The All-Important Role of Trip Distance in the Choice Between the Car and the Plane for Long-Distance Trips 37 The Supply Side: How Costs Are Influenced by Distance 40 The Demand Side: How Mode Share Is Influenced by Trip Distance in Interaction with Other Factors 45 Chapter 4 The Role of the Automobile in the Future of Smaller American Airports: Leakage from Smaller Airports to Larger Ones 45 Introduction 46 Airports Categorized by Competition with Other Airports 46 Factors Affecting Airport Choice: Results from the 2017 ACRP Project 03-40 Survey 49 How Automobile Access Relates to Airport Market Leakage 58 Future Automobiles and the Future of Airport Market Leakage 59 How Evolving Aircraft Technology Might Influence the Choice of Airports C O N T E N T S
64 Chapter 5 The Role of Attitudes Toward Long-Distance Trips in Mode Choice 64 Introduction 64 Overall Attitude: People Still Want to Travel 68 Market Segmentation by Attitude and Behavior 72 An Attitude-Based Model of the Choice Between the Car Trip and the Air Trip 77 Chapter 6 Research Methods 77 Introduction 77 The 2017 ACRP Project 03-40 Stated Preference Survey 79 Three Kinds of Models Developed from the Survey Results 79 Multinomial Logit and Mixed Multinomial Logit Choice Models 83 Hybrid Choice Model for Scenario Testing 87 National Application of the Scenario Testing Model 90 Conclusion 91 Chapter 7 Conclusions and Further Research 91 Good News and Bad News 91 Increase in Use of Automobile for the Mid-Distance Trip 92 Selection of Departure Airports Is Changing 93 Whatâs in the Future? 95 Further Research 98 Bibliography 100 Abbreviations and Airport Codes