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Suggested Citation:"Contents." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Air Demand in a Dynamic Competitive Context with the Automobile. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25448.
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Suggested Citation:"Contents." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Air Demand in a Dynamic Competitive Context with the Automobile. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25448.
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Suggested Citation:"Contents." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Air Demand in a Dynamic Competitive Context with the Automobile. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25448.
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Suggested Citation:"Contents." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Air Demand in a Dynamic Competitive Context with the Automobile. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25448.
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Suggested Citation:"Contents." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Air Demand in a Dynamic Competitive Context with the Automobile. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25448.
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Suggested Citation:"Contents." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Air Demand in a Dynamic Competitive Context with the Automobile. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25448.
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Suggested Citation:"Contents." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Air Demand in a Dynamic Competitive Context with the Automobile. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25448.
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Suggested Citation:"Contents." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Air Demand in a Dynamic Competitive Context with the Automobile. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25448.
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Suggested Citation:"Contents." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Air Demand in a Dynamic Competitive Context with the Automobile. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25448.
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Suggested Citation:"Contents." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Air Demand in a Dynamic Competitive Context with the Automobile. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25448.
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Suggested Citation:"Contents." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Air Demand in a Dynamic Competitive Context with the Automobile. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25448.
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Suggested Citation:"Contents." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Air Demand in a Dynamic Competitive Context with the Automobile. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25448.
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Suggested Citation:"Contents." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Air Demand in a Dynamic Competitive Context with the Automobile. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25448.
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ii Contents PREFACE ...................................................................................................................... XI The Audience for this Report ..................................................................................................................................................... xi Major Themes ............................................................................................................................................................................... xi More competition from the car in the short trip ................................................................................................................ xi More competition from the evolving automobile of the future ....................................................................................... xi Possible futures which could impact the smaller airport .................................................................................................. xii Implications from the scenario testing ................................................................................................................................ xii How modal decisions are made: implications for local marketing .................................................................................. xii Next steps ............................................................................................................................................................................... xiv CHAPTER 1. SUMMARY AND MAJOR FINDINGS: UNDERSTANDING THE MARKET BETWEEN AIR AND THE AUTO ................................................................... 1 1(a) Introduction and Structure of this Report ........................................................................................................ 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................................... 1 Structure .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 2 Highlights ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 2 Increased diversion of trips from air to auto ........................................................................................................................ 2 Demographic differences ........................................................................................................................................................ 2 Attitudes and preferences ........................................................................................................................................................ 3 Airport choice ........................................................................................................................................................................... 3 Leakage to more distant airports ............................................................................................................................................ 3 Possible alterations in airline service patterns and aircraft technologies .......................................................................... 4 1(b) Establishing a Sense of Scale ............................................................................................................................ 4 1(c) The Base Case for Analysis of Alternative Scenarios ....................................................................................... 5 1(d) Developing the research tools ........................................................................................................................... 6 The project survey .................................................................................................................................................................... 6 Three kinds of kinds of models .............................................................................................................................................. 6 1(e) The Five Overarching Scenarios ....................................................................................................................... 7 Understanding the Five Possible Futures for Long-distance Travel ...................................................................................... 8 The sheer range of futures examined .................................................................................................................................... 8 Understanding the implications of a very automobile oriented future (Scenario 1) ....................................................... 9 More optimistic scenarios for airports ................................................................................................................................ 12 Comparing the five scenarios together ................................................................................................................................ 12

iii 1(f) Implications for Airports, by Size .................................................................................................................... 13 1(g) Change from Major Component Factors Used in Scenarios ......................................................................... 15 Examples of the component factors ......................................................................................................................................... 16 Impact of new direct flights, by national region ................................................................................................................ 16 Attitudinal variation by age ................................................................................................................................................... 16 Perceptions of auto travel ..................................................................................................................................................... 17 1(h) Implications from the Scenario Testing Exercise .......................................................................................... 19 What travel patterns are most vulnerable? .......................................................................................................................... 19 What is Next? ............................................................................................................................................................................... 20 CHAPTER 2. TRENDS AND CHANGES IN AUTO AND AIR MARKETS OVER TWO DECADES ..................................................................................................................... 21 2(a) Introduction and Structure ............................................................................................................................. 21 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................................. 21 Structure ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 21 2(b) Understanding Market Trends for Air Travel ................................................................................................ 21 Historical Trends in Enplanement ............................................................................................................................................ 21 2(c) Understanding the Services Provided by the Airlines .................................................................................... 23 Change in the Composition of Air Flight Segments 1995-2016 .......................................................................................... 24 Changes in air travel, 1995 and 2016 ........................................................................................................................................ 25 2(d) Understanding Market Trends for the Automobile ....................................................................................... 26 Historical Trends in VMT per Capita Between 1995 and 2015 ............................................................................................ 26 VMT as a Function of Economic Growth .............................................................................................................................. 27 2(e) Air and Automobile Travel Together ............................................................................................................. 28 Mode Share, by Distance (1995 vs. 2002) ................................................................................................................................ 29 Changes in the role of air and automobile by 2002 ........................................................................................................... 29 2(f) Present Long-Distance Travel Behavior Compared with 1995 ....................................................................... 29 Comparison with Earlier Mode Share Data ............................................................................................................................. 29 Comparing with 2017 direct survey results ......................................................................................................................... 30 Using the project’s simulated data ....................................................................................................................................... 31 Does an Increase in Car Use Make Sense? ............................................................................................................................... 31 Changes in gas prices ............................................................................................................................................................. 31 Changes in air fares ................................................................................................................................................................ 32 2(g) A Major Finding: An Overall Change in Composition of VMT? ................................................................... 32 Long-distance auto travel as a portion of total auto travel ............................................................................................... 33

iv 2(h) Where the Competive Markets are Located ................................................................................................... 34 Corridors Under 800 Miles in Distance .................................................................................................................................... 34 Number of annual trips by all modes in study corridors .................................................................................................. 34 Air Mode Share, by Distance—Chart Format ......................................................................................................................... 36 Examples of the Scale of Trip-Making Over 800 Miles ......................................................................................................... 36 CHAPTER 3. FACTORS WHICH INFLUENCE THE CHOICE OF MODE FOR THE LONG-DISTANCE TRIP ............................................................................................... 38 3(a) Introduction and Structure ............................................................................................................................. 38 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................................. 38 Structure ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 39 3(b) The Choice between the Car and the Plane for the Long-Distance Trip ..................................................... 39 The All-Important Role of Trip Distance ................................................................................................................................ 39 Mode share, by distance—American Travel Survey (ATS) data from 1995 .................................................................. 39 3(c) The Supply Side: How Costs are Influenced by Distance ............................................................................. 40 Costs Experienced for Each Mode ........................................................................................................................................... 40 The Price of the Air Trip, by Distance ..................................................................................................................................... 41 The Price of the Auto Trip, by Distance .................................................................................................................................. 42 Reasons to look at fully allocated costs ............................................................................................................................... 44 3(d) The Demand Side: How Mode Share is Influenced by Distance .................................................................. 44 Importance of Trip Distance in Interaction with Other Factors .......................................................................................... 44 Income, by distance ............................................................................................................................................................... 45 Age, by distance ...................................................................................................................................................................... 45 Trip purpose, by distance ...................................................................................................................................................... 46 Travel party size, by distance ................................................................................................................................................ 47 Need for the auto at trip end, by distance .......................................................................................................................... 47 Who is taking a multi-destination trip? ............................................................................................................................... 48 Who is traveling by car for the very longest trips? ............................................................................................................ 48 CHAPTER 4. THE ROLE OF THE AUTOMOBILE IN THE FUTURE OF SMALLER AMERICAN AIRPORTS: LEAKAGE FROM SMALLER TO LARGER ........................ 50 4(a) Introduction and Structure ............................................................................................................................. 50 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................................. 50 Structure ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 50 4(b) Airports Categorized by Competition with Other Airports ........................................................................... 51 Summary of National Airport Locations .................................................................................................................................. 51 4(c) Factors Affecting Airport Choice: Results from The 2017 Survey .................................................................. 51

v Attitudes Toward Choice of Airport, From the Survey ......................................................................................................... 51 Factors Affecting Airport Choice .............................................................................................................................................. 52 Previous research results ....................................................................................................................................................... 52 “Willingness to pay” and airport choice .............................................................................................................................. 53 Airfare increases and airport choice ..................................................................................................................................... 54 Auto cost increases and airport choice ................................................................................................................................ 54 Changes in smaller airport service frequency and directness ........................................................................................... 55 4(d) How Auto Access Relates to Airport Market Leakage .................................................................................. 55 Understanding “Leakage” ........................................................................................................................................................... 55 Airport market leakage: definitions and scope ................................................................................................................... 56 An environment ripe for airport market leakage ............................................................................................................... 56 Airport Market Leakage Today .................................................................................................................................................. 57 Status Quo differences in air service ................................................................................................................................... 58 Relationship between dominant and local airports ............................................................................................................ 58 Estimating Local Airport Market Share and Airport Market Leakage ................................................................................. 60 Highway Traffic due to Airport Market Leakage .................................................................................................................... 62 4(e) Future Automobiles and the Future of Airport Market Leakage ................................................................... 64 Conclusion: Airport Leakage and Diversions to the Automobile ......................................................................................... 65 Implications of results ........................................................................................................................................................... 65 4(f) How Evolving Aircraft Technology Might Influence the Choice of Airports ................................................ 66 Examining the Scenario Results ................................................................................................................................................ 66 Isolating the impacts of new aircraft technology ............................................................................................................... 66 Understanding the New Aircraft Technology ......................................................................................................................... 67 Distributed Elective Propulsion ........................................................................................................................................... 67 Crew assumptions .................................................................................................................................................................. 68 Obstacles ................................................................................................................................................................................. 69 Summary: New Aircraft Technology and the Future of Smaller Airports ........................................................................... 69 CHAPTER 5. ATTITUDES TOWARD THE LONG-DISTANCE TRIP AND THEIR ROLE IN INFLUENCING MODE CHOICE ............................................................................... 71 5(a) Introduction and Structure ............................................................................................................................. 71 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................................. 71 Structure ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 71 5(b) Overall Attitude: People Still Want to Travel ................................................................................................. 71 Attitudes towards the Long-distance Trip................................................................................................................................ 71 Method .................................................................................................................................................................................... 72 Attitudes toward the Auto .......................................................................................................................................................... 72 Attitudes Toward Congestion And Stress ................................................................................................................................ 73 Attitudes about Disturbing Behavior in the Trip .................................................................................................................... 75

vi Preferences and Choice of the Air Trip .................................................................................................................................... 76 Implications from the Attitudinal Data .................................................................................................................................... 76 5(c) Market Segmentation by Attitude and Behavior ............................................................................................ 77 Purpose and Method ................................................................................................................................................................... 77 Market segmentation ............................................................................................................................................................. 77 Results: Five Market Segments Revealed ................................................................................................................................. 77 Ardent plane adherents (29%) .............................................................................................................................................. 79 Rational air travelers (23%) ................................................................................................................................................... 79 Ambivalent adapters (18%) ................................................................................................................................................... 80 Rational auto travelers (16%) ................................................................................................................................................ 80 Ardent auto adherents (8%) .................................................................................................................................................. 80 5(d) An Attitude-Based Model of the Choice between the Car and the Air .......................................................... 81 The ACRP Structural Equation Model for Long-distance Mode Choice ............................................................................ 81 Defining the model ................................................................................................................................................................ 81 The Latent Factors Developed in the Model ........................................................................................................................... 81 Longer term values ................................................................................................................................................................. 82 Location ................................................................................................................................................................................... 83 Shorter term attitudes about the trip ................................................................................................................................... 83 Factors from the Theory of Planned Behavior .................................................................................................................. 83 The Outcome Factor: Choice of Mode .................................................................................................................................... 84 Running the Model ...................................................................................................................................................................... 84 Interpreting the Results of the Long-Distance Mode Choice Structural Equation Model ................................................ 84 Interpreting the SEM Format .................................................................................................................................................... 85 Comparing the Role of the Factors ........................................................................................................................................... 85 CHAPTER 6. METHODS WE USED IN THIS PROJECT ............................................. 87 6(a) Introduction and Structure ............................................................................................................................. 87 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................................. 87 Structure ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 87 6(b) The Project’s Stated Preference Survey, 2017 ................................................................................................. 87 Sampling plan .......................................................................................................................................................................... 87 Questionnaire .......................................................................................................................................................................... 88 Survey administration ............................................................................................................................................................ 88 Survey results .......................................................................................................................................................................... 90 6(c) Developing the Models from the Project Survey Results ............................................................................... 90 Three Kinds of Kinds of Models .............................................................................................................................................. 90 6(d) Multinomial Logit and Mixed Multinomial Logit Choice Models ............................................................... 90 Model Estimation ........................................................................................................................................................................ 90

vii Logit Model Results .................................................................................................................................................................... 91 Air constants in the logit models ......................................................................................................................................... 91 Car constants in the logit models ......................................................................................................................................... 92 Mixed Multinomial Logit Model Application and Simulation ............................................................................................... 92 Early scenarios explored in the testing of the logit models .............................................................................................. 93 6(e) Hybrid Choice Model for Scenario Testing ................................................................................................... 94 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................................. 94 Results: Outputs from Measurement Model and Structural Model ...................................................................................... 95 LV1: Auto Orientation .......................................................................................................................................................... 95 LV2: Values Information Technology................................................................................................................................. 95 LV3: Multiday Trips Unpleasant .......................................................................................................................................... 95 LV4: Car Stress ....................................................................................................................................................................... 95 LV5: Airport Stress ................................................................................................................................................................ 96 Impact of LVs on Utilities in Choice Model ...................................................................................................................... 96 Other Deterministic and Random Heterogeneity in Mode Specific Constants .................................................................. 96 Estimates Relating to Explanatory Variables ..................................................................................................................... 96 Implied Monetary Valuations from the HyBrid Choice Model ............................................................................................ 97 6(f) National Application of the Scenario Testing Model ..................................................................................... 98 Model Description ....................................................................................................................................................................... 98 The FHWA model used as the base for developing the scenario testing model ........................................................... 99 Model refinement for the new ACRP Scenario Testing Model. .................................................................................... 100 6(g) Conclusion .................................................................................................................................................... 100 CHAPTER 7. CONCLUSIONS AND FURTHER RESEARCH .................................... 102 7(a) Introduction: Good News and Bad News .................................................................................................... 102 Optimistic? ............................................................................................................................................................................ 102 Pessimistic? ............................................................................................................................................................................ 102 7(b) Overall Patterns, Increase in Auto for the Mid-distance Trip ..................................................................... 102 When Did it Start Happening? ................................................................................................................................................ 102 Shorter flights become less important ............................................................................................................................... 103 As a result, the auto share of the mid-distance market soars ......................................................................................... 103 7(c) Our Selection of Departure Airports is Changing ........................................................................................ 103 Change in Auto Use to Distant Airports ................................................................................................................................ 103 7(d) What’s in the Future? .................................................................................................................................... 104 The Fully Developed Autonomous Vehicle .......................................................................................................................... 104 Which trips are most vulnerable to change in mode? ..................................................................................................... 105 Incremental improvements to the car ............................................................................................................................... 105

viii What Did We Learn about the Choice between the Car and the Plane? ........................................................................... 105 Does market behavior make sense? ................................................................................................................................... 105 What drives the modal decision? ........................................................................................................................................ 105 The Positive Outlook ................................................................................................................................................................ 106 7(e) Further Research ........................................................................................................................................... 106 What about the other modes? ............................................................................................................................................ 107 Better understanding of the attributes of auto travel ...................................................................................................... 107 Better understanding of why airlines do and do not add new service .......................................................................... 108 Better understanding of the choice of the airport of arrival ........................................................................................... 108 The need for better data collection for the auto trip ....................................................................................................... 108 REFERENCES ............................................................................................................ 110

ix LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE 1-1. COMPARISON NATIONAL CHANGE IN AIR TRIPS, 5 SCENARIOS ........................................................................... 8 FIGURE 1-2 . A HYPOTHETICAL SCENARIO WITH AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES SHOWS IMPACTS ON AIR TRAVEL WHICH VARY BY THE LENGTH OF THE LONG-DISTANCE TRIP .................................................................................................................. 9 FIGURE 1-3. THE HYPOTHESIZED ACCEPTANCE OF AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES WOULD IMPACT THE SMALLER AIRPORTS MORE SEVERELY THAN THE LARGEST ...................................................................................................................... 10 FIGURE 1-4 DEFINITIONS OF US CENSUS NATIONAL REGIONS USED (CENSUS.GOV) ........................................................... 11 FIGURE 1-5. IMPACT OF AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES, BY NATIONAL REGION ............................................................................ 11 FIGURE 1-6. INCREASE IN AIR TRIPS UNDER OPTIMISTIC ASSUMPTIONS FOR SMALLER AIRPORTS ................................. 12 FIGURE 1-7. INCREASE IN AIR TRIPS FROM INCREASED DIRECT SERVICE, BY NATIONAL REGION .................................. 16 FIGURE 1-8. AIR TRIP MARKET GROWTH IF ALL POPULATION HAD ATTITUDES OF THE MILLENNIALS ............................ 17 FIGURE 1-9. DECREASE IN AIR TRIPS IF THE CAR IS PERCEIVED AS LESS STRESSFUL THAN PRESENT ......................... 18 FIGURE 1-10 INCREASE IN AIR TRIPS WITH DECREASE IN PRIVATE CAR ORIENTATION, BY DISTANCE ............................ 19 FIGURE 2-1. HISTORY OF GROWTH IN AIRPORT ENPLANEMENT (1995–2017) ........................................................................ 22 FIGURE 2-2. ENPLANEMENTS PER CAPITA, 1995 TO 2017 .......................................................................................................... 23 FIGURE 2-3. DECREASE IN AIRLINE SERVICE BY DISTANCE OF FLIGHT SEGMENT (2007–2012) ......................................... 24 FIGURE 2-4 INCREASE IN THE LENGTH OF AIR SEGMENT, 1995-2015 ....................................................................................... 25 FIGURE 2-5. VEHICLE MILES OF TRAVEL PER CAPITA (1995–2017) ........................................................................................... 27 FIGURE 2-6. COMPARISON OF GDP AND VMT PATTERNS (1990–2014) .................................................................................... 28 FIGURE 2-7. GROWTH INDEX FROM BASE YEAR OF 2001, FOR AIR ENPLANEMENTS AND AUTO VMT ............................... 29 FIGURE 2-8. EFFECT OF DISTANCE ON AUTO MODE SHARE, 1995 VS 2017 SURVEY RESULTS ........................................... 30 FIGURE 2-9. CHANGE IN AUTO SHARE, 1995 VS 2011 SIMULATION .......................................................................................... 31 FIGURE 2-10. COST OF AIRLINE TICKETS AND GAS OVER TIME ............................................................................................... 32 FIGURE 2-11. ONE-DAY DRIVE CORRIDORS RANKED, BY TOTAL TRAFFIC VOLUME ............................................................. 35 FIGURE 2-12. AIR MODE SHARE AS FUNCTION OF DISTANCE, FOR THE “ONE-DAY DRIVE” CITY PAIRS .......................... 36 FIGURE 3-1. EFFECT OF DISTANCE ON SHARE BETWEEN AIR AND AUTO, 1995. .................................................................... 40 FIGURE 3-2 AIR COSTS PER MILE, BY TRIP DISTANCE ................................................................................................................ 41 FIGURE 3-3. FULLY ALLOCATED ROUND TRIP COSTS, BY MODE AND PARTY SIZE; CAR COSTS AT $0.54 PER MILE ..... 43 FIGURE 3-4. COST MODEL, WITH NON-FIXED ROUND TRIP CAR COSTS AT $0.23 PER MILE ................................................ 43 FIGURE 3-5. AUTO SHARE BY TRIP DISTANCE, FOR TWO INCOME GROUPS .......................................................................... 45 FIGURE 3-6. EFFECT OF TRIP DISTANCE ON AUTO MODE SHARE, TWO AGE GROUPS ........................................................ 46 FIGURE 3-7. AUTO MODE SHARE, BY DISTANCE BY TRIP PURPOSE ........................................................................................ 46 FIGURE 3-8. AUTO MODES SHARE, BY TRIP DISTANCE AND PARTY SIZE ............................................................................... 47 FIGURE 3-9. AUTO MODE SHARE BY DISTANCE—NEED CAR VS. DON'T NEED CAR ............................................................. 48 FIGURE 3-10. RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN NUMBER OF DESTINATIONS AND MODE CHOICE, BY DISTANCE ........................ 49 FIGURE 4-1. DIAGRAM OF TRAVELER PATTERNS FOR LOCAL AND MEGAREGIONAL AIRPORT ACCESS. ........................ 57 FIGURE 4-2. LOCAL AND SUBSTITUTE AIRPORT PAIRS, INCLUDING THEIR INTERSTATE CONNECTIONS. ....................... 59 FIGURE 5-1. HEDONIC ATTITUDES ABOUT THE LONG-DISTANCE TRIP, BY DEMOGRAPHIC ................................................. 71 FIGURE 5-2 ATTITUDES TOWARD THE AUTO BY AGE, GENDER, AND INCOME ....................................................................... 72 FIGURE 5-3. ATTITUDES TOWARD CONGESTION ON STRESS ................................................................................................... 73 FIGURE 5-4. PREFERENCES ABOUT LONG-DISTANCE MODE .................................................................................................... 74 FIGURE 5-5. CONCERNS ABOUT THE AIR TRIP ............................................................................................................................. 75

x FIGURE 5-6. PREFERENCES FOR FLYING ..................................................................................................................................... 76 FIGURE 5-7. THE FIVE MARKET SEGMENTS REVEALED IN THE LATENT CLASS CLUSTERING ............................................ 78 FIGURE 5-8. CONCEPTUAL DIAGRAM OF THE ATTITUDE-BASED CHOICE MODEL ................................................................ 82 FIGURE 5-9. TOTAL STANDARDIZED EFFECT ON MODE CHOICE, RANK ORDERED BY ABSOLUTE VALUE (ICT = INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATIONS TECHNOLOGY) ............................................................................................................. 85 FIGURE 6-1 SCREENSHOT OF AN EXAMPLE OF A STATED PREFERENCE EXPERIMENT....................................................... 89 FIGURE 6-2. COMBINED FHWA MODEL WITH NEW ACRP AIRPORT CHOICE MODULE ......................................................... 101 LIST OF TABLES TABLE 1-1. OVERALL MODE OF LONG-DISTANCE TRIPS (2011) ................................................................................................... 4 TABLE 1-2. AIR AND AUTO MODE SHARE OF TRIPS OVER 100 MILES, BY DISTANCE .............................................................. 5 TABLE 1-3. NUMBER OF AIR TRIPS AND MODE SHARE FOR BASE CASE .................................................................................. 6 TABLE 1-4. AIR DEMAND CHANGE VS. BASE SCENARIO BY DISTANCE BAND ........................................................................ 13 TABLE 1-5. AIR DEMAND CHANGE, BY CENSUS NATIONAL REGION ........................................................................................ 13 TABLE 1-6. AIR DEMAND CHANGE AGAINST BASE SCENARIO, BY AIRPORT SIZE ................................................................. 14 TABLE 1-7. AN EXAMPLE OF A REGION WITH BOTH A DOMINANT AND SUBDOMINANT AIRPORTS.................................... 14 TABLE 1-8. A SMALLER AIRPORT IN A REGION WITH TWO LARGER HUBS ............................................................................ 14 TABLE 2-1. KEY CHANGES IN AIR TRIP MAKING RATES, 1995 VS 2016 .................................................................................... 26 TABLE 2-2. AUTO MODE SHARE OF LONG-DISTANCE TRIPS BY DISTANCE, 1995 VS 2011. ................................................. 33 TABLE 3-1. 2017 AIR TRIP COSTS ................................................................................................................................................... 42 TABLE 4-1. DEPARTURES PER YEAR AT THE SUBSTITUTE AIRPORT AND DEPARTURES AT THE LOCAL AIRPORT AS A PERCENTAGE OF DEPARTURES AT THE SUBSTITUTE AIRPORT. ............................................................................................. 61 TABLE 4-2. SHARE OF PASSENGERS WITHIN THE LOCAL AIRPORT CATCHMENT THAT ARE ESTIMATED TO PREFER A FLIGHT OPTION FROM THE LOCAL AIRPORT. ............................................................................................................................... 63 TABLE 4-3. DATA SOURCES FOR HIGHWAY AADT AND ESTIMATES OF HIGHWAY TRAFFIC ATTRIBUTED TO LEAKED PASSENGERS ACCESSING A SUBSTITUTE AIRPORT IN 2015. .................................................................................................... 64 TABLE 4-4. ADDITIONAL AIR TRIPS ATTRIBUTABLE TO NEW AIRCRAFT TECHNOLOGY ASSUMPTIONS .......................... 66 TABLE 6-1. VARIABLE INPUTS TO THE MMNL MODEL SIMULATOR ........................................................................................... 93 TABLE 6-2. BASE SCENARIO AND PERCENT CHANGE FOR ALL EARLY TESTING SCENARIOS ........................................... 93 TABLE 6-3. ESTIMATES RELATING TO EXPLANATORY VARIABLES HYBRID CHOICE MODEL .............................................. 97 TABLE 6-4. IMPLIED MONETARY VALUATIONS -HYBRID CHOICE MODEL ................................................................................ 98 TABLE 7-1. SIMULATED DECREASE IN AIR TRIPS AS A RESULT OF AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES ......................................... 104 TABLE 7-2 SIMULATED INCREASE IN AIR TRIPS AS A RESULT OF NEW SHORT DISTANCE FLIGHTS ............................... 106

xi PREFACE THE AUDIENCE FOR THIS REPORT The managers of smaller American airports, and the communities dedicated to support them, are facing a challenging business market. A national aviation business model in which coverage of many smaller airports by many national airlines was deemed essential for competition has largely been replaced by a business model in which only profit-making flight segments would be operated. With fewer major airlines now dominating the market, decisions to offer fewer short flights are challenged by fewer competitors. This report from the Airport Cooperative Research Program provides the first systematic examination of the major competitor to the trip by short distance flight – the trip by the privately driven automobile. MAJOR THEMES More competition from the car in the short trip The report is designed to help all members of the transportation planning and management community to understand the extent to which a higher dependence on the privately driven car has replaced or otherwise diminished the role of short distance feeder flights. This study has revealed that the role of the automobile in providing trips between 200 miles and 1000 miles in distance has radically changed since the base year in which our national long-distance data was last collected. Holding growth in the population aside, the amount of airplane seat-miles per capita has fallen drastically for the shorter air trip. At the same time, survey results show that while the share of short trips taken by air has fallen considerably, the amount of auto driving for long-distance tripmaking has increased. Accordingly, the report has created a wide variety of future market scenarios that would provide the backdrop for either an increase in short distance air passenger volumes, or a continued further decrease in them. More competition from the evolving automobile of the future The report also concludes that advocates of smaller airports should carefully monitor the evolution of private vehicles which are more and more benefitting from advanced information and communications technology, including higher levels of amenity within the vehicle and improved communications with other vehicles on the road. At its ultimate development, the The managers of smaller American airports, and the communities dedicated to support them, are facing a challenging business market. The amount of airplane seat-miles per capita has fallen drastically for the shorter air trip, while the amount of auto driving for long-distance tripmaking has increased.

xii advance vehicle would be self-driving, at which point the competition between car and air would take on dimensions entirely different from those of today. Possible futures which could impact the smaller airport The future mode share for air is not at all a given. With considerable historical volatility reported, this ACRP project created a base case and five possible scenarios to reflect a wide variety of possible futures. After the creation of a base case (trends extended), one pessimistic- for-air scenario was created in which the auto of the present evolves into an autonomous vehicle capable of undertaking long-distance trips. On the other hand, two scenarios are created to reflect conditions supportive of smaller American airports, including the possible use of future aircraft technology capable of lowering the costs of low and medium distance flight. One scenario predicts the future for continued dominance by large hub airports, and a final scenario looks at a maximum role for flying in general. Implications from the scenario testing More competition from the auto. Seen from the point of view of the airport operator, (and the smaller airport operator in several cases) the results demonstrate the volatility of the air market, with some scenarios exploring positive futures, and one very important scenario exploring a very negative future. The focus of the study on the competition from the automobile allows a detailed examination of the possibility of the present automobile evolving into a fully automated vehicle, perhaps in our lifetime. Implicit in this future is a competitor to the air trip which travels from door to door, in a private space where the driver could be entertained, stay connected and even sleep. Chapter 1 of this report shows that the impact of such a future would impact shorter airplane trips more than long, and smaller airports more than larger. More direct flights? From the perspective of the smaller airports, a desirable finding of the study is that if, for one reason or another, more direct short and medium distance flights could be operated between and among smaller airports, a sizable market could abandon the automobile and return to the air mode. While it is primarily the directness of the flights, and frequency of the flights that would be determinant, any improvement in aircraft technology that lowers the operating costs of small planes would support a resurgence in air use for the lower and moderate distance flight. Less leakage? In a parallel manner, the existence of more such direct air services could lessen the present pattern of “leakage” in which passengers drive a long distance to an airport with direct flights, abandoning the local airport which might be valued in terms of local economic development and other reasons. The report documents the present scale of leakage and provides quantified estimates of the impact of this airport-choice pattern on intercity highways. How modal decisions are made: implications for local marketing In the near term, advocates of smaller airports can take steps to better understand how the traveler presently makes decisions between the auto and the shorter distance flight. This could If, for one reason or another, more direct short and medium distance flights could be operated between and among smaller airports, a sizable market could abandon the automobile and return to the air mode.

xiii impact the content of local marketing efforts, which need to acknowledge the role of the car as a competitor. To improve the understanding of how consumers make this modal decision, the report utilizes a set of advanced research methods to document and model how values, preferences and attitudes affect the choice between intercity modes. These research results can help the reader to better understand the role of both “hard” (travel times and costs) and “soft” factors (attitudes and preferences). The report concludes that the traveler, while holding an underlying preference for the air, makes a basic tradeoff between the cost of the air trip weighed against the perceived discomfort of, and distaste for, the auto trip. In general, the report finds that the mode choices made are rational and understandable: while the air trip costs less per mile than the auto trip at distances over 1,500 miles, some 70% of travelers choose the air. While the cost per mile of the air trip under 700 miles is more than double the air cost for longer trips, some 70% of travelers choose the auto. The report documents in some detail how mode is influenced by the distance of the proposed trip and its interaction with variables such as income, purpose, party size, need for the auto at the non-home end of trip and the number of destinations within the tour. In each case the logic of the influence of each variable is evident from the data. The report documents that overwhelmingly, most American travelers would prefer to go by air were it not for the associated costs. Some 52% of the surveyed population fall into market segments with clear air preference, while only 24% fall into categories of clear auto preference. Perhaps surprisingly, the 2017 project survey data does not support any hypothesis that Americans find air travel significantly unpleasant, with even the experience of airport security not found to be particularly stressful by any of the demographic categories examined. Similarly, no meaningful demographic differences were found in the strong agreement with the statement that, “Compared to driving a car, I would be less tired and stressed if I took the trip by air.” Market variation by age. Local marketing efforts should take into consideration the fact that fundamental disagreement exists among demographic groups on matters such as the importance of private auto ownership, distaste for the long-distance trip, stress from the auto, and stress associated with airports and air tripmaking. In many cases, the group under 35 years of age expresses less tolerance for the long-distance auto trip than does the group older than 35. In short, the report documents that factors beyond times and costs are perceived differently by different groups and valued differently as well. Demographic differences are revealed in the reaction to the concept of the driverless car; most of those above 35 report they would not be likely to abandon the plane, while those under 35 take the opposite position. In the more immediate term, the study provides basic information that could be used in marketing efforts to build on known weaknesses in the preference for auto travel. The traveler, holding an underlying preference for the air, makes a basic tradeoff between the cost of the air trip weighed against the perceived discomfort of, and distaste for, the auto trip.

xiv Next steps The report ends with a set of conclusions concerning the need to refine and build upon key aspects of this research. It emphasizes the need for future multi-modal and intermodal analyses to coordinate closely with on-going improvements in the way we collect data describing automobile trip making – the key weak point in our present understanding of travel behavior. The study has documented the powerful attractions of the auto mode – both for the full trip and the accessing of a non-proximate airport. The results should be of value to those concerned with maintaining and developing the role of smaller airports in the United States: more research will be needed to support these programs. .

Next: Chapter 1. Summary and Major Findings: Understanding the Market Between Air and the Auto »
Air Demand in a Dynamic Competitive Context with the Automobile Get This Book
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TRB’s Airport Cooperative Research Program has released a pre-publication version of ACRP Research Report 204: Air Demand in a Dynamic Competitive Context with the Automobile. The report establishes a new approach to the analysis of future consumer demand for shorter distance air travel in comparison with travel by automobile.

According to the report, future demand for shorter-range airline trips is both volatile and unstable, affected by changes in technology as well as consumer preferences. Through application of new research tools that support scenario analysis, the report suggests that evolving automobile technology could diminish demand for shorter-range air trips, both in terms of distance to ultimate destination as well as access to larger airports.

Alternatively, changes in aircraft technology could increase demand for short-distance air travel by creating improvements that decrease operating cost of short flights. Most probably, the future will bring changes affected by both emerging trends.

The report may help managers of smaller airports develop a better understanding of how consumers choose between flying out of a smaller hometown airport to connect to a larger airport versus a longer automobile drive bypassing the smaller airport, traveling directly to a larger airport.

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